MD's House of Winnerz

MD · 07-09-13, 04:35 PM

Also, I took Cain -195. I don't see that ever being better.

**bjpenn85** · 07-09-13, 04:55 PM

Mee 2.

MD · 07-09-13, 04:58 PM

After rewatching that Silva/Weidman fight a few times, I suggest you all do the same. I didn't notice it much the first time, but Weidman actually beat the shit out of Silva on the feet, in both rounds. Silva barely landed anything significant, and Weidman was bombing Silva on the chin on multiple occasions. The fight wasn't close and neither was the standup. One judge gave Silva round one by the way, LOL.

**PunisherIND** · 07-09-13, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by MD

Also, I took Cain -195. I don't see that ever being better.

I'm on cayenne as well. Got it at -185 (oddessa special) and some more at -195.

**bjpenn85** · 07-09-13, 05:26 PM

He hit him a couple of times, on the ground. And those shots connected, without a doubt. Def won the first round. Last part of first round silva landed some solid leg kicks, which he continued to land in the second round. So if those kicks give points, silva def was in the fight.But, he almost didnt land any headshots, which is surprising. Wonder if he could. Maybe he looked for the KO shots. Who knows. Beat the shit out of silva? mehh.. but i get your point. Im very surprised silva didnt land a single shot to the head or the body.

**Beelzebubzy** · 07-09-13, 05:29 PM

Likewise
parlayed it with alpha male combo mendes and Benavidez

MD · 07-09-13, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

He hit him a couple of times, on the ground. And those shots connected, without a doubt. Def won the first round. Last part of first round silva landed some solid leg kicks, which he continued to land in the second round. So if those kicks give points, silva def was in the fight.But, he almost didnt land any headshots, which is surprising. Wonder if he could. Maybe he looked for the KO shots. Who knows. Beat the shit out of silva? mehh.. but i get your point. Im very surprised silva didnt land a single shot to the head or the body.

He landed a few shots to the body, but his most significant strikes by far were his leg kicks. Weidman clearly felt them. Weidman's punches to the head were far more telling, though. Silva could definitely land head shots on Weidman on the feet, he could light him up all night and KO him if he wanted to, but not with his hands down by his waist. The catch here, though, is that if his hands aren't down by his waist, he will get taken down almost immediately.

**bjpenn85** · 07-09-13, 05:47 PM

Anyway, so much clowning as silva did in this fight, you almost have to get Koed. This was more clowning than ever. This was beyond a strategy to lure someone in, this was outright stupidity. I wonder if he can fight conservatively without clowning and beat weidman. The most intriguing matchups are def when a big champion like silva needs to get his belt back. I agree with ariel and dana, weidman vs silva 2 is fakking intriguing

**Tommy Blingshyne** · 07-09-13, 05:50 PM

5 dimes has silva -140 weidman +100 for the rematch right now

**Sato** · 07-09-13, 05:51 PM

Weidman wins. He wins again! I can see it crystal clear...

**bjpenn85** · 07-09-13, 05:55 PM

I want that sporsbook line, +160. Gift line. 5dimes more accurate with +100

**Sacrelicious** · 07-09-13, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by MD

After rewatching that Silva/Weidman fight a few times, I suggest you all do the same. I didn't notice it much the first time, but Weidman actually beat the shit out of Silva on the feet, in both rounds. Silva barely landed anything significant, and Weidman was bombing Silva on the chin on multiple occasions. The fight wasn't close and neither was the standup. One judge gave Silva round one by the way, LOL.

I fully agree, not only that but he was able to use footwork and head movement to evade some lightning fast strikes from silva. He was even able to successfully block silva' high kicks, almost the only thing that connected were leg kicks and a jab or two. I have watched that fight about a dozen times to try and figure out exactally whaat was going on, weidman's movement was exceptional.

**bjpenn85** · 07-09-13, 06:09 PM

Yep. Chris weidmans footwork is superb. He also managed to hold almost the same distance between him and silva when standing. It allowed him to be able to capitalize when silva eventually would clown himself to sleep.

**Crassus** · 07-09-13, 06:40 PM

Weidman's jab was also exceptional.

**rocky16** · 07-09-13, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by MD

We're on the same side almost all the time, which I like. Was surprised to see you on Gracie though.

Pal, think I mentioned in another thread here that I changed my mind on that fight and thought it might bite me in my ass. Had Kennedy the whole way via better standup, wrestling, and thought he wouldn't get tapped so figured he'd win UD. Think said it here, could've been coked up though.

Anyway for dumb focking reason I started feeling that Gracie could use his reach and throw out jabs keeping Kennedy from closing the distance and then thinking Gracie would outgrapple him. I focked up broski. Good thing I put another 1.5 ubits on Weidman the night before the fight after drinking half gallon of vodka. Wish I was more focked up and added another zero.

**rocky16** · 07-09-13, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by MD

After rewatching that Silva/Weidman fight a few times, I suggest you all do the same. I didn't notice it much the first time, but Weidman actually beat the shit out of Silva on the feet, in both rounds. Silva barely landed anything significant, and Weidman was bombing Silva on the chin on multiple occasions. The fight wasn't close and neither was the standup. One judge gave Silva round one by the way, LOL.

Bro, after hearing the Silva fanboys say "Silva let him win, and Silva would murder Weidman with one punch if he tried" I went back and watched the fight 5 times while sober (started sweating like Pat Ewing).

Seems to me Weidman easily took Silva down and started pushing his melon into canvas repeatedly. Then when it stood up cracked Silva with left hook against cage and landed a big straight right. Not sure what the Silva fanboys or that one crooked judge saw but Weidman won the entire fight right up until he put Silva to sleep.

**Sacrelicious** · 07-09-13, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by rocky16

Bro, after hearing the Silva fanboys say "Silva let him win, and Silva would murder Weidman with one punch if he tried" I went back and watched the fight 5 times while sober (started sweating like Pat Ewing).

Seems to me Weidman easily took Silva down and started pushing his melon into canvas repeatedly. Then when it stood up cracked Silva with left hook against cage and landed a big straight right. Not sure what the Silva fanboys or that one crooked judge saw but Weidman won the entire fight right up until he put Silva to sleep.

Yeah weidman was having his way with him the whole time, as I stated, I have also watched this fight many times. I was blown away most by weidmans footwork and head movement, the guy is the real deal. "He gave the fight to him" is the only way people who have been sucking silvas wang and never heard of weidman can muster.

**Grabaka** · 07-09-13, 09:30 PM

Yeah, after i saw the fight a few times a few things looked much better for Weidman than what i could gauge live (my stream started jumping for the final fight grrr). But i feel like again, just like Silva does this every time (clown and shit) he also does every time the same like he takes his time, clowns you and then deliver the killer shots. All im trying to say is that the way the fight went was not 100% indicative of who has whom number or like to see Weidman as a lock like my good pal Rocka here is making you believe. That fight was very chotic and could have ended on way different ways if that KO wouldnt have come right there.

What Chris did was a monumental task and it kinda took its tall. I dont mean his skills but this thing that everyone enters the octagon already defeated. Weidmans mind and gameplan was what made him win. IMO he could have tired because all the pressure that comes with fighting "the freaking unbeatable bruce lee of MMA" as Chris said himself.
So i do feel Chris will do much better the second time around. The pressure wont be as bad.

I dont see this argument that Silva did way too much clowning....he did enough to make Chris pissed like he probably wanted and he made him swing like he wanted. Chris admited Silva really got in his head and thats why he started swinging.

The more i think about it the more i like Weidman but still dont get too carried away with how this one unfolded.

I do like Weidman's line right now....but is the fight booked? I withdrawed 50 units from my accounts and dont feel like attaching money if the fight isnt booked. It could be on new year eve show or superbowl weekend.....fucken long time.

**Thor4140** · 07-09-13, 09:33 PM

OH god all this hype on Rory and the fight is still three weeks away uugh. Thank god for some reason my book posted the lines early so i don't have to end up taking Rory at -500. Since my wager is in, Ellenberger has one shot and it is what Vaug said and that is if Rory comes in injured which is a possibility. Keep hyping Rory guys. Maybe he can lose a terrible split decision so we all lose.

**Grabaka** · 07-09-13, 09:33 PM

Weidman's taunting

**Thor4140** · 07-09-13, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Weidman's taunting

Weidmans one takedown was a thing of beauty. I think he landed more ground and pound that Chael did in six rounds with that one takedown.

**raag** · 07-10-13, 01:10 AM

Punch at the end of this GIF is sick

**Vaughany** · 07-10-13, 02:50 AM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Yeah, after i saw the fight a few times a few things looked much better for Weidman than what i could gauge live (my stream started jumping for the final fight grrr). But i feel like again, just like Silva does this every time (clown and shit) he also does every time the same like he takes his time, clowns you and then deliver the killer shots. All im trying to say is that the way the fight went was not 100% indicative of who has whom number or like to see Weidman as a lock like my good pal Rocka here is making you believe. That fight was very chotic and could have ended on way different ways if that KO wouldnt have come right there.

What Chris did was a monumental task and it kinda took its tall. I dont mean his skills but this thing that everyone enters the octagon already defeated. Weidmans mind and gameplan was what made him win. IMO he could have tired because all the pressure that comes with fighting "the freaking unbeatable bruce lee of MMA" as Chris said himself.
So i do feel Chris will do much better the second time around. The pressure wont be as bad.

I dont see this argument that Silva did way too much clowning....he did enough to make Chris pissed like he probably wanted and he made him swing like he wanted. Chris admited Silva really got in his head and thats why he started swinging.

The more i think about it the more i like Weidman but still dont get too carried away with how this one unfolded.

I do like Weidman's line right now....but is the fight booked? I withdrawed 50 units from my accounts and dont feel like attaching money if the fight isnt booked. It could be on new year eve show or superbowl weekend.....fucken long time.

If it does happen it wont be until February next year

**Vaughany** · 07-10-13, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by Thor4140

OH god all this hype on Rory and the fight is still three weeks away uugh. Thank god for some reason my book posted the lines early so i don't have to end up taking Rory at -500. Since my wager is in, Ellenberger has one shot and it is what Vaug said and that is if Rory comes in injured which is a possibility. Keep hyping Rory guys. Maybe he can lose a terrible split decision so we all lose.

I've seen a lot more hype on Ellenberger on other forums. Granted we are the elite of the elite on here so is all that matters

Line has been out for ages, if Rory was that hyped he'd be at -300 to -400 range already but has actually only gone from -160 to -225 range since opening. Will probably stay like that until fight week

**GunShard** · 07-10-13, 03:01 AM

Originally posted by MD

Also, I took Cain -195. I don't see that ever being better.

Same here. Adding this to some parlays.

**Thor4140** · 07-10-13, 08:29 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I've seen a lot more hype on Ellenberger on other forums. Granted we are the elite of the elite on here so is all that matters

Line has been out for ages, if Rory was that hyped he'd be at -300 to -400 range already but has actually only gone from -160 to -225 range since opening. Will probably stay like that until fight week

My book only puts out lines a few days before the fight. First time i ever saw them put lines out this early. I had my fill of overseas books to last ten lifetimes. I never got robbed but the shady shit they pull turns a guy off. Not sure if u remember Bowman's book. Great dog book until u win. I went from getting limits on me to having my own personal guy who sounded like he was in his own office taking my plays. He knew my style and shaded my lines terribly. Bodog another good dog book shaded my lines about the first month i started with them. Use to piss me off seeing guys say what their line was for a game( from the same Bodog)and mine was a point lower. Then i had a friend open a small account and use to compare lines with him and his were always better than mine for the game i wanted. Enough of them. This was right when they were having problems paying so that was a whole other circus.

**mmaed** · 07-10-13, 02:03 PM

I'm down to 5dimes and bookmaker. I can't help but wonder what the timeline is for them. I'm an American so they could go under for me at any time.

**Das Jax** · 07-10-13, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I think tht was a combination of Rory still being very raw (at that time) and Condit being far more experienced and ridiculously good off his back. We should bear in mind that that fight was 3 years ago, Rory was only 20, was his second fight in UFC against an experienced fighter in Condit who was just reaching his prime and had already fought over 25 times in his career. He also wasnt training at Tristar full time at that point. It was a huge step up for Rory, going from a gimme fight against Guymon to having to fight Condit in only his second fight in UFC and had the added pressure of it being in British Columbia where Rory Mac is originally from. I believe Rory's sentiments to be true when he said that he was too hyped up for that fight and the pressure got too him and that is partly why he gassed out in third round - obviously the fact that he was fighting a killer with some of the best cardio in MMA played a big part, but still, the overall point remains that the Rory that folded in that fight isnt indicative of the Rory today IMO. The fact that he destroyed Mike Pyle after taking him down shows that Rory's top game is legit - Pyle is no joke off his back as he showed against Rick Story who is one of the strongest guys in the division.

IMO if Ellenberger gets put on his back then he will be in trouble and will find it hard to get back to his feet. I imagine that the Zahabi gameplan will be to do just that as Jake is going to offer zero threat off his back. I'll actually be looking to take Rory SOTN prop as I think he could rear-naked choke Jake

Belated response, but thanks for taking the time to break that down for me. I hadn't yet seen Rory's recent fights when I posted that and, now that I have, I completely agree with your analysis. Rory deserves to be the favorite in this fight for sure (although I do still fear a 1st round Ellenberger knockout). Hopefully we end up getting good odds on fight ends ITD.

**Noleafclover** · 07-10-13, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by MD

http://www.professionalgambler.com/debunking.html

This one is the most notable I've come across, although even I can see some of the issues with it.

Saw you stumbled across that, I found it interesting as well. I read Fixed Odds Sports Betting since, and it ran monte carlo simulations (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method) on level staking, fixed level staking, kelly, and even martingale and another variant of it.

The results on Kelly were that a large portion of the trials ended up with a small loss, while a very few experienced exponential gains. As you might expect based on its designed intent, its average gain was the highest. Also as expected for a percent-based system, few trials went bankrupt.

This would explain professionalgambler.com's assertion that the deck of cards experiment will result in a loss, presumably they tried the experiment several times and got the most likely result with kelly by the numbers - a small loss.

It's a shame the book didn't run a simulation on 1/4 kelly, cause it seems intuitively like that may smooth out results while still producing higher average results than some of the level staking variants.

Everyone on here seems to be disciples of Kelly and I still feel very ignorant, but what strikes me intuitively based off the math in that book is that if you're able to judge your edge adequately and have a substantial one, Kelly is the way to go. Otherwise, you may want to try a level staking variant.

Fixed Odds Sports Betting was clear on one thing: fixed returns staking, a level staking variant in which all bets are "to win x" (so +odds bets get smaller risk) smoothed out variance, reduced risk of bankruptcy, and still maintained similar profit performance to its cousin level staking.

And, trivially, martingale variants failed.

**Hannibal** · 07-10-13, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

Fixed Odds Sports Betting was clear on one thing: fixed returns staking, a level staking variant in which all bets are "to win x" (so +odds bets get smaller risk) smoothed out variance, reduced risk of bankruptcy, and still maintained similar profit performance to its cousin level staking.

And, trivially, martingale variants failed.

Very interesting to hear you say that. Think there is definitely some truth. I've been experimenting with my useless(because im not a pro) sbr points. I only wager mma, and either bet the limit or not at all. The limit on the sbr sportsbook is "to win 250pts". I would say that i have been much more consistent with this system than I have with my real bankroll, where I follow a kelly variation.

I have seriously been considering changing my real bets to a fixed returns staking since I can consistently win SBR points that way, even with significantly worse lines.

**Beelzebubzy** · 07-11-13, 07:29 PM

Cyborg Penis -750

**mirinquads** · 07-12-13, 04:26 PM

Would like to discuss the Burger fight, so i will just copy/paste

Anyone else draw parallels from this Rory v Jake fight to the Rockhold/belfort fight?

One is clearly the technically superior fighter, better cardio and so forth, other has the power advantage and knows how to put hands on you. I bet Belfort Big, and in Rounds 1-2 in the other fight. The difference here is you're getting Ellenberger at even higher plus money, against a bit more unproven guy in Rory. On paper he certainly looks like a beast, and the kicking game he was pummeling BJ with looked much improved. If he can get The Burgers respect with those early, that might set the tone for the fight. However pummeling and old BJ who should be 2 weightclasses below you is hardly impressive.

I suppose Rory should roll here, but Im not sure i can back him at that price. Might do some sort of hedge thing.

Rorys takedown D has been pretty excellent so far, but then again, he has never faced a solid wrestler like Burger. I could certainly see Burger take him down and pound on his head to a stoppage ala Condit, or just steal rounds that way.

Technique wise standup is all Rory though

MD · 07-12-13, 05:19 PM

I am more worried about Ellenberger getting take downs and stealing two rounds than I am about anything else.

Jake Ellenberger is seriously one of the worst strikers in the top ten of any division, but his power is scary and he can definitely KO MacDonald. Look at the sequence he dropped Kampmann with, the technique will make you cringe. His strategy is to go face-first, then just alternate hooks until the other guy drops. He's much worse than Hendricks.

**mirinquads** · 07-12-13, 07:58 PM

Yep, the physicality makes it work though, even against high level guys. Shitload of juice to pay against wrestling and chin questionmarks like this though.

MD · 07-12-13, 09:13 PM

Watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1JYHNX8pdo

I'd embed it but the thumbnail sort of spoils it.