Ufc 160

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-20-13, 11:16 AM

You better be balls deep with bets on Pyle and Noons

**whipton** · 05-20-13, 11:22 AM

i got 0.5 units on noons @ +250

**brooks85** · 05-20-13, 11:26 AM

what is ranked higher, ok or avg?

**whipton** · 05-20-13, 11:40 AM

weak
< avg
avg
ok
decent
good
plus (rare)

**ArchieUD** · 05-20-13, 11:40 AM

"Mark Hunt
Striker/Grappler"

Why do you rank his jitz better than JDS?

**whipton** · 05-20-13, 11:40 AM

Plays (going light on this card thanks to luke lol fawk)======================================== ==

Parlay (4 units for 5 units)
=====================
Cain Velasquez
Glover Texiera
Gray Maynard

KJ Noons +250 (0.5 units for 1.2 units)

**whipton** · 05-20-13, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by ArchieUD

"Mark Hunt
Striker/Grappler

Why do you rank his jitz better than JDS?

cause it is ......... JDS have "NEVER" shown any offensive Jits as of yet only his weak guard.

pre-capping i would have thought JDS was the better grappler, i was wrong.

**PunisherIND** · 05-20-13, 12:51 PM

i just made a big play on Not noons by decision @ -530

already have big play on cerrone SU @ -275

MD · 05-20-13, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

i just made a big play on Not noons by decision @ -530

already have big play on cerrone SU @ -275

Noons only really wins a decision against Cerrone, though. He pretty much never submits him, and a KO is really unlikely too. What's the rationale here?

**Vaughany** · 05-20-13, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by brooks85

what is ranked higher, ok or avg?

ha I asked him tht on sherdog earlier! Makes no sense.

**Vaughany** · 05-20-13, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by MD

Noons only really wins a decision against Cerrone, though. He pretty much never submits him, and a KO is really unlikely too. What's the rationale here?

yeah if Noons does win it will only be by decision and will only be if Cerrone fights like he did against Diaz which is unlikely

**Tommy Blingshyne** · 05-20-13, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by MD

Noons only really wins a decision against Cerrone, though. He pretty much never submits him, and a KO is really unlikely too. What's the rationale here?

I agree, would have played not noons itd over dec depending on what those odds were, -530 for not noons by dec seems like pretty terrible odds especially being that noons most likely shot to win is by a decision

**PunisherIND** · 05-20-13, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by MD

Noons only really wins a decision against Cerrone, though. He pretty much never submits him, and a KO is really unlikely too. What's the rationale here?

i think noons only chance is a fluke ko. cerrone walking into something flush on the jaw or temple. (granted, we can argue whether or not that is actually a "fluke", but you know what i mean, a one punch ko type of thing). highly unlikely, i agree. but crazy as it sounds, i think its more likely than noons winning a decision (maybe equally likely, 10% each). another factor in my thinking, i already have a big play on cerrone SU, and i wanted to diversify it little bit. but in short, i find more value in Not dec @ -530 than Not itd @ -1510.

**PunisherIND** · 05-20-13, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

yeah if Noons does win it will only be by decision and will only be if Cerrone fights like he did against Diaz which is unlikely

guess im in the minority with this one, but that's okay. if cerrone wins, im happy.

**PunisherIND** · 05-20-13, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Blingshyne

I agree, would have played not noons itd over dec depending on what those odds were, -530 for not noons by dec seems like pretty terrible odds especially being that noons most likely shot to win is by a decision

its terrible odds if you think there's less than 84% chance that either cerrone wins or noons gets a finish. i capped cerrone at 80%. edit: also have to consider self-inflicted broken toes and the like.

**Tommy Blingshyne** · 05-20-13, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

i think noons only chance is a fluke ko. cerrone walking into something flush on the jaw or temple. (granted, we can argue whether or not that is actually a "fluke", but you know what i mean, a one punch ko type of thing). highly unlikely, i agree. but crazy as it sounds, i think its more likely than noons winning a decision (maybe equally likely, 10% each). another factor in my thinking, i already have a big play on cerrone SU, and i wanted to diversify it little bit. but in short, i find more value in Not dec @ -530 than Not itd @ -1510.

so y not sprinkle a little on noons by TKO/KO and get a way better payday if the "fluke" happens? noons not itd at -1510 would be a no play for me too but noons by KO/TKO is prob good + odds if you think he has a shot, I don't but I could see him out boxing cerrone and winning a close dec if he can get inside on him

**whipton** · 05-20-13, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

i just made a big play on Not noons by decision @ -530

already have big play on cerrone SU @ -275

isn't that too chalky for a straight up play ??

MD · 05-20-13, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by whipton

isn't that too chalky for a straight up play ??

What would you suggest, whipton? Should he put it in a parlay bro?

**Vaughany** · 05-20-13, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

guess im in the minority with this one, but that's okay. if cerrone wins, im happy.

Im not necessarily saying it's a bad play though! As I said, for me it all depends on which Cerrone turns up, and I'm leaning towards thinking that he will fight smarter this time (technical striking like in the Stephens fight and mix in takedowns like he's done in past against Varner (rematch) and Paul Kelly), and therefore on that basis I would agree that Noons' probably wouldnt win a decision 84% of the time. But if Cerrone does just stand and bang with him then of course the chances of Noons getting the nod have to be much better, but obviously you are thinking along same lines as me and leaning towards the former. I've talked about it on sherdog and copy and pasted my ramblings in my thread - but Cerrone is weighing a lot less at this point leading up to a fight than he usually does. He was at 168lbs almost 2 weeks ago, and usually he cuts 20-30lbs during week of the fight so this cut should be a lot easier than it has been before. This to me suggests that Cerrone is taking this whole thing seriously, despite what many are saying (that Adam Martin guy and Nick Kalikas were saying they like Noons to win (Adam was anyway) because Cerrone is too busy with his rock climbing and shiit and not taking it seriously anymore)...

**Vaughany** · 05-20-13, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by MD

What would you suggest, whipton? Should he put it in a parlay bro?

lol course he should

**Vaughany** · 05-20-13, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

its terrible odds if you think there's less than 84% chance that either cerrone wins or noons gets a finish. i capped cerrone at 80%. edit: also have to consider self-inflicted broken toes and the like.

ha yeah, and fact that Cerrone fractured his hip and foot a few months ago and his refusal to pull out of fights even if he is dying is a bit worrying!

**PunisherIND** · 05-20-13, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by whipton

isn't that too chalky for a straight up play ??

not at all. im playing cain straight up at -600 and -650.

**PunisherIND** · 05-20-13, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Blingshyne

so y not sprinkle a little on noons by TKO/KO and get a way better payday if the "fluke" happens? noons not itd at -1510 would be a no play for me too but noons by KO/TKO is prob good + odds if you think he has a shot, I don't but I could see him out boxing cerrone and winning a close dec if he can get inside on him

based on my numbers, there was more value n Not noons by decision @ -530 than Noons ITD @ +700 or whatever its at. but I realize a big part of this discussions relates to a difference in our numbers. anyway, I should have waited. noons by decision is getting some love. Not decision just improved to -475

**PunisherIND** · 05-20-13, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Im not necessarily saying it's a bad play though! As I said, for me it all depends on which Cerrone turns up, and I'm leaning towards thinking that he will fight smarter this time (technical striking like in the Stephens fight and mix in takedowns like he's done in past against Varner (rematch) and Paul Kelly), and therefore on that basis I would agree that Noons' probably wouldnt win a decision 84% of the time. But if Cerrone does just stand and bang with him then of course the chances of Noons getting the nod have to be much better, but obviously you are thinking along same lines as me and leaning towards the former. I've talked about it on sherdog and copy and pasted my ramblings in my thread - but Cerrone is weighing a lot less at this point leading up to a fight than he usually does. He was at 168lbs almost 2 weeks ago, and usually he cuts 20-30lbs during week of the fight so this cut should be a lot easier than it has been before. This to me suggests that Cerrone is taking this whole thing seriously, despite what many are saying (that Adam Martin guy and Nick Kalikas were saying they like Noons to win (Adam was anyway) because Cerrone is too busy with his rock climbing and shiit and not taking it seriously anymore)...

arent luca and kalikas charging for picks now? and I think they kicked adam out of their crew. he cant be that good. lol.

**Vaughany** · 05-20-13, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

arent luca and kalikas charging for picks now? and I think they kicked adam out of their crew. he cant be that good. lol.

ha yeah, and it's like $50 per event or something! I imagine majority tailing don't even better $50 in total per event!

**whipton** · 05-20-13, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by MD

What would you suggest, whipton? Should he put it in a parlay bro?

i would

**Tommy Blingshyne** · 05-20-13, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

based on my numbers, there was more value n Not noons by decision @ -530 than Noons ITD @ +700 or whatever its at. but I realize a big part of this discussions relates to a difference in our numbers. anyway, I should have waited. noons by decision is getting some love. Not decision just improved to -475

well you dont think noons can win a dec. based on the initial bet and you stated it would be a rather unlikely fluke (maybe 10% more chance then a dec.) for him to win by TKO/KO so what youre really betting on is cerrone by dec., sub or tko/ko and i guess noons by sub right? think its a fair enough assumption that noons isnt subbing cerrone and u already have the str8 up cerrone bet...why not look for cerrone ITD then at a much better price then -530 right? cause based on the convo, it seems like thats really what youre betting on...even 2 single bets on cerrone by sub or cerrone by tko/ko would be more lucrative then not noons by dec...idk just throwing ideas out there...

**Vaughany** · 05-20-13, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by whipton

i would

ha so you wouldnt make a straight-up play on him at -600 but would put him in a parlay?

MD · 05-20-13, 01:58 PM

The Oddscast going tout upsets me. I've considered paying for it. I never tail Luca or Kalikas, or Martin for that matter, for many reasons, but one of which is that they really don't even recommend plays often. They usually just say "i pik da favrite 2 win but no bet". What may make me consider paying for it, though, is that I really like listening to it when I'm at the gym or down town or something, because it keeps me in a gambling mindset and I like how my thought processes tend to run while I'm listening to it, and after I listen to it. Probably +EV for me. If not, I can easily just put $100 on everything they say to bet on and it'll pay4itzelf as they say, if they're as consistent as they claim to be with their Gabe-esque records (which they're not; they're really not all that sharp).

**Vaughany** · 05-20-13, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by MD

The Oddscast going tout upsets me. I've considered paying for it. I never tail Luca or Kalikas, or Martin for that matter, for many reasons, but one of which is that they really don't even recommend plays often. They usually just say "i pik da favrite 2 win but no bet". What may make me consider paying for it, though, is that I really like listening to it when I'm at the gym or down town or something, because it keeps me in a gambling mindset and I like how my thought processes tend to run while I'm listening to it, and after I listen to it. Probably +EV for me. If not, I can easily just put $100 on everything they say to bet on and it'll pay4itzelf as they say, if they're as consistent as they claim to be with their Gabe-esque records.

ha well you can still listen to Rothwell Jnr's Kamikaze Overdrive while you at the gym!

MD · 05-20-13, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha well you can still listen to Rothwell Jnr's Kamikaze Overdrive while you at the gym!

Never heard of it bruhv. Any good?

**goodfellas433** · 05-20-13, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha well you can still listen to Rothwell Jnr's Kamikaze Overdrive while you at the gym!

hat's fn hilarious...he does look like a mini Rothwell lol. He had some great paying parlays for a while, but then I went on a -800 run following them....haven't been back since. Lol

**sideloaded** · 05-20-13, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by MD

Never heard of it bruhv. Any good?

nunya and I got him banned from this forum, it was a glorious day

**kripsak** · 05-20-13, 02:22 PM

Watch out for that kamikazeoverdrive guy, he's pretty biased towards his fellow Canadian's. As a bettor, you just can't bet with your heart.