MD's House of Winnerz

[bjpenn85]

It was probably my best night so far. Good to hear you cashed as well. Next event its a bit tricky, cant seem to find any soft spots yet.

[MD]

Well done MD. I may think you are an annoying know it all sometimes, but the proof is in the picks. I value your insight in the recreational betting I do. As soon as Parke line dropped I liked the bet. But I plugged it in when I saw your thread.

I am an annoying know-it-all sometimes, so I don't blame you for feeling that way. For what it's worth, even though I think you were really obnoxious with the Silva talk before this card, the forum's a better place with you on it and I'd be sad to see you leave.

It was probably my best night so far. Good to hear you cashed as well. Next event its a bit tricky, cant seem to find any soft spots yet.

I haven't started looking at the fights yet but I'll let you know if I see anything I like. Right now I only have a couple of bets I'm sure on, hoping to expand that when I watch some footage.

[MD]

So I'm watching footage on Ellenberger and MacDonald, and in the Sanchez fight, Ellenberger counters Diego whilst moving backwards, and Florian compares his technique to Anderson Silva's.

Jesus H. Christ, do people really think Ellenberger is a good striker?

[Beelzebubzy]

So I'm watching footage on Ellenberger and MacDonald, and in the Sanchez fight, Ellenberger counters Diego whilst moving backwards, and Florian compares his technique to Anderson Silva's.

Jesus H. Christ, do people really think Ellenberger is a good striker?

Haha no you fluffer
he haz powerZ and gets over rated. Technically poor plus he has to follow a similar to the heiron fight here IMO
however rory will pick him apart. Has ellenbergers ever been on his back besides the Diego and condit fight?

[mmaed]

So I'm watching footage on Ellenberger and MacDonald, and in the Sanchez fight, Ellenberger counters Diego whilst moving backwards, and Florian compares his technique to Anderson Silva's.

Jesus H. Christ, do people really think Ellenberger is a good striker?

I made a post earlier about this. First off, I don't think he is as good as Anderson Silva. I know he isn't even in the same ballpark. I'm not an expert on striking either but I can post a few things that demonstrate Ellenberger is a competent striker. Ellenberger has faced 10 opponents in the ufc. He's knocked out five of them. So that's a fifty percent knock out rate. The other 5 he didn't knock out are Carlos Condit, Carlos Eduardo Rocha, Diego Sanchez, Martin Kampmann, and Jay Hieron. I didn't see the Jay Hieron fight so I'll comment on the rest. He tried the takedown game with Rocha but got swept a couple times and became very hesitant to engage. He stunned Diego Sanchez and hurt him pretty badly. He stunned Martin Kampmann with punched IIRC. He also dropped Carlos Condit. So out of 10 ufc fights he has knocked, dropped or seriously stunned eight of his opponents. Again, I didn't see the Hieron fight so I don't know what happened there. I'm not saying he is Badr Hari or Anderson Silva but he gets the job done.

[MD]

Haha no you fluffer
he haz powerZ and gets over rated. Technically poor plus he has to follow a similar to the heiron fight here IMO
however rory will pick him apart. Has ellenbergers ever been on his back besides the Diego and condit fight?

Pretty much exactly. He gets by on his athleticism and explosiveness almost as much as Hendricks does. It really baffles me sometimes how poor a striker he is, but yet doesn't seem to be in any rush to improve.

I've never seen him on his back other than in those fights. I will say that after rewatching the Sanchez fight, his takedowns don't appear as powerful as I remembered them being.

[Beelzebubzy]

Rory straight up hedged with jake KOTN
howecer this should be a repeat of rory penn. survive round 1 and coast,

[Vaughany]

Pretty much exactly. He gets by on his athleticism and explosiveness almost as much as Hendricks does. It really baffles me sometimes how poor a striker he is, but yet doesn't seem to be in any rush to improve.

I've never seen him on his back other than in those fights. I will say that after rewatching the Sanchez fight, his takedowns don't appear as powerful as I remembered them being.

His wrestling is over-rated as well, as I understand from reading on forums like sherdog many think he comes from wrestling background and was a NCCA Div II Champion or something. He was actually just a spring-board diver at High School and didnt start wrestling until he was 21 and had a 16-5 record at Nebraska-Kearney (his brother Joe was actually the one who wrestled more and won a State title I believe). Again, like with his striking, he gets by on athleticism and pure power, which is obviously still very effective.

[Das Jax]

His wrestling is over-rated as well, as I understand from reading on forums like sherdog many think he comes from wrestling background and was a NCCA Div II Champion or something. He was actually just a spring-board diver at High School and didnt start wrestling until he was 21 and had a 16-5 record at Nebraska-Kearney (his brother Joe was actually the one who wrestled more and won a State title I believe). Again, like with his striking, he gets by on athleticism and pure power, which is obviously still very effective.

That's good to know because the ground game could definitely come into play. What do you guys think of Rory's ground game? I was watching his ground work during the Condit fight and was not at all impressed. He got Condit down a couple times to be sure... but when he got him there it was almost like he didn't know what to do.

[Vaughany]

That's good to know because the ground game could definitely come into play. What do you guys think of Rory's ground game? I was watching his ground work during the Condit fight and was not at all impressed. He got Condit down a couple times to be sure... but when he got him there it was almost like he didn't know what to do.

I think tht was a combination of Rory still being very raw (at that time) and Condit being far more experienced and ridiculously good off his back. We should bear in mind that that fight was 3 years ago, Rory was only 20, was his second fight in UFC against an experienced fighter in Condit who was just reaching his prime and had already fought over 25 times in his career. He also wasnt training at Tristar full time at that point. It was a huge step up for Rory, going from a gimme fight against Guymon to having to fight Condit in only his second fight in UFC and had the added pressure of it being in British Columbia where Rory Mac is originally from. I believe Rory's sentiments to be true when he said that he was too hyped up for that fight and the pressure got too him and that is partly why he gassed out in third round - obviously the fact that he was fighting a killer with some of the best cardio in MMA played a big part, but still, the overall point remains that the Rory that folded in that fight isnt indicative of the Rory today IMO. The fact that he destroyed Mike Pyle after taking him down shows that Rory's top game is legit - Pyle is no joke off his back as he showed against Rick Story who is one of the strongest guys in the division.

IMO if Ellenberger gets put on his back then he will be in trouble and will find it hard to get back to his feet. I imagine that the Zahabi gameplan will be to do just that as Jake is going to offer zero threat off his back. I'll actually be looking to take Rory SOTN prop as I think he could rear-naked choke Jake

[Vaughany]

Should add that my biggest concern if Rory fighting with an injury.. He appears to be injury prone and he's pulled out of so many fights now that you have to worry that he'll get to the point where he just takes the fight even with the injury just because he wants to fight so bad. Also Jake has pisssed him off slightly

[Vaughany]

BTW, how many times did Rogan say "blah blah... is the best on PLANET-EARTH"!!! on Saturday night!???

"Hoger Gracie's grappling is the best on PLANET-EARTH people"!

"Anderson's striking is the best on PLANET-EARTH people"!

"Barboza's leg kicks are best on PLANET-EARTH people"!

"Frankie's will to win is the best on PLANET-EARTH people"!

"Tim Kennedy's has the biggest tree-chunks for legs on PLANET-EARTH people!"

Like holy fuuck Rogan, I know a lot of UFC viewers are dumb red-necks but I think we can ascertain that when you say "on the planet" it goes without saying that you mean our planet and not Jupiter or penetrating Mars!

[Sato]

BTW, how many times did Rogan say "blah blah... is the best on PLANET-EARTH"!!! on Saturday night!???

"Hoger Gracie's grappling is the best on PLANET-EARTH people"!

"Anderson's striking is the best on PLANET-EARTH people"!

"Barboza's leg kicks are best on PLANET-EARTH people"!

"Frankie's will to win is the best on PLANET-EARTH people"!

"Tim Kennedy's has the biggest tree-chunks for legs on PLANET-EARTH people!"

Like holy fuuck Rogan, I know a lot of UFC viewers are dumb red-necks but I think we can ascertain that when you say "on the planet" it goes without saying that you mean our planet and not Jupiter or penetrating Mars!

Hes a lunatic thats why. "Greatest of all time", "best ever". Its like a goddamn disease. It comes off as these are the only terms the average brain dead seems to notice. "Woaaa HE DE BEST! DID U HER DIS!?"

It ok to tone it down Rogan, unlike your weed consumption.

Oh and about earth...the guy talks for 6 hours straight about the universe and our existence without getting too fuckin' far with his drugged up best pals. I think he double checks himself after every sentence to make sure hes stays on earth...verbally and spiritually. Toolbox.

[Vaughany]

Hes a lunatic thats why. "Greatest of all time", "best ever". Its like a goddamn disease. It comes off as these are the only terms the average brain dead seems to notice. "Woaaa HE DE BEST! DID U HER DIS!?"

It ok to tone it down Rogan, unlike your weed consumption.

Oh and about earth...the guy talks for 6 hours straight about the universe and our existence without getting too fuckin' far with his drugged up best pals. I think he double checks himself after every sentence to make sure hes stays on earth...verbally and spiritually. Toolbox.

ha did you see the Q and A I posted in my thread?! Rogan was in fine-form, completely destroyed some fan-boiis who were wanting to lick his ass! Also started going off at tangents about aliens and stuff (although to be fair he was getting asked questions about it by weird people in the crowd)!

[goodfellas433]

Rory straight up hedged with jake KOTN
howecer this should be a repeat of rory penn. survive round 1 and coast,

nice. Now I just need to remember to get on that KOTN prop as soon as it comes out....that's usually not until the actual fight day on 5d huh?

[Beelzebubzy]

Day of or day before

[Vaughany]

Guymon's prediction... i just submitted my sherdog pros pics and here's what I wrote:

I've had the luxury of fighting Roy McDonald and having trained hard with Jake in mma.


Both are Strong with good wrestling and Striking. I believe Rory has a better submission game then Jake but that Jake has a stronger striking game with more power than Rory.


Also Jake has a much better chin. I dropped Rory with the straight right where is as with Jake I have hit him with the kitchen sink and shovel in the face and he did not bat an eyelash.


So I see Rory getting uncomfortable with Jake on the feet and going for the takedown. Jake will have no problem shutting down the takedowns. Ellenburger will end up getting the KO in the 2nd round


So you heard it first here! And not fight I actually out struck Rory on the feet too.

[Beelzebubzy]

One could argue that rory has improved since his first ufc ohhh where could have had octagon jitters
also argument could be made that he out struck Carlos condit

[goodfellas433]

Guymon's prediction... i just submitted my sherdog pros pics and here's what I wrote:

I've had the luxury of fighting Roy McDonald and having trained hard with Jake in mma.


Both are Strong with good wrestling and Striking. I believe Rory has a better submission game then Jake but that Jake has a stronger striking game with more power than Rory.


Also Jake has a much better chin. I dropped Rory with the straight right where is as with Jake I have hit him with the kitchen sink and shovel in the face and he did not bat an eyelash.


So I see Rory getting uncomfortable with Jake on the feet and going for the takedown. Jake will have no problem shutting down the takedowns. Ellenburger will end up getting the KO in the 2nd round


So you heard it first here! And not fight I actually out struck Rory on the feet too.

hmmmm. I think if Jake doesn't get the KO in the first, he loses.

[rocky16]

Guymon's prediction... i just submitted my sherdog pros pics and here's what I wrote:

I've had the luxury of fighting Roy McDonald and having trained hard with Jake in mma.


Both are Strong with good wrestling and Striking. I believe Rory has a better submission game then Jake but that Jake has a stronger striking game with more power than Rory.


Also Jake has a much better chin. I dropped Rory with the straight right where is as with Jake I have hit him with the kitchen sink and shovel in the face and he did not bat an eyelash.


So I see Rory getting uncomfortable with Jake on the feet and going for the takedown. Jake will have no problem shutting down the takedowns. Ellenburger will end up getting the KO in the 2nd round


So you heard it first here! And not fight I actually out struck Rory on the feet too.

No bias.

[bjpenn85]

Training and fightnight is two different things. You dont go full throttle w sparring with training partners. But, there is some truth to what guymon says. Ellenberger has a better chin. Rorys chin is actually questionable. If memory serves me correct he quite often gets tagged. -200 on rory NO THANKS!!! Ellenberger also has very good tdd + he have also learned to pace himself. I def think this a dog or pass situation. Im actually leaning ellenberger on this one. Rory is def the more technical guy but i do think that the time has comed to ask, who has rory actually fought? He hasnt fought anyone good on the feet and won. Nate diaz, no, he took him down. A washed up BJ penn? Mike pyle? nope, took him down. Che mills? Nope, took him down. Carlos condit..agreed, that fight he was daaaamn good. With other words, rory hasnt fought anyone of decent quality on the feet to justify -200. I rather gamble on Ellenberger KO of the night @ +500 or something

[gabe]

What if it's the same Ellenberger who fought Kampmann? After that fight, I haven't laid a dime on Jake.

[Rubber Guard]

He is an idiot for thinking that he can gauge Rory's current skillset over what he remembers over 3 years ago when he was a 20 year old kid making his UFC debut.

[rocky16]

He is an idiot for thinking that he can gauge Rory's current skillset over what he remembers over 3 years ago when he was a 20 year old kid making his UFC debut.

Very true, almost dumb as the phags who said Silva could beat Weidman.

[bjpenn85]

I agree. Its either Ellenberger round 1/ KO of the night. Or mayybe rory decision if i cant find anything else. But its absurd to put big money on this fight. I have won money on rory everytime since he came to the ufc, hell, i even won when he lost because i bet condit. But am done betting rory now. "this is the ufc, this is normal."

[MD]

Rory will likely finish Ellenberger.

[rocky16]

Rory will likely finish Ellenberger.

He is. Not sure what people see in Ellenberger. I don't get it.

[Vaughany]

yeah more interested in Rory SOTN then Jake KOTN

[rocky16]

yeah more interested in Rory SOTN then Jake KOTN

Could definitely see Rory subbing Ellenberger after he roughs him up and Jake gasses.

[Rubber Guard]

Very true, almost dumb as the phags who said Silva could beat Weidman.

You do the worst Defacto impression here. Odd for a guy who was his biggest fan.

[rocky16]

You do the worst Defacto impression here. Odd for a guy who was his biggest fan.

What impression you talking bout? You still mad your soul mate got trashed in front of millions? Time to move on guy.

[Rubber Guard]

Time for you to quit following me around and attend to your ugly wife and kids.

[rocky16]

Time for you to quit following me around and attend to your ugly wife and kids.

I hate them focks, why would I "attend" to them? You make no focking sense jooboy. Time for you to follow me around and accept my winners. They cash, bro.

[Grabaka]

lol

[MD]

I hate them focks, why would I "attend" to them? You make no focking sense jooboy. Time for you to follow me around and accept my winners. They cash, bro.

We're on the same side almost all the time, which I like. Was surprised to see you on Gracie though.