UFC Fight Night: Shogun Vs Sonnen (August 17, 2013)

[gabe]

Example of margin of safety would be gabe not playing something +280 that should be +180 as a ~9% edge isn't enough to warrant a bet.

What's the point in saying "no, you're wrong" if you're not willing to expand on it btw?

Finally, you said MD would PM me to hold my 'noob' hands. Judging by this I think he agrees with my stance on value -

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/522565-vaughanys-mma-picks-p316.html#post19264822

Been called a noob twice now for posting what I consider simple bet theory. I should go back to lurking

You're an idiot. Truly. I said I wouldn't bet a +280 line I thought should be +180 because I was being very selective and limited with the bets I made. Ultimately, I thought it was a losing bet, so I didn't wanna take the gamble. Seriously, what a dunce this kid is.

[gabe]

I guess so! Not used to my conversations going -

"Here's an opinion!"
"You're wrong, noob"
"Why?"
"..."

it went more like this:

"here's an insult from a douche who likes to sound smart on the internet!"

"gtfo puto"

[gabe]

Yeah SBR is pretty dumb if you think about it. "Here are all my thoughts about a fight, now everyone can read it." If you did have an edge you dont now because you just made all your info public.

Not betting something EV just happened on this shit hole. The greek obviously released a bad/highly EV line. Betting it knowing it was going to get reversed or at a crappier book they might have free rolled you. Now greek has your account labeled as a shot taker and you've just drawn unwanted attention to yourself. Then to top it of you publicly flash all the blinkers and post about the bad line on forum. Just retarded.

But most shit on SBR is retarded. There is zero benefit in posting anything public on here. If you think Hall's opener is dumb, wait it out, keep quiet and get as much down as you can when limits are raised.

Helping others be smarter gamblers is improving the market against you and taking away all the low hanging fruit. Zero reason to post anything worthwhile on SBR.

lol sbr you're the biggest hypocrit... you're always the first to share any insight you know... true, you're not doing it to help other gamblers because you don't wanna do that, you're doing it for the attention it'll get ya

i find it funny that you're talking about not sharing info when you're the first person who comes to mind when i think about forum members sharing info

[gabe]

Mike M and Pickett i see no reason this fight should be first. Somebody with a clue needs to help the UFC brass make matches and learn how to put them in order. These two should produce a fight of the night type of fight. Heck i think it might be the best fight on the card. Why waste it first? What if it is fight of the night. Now the new fans are gonna expect all the fights to be this good. I just don't get it. I guess they think it will be a great fight and it will carry u to watch the whole card but when u see a great fight it is hard to top it. The nite starts getting dull because the first thing u witness was a super fight.

it's not first, it's not even on the main card, bud.

[sideloaded]

lol sbr you're the biggest hypocrit... you're always the first to share any insight you know... true, you're not doing it to help other gamblers because you don't wanna do that, you're doing it for the attention it'll get ya

i find it funny that you're talking about not sharing info when you're the first person who comes to mind when i think about forum members sharing info

slow your roll son. Quick to insult me. Check back in the wsof thread. I posted I had an angle on the JZ vs Tyson fight. Never posted it then shared the info privately with ArchieUD. We won big. Others and I have been pm'ing back in forth winnerz all week on something other than mma. Something that we will never tell the board about. Just because I posted some ridiculous openers for events with small limits doesnt mean Im posting all my good shit.

Call me bipolar, you show up calling me names after emailing me all happy and shit. Done with you.

[JustinOpinion]

I see Gabe's a well adjusted chap

[mirinquads]

The reasons his opponents gassed out have nothing to do with him... in fact, his opponents were winning until they gassed out, aside from Thompson who gassed out after throwing one leg kick because he had an awful cut. So yea, think again, bud.

Lulz at least your ramblings are entertaining, breh.

[sideloaded]

gabe what is your problem with me? Wanted to be all my friend when I bet my car on mcmann. Then you completely changed and want me banned now.

You're just a joke now lashing out at the only people that supported you.

[gabe]

slow your roll son. Quick to insult me. Check back in the wsof thread. I posted I had an angle on the JZ vs Tyson fight. Never posted it then shared the info privately with ArchieUD. We won big. Others and I have been pm'ing back in forth winnerz all week on something other than mma. Something that we will never tell the board about. Just because I posted some ridiculous openers for events with small limits doesnt mean Im posting all my good shit.

Call me bipolar, you show up calling me names after emailing me all happy and shit. Done with you.

Was your angle that he would be getting his ass kicked until A) luckily finding himself in a lucky position and B) getting a bad ref stoppage.

Emailing you all happy and shit? lol wtf... ain't callin you names son, if you can't take ball bustin from a buddy then you're dead to me.

[sideloaded]

Was your angle that he would be getting his ass kicked until A) luckily finding himself in a lucky position and B) getting a bad ref stoppage.

Emailing you all happy and shit? lol wtf... ain't callin you names son, if you can't take ball bustin from a buddy then you're dead to me.

lol at me trying to get attention. I haven't bumped my thread in weeks and before that it was dead for 2 months. YOU on the other hand write dumb shit over and over that we told you makes you look dumb and go on twitter promoting the shit out of yourself because you want to be the next mma celebrity. Sad you went Hollywood because it will all blow up in your face. I dont want to see you lose your job but there are people out there who care a lot less about you than your friends here.


Remember this post in a few months.

Funny you want me banned when I worked with illmatick to get you unbanned.

[sideloaded]

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Mike Pyle +145 — I think he should be -160 so I see enough value in this line to recommend a small-to-moderate play. — The Pyle by Decision prop will likely be worth a bet, too, as I expect it to be anywhere between +350 and +750. There will definitely be value there.

let me guess. If it loses it will be a small play and the decision prop wont be counted since it was a lean. If he wins it was a moderate play and if the decision somehow hits that will be counted as a win.


gabe you're caricature of yourself. Finally writing good comedy though. If this oddsbreaker doesnt work out there is always suicide.

[getlucky2win]

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Uriah Hall -515 — I recommend parlaying it with Joe Lauzon -260 to drop the juice from -515 all the way down to -154.

[PunisherIND]

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Uriah Hall -515 — I recommend parlaying it with Joe Lauzon -260 to drop the juice from -515 all the way down to -154.

you cant accuse gabe of being inconsistent

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ray Sefo -280 — I think the line is accurate so I don’t see much value in it, but I do recommend a small bet. Possibly in a parlay with Tyrone Spong -1500, which will knock the juice from -280 all the way down to -224.

[gabe]

Lulz at least your ramblings are entertaining, breh.

He got his ass kicked by Mein in the first round then Mein gassed out and was easily TKO'd... This forum needs people like you who don't know what they're talking about. Would be anarchy if everybody here was knowledgeable in MMA.

[gabe]

gabe what is your problem with me? Wanted to be all my friend when I bet my car on mcmann. Then you completely changed and want me banned now.

You're just a joke now lashing out at the only people that supported you.

who lashed out at you? who wants you banned? what are you talking about, dummy?

i wanted to be your friend? lol you're funny dude. i've been your friend but i never "wanted" to be your friend... and i've still been your friend in this thread, not my fault you can't handle having your balls busted.

btw- thanks for living up to your word on what you said you'd do if mcmann won

[gabe]

lol at me trying to get attention. I haven't bumped my thread in weeks and before that it was dead for 2 months. YOU on the other hand write dumb shit over and over that we told you makes you look dumb and go on twitter promoting the shit out of yourself because you want to be the next mma celebrity. Sad you went Hollywood because it will all blow up in your face. I dont want to see you lose your job but there are people out there who care a lot less about you than your friends here.


Remember this post in a few months.

Funny you want me banned when I worked with illmatick to get you unbanned.

i dont want you banned lol dude you sound like a lunatic in everything you're saying; like i've told you before, GET HELP

i said your TUF spoiler was ban-worthy, i didn't say i want you banned.

[gabe]

Love my fans. Follow my every post.

I know I sure as hell wouldn't be reading what any of you (besides md and sider) would have to say.

It's good to know that you guys tail me, even though you won't admit it. 15-5 w/ my pick articles. 75% =)

[MD]

He got his ass kicked by Mein in the first round then Mein gassed out and was easily TKO'd... This forum needs people like you who don't know what they're talking about. Would be anarchy if everybody here was knowledgeable in MMA.

...

[gabe]

...

Mein hurt him and nearly finished him. Poor fight IQ got in his way.

Am I the only person here that watched that fight?

[MD]

Mein hurt him and nearly finished him. Poor fight IQ got in his way.

Am I the only person here that watched that fight?

You're probably the only person here who watched the fight and thought Mein kicked Brown's ass in R1.

[Mercersux]

You're probably the only person here who watched the fight and thought Mein kicked Brown's ass in R1.

I don't remember fully but maybe it was the second round Mein caught Brown with a nasty body shot guy was a second away from crumbling. Can't remember if it was first or second round tho.

[MD]

I don't remember fully but maybe it was the second round Mein caught Brown with a nasty body shot guy was a second away from crumbling. Can't remember if it was first or second round tho.

He did drop Brown, and had him hurt very badly, but Mein was an absolute mess after the first round, and Brown pretty clearly won it.

[Mercersux]

He did drop Brown, and had him hurt very badly, but Mein was an absolute mess after the first round, and Brown pretty clearly won it.

Yeah aside from the body shot Brown was winning exchanges and eventually broke Mein down.

[gabe]

You're probably the only person here who watched the fight and thought Mein kicked Brown's ass in R1.

You're right, hurting your opponent and nearly FINISHING him isn't the same as kicking his ass...

[gabe]

He did drop Brown, and had him hurt very badly, but Mein was an absolute mess after the first round, and Brown pretty clearly won it.

You're saying what I said. Brown was losing until Mein became "an absolute mess"/gassed out/adrenaline dump

Seriously dude, did you have to throw yourself into this one? All you did is prove my point.

[eligibletackle]

Mein gassed or had an adrenaline dump? Both guys got punched a lot. I just think that's a crappy way to discount Brown.

When was the last time Pyle fought somebody w/ the KO ability of Brown? Ellenberger's demolition? Pyle is 37 w/ a bunch of fight miles on him. If the fight ends w/ Pyle face down ass up - will he be considered another can for Brown? If Brown wins - how will you find a way to somehow discredit it when capping Brown's next fight?

[gabe]

Mein gassed or had an adrenaline dump? Both guys got punched a lot. I just think that's a crappy way to discount Brown.

When was the last time Pyle fought somebody w/ the KO ability of Brown? Ellenberger's demolition? Pyle is 37 w/ a bunch of fight miles on him. If the fight ends w/ Pyle face down ass up - will he be considered another can for Brown? If Brown wins - how will you find a way to somehow discredit it when capping Brown's next fight?

His last fight. Rick Story is more powerful than Matt Brown.

I'm not discrediting Brown, exactly. I'm just saying his win streak isn't as great in my eyes as it is in yours. I think he's gotten very lucky.

Same goes for Pyle. He's gotten lucky in all his recent fights.

That said, I think Pyle is the fighter who should be the small favorite, so at dog odds, he's the one worth the play.

Pyle by Decision is close to +500 and I'm diggin' that line

[Mercersux]

His last fight. Rick Story is more powerful than Matt Brown.

I'm not discrediting Brown, exactly. I'm just saying his win streak isn't as great in my eyes as it is in yours. I think he's gotten very lucky.

Same goes for Pyle. He's gotten lucky in all his recent fights.

That said, I think Pyle is the fighter who should be the small favorite, so at dog odds, he's the one worth the play.

Pyle by Decision is close to +500 and I'm diggin' that line

At first glance I'd agree with you. Surprisingly Story only has 4 career ko/tko's to Matt Brown's 10. I'll never forget the time Story pulled off an arm triangle in full guard. Now that takes some serious strength.

[eligibletackle]

yeah Story could probably beat a lot of MWs & LHWs in a strongman competition but he's not a guy where you worry about the KO abilities & instincts - he's anti-roy nelson.

My preferred method to discredit Pyle is b/c of this resurgence at 37 after such a stretch of mediocrity. Outside of age - the same can be said about Brown. The difference is, Pyle was a complete fighter during his mediocrity and things just didn't seem to click. When Brown was a .500% fighter in the UFC he had a really low fight IQ, subpar TDD and unrefined technique. Brown still shows signs of all those - he's no world-beater. Who's more likely the regress though? The guy who's been fighting since 1999 and has hit his ceiling? Or the one who exhibits marginal improvements between fights? Both guys have been outperforming themselves as of late - I just think that's Pyle's streak is fluke-ier as he's been winning in more uncharacteristic fashion w/ those 3 consecutive 1rd KOs. It's not a great analogy, but Brown's streak would be more suspect if there were some flash submission wins in there. Brown's been winning via his bread & butter - and that's something I like to bet on. I'll admit Pyle has beaten higher quality opponents than Brown as of late (I guess?)- but Pyle didn't just learn how to throw leather a year ago - things went his way in those fights.

Sorry - I don't even have a large position on Brown - but using Mein & adrenaline dump to argue in favor for Pyle here? I didn't care for that.

[plekz]

His last fight. Rick Story is more powerful than Matt Brown.

One word for you broham, STYLES make fights, standing Brown is better both in the clinch and on the feet, Pyle has the edge on the ground, however the way Pyle get's it there is through clinch trips, he doesn't shoot doubles or anything like that.

Also a CAGE WALL was what kept Pyle from being KTFO against Story, Story connects a few inches further to the middle of the cage and Pyle's head would have bounced against the canvas instead of having the wall break his fall.

And Mein didn't 'adrenaline dump' you clown, they beat the shit out of eachother that whole first round, except Brown did the more overall damage and Mein wasn't as durable as Brown is, there's a reason Brown has never been KO/TKO'd in his career cuz he's extremely durable.

[gabe]

At first glance I'd agree with you. Surprisingly Story only has 4 career ko/tko's to Matt Brown's 10. I'll never forget the time Story pulled off an arm triangle in full guard. Now that takes some serious strength.

Look at Rick Story's opposition and look at Matt Brown's... You don't think Rick Story could KO Chris Cope and Luis Ramos? LOL Fact of the matter is Rick Story is arguably the hardest puncher at 170 (along with Johny Hendricks) and Matt Brown isn't. This is according to people who fight and train with them.

[gabe]

One word for you broham, STYLES make fights, standing Brown is better both in the clinch and on the feet, Pyle has the edge on the ground, however the way Pyle get's it there is through clinch trips, he doesn't shoot doubles or anything like that.

Also a CAGE WALL was what kept Pyle from being KTFO against Story, Story connects a few inches further to the middle of the cage and Pyle's head would have bounced against the canvas instead of having the wall break his fall.

And Mein didn't 'adrenaline dump' you clown, they beat the shit out of eachother that whole first round, except Brown did the more overall damage and Mein wasn't as durable as Brown is, there's a reason Brown has never been KO/TKO'd in his career cuz he's extremely durable.

Matt Brown is not better than Mike Pyle in the clinch, as Mike Pyle has the muay thai experience and a very good thai clinch... get your facts straight, holmes.

Brown could have been TKO'd easily if his opponents had been there. Stephen Thompson could have finished him easily if he hadn't been the first 23 year old in history to gas after 1 leg kick.

[gabe]

yeah Story could probably beat a lot of MWs & LHWs in a strongman competition but he's not a guy where you worry about the KO abilities & instincts - he's anti-roy nelson.

My preferred method to discredit Pyle is b/c of this resurgence at 37 after such a stretch of mediocrity. Outside of age - the same can be said about Brown. The difference is, Pyle was a complete fighter during his mediocrity and things just didn't seem to click. When Brown was a .500% fighter in the UFC he had a really low fight IQ, subpar TDD and unrefined technique. Brown still shows signs of all those - he's no world-beater. Who's more likely the regress though? The guy who's been fighting since 1999 and has hit his ceiling? Or the one who exhibits marginal improvements between fights? Both guys have been outperforming themselves as of late - I just think that's Pyle's streak is fluke-ier as he's been winning in more uncharacteristic fashion w/ those 3 consecutive 1rd KOs. It's not a great analogy, but Brown's streak would be more suspect if there were some flash submission wins in there. Brown's been winning via his bread & butter - and that's something I like to bet on. I'll admit Pyle has beaten higher quality opponents than Brown as of late (I guess?)- but Pyle didn't just learn how to throw leather a year ago - things went his way in those fights.

Sorry - I don't even have a large position on Brown - but using Mein & adrenaline dump to argue in favor for Pyle here? I didn't care for that.

WHAT?? I never argued in favor of Brown. In fact, I said anybody who is betting big on this fight is a fool. I only said I am not as impressed with his 5 fight winning streak as the rest of you seem to be.

[gabe]

If you watched Brown vs Mein and after round 1 it wasn't obvious that Mein was done and was about to get KTFO'd, then you have no business analyzing upcoming MMA bouts. If you're too blind to see THAT, then it's most wise to not share your thoughts on here.

[Vaughany]

Immortal is my boiii, but Pyle's grappling in theory is on another level to Brown's. Brown hasnt fought anybody during his winning streak who offered anywhere near the threat Pyle does.