Domino ************!
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I think Grabaka went on him as well, I even threw on another 20 bucks when he hit +1000 last night.
Night is off to an awesome start, my friends.Last edited by Sacrelicious; 02-23-13, 05:23 PM.Comment -
nice hit!Comment -
the way price went down you would have thought it was tony thompson from the top rope with a folding chair.......it was more like an off balance cuffing/grazing punch behind the ear(that might as well have been an exocet missile)......lmao....
congrats to all who took a flyer on the old man....Comment -
It's almost as if there were big questions about his chin...
One thing I'm learning though, is never underestimate the fervor of support for these domestic guys. Price closed at +1250. Similar thing happened with Mundine. Could have won almost twice as much on both of those.Comment -
Yeah that was at best a clumsy hook, I have no idea what happened there, no idea at all... Oh well, I'll take it.Comment -
Actually lost 62 cents on here last week, though in irrelevant real life, I won enough with thompson to have a pretty good day. Still up $3.67.
As I feared, Scott was horribly robbed vs. Glazkov, maybe the worst of the big three Main Events robberies on NBC (Cunningham and Chambers being the the other 2). At least Adamek threw pointless flurries at the end of rounds against Cunningham. At least that's something to point to. There was just no way on earth to give Glazkov 6 rounds, as one judge did. On top of that, they had them fighting in a ring about the size of a sandbox.
I'll gripe about it, but also should learn. It's nice to say Scott was a good bet at + money because everyone but the judges saw him winning easily. But the bet still doesn't get paid and, as it turns out, I was almost drawing dead. So how can that be a good bet?
Main Events know what they are doing. I doubt it's a coincidence that all three of these guys they brought in were slick, outside boxers. They chose guys who could not KO their man and who would try to win decisions with a style that is predictable. And while I do not believe judges are bribed directly, promoters have influence over which judges are chosen. Pretty easy to run with it from there.
Bet "Magic" Matt Hatton in his basketball game against Chris "The Heat" Heerden at +425. It's +400. I thought it was pretty thin at +425, so now it's pretty thin shaved down a bit. Still, Heerden opened at only -260 before shooting up over -600. I hesitated betting Heerden and missed that opener because Heerden's defense is, how you say, not so good. Hatton is the cleaner, more polished puncher. Heerden has numerous advantages and his motion will probably be enough to cover his ass defensively against someone on Hatton's level. Still... reminds me a bit of some recent matches like Brian Vera's win over the skilled Dzinziruk. ALL the latter had to do was avoid the overhand right. Everything else was in his favor. Nope. Holes are holes. It's not like these guys leave them intentionally and then can be like, "oh I'm fighting a better opponent now, I should stop voluntarily getting clocked in the face all the time."
.25 on Hatton +400 to win 1.00Comment -
Too tired to do much of a writeup, but neither Abril nor Simba have been KOed. I don't think either has even been down. Abril is still the favorite and doesn't have much power. It's going to be an awkward fight, with some headbutt concerns. But over 10.5 at -180 is a nice value on BOL. It's as high as -275 on eurobooks.
$2.00 to win $1.11.Comment -
Got burned on Scott last weekend, all good though. I like the over play, also contemplating an over on Dib/Gradovich tonight.Comment -
Ill take a tiny stab at Gradovich.Comment -
I made a small play on the over for that fight, gives me something to watch tonight.
Might even throw a couple bucks on Gradovich.Comment -
Just FYI, Gradovich line has move from something like +250 to +170. Forget the details.
Phase 2 of the Hatton bet is to hit the over, which unfortunately we get a relatively bad line at with -320. I wonder if I slept through a move on 5d, though it's only -275 and -300 in the free world. Still, I see plenty of value.
Anywho, the huge favorite, van Heerden simply is not stopping Matt Hatton. Hatton can endure incredible punishment. See his fight against Brook, which he was actually injured through the majority of. And he got off the canvas in the 9th, with the injury and zero chance of winning. He is a survivor of an actual human sacrifice, during which thousands of savage Aztecs howled for his blood as a heathen priest name Canelo failed to deliver it. Van Heerden doesn't hit like either of those guys.
Van Heerden has shown a nice chin too, but I think there's still a chance of Hatton finding a home for a straight right and breaking him down. I think that's more likely than a van Heerden KO. So, there's independent value in the Hatton bet, but it's also going to cover a bit of this one if Hatton gets the KO. A tiny bit.
On top of all this, what power these guys do have is not brutal, stoppage power. So in the very unlikely event of a KO, it still has a chance to come in the last round and a half.
So I am going to parlay this with every bet through next year's Super Bowl, including the random MMA plays I'm tailing from you guys. But here I'll say $6.00 to win $1.87 on an undercover cop.Comment -
Actually just noticed they have props on that fight, which is a bit unusual. So I'm using some of "not van Heerden ITD" at -391 as well.
If you want my 95% Lock of The Century of The Month, there it is.Comment -
Might be certified pound worthy,
Lock it up, boys.
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Van Heerden wins by UD. God, sweating a "not-ITD" bet on which you laid a big price in a 12 round match is a miserable experience. If the ESB forumites were judges, would have won both bets. Still, decent start to the day.Comment -
Didn't watch Borgere/Abril but, based on all the griping about how terrible a fight it was, sounds like it was an easy win full of the forecasted awkwardness. Won $2.73 on the day. Up $6.40.Comment -
the head butts caused a nasty cut on richard's forhead which put the over in jeopardy. luckily shariff couldn't land anything of consequence to worsen it, so it stayed under control.Comment -
Howdty Scout, can not help but notice that Hopkins/Cloud under 9.5 is +425... am I the only one that sees value there?Comment -
I don't dislike it. Always a chance of B-Hop's mauling opening a cut, and I guess Cloud could stop him, though he'd be the first to do so.
I'm taking another under. Magomed Abdusalamov vs Bisbal, under 5.5 -300. Generically, I hate this play. Specifically I like it. They have a similar style. They like loading up and looking to KO the other guy, without too much concern for defense, nullification and so forth. Mogo is 16-0, with 16 KO's. All 1st or 2nd rounders, except one 3rd and one 4th. Plus, McCline had him hurt and down and Bisbal can punch too. Did some parlays. I just kind of inherently dislike laying this price on an under, so I didn't go too crazy with it. $1.50 to win $.50Comment -
I'm just using dollars instead of units.
In real life my units are Fabergé eggs that I bet with a Saudi prince.Comment -
im an idiot but I took B Hop +150 and cloud itdComment -
Was going to hold off on this because they have eyes everywhere. But basically everyone I've seen finds the Thruman/Zevack line crazy. It was +700 on Paddy. It's moving down, but it bumped up to +550 on 5d. I can't see it getting better.
$.50 to win $2.75.Comment -
holy shit lol
that mago fight was so close to being over 5 1/2 roundsComment -
mago is a bad assComment -
Was starting to sweat a little, but after the damage in the 4th I figured it was pretty unlikely to go another 1.5. If not for that, I'd have been even more uncomfortable.
Longest fight of Mogo's career and the under cashes, lol. I'd like to watch Bisbal again too.Comment -
Up to +650 on 5d. Where does all this action on these big favorites come from? Parlays, I know. But wow.
I mean, if you look on boxing forums, the vast majority are giving Zaveck a decent shot here and, in this case, I figure they're right. Kind of slipped up here, as with Price and as with Mundine. I swear, THIS time, I've finally learned my lesson. Never underestimate the power of hype. Not to say Thurmon is just hype. I'm high on him. But this line is obviously driven by hype.Comment -
Even last week.
I threw Fury -600 over Cunningham into some parlays. Hedged with the lulz to be won if the two Brit saviors are upset by yanks back to back. The problem is that Steve presents no power threat at all, so Fury doesn't even have to worry about it. I can see him frustrating Fury and making him look bad, but Fury is pretty slick for a gigantic honky. So Cunningham is going to have to beat a reasonably skilled and quick guy who is six inches taller and probably 30 pounds heavier and who has license to charge forward with impunity exclusively by slickness and without "running" in the judges eyes. Tall order.
$3.00 to win 50 cent.
Bradley by 12 round decision -170. As I said in his thread, I'm largely tailing DDD, who found this bet posted a bit earlier than usual. Euro books had it -175 by decision or TD, but five dimes was shrewd enough to leave us in fear of Bradley's butts. Anyway, not too complicated. I think this is easily the most likely outcome. I'd like to be covered for cuts, but people seem to be getting a bit carried away with that issue. It's still a fairly uncommon event, and Proko is an inch shorter, so that offers a bit of protection.
$1.70 to win $1.00
Pounding Vargas to defeat Lucky Boy Omotoso. In athleticism, they are fairly close. But Omotoso is crude with his offence and footwork, though I like his fluid guard. Vargas is a very classy fighter to my eye. One key, for example, is that Vargas keeps his chin well protected, which impedes a path for the more powerful Omotoso. Vargas will just out time, out position and outwork Omotoso and should cruise to victory. Vargas used work rate and intelligence to beat Josesito Lopez in a similar matchup, though the HBO crew kept expecting Lopez to take over. Vargas just wouldn't allow it. By contrast, it's very unlikely that any of Omotoso's opponents have been full time fighters. Not saying they are all cans, just that they are middle pro level guys who probably work construction or as manicurists. Insurance policy: both fight for Top Rank. Jesse is a Mexican Olympian rooted in Los Angeles. Lucky Boy is from Nigeria. I wonder who Top Rank expects to make more money off of...
$4.70 to win $2.00Last edited by Boxscout; 03-16-13, 08:09 AM.Comment -
just put up on 5dimes:
Devon Alexander -175
Kell Brook +135
i like devon to win here.
Kell brook just seems like a guy that can only fight 1 way & hasn't had to kick it into another gear very much in his fights.
carson jones simply kept his hight guard up & applied pressure & because no one had made kell fight fight going backwards that much he gassed & almost got knocked out.
Meanwhile devon has been pushed back by the likes matthyse & maidana yet didnt fall apart like kell. Devon is much more tested & more proven, & i think he can give more angles & has more variety to his game than kell. what do you think scout?Comment -
I tend to agree with you though every time I watch these guys I find myself wavering. I don't think Kell is a hypejob. I respect his ability. Also, I think people make a bit too much out of the Carson Jones fight. Jones isn't really a bum. He's a guy who has made improvements from earlier in his career, and he's also a very different style from Alexander. Yes, if Kell was really a world beater, he should have handled Jones more easily. But at the same time, I'm not going to get carried away about how it pertains to this fight.
The main thing that makes me lean to Alexander is, as you said, experience and polish. He should be the favorite. Not sure how strongly I favor him yet though. This line has been up for a long time at BOL and, of course, overseas without moving much. So there's no rush. Maybe a bunch of brit money comes in on Kell, though I suck at predicting line movements.Comment -
win $3.00, up to $9.40. Some light plays. Really busy with other stuff this week.
Arthur Abraham to beat Stieglitz by decision, +131. Just betting $.76 to win $1.00. Probably should do even less, since I didn't spend a ton of time on it. Oh well. AA's power hasn't really followed him up. Stieglitz is a tough out, but I felt like AA was in control of the last fight. Maybe cutting it a bit close, but I think that was a very good fight for Stieg and a poor-ish one for AA. Don't know that Stieg can do much better.
Fun fact. Judge Cesar Ramos had Stieglitz vs. Abraham I 116-112 in favor of Abraham. Guess what Cesar Romos will be doing tomorrow.Last edited by Boxscout; 03-23-13, 06:15 AM.Comment
