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tommy, maybe I didn't explain it great, but I actually give noons 0% chance of sub. i'd say 10% itd, either in the form of a flash ko, or fluke injury. 10% chance he wins a decision. put it this way, I like cerrone SU most of all. by playing the -530, i'm still getting cerrone SU for all intents and purposes, and I get a little more coverage in case of a flash ko/fluke injury.Comment -
im not going to debate betting styles.. BOL brothaComment -
lol The value when betting straight-up moneyline is ok, but the value when putting in a parlay is averageComment -
How can I compete with your ever so informative thread ???Comment -
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lolComment -
dude this is a shit show, everyone think this is ufc 160 thread nowComment -
How do I post a pic in my avatar ?? It's not working for me.Comment -
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thats why im saying...noons not by dec. means youre betting on cerrone by dec, tko/ko, sub as well as noons by sub, tko/ko all in one bet...noons by dec. would be graded as a loss according to that specific prop...according to what you said, you give noons zero chance at a sub and only 10% chance at a ko/tko...so basically theres pretty much nothing noons can do to help you win your bet according to your analysis, save for a very small chance (10%) via flukey injury or flash KO...so basically, to win your bet, according to what you think, youre really banking on cerrone finishing noons or winning a decision...since you already have cerrone straight up, why not take cerrone ITD +135 odds (5D) or wait till the specific prop odds come out for a tko/ko or sub and play those for even bigger + odds? as opposed to -530 odds...you dont think noons can sub cerrone, you dont think noons can decision cerrone and you only give noons a 10% chance to possible ko him...that pretty much only leaves cerrone by finish or decision...either of those props (itd, tko/ko or sub) would pay out far better then a -530 not noons by dec bet....if you gave noons a real chance at a ko/tko or a sub, this -530 bet would have more sense, but you only give a small fluke chance of a ko/tko and zero chance of a sub...so why make a bet that includes those outcomes if they dont even provide any value to you?Comment -
that 10% makes this bet worthwhile for me. I have cerrone winning 80% of the time, and noons winning itd 10% of the time. so that's 90% of possible outcomes at -530, or 84.1%. I understand a lot disagree with my numbers, but if we're going along with my numbers, I think the bet makes sense. you are right, however, that my bet includes noons by sub, but overall its still has value imo. im not sure I can explain it better. I think the lines for cerrone itd and by decision are about right. I don't see any value there at the moment.Comment
cool. some people get sensitive about their personal threads.
