Also, in the event that anyone cares, for record keeping purposes, I'm going to say I have $10.00 on Frampon at -530. That's about like real life, though I got some in at better prices.
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nice work
good to see frampton pass his first big test.Comment -
Thanks, Josh. I wasn't going to count the Uchiyama fight, but then I thought 1) If it had lost, I would have to count it. 2) Was a slight winner in the middle stuff anyway 3) Most importantly, I doubt anyone cares.
Uchi +$2.38
Evenanson loses, but over +.23
Carlos + $1.88
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+$4.49Comment -
Well played, yet again.Comment -
why does broner handpick these shitty opponents?Comment -
he's fighting reese cause ricky burns wouldn't take the fightComment -
Grabaka should like this one. $0.25 on Tony Thompson to beat David Price at +650 for $1.62. Was +700 on 5d and is at Pinny, but that's still above average. I don't know that it will get any better. As it is, they're giving Thompson less of a chance that Martin Murray fighting Sergio.
Didn't really come up with this one on my own. Dwyer makes some good points here. I won't hedge it though because I'm a big man who doesn't afraid of anything. Kind of a win/win, since I hope Price becomes a mainstream star and slows the death of the sport.
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Someone actually intelligently breaking down a potential fight? Man, I wish that happened in MMA, I'm used to drunks who cant pronounce a fighters name and teenagers in luchador masks.Comment -
dwyer is an idiot, always bets the black fighter no matter what. Makes his own odds up and is a tout.
thinks he can beat the nfl market by reading rudimentary stats. Then sells his coin flipsComment -
I don't know about his NFL stuff, but I've always kind of assumed it was not good. I think he might have a bit of a racial bias, and I considered that here. The most troubling thing about Dwyer for me, though, is his use of the word 'literally.' I enjoy his stuff, though I can't remember really following one of his picks before.
However, in this instance, I think he makes a pretty good case. Really won't mind at all if I lose this, because I want Price to be the real deal. A white, British, HW who puts up spectacular KOs becoming a super star could push the death of boxing back ten years. But we don't yet know that he is the real deal. For him to be getting a level of respect comparable to Sergio's at this point is just wrong. Especially given that these are big heavyweights and Thompson can punch.
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love the simpsons.
Dwyer is a weirdo, but I think this day in age you are almost always getting value betting the underdog in HW boxing. Simply too much juice laid on by the bookmakers.Comment -
I do.Grabaka should like this one. $0.25 on Tony Thompson to beat David Price at +650 for $1.62. Was +700 on 5d and is at Pinny, but that's still above average. I don't know that it will get any better. As it is, they're giving Thompson less of a chance that Martin Murray fighting Sergio.
Didn't really come up with this one on my own. Dwyer makes some good points here. I won't hedge it though because I'm a big man who doesn't afraid of anything. Kind of a win/win, since I hope Price becomes a mainstream star and slows the death of the sport.
Im easyyyy.
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Moar dog. Kendall Holt +400 vs. Lamont Peterson. 25 cents to win a buck. I think the match up favors Peterson pretty well. But Holt has 3 things working for him. 1) He can KO just about anyone. 2) Peterson has been off for 14 months. 3) This is Peterson's first fight back from a PED bust.
I don't say much about MMA because I don't know much, but I did warn somebody here about Overeem. Not on the bet in general, but just on this specific point. If taking steroids makes you better, then not taking them makes you worse. There's a hitch, in that we're not 100% sure Peterson is off them and I don't think he's being put through anything like the program Overeem was. But there's a pretty decent chance he is off the juice, or on less effective juice or something. Basically, we've got 3 potential monkey wrenches working for us.
With three live dogs coming up, I also bought this lotto ticket. Holt, Tony Thompson, Fernando Guerrero $.05 parlay to win $11.66.Comment -
Jesus. I sometimes think I get too carried away with favorites, but here we go again. My thing with dogs is that I like them when there is uncertainty. If the answer to a question is "we don't know" then I like having plus money. Here, Delvin Rodriguez is coming of a loss to Trout that could have been soul crushing. Delvin's had some "hard luck" losses and that was his chance to show he's better than his record on Showtime and he got schooled and was unentertaining. Where is his head at? We don't know. Seems like a bad time to move up in wait against a gritty guy who has a good punch. Will the weight move bother him? We don't know.
GeorgeTahdooahnippah over Delvin Rodgriguez at +600. 20 cents to win $1.20
Also, since I'm keeping track again... had a full unit on Fernando Guerrero. Actually had a lot of little parlays with him closing out, but BOL canceled the bets when they moved the match. Anyway, I'm just going to use the line available in the US at the moment, which is +525. So $1.00 to win $5.25 on Fernando.Comment -
Big whiff there. Down .20 to $4.29. Betting $2.00 on Golota at -230 to win 87 cents. Reluctant to bet on a circus after the Botha/SBW uber-fiasco. But this time, we're betting on the lead freak in the freak show. Golota is easily the more accomplished boxer and his inactivity is less dire. He fought in Oct. 09, while Saleta last fought in '06 in a place called Riverridge Restaurant.
Obviously, these guys are just getting together for a pay day and you always wonder about Golota. He's already complaining about training. But this should be a pressure free exhibition match.Comment -
Was kind of holding off on posting this one because I wanted the line to keep moving to Scott and you guys have me paranoid. However, Malik Scott just dipped to +135, then went back up to +145 so I don't think it'll go past the +160 point again.
Anyway, $1.00 to win $1.45 on Scott over Glazkov. For at least one aspect of this fight, we don't even need to know what sport it is. X just had a big win on national TV. Y has been on TV but is considered boring and wasn't impressive. Where's the value going to be?
I think these guys are of comparable quality, but it's a good matchup for Scott. They both rely on the jab a lot, but Scott gets his off more quickly and from a much greater range. Glazkov likes to move in, set and throw his jab with a little more on it, but in the time he does that, Scott could have stuck him and moved. In general, Glazkov likes to work from closer range and Scott is great at denying that.
Glazkov is a smart fighter who adjusts very well and he might find a way to get to Scott near the middle of the fight. But his power is overrated. He hits hard, but it's not like he's going to KO Scott the minute he gets close. I don't think he really has 1 punch, or 1 combo power at this level. So what I foresee is Scott bagging the early rounds and then a competitive affair after that. So we should be spotted 2-3 rounds in a ten rounder and have the plus money. Not bad.
Would make this a bigger play, but it's being put on in NY by Main Events, which is Glazkov's promoter. That's not the only way in which this fight is a repeat of Cunningham/Adamek. And every time I think of that fight, I have to go shoot some rats at the city dump.Comment -
I'm taking a moderate light play on both Holt and Golota.
Very light plays on Thompson and Scott.
Good luck this weekend!
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Contemplating Perez/Hovhannesyan over 9.5 at -205 as well..Comment -
Currently -170 on 5d. I'm watching these guys now... still trying to figure out what, if anything to do with this one.Comment -
Damn, Holt is up to +310 now. Thompson has hit +1000.Comment -
I've got it scored 2-1 Holt after 3, Holt is holding is own.Comment -
Spoke a bit too soon there...Comment -
lol, a 45 year old Andrew Golota is back after 3+ years off to face another old dude Przemyslaw Saleta. -275 on Golota, this saleta guy hasn't fought for 7 years
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Anyone know where to watch Golota/Saleta tomorrow?Comment -
Grandpa fightttttComment -
I'm on Golota. No lines for the over/under, unfortunately.Comment -
I can't believe this dude tries to sell his picks. He does bar Priog/Jacobs where he picked Pirog.
His method of betting though, in his defense, is pick the underdog. Then he tries to look for reasons to validate his pick and it's value.
I think it can hit the over, but winning SU in Price's home.... too muchComment -
Perhaps so. However, the way I look at these things is that I want to hear any intelligent opinions. They might do something as simple as touch upon an angle or piece of information you had missed. Maybe some guy is coming off a long layoff and you hadn't noticed and the only correct thing a pundit does is point that out to you. It's worth it. So, I can make fun of Dwyer's terrible habit of hedging bets in really bad ways, or I can look for stuff that is helpful to me. Here, I think he's almost objectively right insofar as nobody really knows much about Price's chin and stamina. If anything, his chin is somewhat questionable due to some amateur KOs.
Anyway, Thompson is up to +1000. If Price KOs him in 14 seconds, I'll still believe that's a bad line.Comment -
Thompson to win: +1000
Thompson inside distance: +965
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Damn just saw that Thompson weighed in @ 262, hope hes not just showing up for a paycheck.Comment -
Yeah... saw that too. Cause for concern to be sure.Comment -
Well, good luck boys. Think I might throw a bit down on the over, +155, not too much, just a sprinkle.Comment -
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