UFC Fight Night: Shogun Vs Sonnen (August 17, 2013)

[Noleafclover]

I really want to fade Nijem, decent grappler, but hes striking is comic and he dives head first into everything people throw at him. Plus he has shaky beard.

Don't know much about Vick though, how's his takedown defense? I believe he's supposed to be a golden glove boxer.

From wiki + http://www.goldengloves.com/history/ no mention of Vick. He is listed on wiki as a striking specialist however. Says he stuffed Joe Proctor's takedowns in the recent TUF quarterfinals, also got a fluky-ish win over Cruikshank -> knee to the face as Cruikshank tried to take him down. Chiesa knocked him out in the semis. In the little film I was able to watch of him, he made short work of a Jimmy Taylor on the ground, with a patient and smooth transition from mount to armbar after some gnp, and looked good doing it. However - that was the beginning and end of Taylor's career.

Haven't actually been able to see much of Nijem, but his striking is certainly comical. He made some grappling mistakes in the Jury fight as well, and his wins and losses are not very impressive. Hard to see him as better than a 2 to 1 favorite. Can you say anything else about Nijem? Anyone watch that TUF and can say anything about Vick?

[Beelzebubzy]

Whose "will" fades quicker Chael or shogun?

[eligibletackle]

Nijem is so bad


Yeah - like Matt Brown alot. Pyle's ground game is crafty but the Matt Brown that's been on a tear hasn't been making the same mistakes that got him on his back before. I'll buy that Pyle could get a quick sub but I don't think he'll be able to methodically work his was to a sub w/ TDs or getting Pyle to the ground w/ Strikes.

Is it just me on Johnson +210? I also dig over 1.5 (+105). The under seems too damn close to "Lauzon by sub w/in 7:30"

[gabe]

Nijem is so bad


Yeah - like Matt Brown alot. Pyle's ground game is crafty but the Matt Brown that's been on a tear hasn't been making the same mistakes that got him on his back before. I'll buy that Pyle could get a quick sub but I don't think he'll be able to methodically work his was to a sub w/ TDs or getting Pyle to the ground w/ Strikes.

Is it just me on Johnson +210? I also dig over 1.5 (+105). The under seems too damn close to "Lauzon by sub w/in 7:30"

Lauzon by sub in rd 1

[gabe]

Glad you guys are impressed with Matt Brown's wins over cans and gassed-out opponents.

[plekz]

Whose "will" fades quicker Chael or shogun?

The only one to ever 'break' Shogun was Jones after a hellacious beating, something Chael isn't able to deliver anywhere near. This is what Chael however had to say about this upcoming fight.

Pre-fight conference call:

Sonnen
- My coach lost his gym, he didn't tell me until the 11th hour, so I couldn't help him
- My coach has health issues, so I came to LA 6 weeks ago
- I'm going back to 185 to chase Wanderlei and Belfort
- We're both going to go forward, we're main event, you can't play around in the main event, it's going to be alot of action
- Whether it's positive or negative, I don't know, I have to tune to find out as well
- I'd like to fight Anderson Silva right now
- I worked with a new set of coaches for this, historically when a guy switches camps he doesn't tend to do as well, it's a bit of an experiment
- I worked on alot of new stuff, and I've seen other guys where general that doesn't work out
- Trained with Hall, Gastelum, Munoz, but it's an experiment for me too
- I worked hard, I'm in great shape, I expect to win
- I was out of my comfort zone, I don't leave my house very often or my city if I have too
- I've been living in a hotel for the last 6 weeks, using a GPS to get around, I didn't know where I was
- But I put my time in
- Yes this is the first time I've ever worked with a different team, I've never worked out with Munoz before
- My corner will be my old corner, it had to be set 2 months ago, so we didn't attempt to make changes
- I can hardly focus on Shogun because I'm so excited to watch Overeem/Browne fight, we have Faber, and Conor McGregor, I love the sport
- I never miss a practice if I feel bad or not
- I haven't reached my goals, plus there are guys I want to fight, I don't know Shogun is one of those guys, but his friends are, plus I like to compete
- I don't have alot of friends so it's nice to go to the gym and be in a social atmosphere
- And I've always been impressed with athletes that can extend their career (Bernard Hopkins, Dara Torres)
- My career can be over any day now, I will be forced out of this sport, I will stay in it too long

[Beelzebubzy]

Pyle hasn't defeated anyone of note either besides Hathaway.

[capt kierkegaard]

Who has Sonnen beaten to be -140 against shogun? The fight that everybody talks about for Sonnen....HE LOST! Silva was sick and injured for that fight. He was healthy for the rematch and he destroyed sonnen. I saw sonnen fight michael bisping and bisping gave sonnen all he could handle. Chael was hanging on in the end.
This is a crossroads fight for shogun. If he loses it will be a long road back. I cant see shogun getting grounded and pounded for 5 rounds. The only thing holding me back is the fact I dislike sonnen so much I could be betting with my heart. If sonnen wins AND takes a pile of my cash Im not sure I could bounce back quickly from that.

[Noleafclover]

You are betting with your heart. It's apparent in how you talk.

[Grabaka]

This is not the fight to bet big...
Bail the fuk out

[gabe]

Exactly, only a retard would go big on either Sonnen/Shogun or Brown/Pyle... same goes for McDonald/Pickett, for that matter.

I lean McDonald in that fight but at those odds the value is with Pickett. Pass for your cousin gabe.

[capt kierkegaard]

You might be right. If I lose more than cash on a bet the price is too high.
However, Im curious, does anyone here think sonnen should be -140? I know I hate the guy but I cant see a body of work that puts him as a fav against shogun. Certainly shogun is an up and down fighter, that alone makes a bet risky. But I see him as having much more skill and being much more rounded than sonnen. Sonnen doesnt have the striking ability to worry Rua. Doesnt have the jiujitsu to make rua pay for sloppiness. seems to me pure takedowns and g&p is a pretty thin gameplan against a rounded brazilian

[JustinOpinion]

Exactly, only a retard would go big on either Sonnen/Shogun or Brown/Pyle... same goes for McDonald/Pickett, for that matter.

I lean McDonald in that fight but at those odds the value is with Pickett. Pass for your cousin gabe.

Explain passing on a bet when you see value in Pickett's odds, cousin.

[Thor4140]

After watching footage on Pyle backing up in a STRAIGHT line everytime people put's pressure on him i think he's going to be in all sorts of trouble against Brown, and i havent seen much of the 'fading' on Brown in any of his last 4-5 fights. Pyle has the advantage on the ground, but he get's people down from the clinch, and Brown has a NASTY clinch game himself so i dont see Pyle having much luck there either.

If he tries to go to war with Brown, Pyle will get finished.

u didn't see him fading against the Karate wonder kid just a few fights ago? That fight set MMA back five years the way those two gassed

[Thor4140]

I really want to fade Nijem, decent grappler, but hes striking is comic and he dives head first into everything people throw at him. Plus he has shaky beard.

Don't know much about Vick though, how's his takedown defense? I believe he's supposed to be a golden glove boxer.

i loved Vick in Tuff and then he quit like a girl near the end. Now he comes back with a backbone and has looked great. I still can't get that out of my mind the way the kid quit and got his first loss.

[Thor4140]

Shit mixed up Vick with Myles Jury. MY bad.

[Noleafclover]

Explain passing on a bet when you see value in Pickett's odds, cousin.

I think Picket should be c. +175, so there's definitely less dis-value there, but I'm not jumping on it.

[gabe]

Explain passing on a bet when you see value in Pickett's odds, cousin.

There isn't enough value to warrant a bet, cousin.

[getlucky2win]

If u parlay it there's less juice

[Rubber Guard]

Like McGregor, Faber at current odds. Really don't know about the Pyle/Brown fight, feel Brown is on too much of a roll not to win. but I have the under at +110.

3 brownies on the card.

[JustinOpinion]

There isn't enough value to warrant a bet, cousin.

How much value is in Pickett's line, and how much value warrants a bet for you?

edit - Actually, don't bother. I just searched to see if you had a thread and realised I commented on you 'Trying to bet smart by not betting something at +280 that should be +180, because it loses more often than not', already. Not sure why I didn't put you on the list Carry on.

[Ra22moan]

we might be able to make those books send us some checks

[gabe]

Who's ghost account is justinopinion? Clearly someone who was banned and just couldn't stay away

[gabe]

I thought there was value in Angel DeAnda's line too, because Tyrone Spong shouldn't be -1500 over anybody in MMA. Did that mean I should bet on Angel DeAnda just because there's "value" in that line? lol i love n00b gamblers

Bottom line; I think McDonald wins but isn't worth the juice, and the kickback on Pickett isn't enough to take the gamble. If Pickett gets to +200, then I'd see enough value there to warrant a bet.

[gabe]

I am loving the fact that everybody is favoring Matt Brown.

[plekz]

Pyle pretty much had to be talked into taking the fight, just had a kid, him and Brown hang out on the regular, it was a major decision for Pyle to even take the fight and be away from his newborn and leaving the wife alone with it.

Pyle has been dropped in his last several fights, he'd been KO'd by Story if it hadn't been for the cage wall saving him, otherwise he'd have bounced his head on the canvas aswell.

He also has a habit of NOT cutting angles at all, lacks any kind of wrestling shoot ability and instead initiates takedowns from the clinch, he's also nearly 40 years old.

I'm only worried about Brown on the ground, the way Pyle get's it there though is through clinchwork and Matt's clinch is severly underrated.

[JustinOpinion]

I thought there was value in Angel DeAnda's line too, because Tyrone Spong shouldn't be -1500 over anybody in MMA. Did that mean I should bet on Angel DeAnda just because there's "value" in that line? lol i love n00b gamblers

If there's value in a bet it is a bet. If there isn't, it isn't. The size of the bet is scaled considering the amount of value (% the line is off) in relation to the probability of the event. Any disagreement is a misunderstanding of how betting works.

I don't know what the lines were for that fight but if DeAnda was +1500 and you thought he should've been +1000 then you should have bet that. You would've had a ~2.8% edge.

As you've claimed I'm somebodies ghost account and called me a 'n00b gambler' while demonstrating such misunderstanding I think it's best I end communications at this point.

[mirinquads]

Glad you guys are impressed with Matt Brown's wins over cans and gassed-out opponents.

There is a reason his opponents gas out, see if you can figure out why!

[The HOFF]

Have to say I like Mike Pyle at +odds.

Is Alcantara worth a small play? Seems like a live dog to me, but has a good possibility of just being taken down for 3 rounds because of Faber's wrestling ability.

[plekz]

Have to say I like Mike Pyle at +odds.

Is Alcantara worth a small play? Seems like a live dog to me, but has a good possibility of just being taken down for 3 rounds because of Faber's wrestling ability.

Alcantara is a 'live' dog for 5 minutes, after 5 he starts slowing down, when you hit the 10 minute mark he's nothing more then a sluggish zombie, this has happened in EVERY fight he's had that has gone passed the first round, no matter what weightclass and he's been all the way from FW up to WW.

[MD]

If there's value in a bet it is a bet. If there isn't, it isn't. The size of the bet is scaled considering the amount of value (% the line is off) in relation to the probability of the event. Any disagreement is a misunderstanding of how betting works.

I don't know what the lines were for that fight but if DeAnda was +1500 and you thought he should've been +1000 then you should have bet that. You would've had a ~2.8% edge.

As you've claimed I'm somebodies ghost account and called me a 'n00b gambler' while demonstrating such misunderstanding I think it's best I end communications at this point.

If you're going to try to school someone, you should make sure you are correct first.

[Beelzebubzy]

Anyone care to breakdown manny cole for me
I have only seen cole take my money away against Bart. Nothing recent on manny

[MD]

Anyone care to breakdown manny cole for me
I have only seen cole take my money away against Bart. Nothing recent on manny

I watched one fight on each and quit, realizing it was futile and that this isn't a fight I want to 'cap.

I then saw Manny at +130 when everywhere else had him at -130. $$$.

[CTM]

As you've claimed I'm somebodies ghost account and called me a 'n00b gambler' while demonstrating such misunderstanding I think it's best I end communications at this point.

I'm someone's ghost account as well.

In gabe's world it's really just one person with a dozen accounts that are all ultimately devoted to telling him he says dumb shit sometimes.

[Thor4140]

I'm someone's ghost account as well.

In gabe's world it's really just one person with a dozen accounts that are all ultimately devoted to telling him he says dumb shit sometimes.

priceless