Just Boxing

[Boxscout]

Soliman down in the second, hurt again in the third. Over bettors must be shitting themselves, having laid -700. Sturm has it all but won.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Absolute robbery!!! Ray Charles could have done a better job scoring that fight. Sturm won that fight. For everyone that bet on Sturm, you have my deepest sympathy. These judges must have went to the same school as Adelaide Byrd! Absolute BOLLOCKS!!!

[JoshB]

dam i got buried on that one.

[JoshB]

Molina/Spinks Over 8.5. Opened at like -120, now -145 on 5D. Better in other places.

Do linemakers not know about boxrec or am I really missing something here? Molina is a huge favorite. He has six KOs. He has literally never KOed someone on this level. His best KO is a guy who is 12-8 and 36 years old and that was a TKO in 7.

Spinks KOed last time out, but hung tough through 7 rounds after a bad knockdown in the first. Was knocked down twice more before it was stopped. Scrapped, wrestled and nullified and pulled himself up like he had bet the over himself. Is Molina going to flatten him three times like Bundrage did?

Spinks KOing Molina is barely part of the equation at all.

Seriously, I wonder if I'm missing something.

i agree it is very strange. the not molina inside the distance prop is +178!!

& after losing my ass on sturm i'm sooo tempted to chase...

[JoshB]

meh i'm gonna stay away

[Boxscout]

Just a reminder, since I made this pick in like my second post. Frampton vs. Martinez is coming up. The price is starting to get very steep in US books. But, if oddschecker is up to date, there's still some great value if you can access others. He's -400 on several of those sites, but he's -850 at pinnacle and -750 at 5d, which is probably a good sign for Frampton.

To summarize my earlier post, Kiko is a tough guy and a decent pro. Frampton is world class with a chance to be world champion. Clear advantages to Frampton in: power, speed, foot speed, head, foot and body movement, punch selection, agility and defense. Political advantage to Frampton in a big way. Modest advantage to Frampton in punch output.

It's possible that Kiko has some advantages in heart and stamina, but it's possible that he doesn't.

[illmatick]

Frampton

watch what happens when my ninja Scott Quigg drags him into the 9th

[JoshB]

under 7.5 rds prop @ -350 for the broner/reese fight looks pretty good. i expect poor reese to get litzau'd.

also 5dimes put up a line for the alexander/brook fight (even tho it's postponed once again) & alexander is -160 which has some good value imo, i think he should be like -300 for this one, it's a big step up for brook.

[Boxscout]

Yeah, looking hard at both of those. Hate laying that much on an under, but it looks like Rees is made for Broner. I'll probably figure out a way to make some kind of recreational bet on that fight. That might be it. Hard to see much real value. Maybe I'll put like literally $2 on Rees at 25 to 1. I don't know.

Been looking a lot at Kell and Devon. But now Floyd is saying Devon might be his next opponent. Tough for Kell, if that happens. I've also heard from reliable sources (ie, anonymous people on message boards) that the match is selling terribly in Detroit (who could have imagined?) and they might be trying to bury it for that reason. Just somethings to consider before you tie your money up. Not saying it's a bad bet.

Francois Botha is fighting a rugby player in Australia. The line is bouncing around between Botha -110 and +130. I like Botha if you can get him into +. Just a small play, because this is kind of a farce. But the rugby player, Sonny Bill Williams, has a boxing resume that makes Kimbo's look good. 5 opponents who have an average of 3.6 wins. Botha is in relatively good shape. It's going to look like Hercules fighting your garbage man, but the garbage man still has the skill of a high-world class fighter and Hercules is a part timer. Props to Sonny Bill for taking this fight though, because he was making decent money beating up absolute cans and could have just kept doing that. The difference in skill here here is just going to be vast. Not to mention, Sonny Bill has never been hit by anything like what Botha has, even at 44. I'd compare it to say, a current track star who played some football in high school, trying to cover TO.

[illmatick]

Framton vs Quigg

lets talk about that


yorkshire doesn't breed no bitches

[Boxscout]

I was listening to Buncey's podcast and he was suggesting they might postpone a match until the both have gone off onto the world stage and had some success and made money there, which I think would be wise. Normally, with the trajectory of their careers, a match at this point would be to determine who goes on to fight for world titles and who remains domestic or Euro level. But if they're both that good, why should they do that? If they can both become international stars, maybe even each win a belt, then they can then have the domestic showdown in a couple years at it will be huge.

[Boxscout]

Freely acknowledge that SBW looked much better than I thought possible and was ahead on the cards.

However, they decided to change it from a 12 rounder to 10 in the 9th, with SBW ahead. Listed by bookies as a 12 rounder. Listed by boxrec as a 12 rounder. Announcers thought it was 12. Botha's trainer yelling about how it is 12. Aussie crowd booing. It was for a belt.

SBW out on his feet in the 10th. Barely makes it out. Fight is over. He's still in a daze in the post fight interviews.

Botha pretty clearly was following the game plan he laid out before the fight, to take SBW into "deep water" and get him out. It was working perfectly. He just didn't realize they had the option of declaring the fight over whenever they saw fit.

Yay for boxing! Oh well, you know this kind of bullshit is an element when you bet it.

[hougigo]

Freely acknowledge that SBW looked much better than I thought possible and was ahead on the cards.

However, they decided to change it from a 12 rounder to 10 in the 9th, with SBW ahead. Listed by bookies as a 12 rounder. Listed by boxrec as a 12 rounder. Announcers thought it was 12. Botha's trainer yelling about how it is 12. Aussie crowd booing. It was for a belt.

SBW out on his feet in the 10th. Barely makes it out. Fight is over. He's still in a daze in the post fight interviews.

Botha pretty clearly was following the game plan he laid out before the fight, to take SBW into "deep water" and get him out. It was working perfectly. He just didn't realize they had the option of declaring the fight over whenever they saw fit.

Yay for boxing! Oh well, you know this kind of bullshit is an element when you bet it.

From what I hear, Botha had him, had it been 2 more rounds, Botha would've KO'd him. No wonder they changed it to a 10 rounder in the 9th round and cut it down to a minute and half round.
If they're going to be corrupt, at least be subtle about it.

[Sato]

From what I hear, Botha had him, had it been 2 more rounds, Botha would've KO'd him. No wonder they changed it to a 10 rounder in the 9th round and cut it down to a minute and half round.
If they're going to be corrupt, at least be subtle about it.

So what happens to your money? 12 to a 10 rounder. Whats bookies take on this?

[Boxscout]

He was out on his feet and survived by clinching till he got a point deducted, though the ref waited til there was like 20 seconds left, so that the penalty actually gave him a beneficial rest. I don't know that this was shady though. The ref just kind of sucked. He also let Botha hit SBW on the break blatantly 3 times before deducting.

I would have been shocked if he survived 2 more. I had already been surprised by his boxing ability and intelligence, but you very rarely see someone that hurt survive.

Second hand, people have said that SBW and the promoter always claimed it was ten rounds, though it came as a surprise to Botha and it was listed everywhere as 12.





Oh well. As I've said before, you don't have to deal with missed free throws and pick sixes constantly in boxing. So that's the trade off. They save it all up for the grand fist penetrating.

[Boxscout]

So what happens to your money? 12 to a 10 rounder. Whats bookies take on this?

Mine are marked losers at the moment on 5d. Sent them an e-mail, but don't expect it to change. Heard of some down under books refunding.

I'd rather take the bad losses than have the few books that take this action decide it's not worth the hassle, though.

[hougigo]

So what happens to your money? 12 to a 10 rounder. Whats bookies take on this?

Honestly, I don't think they'll do crap. I was going to put down on him, but then didn't when I heard Botha was paid off.
Now I'm glad I didn't because that was a farce

[Sacrelicious]

Had money on Botha.

First Akop gets a point deducted in Bellator by the ref and that penetrates up that bet.

Then this nonsense.



Ah well, at least I hit 3 winners on Bellator, still an irritating night.

[Sacrelicious]

Oh yeah, not to mention my money on IU. Up 10 points until the last 2 minutes, lose it with .9 seconds left. The hell?!?!

Irritating night...

[Boxscout]

Had money on Botha.

First Akop gets a point deducted in Bellator by the ref and that penetrates up that bet.

Then this nonsense.



Ah well, at least I hit 3 winners on Bellator, still an irritating night.

I was seriously thinking, "how could this happen? I didn't see Sacrelicious on this play."

[Sacrelicious]

<--- Mush of the century.

[Boxscout]

Nah. It just seems like you get screwed in these lolboxing scenarios. Welcome to the club. I have yet to be on the right side of one of these.

Saturday Miskirtchian vs. Evensen. I like the over at -260. Could bet this blind just based on boxrec. Nobody moving up in weight. They have had KO's in 29% of their fights. However, though each has lost twice, neither has ever been KOed. It's a big fight for both and it would be surprising for one of them to give in easily.

Actually did watch what footage I could find. They're both volume punchers, but they don't really throw themselves into it. It could be bad news if they both just go crazy trying to win a volume war, but Evensen, at least, is an all around boxer and these are europeans.

I also like a significantly smaller play on Evanson, which I made at -140. That's worsening. But it opened at -280 and I think we might be looking at an over correction. Evanson has reasonable defense and moves in and out, while in the few rounds I found on the other guy, he is more just purely about standing there or moving in and outhrowing you. Evenson also has nice punch selection.

I meant to keep track of wins and loses, but I just forgot after the Uchiyama one. Gonna start now.

$2.60 to win $1.00 on the over.
$0.77 to win $0.50 on Evenson.

[Vaughany]

wont it be voided anyway?

[Grabaka]

I cant believe this shit.

[Boxscout]

Not by 5d. Already axed them. They said that, since they posted no O/U on the fight, the bets stand. On boxing boards, people are saying that various overseas books are voiding it.

Another aspect of this is that, I'm sure crap like this is why so few books take boxing action. Not enough money for all the headaches and angry customers.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Not by 5d. Already axed them. They said that, since they posted no O/U on the fight, the bets stand. On boxing boards, people are saying that various overseas books are voiding it.

I remember when paddy refunded the losing wagers for pac/bradley.

These brit books probably booked next to nothing on he fight and refunding wagers was a +EV pr move if anything.

Dont really expect 5dimes o do anything

[sideloaded]

i thought I saw a o/u

[Grabaka]

$50.00

$182.50

Pending

2/9/13 9:00pm Boxing Fighting 251 Silverio Ortiz +365* vs Humberto Soto

What do you say?

[Boxscout]

Nothing of value to say but good luck. Didn't you just hit on Soliman? 2 in a row would be sweet.

Edit: Lots now saying Bet365 is refunding that bet. Sounds as if they are paying SBW bets too, though not sure. What has this stupid country ever given me other than peace, non-gambling freedom and prosperity?

[Grabaka]

$34.00

$447.10

Pending

2/9/13 4:00pm Boxing Fighting 101 Patrick Mendy +1315* vs Patrick Nielsen

[Grabaka]

Nothing of value to say but good luck. Didn't you just hit on Soliman? 2 in a row would be sweet.

Edit: Lots now saying Bet365 is refunding that bet. Sounds as if they are paying SBW bets too, though not sure. What has this stupid country ever given me other than peace, non-gambling freedom and prosperity?

I did. Hopefully one of these hits.

[hougigo]

$34.00

$447.10

Pending

2/9/13 4:00pm Boxing Fighting 101 Patrick Mendy +1315* vs Patrick Nielsen

What do you see in Mendy? Just wondering.

$50.00

$182.50

Pending

2/9/13 9:00pm Boxing Fighting 251 Silverio Ortiz +365* vs Humberto Soto

What do you say?

Very good IMO. Soto isn't a JWW and he hasn't looked all that good in the past.

[Boxscout]

Mendy's hanging in fine through 2. You certainly seem to have gotten some value.

[Boxscout]

Never mind.

[Sacrelicious]

Putting a sprinkle on Ortiz.