UFC Fight Night: Shogun Vs Sonnen (August 17, 2013)

[JustinOpinion]

If you're going to try to school someone, you should make sure you are correct first.

What's incorrect? Kelly staking simplified is scaling your stake based on edge and probability of occurrence. If you're not altering your stake based on the edge in the bet and the probability of the desired outcome, there has to be a misunderstanding somewhere.

I'm not really trying to school him either, I'd rather he stay betting as he does, but when called a noob for suggesting you bet when you see value I take offence.

[sideloaded]

This is completely wrong

If there's value in a bet it is a bet. If there isn't, it isn't.

I'm sure you will be getting a pm from MD shortly about it. He loves to improve the market against himself by holding n00b's hands.

Btw that private video i pm'd around had 20 views and one from Ireland so Im sure one you rat bastards leaked it to MD

[Grabaka]

what video cabron?

[sideloaded]

what video cabron?

meng, your memory is bad I pm'd twice about it

[Grabaka]

AAhhh that one...yes yes. Also my memory sucks i knowwwww amigo

[MD]

What's incorrect? Kelly staking simplified is scaling your stake based on edge and probability of occurrence. If you're not altering your stake based on the edge in the bet and the probability of the desired outcome, there has to be a misunderstanding somewhere.

I'm not really trying to school him either, I'd rather he stay betting as he does, but when called a noob for suggesting you bet when you see value I take offence.

You are incorrect in this assertion, also. Kelly staking is not a matter of edge, it's a matter of maximizing bankroll growth. More value -> bigger bet, is not the way to optimize bankroll growth.

Anyway, yeah, Gabe tends to do that. His gambling fundamentals aren't very good (still love you though Gabe <3).

This is completely wrong



I'm sure you will be getting a pm from MD shortly about it. He loves to improve the market against himself by holding n00b's hands.

Btw that private video i pm'd around had 20 views and one from Ireland so Im sure one you rat bastards leaked it to MD

I never saw whatever video you're speaking about.

[JustinOpinion]

You are incorrect in this assertion, also. Kelly staking is not a matter of edge, it's a matter of maximizing bankroll growth. More value -> bigger bet, is not the way to optimize bankroll growth.

That's why it's 'in relation to the probability of the event'. Combination of edge and increased probability. 5% edge on something that's 95% to happen will result in a bigger stake than 5% edge on something that's 15% to happen. But a 10% edge on something that's 15% to happen is bigger than 5% edge on the same 15% event...

As far as I can see you're taking it as me saying just edge, which I'm not.

[JustinOpinion]

This is completely wrong



I'm sure you will be getting a pm from MD shortly about it. He loves to improve the market against himself by holding n00b's hands.

Btw that private video i pm'd around had 20 views and one from Ireland so Im sure one you rat bastards leaked it to MD

If there isn't value (an edge, the event is more likely than the implied probability) in a bet, you shouldn't be betting it. You think that's wrong?

[sideloaded]

If there isn't value (an edge, the event is more likely than the implied probability) in a bet, you shouldn't be betting it. You think that's wrong?

the other way round. Just because there is value doesnt mean you should bet it

[sideloaded]

You are incorrect in this assertion, also. Kelly staking is not a matter of edge, it's a matter of maximizing bankroll growth. More value -> bigger bet, is not the way to optimize bankroll growth.

Anyway, yeah, Gabe tends to do that. His gambling fundamentals aren't very good (still love you though Gabe <3).



I never saw whatever video you're speaking about.

i got the analytics right here in front of me. Are you saying you live in the UK and NOT Ireland?

[JustinOpinion]

the other way round. Just because there is value doesnt mean you should bet it

I disagree. Obviously it has to go hand in hand with kelly or a similar way of staking where you're not going to be staking the same sort of amounts on a tiny edge as on a huge edge.

If the argument is about 'margin of safety', well, that's silly. If, for example, you have to have at least a 5% edge to bet something you're throwing away profitable opportunities all the way to 0%. If you need your 5% because anything less doesn't seem to be making you money then you don't have a 5% edge on your 'at least 5%' bets, your calculations are out and your edge is overrated.

[sideloaded]

I disagree. Obviously it has to go hand in hand with kelly or a similar way of staking where you're not going to be staking the same sort of amounts on a tiny edge as on a huge edge.

If the argument is about 'margin of safety', well, that's silly. If, for example, you have to have at least a 5% edge to bet something you're throwing away profitable opportunities all the way to 0%. If you need your 5% because anything less doesn't seem to be making you money then you don't have a 5% edge on your 'at least 5%' bets, your calculations are out and your edge is overrated.

nothing to do with margin of safety, i dont even know wtf that is

[MD]

That's why it's 'in relation to the probability of the event'. Combination of edge and increased probability. 5% edge on something that's 95% to happen will result in a bigger stake than 5% edge on something that's 15% to happen. But a 10% edge on something that's 15% to happen is bigger than 5% edge on the same 15% event...

As far as I can see you're taking it as me saying just edge, which I'm not.

What I take issue with is this statement:

"Kelly staking simplified is scaling your stake based on edge and probability of occurrence."

Which is silly. Your edge is predicated on the probability of an event occurring. Your edge is the perceived true odds of an event occurring, being compared to the market odds. And Kelly staking is not a matter of edge, as has been stated, it's a matter of maximizing bankroll growth. You seem to realize this from your last post, so I'm not sure if you just worded the above quote badly. If that is your understanding of Kelly, though, you're incorrect.

[MD]

i got the analytics right here in front of me. Are you saying you live in the UK and NOT Ireland?

No, Sider, I'm saying I didn't see your video.

[JustinOpinion]

nothing to do with margin of safety, i dont even know wtf that is

Example of margin of safety would be gabe not playing something +280 that should be +180 as a ~9% edge isn't enough to warrant a bet.

What's the point in saying "no, you're wrong" if you're not willing to expand on it btw?

Finally, you said MD would PM me to hold my 'noob' hands. Judging by this I think he agrees with my stance on value -

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/522565-vaughanys-mma-picks-p316.html#post19264822

Been called a noob twice now for posting what I consider simple bet theory. I should go back to lurking

[sideloaded]

Example of margin of safety would be gabe not playing something +280 that should be +180 as a ~9% edge isn't enough to warrant a bet.

What's the point in saying "no, you're wrong" if you're not willing to expand on it btw?

Finally, you said MD would PM me to hold my 'noob' hands. Judging by this I think he agrees with my stance on value -

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/522565-vaughanys-mma-picks-p316.html#post19264822

Been called a noob twice now for posting what I consider simple bet theory. I should go back to lurking

not this shit again

[MD]

Example of margin of safety would be gabe not playing something +280 that should be +180 as a ~9% edge isn't enough to warrant a bet.

What's the point in saying "no, you're wrong" if you're not willing to expand on it btw?

Finally, you said MD would PM me to hold my 'noob' hands. Judging by this I think he agrees with my stance on value -

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/522565-vaughanys-mma-picks-p316.html#post19264822

Been called a noob twice now for posting what I consider simple bet theory. I should go back to lurking

There's no point in taking it personally when people insult you on SBR. It's gonna happen, I try to see the humorous side of it.

[JustinOpinion]

What I take issue with is this statement:

"Kelly staking simplified is scaling your stake based on edge and probability of occurrence."

Which is silly. Your edge is predicated on the probability of an event occurring. Your edge is the perceived true odds of an event occurring, being compared to the market odds. And Kelly staking is not a matter of edge, as has been stated, it's a matter of maximizing bankroll growth. You seem to realize this from your last post, so I'm not sure if you just worded the above quote badly. If that is your understanding of Kelly, though, you're incorrect.

Edge - the amount the line is off
Probability of occurrence - the true probability of the event

Kelly staking uses both of these to come up with optimal % of BR to stake (obv then going 1/4, 1/2 or whatever you want).

So, what I meant but mustn't have gotten across is that "bet size should be related to the amount the line is off, along with the true probability of the event". That's what kelly does, but the description was intended to leave it open to many types of staking. Any type of staking that does not determine stake based on probability of the event and how far out it is from the line is not a good one. I hope that makes sense / is clear.

[JustinOpinion]

There's no point in taking it personally when people insult you on SBR. It's gonna happen, I try to see the humorous side of it.

I guess so! Not used to my conversations going -

"Here's an opinion!"
"You're wrong, noob"
"Why?"
"..."

[sideloaded]

I guess so! Not used to my conversations going -

"Here's an opinion!"
"You're wrong, noob"
"Why?"
"..."

you must not hang around gambling people. Because breaking off nuggets and improving other gamblers habits and thoughts actually hurts us.

[JustinOpinion]

you must not hang around gambling people. Because breaking off nuggets and improving other gamblers habits and thoughts actually hurts us.

Oh I know. Same applied to gabe -

I'm not really trying to school him either, I'd rather he stay betting as he does, but when called a noob for suggesting you bet when you see value I take offence.

You tell me I'm wrong and call me a noob and I'm gonna explain myself and ask where someone is coming from. I don't want the guy to modify his understanding if he's wrong, but I want to hear the counter argument. You never know, I might learn something.

I don't really care about talking about theory publicly though, but you won't see me breaking down fights.

[MD]

Edge - the amount the line is off
Probability of occurrence - the true probability of the event


Kelly staking uses both of these to come up with optimal % of BR to stake (obv then going 1/4, 1/2 or whatever you want).


So, what I meant but mustn't have gotten across is that "bet size should be related to the amount the line is off, along with the true probability of the event". That's what kelly does, but the description was intended to leave it open to many types of staking. Any type of staking that does not determine stake based on probability of the event and how far out it is from the line is not a good one. I hope that makes sense / is clear.

This is also incorrect. Kelly staking size is also influenced heavily by the market odds of the wager, not just the true probability. Try calculating optimal staking size for a +100000000 line that you think wins 80% of the time.

[Thor4140]

u know what i find funny with all this percentage crap or value crap and it is just that, crap. If someone is gonna cheat ya u can stick all that mumbo jumbo bullbleep right up ur ass. I remember when i was naive and thought all these sports were on the up and up. I use to study like crazy, fill out my football pools, and than go 0-4 . A friend once told me that he handicapped a game for 36 straight hours and lost by 40 points Fellas if a judge is gonna screw ya or an NFL ref is gonna throw a flag at game changing moments, all the amount of figuring this stuff out won't do ya dik. In and honest world what you guys do would have a ton of merit. We don't live in an honest world. It don't matter what it is. If there is big money involved there will always be corruption. You want some real advice? Learn to read a line.

[sideloaded]

Oh I know. Same applied to gabe -



You tell me I'm wrong and call me a noob and I'm gonna explain myself and ask where someone is coming from. I don't want the guy to modify his understanding, but I want to hear the counter argument. You never know, I might learn something.

I don't really care about talking about theory publicly, but you won't see me breaking down fights.

Yeah SBR is pretty dumb if you think about it. "Here are all my thoughts about a fight, now everyone can read it." If you did have an edge you dont now because you just made all your info public.

Not betting something EV just happened on this shit hole. The greek obviously released a bad/highly EV line. Betting it knowing it was going to get reversed or at a crappier book they might have free rolled you. Now greek has your account labeled as a shot taker and you've just drawn unwanted attention to yourself. Then to top it of you publicly flash all the blinkers and post about the bad line on forum. Just retarded.

But most shit on SBR is retarded. There is zero benefit in posting anything public on here. If you think Hall's opener is dumb, wait it out, keep quiet and get as much down as you can when limits are raised.

Helping others be smarter gamblers is improving the market against you and taking away all the low hanging fruit. Zero reason to post anything worthwhile on SBR.

[JustinOpinion]

This is also incorrect. Kelly staking size is also influenced heavily by the market odds of the wager, not just the true probability. Try calculating optimal staking size for a +100000000 line that you think wins 80% of the time.

It's not incorrect, man. True line + edge is the market odds? Kelly takes the implied probability of the odds and your calculation of the true probability. The only reason it takes the market odds is to work out your edge.

[MD]

It's not incorrect, man. True line + edge is the market odds? Kelly takes the implied probability of the odds and your calculation of the true probability. The only reason it takes the market odds is to work out your edge.

wat? Are you asking me if I think this, or saying that it is true?

[Thor4140]

Mike M and Pickett i see no reason this fight should be first. Somebody with a clue needs to help the UFC brass make matches and learn how to put them in order. These two should produce a fight of the night type of fight. Heck i think it might be the best fight on the card. Why waste it first? What if it is fight of the night. Now the new fans are gonna expect all the fights to be this good. I just don't get it. I guess they think it will be a great fight and it will carry u to watch the whole card but when u see a great fight it is hard to top it. The nite starts getting dull because the first thing u witness was a super fight.

[JustinOpinion]

wat? Are you asking me if I think this, or saying that it is true?

I don't mean literally '+'. I mean if you have the true probability and the edge then you have the market odds, so by saying it uses the edge and the true probability, it implicitly uses the market line too. Although it's the reverse really since you input the implied probability of the line and the true probability and it implicitly calculates your edge.

I know how kelly works, so it must be bad wording on my part or something, I dunno. It's not exactly complicated, thought we've probably made it sound like it is.

[MD]

I don't mean literally '+'. I mean if you have the true probability and the edge then you have the market odds, so by saying it uses the edge and the true probability, it implicitly uses the market line too. Although it's the reverse really since you input the implied probability of the line and the true probability and it implicitly calculates your edge.

I know how kelly works, so it must be bad wording on my part or something, I dunno. It's not exactly complicated, thought we've probably made it sound like it is.

Pretty sure I understand what you're saying now.

Mike M and Pickett i see no reason this fight should be first. Somebody with a clue needs to help the UFC brass make matches and learn how to put them in order. These two should produce a fight of the night type of fight. Heck i think it might be the best fight on the card. Why waste it first? What if it is fight of the night. Now the new fans are gonna expect all the fights to be this good. I just don't get it. I guess they think it will be a great fight and it will carry u to watch the whole card but when u see a great fight it is hard to top it. The nite starts getting dull because the first thing u witness was a super fight.

It'll be a good fight, but to be honest, it's probably going to look a lot like the Wineland fight. That, or a lay-and-pray by Pickett. Not the most exciting of prospects.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Yeah SBR is pretty dumb if you think about it. "Here are all my thoughts about a fight, now everyone can read it." If you did have an edge you dont now because you just made all your info public.

Not betting something EV just happened on this shit hole. The greek obviously released a bad/highly EV line. Betting it knowing it was going to get reversed or at a crappier book they might have free rolled you. Now greek has your account labeled as a shot taker and you've just drawn unwanted attention to yourself. Then to top it of you publicly flash all the blinkers and post about the bad line on forum. Just retarded.

But most shit on SBR is retarded. There is zero benefit in posting anything public on here. If you think Hall's opener is dumb, wait it out, keep quiet and get as much down as you can when limits are raised.

Helping others be smarter gamblers is improving the market against you and taking away all the low hanging fruit. Zero reason to post anything worthwhile on SBR.

That is why I post my picks & plays only after I'm done wagering. After I am done I don't mind sharing my opinion with others. As far as making other gamblers better. I see that as a good thing, for the same reason I don't hold back technique's at the gym. If everyone helps everyone else out then everyone's game improves. The idea is that as everyone improves and shares with one another it becomes a positive feedback loop. It is the complete opposite of a vicious cycle/circle.

[sideloaded]

That is why I post my picks & plays only after I'm done wagering. After I am done I don't mind sharing my opinion with others. As far as making other gamblers better. I see that as a good thing, for the same reason I don't hold back technique's at the gym. If everyone helps everyone else out then everyone's game improves. The idea is that as everyone improves and shares with one another it becomes a positive feedback loop. It is the complete opposite of a vicious cycle/circle.

posting picks is fine. But if you post big write ups that is information that will get fed directly into the line next time. IF it is valuable information.


Unless you ONLY bet openers other gamblers are your direct enemy/

[gabe]

If there's value in a bet it is a bet. If there isn't, it isn't. The size of the bet is scaled considering the amount of value (% the line is off) in relation to the probability of the event. Any disagreement is a misunderstanding of how betting works.

I don't know what the lines were for that fight but if DeAnda was +1500 and you thought he should've been +1000 then you should have bet that. You would've had a ~2.8% edge.

As you've claimed I'm somebodies ghost account and called me a 'n00b gambler' while demonstrating such misunderstanding I think it's best I end communications at this point.

Books often misprice odds purposely so "n00b gamblers" like yourself will jump on the dog because you think there's "value" there lol-- if you were anybody worthwhile you wouldn't be a ghost account, get lost

[gabe]

There is a reason his opponents gas out, see if you can figure out why!

The reasons his opponents gassed out have nothing to do with him... in fact, his opponents were winning until they gassed out, aside from Thompson who gassed out after throwing one leg kick because he had an awful cut. So yea, think again, bud.

[gabe]

I'm someone's ghost account as well.

In gabe's world it's really just one person with a dozen accounts that are all ultimately devoted to telling him he says dumb shit sometimes.

I said he's a ghost account because he's recently joined and knows everybody all too well. You're too dumb of a dumb shit to figure that out. And don't even mention my name in a sentence, I have zero who you are, don't flatter yourself assuming that I knew of your existence up til this point. You're a zero and will be treated as such. Get lost, pup.

[gabe]

I disagree. Obviously it has to go hand in hand with kelly or a similar way of staking where you're not going to be staking the same sort of amounts on a tiny edge as on a huge edge.

If the argument is about 'margin of safety', well, that's silly. If, for example, you have to have at least a 5% edge to bet something you're throwing away profitable opportunities all the way to 0%. If you need your 5% because anything less doesn't seem to be making you money then you don't have a 5% edge on your 'at least 5%' bets, your calculations are out and your edge is overrated.

We're lucky to have a professional and clearly successful gambler like yourself to take time out of your day to teach us about the fundamentals of sports wagering. Thanks, bruh.