I like
| 526 Melissa McMorrow | +160 |
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Kell is not a bum for sure, but he just seems very plain to me & with that style is just waiting to get shoe shined by devon. The line may get better though i agree, but i cap devon at about -280 in this one so -175 is still decent imo. Bol.Comment -
I like the + odds in a fight like this. I had alverado winning until that BS stoppageMike Alvarado +240 Comment -
I had him winning the first fight too, but that chin might not hold up well in this fight after all the big shots he took last time out, there are also rumors of him having a bad traning camp so i wouldnt go big on mike.Comment -
i checked all the boxing forums were did it say alverado had a bad camp? I believe you because the odds are moving against me but was this posted on the internet?Comment -
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i heard it mentioned somewhere..i think a thread on eastside, i believed it cause of that stabbing incident mike was involved in last month.Comment -
Rios is the play. Harder puncher with more stamina in a back and forth bout. Alvarado is game and will give a good account of himself before losing.Comment -
Well, I like Magdaleno and Martinez to go over 9.5. I got about half of a bet down at -250 and then 5d just dropped all of the lines from the card in China. I guess if they put them back up, bet on it.
Mags is very obviously on roids and a good, mobile boxer and excellent athlete. Deserving favorite, though it will be a test. I don't think Martinez can stop him between his skill and enhanced punch resistance. If he does, it's likely to be late. On the other side, Magdaleno has improved his KO rate lately as if by magic. However, he is still not a big finisher and Martinez has never been stopped. I don't think he's ever even been down.
We'll say $1.25 to win $0.50, though I'd bet more if I could.Comment -
Nice find. With the last loss, plus that win at $9.14.
Betting $2.00 on Rico Ramos at -175 tonight to win $1.27.
I just don't see Ramos as being washed up. Maybe he's not the most mentally tough guy on the planet, but this fight shouldn't be that big of a test for him. I've only seen a bit of Gonzalez, but Ramos looks to be a better athlete and I think Gonzalez has a lot of trouble getting through Ramos' defense. Ramos certainly has the better background and the higher level of opposition. I say Rico gets back on track here. Nice price too, as overseas books have him at -225 and -200.Comment -
I think my calculations with what that last one paid are a bit off. And now it's moved to -165. So what I'm going to do is just cheat and say I put in all of my bets at -165 and bet 2.00 to win 1.21 because that's the easiest thing to do and I need to go back to sleep.Comment -
Razor thin after five. I got it 3-2 Rico, but 3-2 Gonzales is entirely reasonable.Comment -
Wellll its a miracle of Rico wins here...Comment -
Yeah, that was a rough one. Cards were really wide to Oscar anyway, so the KD is less frustrating. I was really confident in this one and almost bet more. Oh well. Mathematically, I'm more likely to have a good weekend at poker now.Comment -
Down to $7.14, I believe.
Sprinkling a bit on the over and on Canelo to win, just in case. Main bet is Canelo by decision, at +145. Betting to win $1.00.
I think this will be a competitive fight. Obviously, I think it will go to the cards. Canelo probably doesn't have the closing ability to stop Trout, but, of course, it's possible.
My initial lean was to go with Trout. To me it's about 50/50, so of course that's nice for the dog. Canelo has good reflexes and movement, but an open stance and sometimes seems to not even care if he is hit. Trout could exploit that and then avoid being hit himself. On the other hand, Canelo throws much more impressive punches and has great punch selection and accuracy. He loves to go to the body, where Trout is often open. Canelo doesn't relentlessly move forward and, in fact is comfortable going back. However, there figure to be more moments where he is charging and could be perceived as the aggressor.
The reason I'm taking Canelo is the judging. Particularly in a fight that might be so subjective. We might already assume that, with a young star who could easily generate tens of millions, and who will have crowd support, the judges would favor the guy. Even more so in a finesse vs. power matchup where the star is the latter. I think a lot of what happens in Texas fights is just random incompetence, which would favor Trout (because of the + money). But in this case, one of the judges is Laurence Cole, a shitty ref who has been suspended for unethical conduct. He is the son of the head of the state athletic commission. He has a day job selling insurance to boxing and MMA promoters for their events. No shit. The rooster_eater has judged FIVE fights in the past ten years. All 4-6 rounders. I don't like to go TOO far with the conspiracy type shit, but boxing is boxing. This guy is not even close to being qualified for the assignment, but if anyone on earth knows who is supposed to win here, it's this sack of shit.
So, if we have the possibility that Trout needs to win 8-4 or 9-3 to take a decision, Canelo looks pretty appealing. I wouldn't make this play just on the basis of attempting to read the judges and so forth. As I said, I think it'll be competitive. But that little extra edge nudges me to Canelo.Comment -
Correction. Boxrec listings now have Cole reffing the fight, rather than judging it. Stanley Christodoulou, who has tons of experience both judging and reffing, was listed as the ref and is now listed as a judge. Tend to think this is good news for Trout, but news for me. I still expect judges to favor Canelo, but we'll see.Comment -
canelo/trout o11.5 @ -130 on sportsbookComment -
Canelo at -170 and i absolutely stole Andres Gutierrez @ -280..Comment -
anyone taking a shot with Steve Cunningham at +450? Tyson Fury is huge but its his 1st fight in the US, i'm taking a shot with CunninghamComment -
+$1.50 = $8.64.
Fury, probably a poor bet, but I'll take it. Though, on the other hand, if one of the worst case scenarios happens and you still win, maybe that's good. Oh well.
Danny Garcia +507 to decision Zab. I think people have gotten carried away because of the famous chicken dance. Zab is not really that easy to stop. Even the chicken dance was him trying to get to his feet and continue. He recently went 12 and got a nod against one of the most feared punchers in the sport, in Matthysse. He's looked fit, possibly thanks to PEDs, which aid punch resistance greatly. Training with Pernell might have had some effect on his D. His head is said to be together. In other words, all of the reasons this is thought to be an early stoppage have some holes in them. Plus, matchup wise, Danny's looping shots, esp. the left hook, are not really what gets to Zab. Garcia has shown an improved, straight right that is actually straight, which worries me. But I still like the price. I expect Danny's class to prevail. Plus, it is better for the business of boxing if he wins. A close or controversial decision for him would really be win/win.
Kind of like the over too and recommended it to someone by PM, but I never actually bet it and the price dropped a lot, so here we are. Might put a little there if it goes back up.
.5 to win 2.53Comment -
Khan vs Diaz over 6.5 rounds -160. Get it while you can.Comment -
-130 on 5d. What is your thinking? Khan has become more patient and cautious?
Considering Carlos Molina made it that far easily, might be a good idea. Diaz has been stopped early a couple times unlike Molina, but then Molina was undersized and outclassed. Perhaps Khan just looks to pummel with speed from distance.Comment -
Appreciate your thoughts as always. You're one of the few who posts consistently thought-out analysis for their picks, and possibly the only one for boxing, and it's always nice to see. I took Garcia by decision earlier, too. I like it a lot. I think it should be closer to +270.Comment -
I'm intrigued by it.
I expect Khan to still be the same old fighter, but have a little more caution in his step. Virgil Hunter might have him slow down a little too because his style of flurry, rest, repeat has gotten him in trouble in the past.
Also, Khan is the kind of guy who hurts you through an accumulation of punishment. I don't even count the Zab KO because he was trying to bait the ref.
Took Khan a while to KO the little Molina too.
I just feel that if it's under, it's because Diaz blew him out.
Over looks good and 7.5 rounds seems fast enough to make it through.
Diaz getting a lot of hype now because of the Shawn Porter fight.... IMO, he's still a fighter learning.Comment -
Double $
. Khan vs Diaz over 6.5 and Khan to win! Tiny play on Garcia later tonight as well.
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I can't bet it (Thanks Obama!), but outside of the US you can lock up Danny Garcia at + money vs. Khan. I'm not as dismissive of AK as some people are, but that's still nuts. Obviously, you have to be willing to keep the money tied up for a long time, though.Comment -
What's the best resource for finding all upcoming (bettable, preferably) boxing matches? I don't follow boxing as much as I used to, but I have some extra time on my hands due to the lack of upcoming UFC events, so I'd like to catch up on it.Comment -
Are you betting the mayweather fight this saturday?Comment
