UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustafsson (September 21, 2013)

[Vaughany]

Why couldnt Jones kill himself in that Bentley accident.

[Luca Fury]

Money is of zero intrest, you packing up leaving town permanently however is since that'd mark two forums you are no longer part of and two places on the internet that is much better off.

If you're so butt hurt over me being here then just put me on your ignore list, problem solved. Betting on that is useless. I KNOW I will win, I want the stakes to be high. Too bad you're bitching out.

[Das Jax]

I went back and watched Gustaf's fights and, honestly, I'm not all that impressed. He had his moments in all of them (and obviously won them), but I didn't come away thinking he was some sort of elite striker. Jones, on the other hand, is some sort of savant. If it weren't enough that he's better standing (which is really all the Swede has going for him), he also has the option of dominating him on the ground. I'm sure Gustaf's ground game has improved since the Davis fight... but there's no way a few tips and tricks and a crash course in wrestling is going to trump Jones' pedigree. Frankly, I don't think this is even going to be close. Take Jones -380 ITD to the bank.

[plekz]

It'd be far from useless, since it'd mean you can't populate this forum anymore and going by the amount you post here it has value to you being able to do so.

Money can always be made back, you banished? not so much.

[sideloaded]

I went back and watched Gustaf's fights and, honestly, I'm not all that impressed. He had his moments in all of them (and obviously won them), but I didn't come away thinking he was some sort of elite striker. Jones, on the other hand, is some sort of savant. If it weren't enough that he's better standing (which is really all the Swede has going for him), he also has the option of dominating him on the ground. I'm sure Gustaf's ground game has improved since the Davis fight... but there's no way a few tips and tricks and a crash course in wrestling is going to trump Jones' pedigree. Frankly, I don't think this is even going to be close. Take Jones -380 ITD to the bank.

Savant at holding his hands out or throwing one or two shots? Rampage is a human punching bag and Jones didnt do much in that fight except cheap knee strikes. I dont get the hype on Jones stand up arsenal. His elbows on the ground are deadly. Only part of his striking that looks great.

Gus has dropped opponents with clean pin point striking multiple times in the UFC. Jones has never done that.

[mmaed]

Silva was rocked several times in 1 round, then 1 punch KO'd. Got rocked by everything Machida landed.

He also got dropped by a completely blocked headkick from Antonio Mendes.

Got rocked by Nedkov.

Got rocked by Gus.

So yeah, he gets rocked, dropped or KO'd in just about every fight. Pretty much everyone thinks his chin sucks except you.

Gotta give him credit for looking really mean though.

[Luca Fury]

It'd be far from useless, since it'd mean you can't populate this forum anymore and going by the amount you post here it has value to you being able to do so.

Money can always be made back, you banished? not so much.

You think I give a shit about my post count? Or posting here? LOL… I didn't post on here for like 5 months until recently starting again. You have far more posts per day than me and go in every single thread.

I wouldn't really care about having to leave if I lost the bet, but I will win. And when I do, having you leave is worthless to me. I don't give a shit. I wouldn't win anything. So why would I make a bet that I get nothing out of if I win? No point.

So again, I want to up the stakes but you refuse.

[MD]

I don't know that it's so much me being 'angry' that it is me having a very hard time to deal with childish bullshit or very apparent ignorance being thrown around. Why i have gotten on you massively for instance is because you give a impression of trying to make excuses for yourself when you fubar fumble your capping. Where i come from if you mess up, you stand there hat in hand and just accept the fact you f'ed up and then keep it moving.

I'll happily eat the fact that i capped the Ellenburger fight way off (i havent said different since either) but yeah i did cover my ass there with Rory by DEC aswell.

I'll happily eat the fact i capped Shogun v Chael way off aswell (havent said different since either) but it wont change the fact however that i decided to never play it, i am on european books (currently) and props there arent released until very late and ITD or KO/TKO for Shogun was what i was eyeing but upon reviewing tape saturday i opted out because of Shogun's knees (and having been thought a bad lesson by Vinnygate a few weeks earlier, where he sunk several parlays that only needed him to cash)

I have also said openly that JLau still eventhough i didn't play the Chael v Shogun fight ended up sinking my ship badly.

So if i can hone up to all this, why in gods name would i be dishonest about other stuff, that would make completly zero sense.

I'll also hone up to having a aggressive tone, but that's just the way i am as a person, i am a passionate individual in general and very emotionally driven. As for the people here the only guy i would truly take pleasure (and i mean pleasure) in beating the everliving shit out of is LF because he's a shady prick and i consider the 'premium podcast' thing they run borderline scamming.

End of the day i pity him though, because his massive ego is what will always stunt his growth and never make him really evolve as a capper.

------

For instance Urijah Hall showed already on TUF that he's a massive headcase with severe confidence issues, he also showed in several fights that he completly lacks killer instinct at times, unless things go completly the way he invisioned it in his head he freezes.

So when Howard came out all aggressive he didn't know how to react, and instead fell into some sort of weird sparring mode that just kept escalating.

I consider the above a VERY major thing that you never accounted for when you capped that fight, because i simply can't imagine someone doing that and still advocating a bet on Hall.

--------------

For Overeem you had a guy that basicly got run out of town @ LHW who had a track record stemming back to his earliest fighting days of always falling to pieces when pressured, in fact you wont be able to find a single fight where Overeem has battled back from adversity. On top of this he's never had good cardio @ HW always starts slowing down even before round 1 is over by 2 he's plodding and if it goes 3 he's a stationary target with his hands down by his waistline.

^ All of the above are MASSIVE red flags for me that simply can't be ignored either.

Did you really edit criticisms of my plays into your post after I pointed out the Hall play as an example of a bad play that I made, with the point being that everyone here messes up? The spirit of my post was "let's be friendly and beat the books bro, no need for all the arguing". It is unfortunate that that is what you decided to take from it.

Anyway, as for the discussion at hand, Gus's chin is iron. Probably the best at 205 right now. I do think that he's lacking in some areas technically on the feet, but the same issues that Machida gave Jones apply to Gustafsson, and while Gustafsson isn't the striker Machida is, he's also not dwarfed by Jones, which makes it a much more interesting fight. I will likely be taking the Gustafsson KO prop. Also, Dan Henderson in no way throws his right hand from one end of the Octagon to the other, he actually has really good technique with his right hand. He generates force through proper posture and positioning. He's not Hendricks or Ellenberger, just wildly flailing.

[sideloaded]

Lets look at Jones resume


Sonnen - Middleweight
Belfort - Middleweight
Evans - Boring fight Evans loses another boring fight to lil Nog
Machida - Middleweight
Jackson - Bellator level fighter
Rua - shot to shit coming off surgery
Bader - glass jawed can
Rest of wins against cans

[mmaed]

Might as well take gusaffson by ko of the night if your going to bet him by ko.

[Beelzebubzy]

Lets look at Jones resume


Sonnen - Middleweight
Belfort - Middleweight
Evans - Boring fight Evans loses another boring fight to lil Nog
Machida - Middleweight
Jackson - Bellator level fighter
Rua - shot to shit coming off surgery
Bader - glass jawed can
Rest of wins against cans

You forgot the TRUTH Brandoff Vera, Janitor in like 12 seconds, Hall of Famer Bonnar,

[mmaed]

Lets look at Jones resume


Sonnen - Middleweight
Belfort - Middleweight
Evans - Boring fight Evans loses another boring fight to lil Nog
Machida - Middleweight
Jackson - Bellator level fighter
Rua - shot to shit coming off surgery
Bader - glass jawed can
Rest of wins against cans

Its not fair to call machida a middleweight. He fought his entire career at light heavyweight and dominated a lot of fighters. Jackson did reasonably well at lighht heavyweight and i think he was on trt for their fight, rashad evans is a good fighter and so is everyone else on that list.

in addition it isnt just the fact that he beat these people, its the manner in which he did it. He choked machida unconscious, tapped out black belt belfort, tkod shogun, outwrestled bader, and so on. Theres a big difference between that and what gustaffson has done.

[plekz]

Did you really edit criticisms of my plays into your post after I pointed out the Hall play as an example of a bad play that I made, with the point being that everyone here messes up? The spirit of my post was "let's be friendly and beat the books bro, no need for all the arguing". It is unfortunate that that is what you decided to take from it.

Anyway, as for the discussion at hand, Gus's chin is iron. Probably the best at 205 right now. I do think that he's lacking in some areas technically on the feet, but the same issues that Machida gave Jones apply to Gustafsson, and while Gustafsson isn't the striker Machida is, he's also not dwarfed by Jones, which makes it a much more interesting fight. I will likely be taking the Gustafsson KO prop. Also, Dan Henderson in no way throws his right hand from one end of the Octagon to the other, he actually has really good technique with his right hand. He generates force through proper posture and positioning. He's not Hendricks or Ellenberger, just wildly flailing.

No, i had already done that before i saw your post. I figured if i was going to critique it would make sense to post examples of what i meant aswell. So i wasn't in any way shape or form trying to rip into you after the fact.

And regarding Hendo it was more so to point out the fact that is the only technique he has in his arsenal, where as Gustafsson has dropped people with all sorts of punches.

How high do you think Gustafsson KO/TKO will open?

[MD]

Lets look at Jones resume


Sonnen - Middleweight
Belfort - Middleweight
Evans - Boring fight Evans loses another boring fight to lil Nog
Machida - Middleweight
Jackson - Bellator level fighter
Rua - shot to shit coming off surgery
Bader - glass jawed can
Rest of wins against cans

You can do that with anyone's record, though. The only guy who can rival Jones skill-wise is GSP, who is probably slightly better at this point (considering that GSP is sort of past his prime now).

[MD]

No, i had already done that before i saw your post. I figured if i was going to critique it would make sense to post examples of what i meant aswell. So i wasn't in any way shape or form trying to rip into you after the fact.

And regarding Hendo it was more so to point out the fact that is the only technique he has in his arsenal, where as Gustafsson has dropped people with all sorts of punches.

How high do you think Gustafsson KO/TKO will open?

Henderson definitely only has one big punch (he has a lot of setups for it though), but that one punch is done to perfection. No question that Gus is more diverse.

Gus by KO will probably be around +780 I imagine.

[sideloaded]

You can do that with anyone's record, though. The only guy who can rival Jones skill-wise is GSP, who is probably slightly better at this point (considering that GSP is sort of past his prime now).

when did GSP start fighting lightweights?

[sideloaded]

Its not fair to call machida a middleweight. He fought his entire career at light heavyweight and dominated a lot of fighters. Jackson did reasonably well at lighht heavyweight and i think he was on trt for their fight, rashad evans is a good fighter and so is everyone else on that list.

in addition it isnt just the fact that he beat these people, its the manner in which he did it. He choked machida unconscious, tapped out black belt belfort, tkod shogun, outwrestled bader, and so on. Theres a big difference between that and what gustaffson has done.

Considering the shape of shogun, Gus beat him far worse than Jones did who gassed just laying on shogun pounding on him. Gus's wins are better against similar opponents. He's not black or has a hype machine pushing him so of course he's not a "savant" or "p4p"

Shogun was dropped in the first by Gus and was tko'd standing by body shots in the 3rd but Gus didnt jump on him to stop the fight.

[Luca Fury]

Henderson definitely only has one big punch (he has a lot of setups for it though), but that one punch is done to perfection. No question that Gus is more diverse.

Gus by KO will probably be around +780 I imagine.

Probably a little lower. Gus on the ML is +550 and him ITD is only 70 cents better at +620, so TKO will probably be around +700 once they open all the props. All the lines for current props get a little better when they open more, so could see that open at +675ish then move to +700ish once the other props open.

[plekz]

Henderson definitely only has one big punch (he has a lot of setups for it though), but that one punch is done to perfection. No question that Gus is more diverse.

Gus by KO will probably be around +780 I imagine.

I'll prolly roll that to build a couple of future parlays for fun, and throw in Cain , Weidman + GSP aswell. + Belfort if lines are up (only place i have seen that has odds out is Betsafe for that fight)

Plus a Barao ITD if it looks good, since i think he's going to buzzsaw poor Wineland completly.

On this card i like Jury to DEC Ricci , Meathead to KO Schaub , Khabib to DEC Healy , and Costa to hopefully put Carmont's lights out.

[mmaed]

when did GSP start fighting lightweights?

He has actually said that if he changd weight classes he would go down to lightweight.

[sideloaded]

Machida never cut weight and weighed in under 205 almost every time. He's a middleweight giving Jones a huge size advantage considering he is a natural HW like Gus who cuts down. The point is Jones had a huge size advantage he wont have against Gus.

[sideloaded]

He has actually said that if he changd weight classes he would go down to lightweight.

Stop trolling GSP is 190 lbs. He says that bullshit to duck Silva. END. OF. STORY.

[MD]

when did GSP start fighting lightweights?

Uh, when he fought BJ Penn. Or when he knocked out a bantamweight in Ivan Menjivar.

I'll prolly roll that to build a couple of future parlays for fun, and throw in Cain , Weidman + GSP aswell. + Belfort if lines are up (only place i have seen that has odds out is Betsafe for that fight)

Plus a Barao ITD if it looks good, since i think he's going to buzzsaw poor Wineland completly.

On this card i like Jury to DEC Ricci , Meathead to KO Schaub , Khabib to DEC Healy , and Costa to hopefully put Carmont's lights out.

I think that Khabib is going to KO Healy, and I think Barao is wildly overvalued. 'Capped him at -250.

[plekz]

I think that Khabib is going to KO Healy, and I think Barao is wildly overvalued. 'Capped him at -250.

I'm not on the Khabib train fully yet, iv'e already boarded the Rustam train.

As far as Barao i think him , Faber & Cruz are going to be bouncing around each other at the top of that weighclass for a while yet with the others just a notch below.

[sideloaded]

Uh, when he fought BJ Penn. Or when he knocked out a bantamweight in Ivan Menjivar.



I think that Khabib is going to KO Healy, and I think Barao is wildly overvalued. 'Capped him at -250.

Bj was a champ at 170 and that fight was ages ago

[Luca Fury]

Bj was a champ at 170 and that fight was ages ago

If BJ counts at a welterweight because he was champ there despite having a sub .500 record while also always weighing in well under the limit, Lyoto Machida counts as a LHW for being the champ there, weighing right on the limit and holding a division record of 19-4.

You can't say Machida isn't a LHW but BJ is a welterweight.

[Beelzebubzy]

Uh, when he fought BJ Penn. Or when he knocked out a bantamweight in Ivan Menjivar.



I think that Khabib is going to KO Healy, and I think Barao is wildly overvalued. 'Capped him at -250.

Love the over on wineland and barao.
I
think barao is quicker. Am I crazy?

[Luca Fury]

Love the over on wineland and barao.
I
think barao is quicker. Am I crazy?

WHineland will be competitive but then gas and get finished, but not until the 3rd round or later, IMO. I'm thinking the 4th. I like the over too. Plus Barao has trouble with lanky opponents (McDonald, Esvovedo) which is what Eddie is, so that should help Whineland survive until at least the over hits.

[mmaed]

WHineland will be competitive but then gas and get finished, but not until the 3rd round or later, IMO. I'm thinking the 4th. I like the over too. Plus Barao has trouble with lanky opponents (McDonald, Esvovedo) which is what Eddie is, so that should help Whineland survive until at least the over hits.

I wouldnt be suprised to see a fourth or fifth round submission win for pegado again. Probably fifth if wineland gets tired enoug. I think the skill difference on the ground will be pronounced enough. Of course wineland might have the gas.

[The iron sheik]

Love the over on wineland and barao.
I
think barao is quicker. Am I crazy?

On over and Barao too. Want to cuddle/spoon?

[Luca Fury]

On over and Barao too. Want to cuddle/spoon?

How about a threesome?

[The iron sheik]

If we can negotiate who gets the middle spot, of course.

[Vaughany]

How about a threesome?

No chance, Nick wont want to share you!

[varkolek]

It'd be far from useless, since it'd mean you can't populate this forum anymore and going by the amount you post here it has value to you being able to do so.

Money can always be made back, you banished? not so much.

Why get so concerned with something you can't control? This forum is full of crazies, it's the twilight zone in here. Trying to figure out who the multiple accounts are, or follow the ridiculous arguments is a waste of time. It's not even worth thinking about.

[varkolek]

Machida never cut weight and weighed in under 205 almost every time. He's a middleweight giving Jones a huge size advantage considering he is a natural HW like Gus who cuts down. The point is Jones had a huge size advantage he wont have against Gus.

This is irrelevant aside from the reach advantage Jones has over all LHWs. Machida didn't cut weight but was strong enough to stuff take downs from almost all wrestlers, and explosive enough to sumo-shove Silva to the ground where he got knocked out.

I'm actually sad to see Machida cutting to MW especially at this age, due to getting on the wrong end of decisions. I like seeing people win who don't cut weight.