Cousin Gabe's picks for UFC on FX 5 and other sh!t

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  • NunyaBidness
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-26-09
    • 9345

    #106
    Originally posted by PunisherIND
    this might be a great suggestion. i havent been following the race too closely, but i hear the next debate has to do with foreign policy and therefore its not expected to go well for obama.
    Curious why you say that since Romney has no foreign policy experience and is generally considered weak in that area.
    Comment
    • NunyaBidness
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 07-26-09
      • 9345

      #107
      Originally posted by gabe
      the lines were like -180 for obama to win and -130 for democrat to become president lol i took the -130
      Better price and gives you assassination protection
      Comment
      • gabe
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-12-11
        • 7405

        #108
        Originally posted by PunisherIND
        i had money on manuwa (at -150, wouldnt have played him when it got above -200). and i was thanking my lucky stars that the fight was stopped after rd 2. manuwa was running on fumes. i think he would have been finished in rd 3, even against a cyclops.
        Finished? He was tired, yes, but he was still the aggressor. He was still coming at Kingsbury with BOMBS. He had both rounds in the bag, first round being a 10-8. Worst case scenario, it would have gone to a decision, and he'd get robbed. He wouldn't be gassed enough to be finished by a beat Kingsbury, especially since he was still the main aggressor.

        Manuwa and Nelson were both locks. I was afraid one of them would be too good to be true. I got Manuwa at -180 and I thought that was a STEAL. Had him capped closer to -380.
        Comment
        • gabe
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 09-12-11
          • 7405

          #109
          Originally posted by NunyaBidness
          Better price and gives you assassination protection
          ha..
          Comment
          • NunyaBidness
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 07-26-09
            • 9345

            #110
            Originally posted by gabe
            45-33... holy shit lol that's a lot of max $25 bets
            Some of em were $10 max!
            Comment
            • NunyaBidness
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 07-26-09
              • 9345

              #111
              Originally posted by Vaughany
              lol worst Ive had was a sigmoidoscopy! Think they are less intrusive then a colonoscopy...good luck bud!
              Was fine with it until he told me they were going down the throat at the same time and meeting in the middle. Seemed like some horrible HR Geiger painting.
              Comment
              • Vaughany
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 03-07-10
                • 45563

                #112
                Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                Was fine with it until he told me they were going down the throat at the same time and meeting in the middle. Seemed like some horrible HR Geiger painting.
                ha daaaaaaamn son! Gonna be anesthetized I take it!?
                Comment
                • gabe
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-12-11
                  • 7405

                  #113
                  Originally posted by gabe
                  UFC ON FX 5

                  #1) Jacob Volkmann -185
                  > Shane Roller
                  Feels too easy. I cap Volkmann closer to -500 than I do -200. Shouldn't have trouble taking Roller down, and controlling him for an easy 30-27 UD. I have a feeling he might submit a gassed Roller in the 3rd. We'll see. I'm taking him straight, not by decision.

                  #2) Jeremy Stephens -220 > Yves Edwards
                  There is value in Stephens by KO. He got whooped by Cerrone, this is his bounce back fight. Should make it look easy. Worst case scenario, he wins a hard fought decision.

                  #3) Josh Neer -280 > Justin Edwards
                  I think Justin might be related to Yves. Not sure. Anyway, both are going to lose. Neer is the better fighter, and has many paths to victory. He will probably take one, since he can't take two. I can't predict how he'll win, but he'll win.

                  too st0ned off the indica dominant kush my main russki defacto hooked me up with, i'll be back with the rest later...
                  #4) Marcus Levesseur -105 > Carlo Prater
                  Might want to hold back and see if he falls to +110 or better... Really good chance this becomes a dryhump clinic. If he avoids sub attempts from Prater's guard, he should be fine.

                  #5) Bart Palaszewski +160 > Diego Nunes
                  Diego is a technical striker, and Bart likes to brawl. He will get on the inside, and do damage to Nunes.

                  #6) Aaron Simpson +140 > Mike Pierce
                  I was hoping money would come in on Pierce rather than Simpson, but oh well. I believe Simpson is the more talented, versatile fighter. He is also a lot smarter than Pierce. He should be able to get a win here.

                  Rest, soon...
                  Comment
                  • PunisherIND
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-24-11
                    • 4983

                    #114
                    Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                    Better price and gives you assassination protection
                    lmao. its funny because its true.
                    Comment
                    • PunisherIND
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-24-11
                      • 4983

                      #115
                      Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                      Curious why you say that since Romney has no foreign policy experience and is generally considered weak in that area.
                      i think in this case it actually helps romney that he doesnt have any experience b/c he can simply make promises. he wont have to defend his actions like obama will have to.

                      but again, i havent been following the race too closely, so i could be completely off base.
                      Comment
                      • PunisherIND
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-24-11
                        • 4983

                        #116
                        Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                        Curious why you say that since Romney has no foreign policy experience and is generally considered weak in that area.
                        actually, i could be completely wrong. i thought the next debate was exclusively foreign policy, but apparently its foreign and domestic policy. and it takes place in liberal NY. so on second thought, obama might actually do better than romney in the next one.
                        Comment
                        • NunyaBidness
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 07-26-09
                          • 9345

                          #117
                          Also, its a town hall format, which should fit Obama's style better.
                          Comment
                          • PunisherIND
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-24-11
                            • 4983

                            #118
                            Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                            Also, its a town hall format, which should fit Obama's style better.
                            yup. agreed.
                            Comment
                            • gabe
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 09-12-11
                              • 7405

                              #119
                              PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
                              [306] UTAH +14½-120 (B+½)
                              [362] AUBURN -8½-130 (B+1)
                              [370] STANFORD -7-160 (B+2)
                              18/76

                              PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
                              [306] UTAH +16-150 (B+2)
                              [362] AUBURN -7-160 (B+2)
                              [370] STANFORD -7-160 (B+2)
                              15/51

                              PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
                              [302] STL RAMS +2½-110
                              [418] NY GIANTS -370
                              [419] TEN TITANS +195
                              [434] NO SAINTS -200
                              [4455] K. NISHIKORI +3½-135
                              (K. NISHIKORI vrs T. BERDYCH)
                              [4054] J. TSONGA -260
                              (M. YOUZHNY vrs J. TSONGA)
                              15/372

                              STRAIGHT BET
                              [302] STL RAMS +3½-170 (B+1)
                              510/300
                              Comment
                              • gabe
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-12-11
                                • 7405

                                #120
                                Originally posted by gabe
                                Let's start with the other sh!t...

                                PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
                                [4409] J. TIPSAREVIC -150
                                (J. TIPSAREVIC vrs G. SIMON)
                                [4424] J MONACO -155
                                (G. DIMITROV vrs J MONACO)
                                [4044] J. TSONGA -360
                                (N. DAVYDENKO vrs J. TSONGA)
                                400/1000

                                STRAIGHT BET
                                [4424] J MONACO -155
                                (G. DIMITROV vrs J MONACO)
                                155/100
                                both cashed, 'cept 3 teamer was counted as 2 teamer 'cos tsonga had a walkover
                                Comment
                                • gabe
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-12-11
                                  • 7405

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by gabe
                                  PARLAY (5 TEAMS)
                                  [302] STL RAMS +1-110
                                  [4440] M. RAONIC -350
                                  (V. TROICKI vrs M. RAONIC)
                                  [4445] K. NISHIKORI -320
                                  (K. NISHIKORI vrs T. ROBREDO)
                                  [4044] J. TSONGA -400
                                  (N. DAVYDENKO vrs J. TSONGA)
                                  [4709] N. LI -450
                                  (N. LI vrs S. PENG)
                                  32/125

                                  I think Raonic -350 is a lock. Nishikori -320 is as good as a lock, too.
                                  rams left...
                                  Comment
                                  • El Nino
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 05-03-12
                                    • 18426

                                    #122
                                    Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                    where is hog analysis? remember obama is only 1/2 black so its not a given.
                                    This is true. I'm deep in research looking at close up jpegs. I'm leaning on Obama right now.
                                    Comment
                                    • DirtyX
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 06-05-11
                                      • 686

                                      #123
                                      Originally posted by El Nino
                                      Romney has a stiff jab and superior Jits. If the fight stays on the feet, I think he has the advantage. If it goes to the ground, he is dangerous off his back.

                                      Obama is slick everywhere but I expect this fight to go to the judges, where it favors him. He makes this an ugly fight and wins with a few takedowns and stalling out the end of each round in top position.

                                      Obama UD 50-49, 50-49, 50-49

                                      I thought the line would have moved after last night, but on my book it remained unchanged after the debate. I had to throw down on Romney (not a fan of either one) because I cap this fight at evens, maybe a slight edge to Obama.



                                      Ticket#:75487133
                                      Nov 06 08:00 AM
                                      INTERNET / -1 Oct 04 11:03 AM PROP U.S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS - WINNER
                                      [70202] REPUBLICANS +275
                                      $100 / $275
                                      Comment
                                      • PunisherIND
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-24-11
                                        • 4983

                                        #124
                                        Last bit about the election, I promise. So I just read about a study that compared poll movement the week before the first debate with the week after the last debate, from 1960 to 2008. Every time except one, there was no substantial change in the polls. In the one outlier year, the candidate who performed better in the debates actually lost ground in the polls. So the study concluded that the debates have little, if any, impact on the election itself.

                                        In light of this, one has to assume the jump from -520 to -275 was an overreaction. Im going to pull the trigger here. If the line improves I will just add more.
                                        Comment
                                        • gabe
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 09-12-11
                                          • 7405

                                          #125
                                          I don't see how Obama loses

                                          Cant imagine Romney as president, and I've got a pretty great imagination.
                                          Comment
                                          • gabe
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 09-12-11
                                            • 7405

                                            #126
                                            If volkmann wins, I'm buying a volkmann 4 prez shirt
                                            Comment
                                            • NunyaBidness
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 07-26-09
                                              • 9345

                                              #127
                                              Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                              Last bit about the election, I promise. So I just read about a study that compared poll movement the week before the first debate with the week after the last debate, from 1960 to 2008. Every time except one, there was no substantial change in the polls. In the one outlier year, the candidate who performed better in the debates actually lost ground in the polls. So the study concluded that the debates have little, if any, impact on the election itself.

                                              In light of this, one has to assume the jump from -520 to -275 was an overreaction. Im going to pull the trigger here. If the line improves I will just add more.
                                              Now you're thinkin, Abe Lincoln.

                                              Overreaction is one of the best ways to make money in sports betting. As far as elections you can usually follow the bumps up and down before and after conventions, debates etc. It also carries through to other sports, injuries, missed weight, etc; hitting them before they get factored into the price is valuable, but just as valuable is hitting the other side once it gets overreacted too.
                                              Comment
                                              • NunyaBidness
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 07-26-09
                                                • 9345

                                                #128
                                                Originally posted by gabe
                                                If volkmann wins, I'm buying a volkmann 4 prez shirt
                                                Sometimes I think I can't cap Volkmann fights reasonably since I hate him so much.
                                                Comment
                                                • NunyaBidness
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 07-26-09
                                                  • 9345

                                                  #129
                                                  Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                                  Last bit about the election, I promise. So I just read about a study that compared poll movement the week before the first debate with the week after the last debate, from 1960 to 2008. Every time except one, there was no substantial change in the polls. In the one outlier year, the candidate who performed better in the debates actually lost ground in the polls. So the study concluded that the debates have little, if any, impact on the election itself.

                                                  In light of this, one has to assume the jump from -520 to -275 was an overreaction. Im going to pull the trigger here. If the line improves I will just add more.
                                                  If you enjoy being bored to death, read Nate Silver's blog. He was a poker player switched to sabremetrics switched to election forecasting.

                                                  Breaking news and analysis on U.S. politics, including the latest coverage of the White House, Congress, the Supreme Court and more.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • PunisherIND
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-24-11
                                                    • 4983

                                                    #130
                                                    Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                    If you enjoy being bored to death, read Nate Silver's blog. He was a poker player switched to sabremetrics switched to election forecasting.

                                                    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
                                                    lol. good stuff. i'll try to check this out.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BIGDAY
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 02-17-10
                                                      • 48245

                                                      #131
                                                      Gabers!!!!!!!!

                                                      Volkman/Roller is the only fight we disagree on... This could be a first pal. Let's kill it.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • DirtyX
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 06-05-11
                                                        • 686

                                                        #132
                                                        Originally posted by gabe
                                                        They're not, if you're the average person, but they are if you're me. Most people rarely hit them, if ever, whereas I hit them regularly. I would have easily hit a couple 6 team MMA parlays this past weekend, but my current books don't allow MMA parlays. Need to find one that does.
                                                        Originally posted by gabe
                                                        I've hit so many 6-8 teamers that I lost count a long time ago.

                                                        I've posted a lot of them on here.
                                                        Originally posted by gabe
                                                        This isn't just a hobby for me, it's a skill. I wouldn't waste my time (and money) if I wasn't doing so well at it. You guys have a "bankroll" you play with, like a hobby. For me, it's my bread and butter. Until I get something else going, anyway.

                                                        Dude your stats are inflated and exaggerated. Anyone who can even get 55% of their picks correct is doing extremely well. You are claiming to be 20 and 6 or whatever the hell you posted and then 19-6 in Strikeforce.. LOL. Damn cousin, why don't you just quit you fawking job and do this skill full time? Anyways Mr. Great Gabers, I think you are full of shit, and Jesus would put you to shame as far as this skill goes. You are a parlay chaser, and you are only lying to yourself cousin. Do you know your MMA, sure, do I read your opinions, yes indeed, but don't try and claim that you are getting 75% of your picks correct. Because if that is true, then you are a dumbass for not quitting your job and going pro bro.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Crassus
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-08-12
                                                          • 1538

                                                          #133
                                                          Originally posted by DirtyX
                                                          Dude your stats are inflated and exaggerated. Anyone who can even get 55% of their picks correct is doing extremely well. You are claiming to be 20 and 6 or whatever the hell you posted and then 19-6 in Strikeforce.. LOL. Damn cousin, why don't you just quit you fawking job and do this skill full time? Anyways Mr. Great Gabers, I think you are full of shit, and Jesus would put you to shame as far as this skill goes. You are a parlay chaser, and you are only lying to yourself cousin. Do you know your MMA, sure, do I read your opinions, yes indeed, but don't try and claim that you are getting 75% of your picks correct. Because if that is true, then you are a dumbass for not quitting your job and going pro bro.
                                                          55% is only really impressive unless youre betting some sort of spreaded sport. 55% in boxing and you're probably losing big time.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • gabe
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 09-12-11
                                                            • 7405

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by DirtyX
                                                            Dude your stats are inflated and exaggerated. Anyone who can even get 55% of their picks correct is doing extremely well. You are claiming to be 20 and 6 or whatever the hell you posted and then 19-6 in Strikeforce.. LOL. Damn cousin, why don't you just quit you fawking job and do this skill full time? Anyways Mr. Great Gabers, I think you are full of shit, and Jesus would put you to shame as far as this skill goes. You are a parlay chaser, and you are only lying to yourself cousin. Do you know your MMA, sure, do I read your opinions, yes indeed, but don't try and claim that you are getting 75% of your picks correct. Because if that is true, then you are a dumbass for not quitting your job and going pro bro.
                                                            You're right, I didn't go 12-4 this past weekend, even though I posted all the plays online. I guess that didn't happen.

                                                            I don't have a job. I can't quit what I don't have lol

                                                            Dude, I was liking you up til now, and didn't say anything the numerous times you've said retarded shit. Even when others were shitting on you. You are a real idiot. I'm done with your dumb ass.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • gabe
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-12-11
                                                              • 7405

                                                              #135
                                                              Originally posted by gabe
                                                              PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
                                                              [306] UTAH +14½-120 (B+½)
                                                              [362] AUBURN -8½-130 (B+1)
                                                              [370] STANFORD -7-160 (B+2)
                                                              18/76

                                                              PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
                                                              [306] UTAH +16-150 (B+2)
                                                              [362] AUBURN -7-160 (B+2)
                                                              [370] STANFORD -7-160 (B+2)
                                                              15/51

                                                              PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
                                                              [302] STL RAMS +2½-110
                                                              [418] NY GIANTS -370
                                                              [419] TEN TITANS +195
                                                              [434] NO SAINTS -200
                                                              [4455] K. NISHIKORI +3½-135
                                                              (K. NISHIKORI vrs T. BERDYCH)
                                                              [4054] J. TSONGA -260
                                                              (M. YOUZHNY vrs J. TSONGA)
                                                              15/372

                                                              STRAIGHT BET
                                                              [302] STL RAMS +3½-170 (B+1)
                                                              510/300
                                                              hope someone tailed on my rams play...

                                                              PARLAY (5 TEAMS)
                                                              [302] STL RAMS +112
                                                              [418] NY GIANTS -370
                                                              [306] UTAH +14½-110
                                                              [362] AUBURN -8-110
                                                              [370] STANFORD -9-110
                                                              17/301

                                                              got em straight 100 to win 107 and 100 to win 112
                                                              Comment
                                                              • gabe
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 09-12-11
                                                                • 7405

                                                                #136
                                                                $4.00 $138.89
                                                                Pending 10/5/12 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Josh Neer -290* vs Justin Edwards
                                                                Pending 10/5/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1401 Jeremy Stephens -235* vs Yves Edwards
                                                                Pending 10/5/12 6:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Jacob Volkmann -210* vs Shane Roller
                                                                Pending 10/5/12 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1801 Bart Palaszewski +175* vs Diego Nunes
                                                                Pending 10/5/12 4:30pm UFC Fighting 1951 Marcus LeVesseur -125* vs Carlo Prater
                                                                Pending 10/5/12 4:00pm UFC Fighting 1975 Aaron Simpson +155* vs Mike Pierce
                                                                Comment
                                                                • gabe
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 09-12-11
                                                                  • 7405

                                                                  #137
                                                                  $3.25 $5.04

                                                                  Pending 10/5/12 4:00pm UFC Fighting 1975 Aaron Simpson +155* vs Mike Pierce
                                                                  having some fun with 5dimes lol
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • gabe
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 09-12-11
                                                                    • 7405

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by gabe
                                                                    PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
                                                                    [306] UTAH +14½-120 (B+½)
                                                                    [362] AUBURN -8½-130 (B+1)
                                                                    [370] STANFORD -7-160 (B+2)
                                                                    18/76

                                                                    PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
                                                                    [306] UTAH +16-150 (B+2)
                                                                    [362] AUBURN -7-160 (B+2)
                                                                    [370] STANFORD -7-160 (B+2)
                                                                    15/51

                                                                    PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
                                                                    [302] STL RAMS +2½-110
                                                                    [418] NY GIANTS -370
                                                                    [419] TEN TITANS +195
                                                                    [434] NO SAINTS -200
                                                                    [4455] K. NISHIKORI +3½-135
                                                                    (K. NISHIKORI vrs T. BERDYCH)
                                                                    [4054] J. TSONGA -260
                                                                    (M. YOUZHNY vrs J. TSONGA)
                                                                    15/372

                                                                    STRAIGHT BET
                                                                    [302] STL RAMS +3½-170 (B+1)
                                                                    510/300


                                                                    Rams win 17-3, easy $

                                                                    hit em straight too at +107 and +112
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • gabe
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 09-12-11
                                                                      • 7405

                                                                      #139
                                                                      up huge so far this week... lookin forward to the FX card... gonna play around with these too:

                                                                      STRAIGHT BET
                                                                      [4455] K. NISHIKORI +225
                                                                      (K. NISHIKORI vrs T. BERDYCH)
                                                                      220/490

                                                                      STRAIGHT BET
                                                                      [4052] Z. ZHANG +375
                                                                      (F. MAYER vrs Z. ZHANG)
                                                                      200/750
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Vaughany
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 03-07-10
                                                                        • 45563

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Originally posted by gabe
                                                                        $3.25 $5.04
                                                                        Pending 10/5/12 4:00pm UFC Fighting 1975 Aaron Simpson +155* vs Mike Pierce
                                                                        having some fun with 5dimes lol
                                                                        ha #alliseeissquid
                                                                        Comment
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