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UFC fighter and huge pro wrestling fan Chael Sonnen recently made headlines on celebrity-gossip websites, including TMZ, for his recent controversial comments regarding his interest in purchasing World Wrestling EntertainmentComment -
I read the article, it states over and over that is actually "serious" about his interest, I have no idea what the word "serious" means when it comes to Chael though.
That being said, I am entirely convinced he would be capable of booking the best wrestling promotion in history.Comment -
Just needs 350 million to be a majority holderComment -
Welll,
Lesnar and Cena each got one solid Maxi bet each.
Ziggler got 6.
Waiting to see if we get a decent line on 2 more matches that have yet to be announced/opened.Comment -
It's pretty much no different from trying to decide what happens next in a television drama. There are things to consider like pop and heat, which are how much of a reaction each guy generates with the crowd, and then there's how much the promoters like each guy, and especially, how they've built the guys and how they seem to be developing the storyline. Generally in the case of big favourites, it's stunningly easy to predict that they're going to win.Comment -
Ziggler is by far the most logical favorite. Not sure how familiar you are with WWE, but they put the MITB briefcase on him after burying him for the entire year prior, and the entire year since, yet he has still shown an amazing ability to get over.
Vinny Mac had his pet project of the month with Alberto Del Rio and Swagger in a feud, the notion was to have ADR get over as their new Mexican superstar for that audience after Mysterio was out indefinitely (and continued to be) with injuries and continues to be, however they booked him like an idiot, and surprise, he flopped. He is not even remotely over at the moment. The whole "hot angle" for Wrestlemania was to have him feud for months with an anti-immigration gimmick wrestler, Jack Swagger, except Swagger returned after several months off, after being booked as essentially a jobber, and failed to get over as well. The whole angle was a disaster, it was fully intended to continue after Wrestlemania for the next few PPV's but it failed to get over, bombed hard, and they blew it off with Ziggler cashing in on Raw, being hugely over, and essentially ending the storyline. This match is simply a blowoff to get Del Rio and Swagger out of the title picture.
Ziggler is very, very over right now, I suspect the idea at the moment is to put the belt on AJ (his onscreen girlfriend), who will be facing Kaitlyn at this PPV, and have his onscreen bodyguard feud with him over the next few months.
If you recall, while everyone was talking about how Swagger was a ridiculous choice to win at the elimination chamber, I bet him and pushed everyone to do so while not understanding why he would win and be over while he was still a slight dog. He was an experiment to feud with Del Rio, and he failed. They put the belt on Ziggler less then a month ago, there is absolutely no reason why they would take it off of him now.
As for Cena, much the same, he won the title a month ago after a 3 year program and is in a shit feud against a character who is not over, who they tried a last ditch attempt to get over by turning him heel and putting him into a program with Cena. Ryback will be a jobber or forgotten in less then a year, and to have an entire 3 year program for Cena winning the belt only to have him lose it to Ryback a month later makes no sense. I suspect they keep it on him until Summerslam, possible program with Lesnar or a returning Punk, or maybe with one of the members of the Shield, those 3 choices being the only heel's who are strong right now. Putting the belt on Ryback would be a disaster. Look at Ryback's progression since his debut, he went from destroying everyone, to having a high profile PPV main event that displayed his lack of ability to work, to being beaten ceaselessly, Vince gave up on him months ago.
Lesnar, its simply an issue of him needing to get his win back over HHH to look strong. Lesnar was hired under a temporary 1 year contract last year after Wrestlemania, the idea (I suspect) being for him to put over top talent while looking like a monster, and then leaving after this years wrestlemania. Well, just prior to wrestlemania he signed a contract extension, so now he is around here to stay for a while. They are paying him for limited dates a year, and no house shows, more then they are paying any single person on the roster right now. The initial plan for him was, as the Rock has stated, to come out on the Raw after wrestlemania, destroy the Rock, disappear, and come back to feud with the Rock leading to the main event at next years wrestlemania. Well, Rock ended up getting a herniated disc at WM, and doubts if he will ever wrestle again after ending the Cena program.
This leads to to an issue with what to do with Brock, after his loss to HHH if he comes out again and loses at the next PPV, he essentially is ruined as a character, and his ability to draw money is ruined. Now, don't misunderstand, the WWE has ruined multiple characters and their ability to draw money, but with the amount they are paying Brock and the hope to have him strong for next year they absolutely need to put him over here to justify his continued position in the company.
I think he writes the HHH character off TV at the PPV by destroying him.
These are simply my opinions though, the best bet is on Dolph, who shockingly opened at +140, which absolutely baffles me.
I've realized though, with the way WWE lines tend to go crazy a week after opening, always hedge, no matter what, because the underdog will reach +1000 within days, and Vinny Mac has a tendency to change his mind the day of the show, and it shows in the odds flipping dramatically.Last edited by Sacrelicious; 05-05-13, 08:51 PM.Comment -
Thanks Sac, that's what I was looking for.
Book was probably thinking like I was, that they were obviously trying to push Del Rio at wrestlemania, so I thought maybe he was the next big thing. Your breakdown makes sense.Comment -
It burned me quite badly with Ryback at WM last month, I also saw the odds flip hard with the Shield/Babyface team the month before, which was not a bet I was on.
Seems to happen about once a show, all of a sudden 12 hours before the event starts a -1500 favorite all of a sudden flips to a +1000 underdog, and the reasons for this are clear, it has been decided hours before the event that the result will change, and the people in the know started placing bets. Hell, if I knew someone at +1000 would win, I'd maxi bet him and parlay him with all the chalk I could.
So lets suppose this happens once a show, and one can logically expect it happening for one pick a show, if I Maxi bet Dolph Ziggler at +140, and he was one of my 3 picks, and 48 hours later his opponent was +1200, would it not make mathematical sense to hedge on that to the point where if Ziggler lost, I would at least break even?
There is value here, and I saw value in all of the openers, but the fact of the matter is that this company is run by a crazy man who is notorious for randomly changing his mind hours before an event starts. The whole strategy I have with this openers is to look at the logical favorite, bet the living hell out of it knowing that the line will drop, and then hedge out once the public bets it to levels where it is ridiculously juiced, because the nature of the event and the booking is so volatile.Comment -
To be fair though, my math may be incorrect, not sure what would lose me more value in this case - hedging at a ridiculously inflated line on the other end, or sizing my bets differently to begin withComment -
The Del Rio thing makes sense from a rational and logical point of view, but Ziggler had "money in the bank syndrome", its this bizarre booking philosophy that they employ that is difficult to grasp.
It works something like this:
Put the MITB briefcase on someone, have everyone beat him, then have him cash it in and hope everyone forgets that he spent the last year being a jobber and actually manages to get over.
It is what, for example, ruined the career of Jack Swagger and is why his feud with Del Rio flopped and why they are probably both getting massive amounts of heat from the powers that be right now.
However, Ziggler is different in the same way Daniel Bryan was different when this happened to him, he is an EXCELLENT worker, and has the ability to get over regardless of what position they put him in.Comment -
When lines flip like that, does the new favorite always win? Considering how many people are "in the know" shouldn't most -5000 lines at match time be like -9900 or higher?Comment -
A valid question, and the answer from my small sample size, is yes.
I doubt most people are willing to lay down 4850$ to win 50$, on an offshore internet book, whatever the circumstance may be.
However, 50$ to win 500$, which you can maxi bet every 3 minutes, all the way until it is equal value, that is a bit of a different story.Last edited by Sacrelicious; 05-06-13, 12:35 AM.Comment -
inboxed you sac.Comment -
lolComment -
Current odds:
John Cena vs Ryback - WWE Championship graded with final decision as broadcast ends, see sportsbook rules section for all conditions Sun 5/19 103 John Cena (end of broadcast ruling) -900 7:00PM 104 Ryback (end of broadccast ruling) +500 Brock Lesnar vs Triple H - Steel Cage match graded with final decision as broadcast ends, see sportsbook rules section for all conditions Sun 5/19 113 Brock Lesnar (end of broadcast ruling) -1580 7:00PM 114 Triple H (end of broadcast ruling) +750 Dolph Ziggler vs Alberto Del Rio vs Jack Swagger - Triple Threat Ladder match graded with final decision as broadcast ends, see sportsbook rules section for all conditions Sun 5/19 127 Dolph Ziggler wins triple threat -1580 7:00PM 128 Del Rio / Swagger wins (end broadcast) +750 Comment -
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I'm thinking ryback
heres the scenario. The shield has been bum rushing his main event slot for weeks.
They do it again at Extreme Rules but instead of attacking ryback they attack John. He doesn't answer the 10 count and that solves the 4th member of shield and makes ryback a huge heelComment -
Should be noted that money has moved in on Ryback slightly.Comment -
Cena -530
Ryback +350
on 5dComment -
Vince got blown by Ryback backstage and Sacro is too drunk too hedge.
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No I definately hedged, as I said, you almost always have to.
Here is why I disagree with Beez, the shield is the hottest act in the company right now, pairing someone like Ryback with them would absolutely ruin the act. I might be thinking too logically here...
Money is coming in on him after last nights raw, which I will be watching tonight, thoughts to follow.Comment -
I can't imagine much though, honestly as I was maxi betting Dolph Ziggler I could not help but notice the line sometimes moved as much as 20 cents within 30 seconds of me placing a bet.Should be noted that money has moved in on Ryback slightly.Comment -
I'm curious to see the line on Cesaro/Kingston once it is released.
Look for a very large push for Cesaro soon. They re branded him after he put on a 20 minute 4 1/2 star match on Main Event last week, heard about it all week, finally got around to watching that.
They must have credited him (and rightfully so) for the quality of that match, because they changed his gimmick finally, and actually gave him a promo on RAW.
If anyone has followed his work in the indie scenes, it is about goddamn time, the guy is arguably the 3rd best worker in the company.Last edited by Sacrelicious; 05-08-13, 02:37 AM.Comment -
Shield, Lesnar, or a returning Punk in a couple months.
Lesnar is part time, they might bring him in for a show if Punk is still out, or if Ryback does not get over here, they just call Punk back early.
I'm not totally discounting the fact that Ryback can win here, but I think Cena -210 was a good bet. There is a reason why Cena only got 1 maxi bet, and Ziggler got 6.Comment
