Ufc 160

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  • whipton
    SBR Hustler
    • 02-23-13
    • 60

    #1
    Ufc 160
    Date: May 25, 2013
    Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
    Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena
    Broadcast: Pay-per-view, FX, Facebook


    MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)
    ==============================
    Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva - for heavyweight title
    Junior dos Santos vs. Mark Hunt
    James Te Huna vs. Glover Teixeira
    T.J. Grant vs. Gray Maynard
    Donald Cerrone vs. KJ Noons


    PRELIMINARY CARD (FX, 8 p.m. ET)
    ============================
    Mike Pyle vs. Rick Story
    Dennis Bermudez vs. Max Holloway
    Colton Smith vs. Robert Whittaker
    Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Abel Trujillo


    PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 6:35 p.m. ET)
    ===================================
    Nah-Shon Burrell vs. Stephen Thompson
    Brian Bowles vs. George Roop
    Estevan Payan vs. Jeremy Stephens


    @whipthecapper


    Brian Bowles
    ============
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    ok striker
    ok punching tech.
    heavy handed
    throws various punching combos
    weak kicker
    rarely kicks
    > avg striker in the clinch
    < avg head movement
    > avg footwork
    ok clinch td
    ok shoot td
    prefers to shoot for td
    > avg clinch tdd
    weak shoot sl or dl tdd
    > avg top control
    > avg jits
    avg guard passing ability
    > avg gnp
    < avg guard
    avg chin
    > avg cardio


    George Roop
    ============
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    ok striker
    ok punching tech.
    throws various punch/kick combos/ 1-2 or 1-2 kick mostly
    ok kicker
    > avg leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    > avg striker in the clinch
    < avg head movement
    ok footwork
    weak clinch td
    avg shoot td
    prefers to shoot for a DL against the cage
    avg clinch tdd
    weak shoot sl or dl tdd
    > avg top control
    < avg jits
    weak guard passing ability
    ok gnp/good elbows
    avg guard/ active w/ strikes
    < avg chin
    ok cardio


    Brian via KO or Dec


    Confidemce meter: 6/10




    What the Odds should be
    =======================
    Brian Bowles -175
    George Roop +140




    Stephen Thompson
    ==================
    switches stance
    striker
    aggressive
    decent striker
    > avg punching tech.
    throws various punch/kick combos
    good kicker
    ok leg kicks
    throws kicks to the leg/body/head
    throws a variety of kicks
    avg striker in the clinch
    < avg head movement
    > avg footwork
    weak clinch td
    weak shoot td
    rarely attempts td
    weak clinch trip tdd
    weak shoot SL or DL tdd
    weak top control
    weak jits
    weak guard passing ability
    weak top control
    weak gnp
    weak guard
    < avg chin
    < avg cardio




    Nah-shon Burrell
    ================
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    decent striker
    heavy handed
    decent punching tech.
    throws various punching combos
    avg kicker
    > avg leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    > avg striker in the clinch
    > avg head movement
    > avg footwork
    ok clinch td/trip
    > avg shoot td
    prefers SL td against the cage
    weak clinch tdd
    weak shoot sl or dl tdd
    > avg top control
    weak jits
    weak guard passing ability
    ok gnp
    < avg guard
    < avg chin
    > avg cardio


    nah-shon burrell via dec


    Confidence Meter: 5/10


    what the odds should be
    ========================


    Stephen Thompson +110
    Nah-shon Burrell -130




    Robert Whittaker (lacked footy)
    ================================
    Striker
    aggressive
    decent striker
    contact striker
    ok punching tech.
    throws various punch/kick combos
    good kicker
    decent leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    avg striker in the clinch
    avg head movement
    avg footwork
    weak clinch td
    weak shoot td
    doesn't attempt tds
    weak clinch tdd
    weak shoot sl or dl tdd
    top control ???
    < avg jits
    guard passing ability
    > avg gnp
    avg guard
    > avg chin
    ok cardio




    Colton Smith
    =============
    Grappler/striker
    aggressive grappler/tentative counter strike
    avg striker
    contact striker
    avg punching tech.
    throws a 1-2 at most
    avg kicker
    > avg leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body
    avg striker in the clinch/ looks for td
    < avg head movement
    > avg footwork
    good clinch td
    > avg shoot td
    prefers DUH td in the clinch
    < avg clinch tdd
    < avg shoot sl or dl tdd
    decent top control
    ok jits
    > avg guard passing ability
    ok gnp
    avg guard
    < avg chin
    > avg cardio


    colton smith via sub 3rd rd


    Confidence Meter: 5/10


    What the odds should be
    =========================
    Robert Whittaker+155
    Colton Smith -180




    Abel Trujillo
    ==============
    Striker/Grappler
    aggressive
    > avg striker
    > avg punching tech.
    throws various punching combos
    weak kicker
    weak leg kicks
    never kicks
    < avg striker in clinch
    ok head movement
    ok footwork
    decent clinch td
    rarely shoots for td
    prefers SL/DL td against the cage
    avg clinch tdd
    > avg shoot sl or dl tdd
    ok top control
    > avg jits
    avg guard passing ability
    decent gnp
    < avg guard
    > avg chin
    decent cardio


    Khabib Nurmagomedov
    ====================
    aggressive grappler/counter striker
    ok striker
    < avg punching tech.
    throws various punching combos
    avg kicker
    ok leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    avg striker in the clinch
    > avg head movement
    ok footwork
    good DUH clinch td/trip
    decent shoot SL td
    prefers to shoot for SL td
    > avg clinch tdd
    > avg shoot sl or dl tdd
    ok top control
    good jits
    good guard passing ability
    good gnp
    > avg active guard
    ok chin
    ok cardio


    Khabib Nurmagomedov via sub rd 1 or dec


    Confidence meter:5.5/10


    What the odds should be
    =======================
    Khabib Nurmagomedov -300
    Abel Trujillo +255




    Dennis Bermudez
    ===============
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    ok striker
    ok punching tech.
    heavy handed
    throws a 1-2 or 1-1-2 combos
    < avg kicker
    avg leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    ok striker in the clinch
    > avg head movement
    ok footwork
    decent clinch td
    decent shoot SL td
    prefers DL against the cage
    avg clinch tdd
    > avg shoot sl or dl tdd
    ok top control
    > avg jits
    > avg guard passing ability
    ok gnp
    < avg guard
    < avg chin
    ok cardio


    Max Holloway
    =============
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    good striker
    decent punching tech.
    thorws various punch/kick combos
    decent kicker
    ok leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    good striker in the clinch/ good body puncher
    ok head movement
    ok footwork
    avg clinch td/trip
    never shoots for td
    prefers trips in from the clinch
    weak clinch tdd
    < avg shoot sl or dl tdd
    avg top control
    < avg jits
    < avg guard passing ability
    > avg gnp
    avg active guard
    ok chin
    ok cardio


    dennis bermudez via sub 1st round


    Confidence Meter: 7/10


    What the odds should be
    =======================
    Dennis Bermudez -350
    Max Holloway +290




    Rick Story
    ==========
    southpaw
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    decent striker
    heavy handed
    ok punching tech.
    throws various punching combos
    > avg kicker
    ok leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body
    good striker in the clinch/ good body striker
    avg head movement
    avg footwork
    decent clinch td
    decent shoot SL td
    prefers to shoot for a DL/SL td against the cage
    avg clinch tdd
    < avg shoot sl or dl tdd
    ok top control
    ok jits
    > avg guard passing ability
    deent gnp
    > avg active guard
    good chin
    ok cardio




    Mike Pyle
    ==========
    Striker/grappler
    ok striker
    decent punching tech.
    throws a 1-2 mostly
    > avg kicker
    > avg leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body
    > avg striker in the clinch
    < avg head movement
    ok footwork
    ok clinch td/trip
    ok shoot td
    prefers trip td from the clinch
    weak clinch tdd
    weak shoot sl or dl tdd
    ok top control
    decent jits
    ok guard passing ability
    decent gnp
    decent active guard
    weak chin
    ok cardio


    Rick Story via KO/TKO Rd 1


    Confidence meter:6.5/10


    What the odds should be
    =======================
    Rick Story -250
    Mike Pyle +210




    Donald Cerrone
    ===============
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    good striker
    decent punching tech.
    throws various punching combos/ 1-2 or 1-2 kick mostly
    good kicker
    good leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    ok striker in the clinch/ good knees
    weak head movement
    avg footwork
    < avg clinch trip td
    decent shoot DL td
    prefers to shoot for a DL td
    < avg clinch tdd
    < avg shoot sl or dl tdd
    avg top control
    ok jits
    ok guard passing ability
    decent gnp
    decent active guard
    ok chin
    ok cardio




    KJ Noons
    ========
    Striker
    aggressive
    decent striker
    decent punching tech.
    throws various punching combos
    > avg kicker
    ok leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    > avg striker in the clinch/ good body punches
    decent head movement ???
    avg footwork
    weak clinch td
    < avg shoot td
    rarely goes for td
    prefers to shoot for a DL td
    weak clinch tdd
    weak shoot sl or dl tdd
    weak top control
    avg jits
    weak guard passing ability
    < avg gnp
    < avg guard
    decent chin
    ok cardio


    KJ Noons via Decision


    Confidence meter: 4/10


    What the odds should be
    ========================
    Donald Cerrone -150
    KJ Noons +125




    Gray Maynard
    =============
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    decent striker
    decent punching tech.
    heavy handed
    throws various punching combos
    avg kicker ???
    > avg leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/head
    ok striker in the clinch/good knees
    > avg head movement
    ok footwork
    good clinch td
    good shoot DL td
    prefers to shoot for a DL td against the cage
    avg clinch tdd
    decent shoot sl or dl tdd
    decent top control
    > avg jits
    > avg guard passing ability
    decent gnp
    < avg guard
    ok chin
    ok cardio




    TJ Grant
    =========
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    decent striker
    decent punching tech.
    throws various punching ccombos
    > avg kicker
    ok leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    good striker in the clinch/good knees & elbows
    > avg head movement
    > avg footwork
    ok clinch td
    ok shoot td
    prefers to shoot for a DL/knee tap td
    < avg clinch tdd
    weak shoot sl or dl tdd
    > avg top control
    decent jits
    decent guard passing ability
    ok gnp
    decent active guard/good sweeps
    good chin
    ok cardio


    Gray Maynard via Decision


    Confidence Meter: 6.5/10


    What the odds should be
    =======================
    Gray Maynard -250
    TJ Grant +200




    Glover Teixeira
    ================
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    good striker
    heavy handed
    ok punching tech.
    throws various punching combos
    > avg kicker
    > avg leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    ok striker in the clinch
    > avg head movement
    avg footwork
    avg clinch td
    decent shoot td
    prefers to shoot for SL/DL td
    > avg clinch tdd
    > avg shoot sl or dl tdd
    decent top control
    good jits
    good guard passing ability
    good gnp
    guard ??? no one has put him on his back in 16 fights
    decent chin
    decent cardio




    James Te Huna
    ==============
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    good striker
    heavy handed
    good hand speed
    good punching tech.
    throws various punching combos
    avg kicker
    > avg leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    avg striker in the clinch
    > avg head movement
    > avg footwork
    decent clinch td
    ok shoot SL td
    prefers high-c td against the cage
    < avg clinch tdd
    avg shoot sl or dl tdd
    decent top control
    ok jits
    ok guard passing ability
    good gnp
    < avg guard
    < avg chin
    ok cardio


    Glover Texiera via KO/TKO/SUB Round 1


    Confidence Meter: 6.5/10


    What the Odds should be
    =======================
    Glover Texiera -250
    James Te Huna +210




    Mark Hunt
    ==========
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    good striker
    heavy handed
    decent punching tech.
    throws various punching combos
    ok kicker
    good leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    ok striker in the clinch/good knees
    avg head movement
    avg footwork
    ok clinch td
    < avg shoot td
    prefers DUH td/trips in the clinch
    weak clinch tdd
    weak shoot sl or dl tdd
    avg top control
    ok jits
    > avg guard passing ability
    decent gnp
    avg guard
    good chin
    avg cardio




    Junior Dos Santos
    ==================
    Striker
    aggressive
    good striker
    heavy handed
    decent punching tech.
    throws various punching combos
    > avg kicker
    ok leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    rarely kicks
    > avg striker in the clinch/good body punches
    avg head movement
    ok footwork
    > avg clinch td
    > avg shoot td
    prefers DUH trips in the clinch
    rarely attempts tds
    > avg clinch tdd
    avg shoot sl or dl tdd
    < avg top control
    weak jits
    weak guard passing ability
    > avg gnp
    weak guard
    decent chin
    > avg cardio


    Mark Hunt via KO round 3


    Confidence Meter:5/10


    What the Odds Should be
    =======================
    JDS -200
    Hunt +165




    Cain Velasquez
    ===============
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    good striker
    good punching tech.
    throws various punching combos/ 1-2 kick favored
    decent kicker
    decent leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    good striker in the clinch/good activity & variety
    good head movement
    ok footwork
    good clinch td
    good shoot td
    prefers to shoot for a SL/DL td
    > avg clinch tdd
    ok shoot sl or dl tdd
    good top control
    > avg jits
    ok guard passing ability
    plus gnp
    guard ???
    > avg chin
    good cardio




    Antonio Silva
    ==============
    Striker/grappler
    aggressive
    good striker
    heavy handed
    ok punching tech.
    throws various punching combos
    ok kicker
    good leg kicks
    throws kicks to the legs/body/head
    ok striker in the clinch
    weak head movement
    avg footwork
    ok clinch td/trip
    decent shoot td
    prefers to shoot for a DL td
    weak clinch tdd
    weak shoot sl or dl tdd
    decent top control
    decent jits
    decent guard passing ability
    good gnp
    avg guard
    avg chin
    decent cardio


    cain velasquez via tko round 2


    confidence meter: 8/10


    what the odds should be
    ========================
    Cain Velasquez -650
    Antonio Silva +500

    @whipthecapper
  • Beelzebubzy
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 06-06-11
    • 6995

    #2
    You better be balls deep with bets on Pyle and Noons
    Comment
    • whipton
      SBR Hustler
      • 02-23-13
      • 60

      #3
      i got 0.5 units on noons @ +250
      Comment
      • brooks85
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-05-09
        • 44709

        #4
        what is ranked higher, ok or avg?
        Comment
        • whipton
          SBR Hustler
          • 02-23-13
          • 60

          #5
          weak
          < avg
          avg
          ok
          decent
          good
          plus (rare)
          Comment
          • ArchieUD
            SBR High Roller
            • 04-11-13
            • 130

            #6
            "Mark Hunt
            Striker/Grappler"

            Why do you rank his jitz better than JDS?
            Comment
            • whipton
              SBR Hustler
              • 02-23-13
              • 60

              #7
              Plays (going light on this card thanks to luke lol fawk)======================================== ==


              Parlay (4 units for 5 units)
              =====================
              Cain Velasquez
              Glover Texiera
              Gray Maynard


              KJ Noons +250 (0.5 units for 1.2 units)
              Comment
              • whipton
                SBR Hustler
                • 02-23-13
                • 60

                #8
                Originally posted by ArchieUD
                "Mark Hunt
                Striker/Grappler

                Why do you rank his jitz better than JDS?

                cause it is ......... JDS have "NEVER" shown any offensive Jits as of yet only his weak guard.

                pre-capping i would have thought JDS was the better grappler, i was wrong.
                Comment
                • PunisherIND
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-24-11
                  • 4979

                  #9
                  i just made a big play on Not noons by decision @ -530 already have big play on cerrone SU @ -275
                  Comment
                  • MD
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-31-12
                    • 9728

                    #10
                    Originally posted by PunisherIND
                    i just made a big play on Not noons by decision @ -530 already have big play on cerrone SU @ -275
                    Noons only really wins a decision against Cerrone, though. He pretty much never submits him, and a KO is really unlikely too. What's the rationale here?
                    Comment
                    • Vaughany
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 03-07-10
                      • 45563

                      #11
                      Originally posted by brooks85
                      what is ranked higher, ok or avg?
                      ha I asked him tht on sherdog earlier! Makes no sense.
                      Comment
                      • Vaughany
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 03-07-10
                        • 45563

                        #12
                        Originally posted by MD
                        Noons only really wins a decision against Cerrone, though. He pretty much never submits him, and a KO is really unlikely too. What's the rationale here?
                        yeah if Noons does win it will only be by decision and will only be if Cerrone fights like he did against Diaz which is unlikely
                        Comment
                        • Tommy Blingshyne
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 12-11-12
                          • 821

                          #13
                          Originally posted by MD
                          Noons only really wins a decision against Cerrone, though. He pretty much never submits him, and a KO is really unlikely too. What's the rationale here?
                          I agree, would have played not noons itd over dec depending on what those odds were, -530 for not noons by dec seems like pretty terrible odds especially being that noons most likely shot to win is by a decision
                          Comment
                          • PunisherIND
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-24-11
                            • 4979

                            #14
                            Originally posted by MD
                            Noons only really wins a decision against Cerrone, though. He pretty much never submits him, and a KO is really unlikely too. What's the rationale here?
                            i think noons only chance is a fluke ko. cerrone walking into something flush on the jaw or temple. (granted, we can argue whether or not that is actually a "fluke", but you know what i mean, a one punch ko type of thing). highly unlikely, i agree. but crazy as it sounds, i think its more likely than noons winning a decision (maybe equally likely, 10% each). another factor in my thinking, i already have a big play on cerrone SU, and i wanted to diversify it little bit. but in short, i find more value in Not dec @ -530 than Not itd @ -1510.
                            Comment
                            • PunisherIND
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-24-11
                              • 4979

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Vaughany
                              yeah if Noons does win it will only be by decision and will only be if Cerrone fights like he did against Diaz which is unlikely
                              guess im in the minority with this one, but that's okay. if cerrone wins, im happy.
                              Comment
                              • PunisherIND
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-24-11
                                • 4979

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Tommy Blingshyne
                                I agree, would have played not noons itd over dec depending on what those odds were, -530 for not noons by dec seems like pretty terrible odds especially being that noons most likely shot to win is by a decision
                                its terrible odds if you think there's less than 84% chance that either cerrone wins or noons gets a finish. i capped cerrone at 80%. edit: also have to consider self-inflicted broken toes and the like.
                                Comment
                                • Tommy Blingshyne
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 12-11-12
                                  • 821

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                  i think noons only chance is a fluke ko. cerrone walking into something flush on the jaw or temple. (granted, we can argue whether or not that is actually a "fluke", but you know what i mean, a one punch ko type of thing). highly unlikely, i agree. but crazy as it sounds, i think its more likely than noons winning a decision (maybe equally likely, 10% each). another factor in my thinking, i already have a big play on cerrone SU, and i wanted to diversify it little bit. but in short, i find more value in Not dec @ -530 than Not itd @ -1510.
                                  so y not sprinkle a little on noons by TKO/KO and get a way better payday if the "fluke" happens? noons not itd at -1510 would be a no play for me too but noons by KO/TKO is prob good + odds if you think he has a shot, I don't but I could see him out boxing cerrone and winning a close dec if he can get inside on him
                                  Comment
                                  • whipton
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 02-23-13
                                    • 60

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                    i just made a big play on Not noons by decision @ -530 already have big play on cerrone SU @ -275
                                    isn't that too chalky for a straight up play ??
                                    Comment
                                    • MD
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 01-31-12
                                      • 9728

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by whipton
                                      isn't that too chalky for a straight up play ??
                                      What would you suggest, whipton? Should he put it in a parlay bro?
                                      Comment
                                      • Vaughany
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 03-07-10
                                        • 45563

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                        guess im in the minority with this one, but that's okay. if cerrone wins, im happy.
                                        Im not necessarily saying it's a bad play though! As I said, for me it all depends on which Cerrone turns up, and I'm leaning towards thinking that he will fight smarter this time (technical striking like in the Stephens fight and mix in takedowns like he's done in past against Varner (rematch) and Paul Kelly), and therefore on that basis I would agree that Noons' probably wouldnt win a decision 84% of the time. But if Cerrone does just stand and bang with him then of course the chances of Noons getting the nod have to be much better, but obviously you are thinking along same lines as me and leaning towards the former. I've talked about it on sherdog and copy and pasted my ramblings in my thread - but Cerrone is weighing a lot less at this point leading up to a fight than he usually does. He was at 168lbs almost 2 weeks ago, and usually he cuts 20-30lbs during week of the fight so this cut should be a lot easier than it has been before. This to me suggests that Cerrone is taking this whole thing seriously, despite what many are saying (that Adam Martin guy and Nick Kalikas were saying they like Noons to win (Adam was anyway) because Cerrone is too busy with his rock climbing and shiit and not taking it seriously anymore)...

                                        Comment
                                        • Vaughany
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 03-07-10
                                          • 45563

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by MD
                                          What would you suggest, whipton? Should he put it in a parlay bro?
                                          lol course he should
                                          Comment
                                          • Vaughany
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 03-07-10
                                            • 45563

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                            its terrible odds if you think there's less than 84% chance that either cerrone wins or noons gets a finish. i capped cerrone at 80%. edit: also have to consider self-inflicted broken toes and the like.
                                            ha yeah, and fact that Cerrone fractured his hip and foot a few months ago and his refusal to pull out of fights even if he is dying is a bit worrying!
                                            Comment
                                            • PunisherIND
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-24-11
                                              • 4979

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by whipton
                                              isn't that too chalky for a straight up play ??
                                              not at all. im playing cain straight up at -600 and -650.
                                              Comment
                                              • PunisherIND
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-24-11
                                                • 4979

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Tommy Blingshyne
                                                so y not sprinkle a little on noons by TKO/KO and get a way better payday if the "fluke" happens? noons not itd at -1510 would be a no play for me too but noons by KO/TKO is prob good + odds if you think he has a shot, I don't but I could see him out boxing cerrone and winning a close dec if he can get inside on him
                                                based on my numbers, there was more value n Not noons by decision @ -530 than Noons ITD @ +700 or whatever its at. but I realize a big part of this discussions relates to a difference in our numbers. anyway, I should have waited. noons by decision is getting some love. Not decision just improved to -475
                                                Comment
                                                • PunisherIND
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-24-11
                                                  • 4979

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                  Im not necessarily saying it's a bad play though! As I said, for me it all depends on which Cerrone turns up, and I'm leaning towards thinking that he will fight smarter this time (technical striking like in the Stephens fight and mix in takedowns like he's done in past against Varner (rematch) and Paul Kelly), and therefore on that basis I would agree that Noons' probably wouldnt win a decision 84% of the time. But if Cerrone does just stand and bang with him then of course the chances of Noons getting the nod have to be much better, but obviously you are thinking along same lines as me and leaning towards the former. I've talked about it on sherdog and copy and pasted my ramblings in my thread - but Cerrone is weighing a lot less at this point leading up to a fight than he usually does. He was at 168lbs almost 2 weeks ago, and usually he cuts 20-30lbs during week of the fight so this cut should be a lot easier than it has been before. This to me suggests that Cerrone is taking this whole thing seriously, despite what many are saying (that Adam Martin guy and Nick Kalikas were saying they like Noons to win (Adam was anyway) because Cerrone is too busy with his rock climbing and shiit and not taking it seriously anymore)...

                                                  arent luca and kalikas charging for picks now? and I think they kicked adam out of their crew. he cant be that good. lol.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Vaughany
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 03-07-10
                                                    • 45563

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                                    arent luca and kalikas charging for picks now? and I think they kicked adam out of their crew. he cant be that good. lol.
                                                    ha yeah, and it's like $50 per event or something! I imagine majority tailing don't even better $50 in total per event!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • whipton
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 02-23-13
                                                      • 60

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by MD
                                                      What would you suggest, whipton? Should he put it in a parlay bro?
                                                      i would
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Tommy Blingshyne
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 12-11-12
                                                        • 821

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                                        based on my numbers, there was more value n Not noons by decision @ -530 than Noons ITD @ +700 or whatever its at. but I realize a big part of this discussions relates to a difference in our numbers. anyway, I should have waited. noons by decision is getting some love. Not decision just improved to -475
                                                        well you dont think noons can win a dec. based on the initial bet and you stated it would be a rather unlikely fluke (maybe 10% more chance then a dec.) for him to win by TKO/KO so what youre really betting on is cerrone by dec., sub or tko/ko and i guess noons by sub right? think its a fair enough assumption that noons isnt subbing cerrone and u already have the str8 up cerrone bet...why not look for cerrone ITD then at a much better price then -530 right? cause based on the convo, it seems like thats really what youre betting on...even 2 single bets on cerrone by sub or cerrone by tko/ko would be more lucrative then not noons by dec...idk just throwing ideas out there...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Vaughany
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 03-07-10
                                                          • 45563

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by whipton
                                                          i would
                                                          ha so you wouldnt make a straight-up play on him at -600 but would put him in a parlay?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • MD
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 01-31-12
                                                            • 9728

                                                            #30
                                                            The Oddscast going tout upsets me. I've considered paying for it. I never tail Luca or Kalikas, or Martin for that matter, for many reasons, but one of which is that they really don't even recommend plays often. They usually just say "i pik da favrite 2 win but no bet". What may make me consider paying for it, though, is that I really like listening to it when I'm at the gym or down town or something, because it keeps me in a gambling mindset and I like how my thought processes tend to run while I'm listening to it, and after I listen to it. Probably +EV for me. If not, I can easily just put $100 on everything they say to bet on and it'll pay4itzelf as they say, if they're as consistent as they claim to be with their Gabe-esque records (which they're not; they're really not all that sharp).
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Vaughany
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 03-07-10
                                                              • 45563

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by MD
                                                              The Oddscast going tout upsets me. I've considered paying for it. I never tail Luca or Kalikas, or Martin for that matter, for many reasons, but one of which is that they really don't even recommend plays often. They usually just say "i pik da favrite 2 win but no bet". What may make me consider paying for it, though, is that I really like listening to it when I'm at the gym or down town or something, because it keeps me in a gambling mindset and I like how my thought processes tend to run while I'm listening to it, and after I listen to it. Probably +EV for me. If not, I can easily just put $100 on everything they say to bet on and it'll pay4itzelf as they say, if they're as consistent as they claim to be with their Gabe-esque records.
                                                              ha well you can still listen to Rothwell Jnr's Kamikaze Overdrive while you at the gym!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MD
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 01-31-12
                                                                • 9728

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                                ha well you can still listen to Rothwell Jnr's Kamikaze Overdrive while you at the gym!
                                                                Never heard of it bruhv. Any good?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • goodfellas433
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 07-16-12
                                                                  • 441

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                                  ha well you can still listen to Rothwell Jnr's Kamikaze Overdrive while you at the gym!
                                                                  hat's fn hilarious...he does look like a mini Rothwell lol. He had some great paying parlays for a while, but then I went on a -800 run following them....haven't been back since. Lol
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • sideloaded
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 08-21-10
                                                                    • 7561

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by MD
                                                                    Never heard of it bruhv. Any good?
                                                                    nunya and I got him banned from this forum, it was a glorious day
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • kripsak
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 09-16-12
                                                                      • 106

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Watch out for that kamikazeoverdrive guy, he's pretty biased towards his fellow Canadian's. As a bettor, you just can't bet with your heart.
                                                                      Comment
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