Snowball's Live Chases & Fades

[2daBank]

man bro cards gonna be a painful one i fear for you...their bats are dead, focus is gone, and zimmerman is pitching very well..on bright side i think loshe will pitch well but just dont see them winning 2day, maybe 2marro against stras, when they come home for muts they should have things fugured out plus muts cant score but this nats series stinks of a sweep (god i hope im wrong but didnt mind cashing nats yesterday)..hopefully they get it done for you brother but they reeling (i know yu know i know this team)...gl

[altieriflyers]

Thanks, let`s do it

[Snowball]

man bro cards gonna be a painful one i fear for you...their bats are dead, focus is gone, and zimmerman is pitching very well..on bright side i think loshe will pitch well but just dont see them winning 2day, maybe 2marro against stras, when they come home for muts they should have things fugured out plus muts cant score but this nats series stinks of a sweep (god i hope im wrong but didnt mind cashing nats yesterday)..hopefully they get it done for you brother but they reeling (i know yu know i know this team)...gl

lol i know.. but i am confident it will be a successful chase, only a matter of when. I am only chasing teams who are truly in need of wins to stay on top or reach a wild card. Highly motivated even if they are in a funk..
These guys are all professionals...and CANNOT afford to lay down.

[altieriflyers]

Tigers chase completed (2)

Summary:
43 chases/fades won on 1st game
22 on 2nd game
6 on 3rd game
1 on 4th game
1 discontinued after 3rd
1 discontinued after 4th

active
(3) Cardinals chase +102
(1) Pirates chase +116
(1) Yankees RL chase +141
(1) Rangers RL chase -105

note on Cardinals: they are still a half game up on the Wild Card. Today and tomorrow in Washington, then coming home to a series hosting the Mets. I intend to chase the Cardinals until they win.

Thanks Snowball, in fact I was on the Rangers RL already, I`m going to bet every Indians and Astros game against them RL for the rest of the season, It should make a profit. Cheers!!

[2daBank]

lol i know.. but i am confident it will be a successful chase, only a matter of when. I am only chasing teams who are truly in need of wins to stay on top or reach a wild card. Highly motivated even if they are in a funk..
These guys are all professionals...and CANNOT afford to lay down.

as many problems as i have with this stl team i dont not think they are laying down (although they did quit on that gm where yadi got plowed) if anything i believe they are pressing...on bright side pit gonna keep losing to brew crew so they still be right in it..zimmerman hasnt been great lately (just checked), think under is where to be on this one...i hope they get you the W sooner than later!

[Riceboi]

snowball have you been successful in NHL at all with these chases? Or will you be attempting these chases for the first time?

[Snowball]

snowball have you been successful in NHL at all with these chases? Or will you be attempting these chases for the first time?

it will be the first time i apply this to other than baseball.
it's just not a fit for football, soccer, or basketball.
but it should be a good fit for hockey.
i will keep the acceptable line range similar.

[nosaij]

snow bro. STL pulled through! I was preparing for a huge 4 game chase. Phew..

[2daBank]

snow bro. STL pulled through! I was preparing for a huge 4 game chase. Phew..

9.5 times out of 10 this cards team doesnt win that gm,,, forget the fact they never win 1 run gms but coming back like that? not their MO what so ever...glad you guys won (even tho i lost) cause i was worried from the start of this one for you guys..

[nosaij]

9.5 times out of 10 this cards team doesnt win that gm,,, forget the fact they never win 1 run gms but coming back like that? not their MO what so ever...glad you guys won (even tho i lost) cause i was worried from the start of this one for you guys..

thanks mate. Close game! GL for tomr

[Snowball]

Yeah that was a crazy game alright.. very fortunate it ended in 3 for this chase,
they are going to have a tough game today, but the chase would have won eventually
because they are hosting the Mets next, and that's what I look for in choosing these.
The Yankees were only -143 on the ML yesterday, but I went with the RL and we lost
bec. they won by 1. Still, there is a lot of value on the RL's because we are only betting
"to win" one unit, then "to win" what was lost previously + the one unit.
So the chases are a lot less expensive this way, although if you've
noticed there are only a limited number of teams who i trust their hitting enough to do RL.
Today I'm starting a couple new ones that have a connection. The A's
have won 8 straight and the Red Sox have lost 5. I was going to fade
the A's, with the Angels coming up next for them, but I liked the Red Sox
chase rather than A's fade because they are going to Seattle after tonight
and there you have some winnable games for Boston, with Felix having pitched last night, and being two scrub teams with nothing to play for, except
individual player stats. So I am starting the Angels RL chase just in case
the Red Sox lose today, I have the A's fade covered. I think the A's are
due to get blown out.

Cardinals chase completed (3)

Summary:
43 chases/fades won on 1st game
22 on 2nd game
7 on 3rd game
1 on 4th game
1 discontinued after 3rd
1 discontinued after 4th

active
(2) Yankees RL chase +145
(2) Rangers RL chase +105
(2) Pirates chase +151
(1) Angels RL chase -105
(1) Red Sox chase +158

[nosaij]

yea i have noticed! GL man.

[Snowball]

yea i have noticed! GL man.

are you on all 5 i have running now ?

[nosaij]

yes

[nosaij]

why? are we changing plays coz you got some late info? im scared about the angels haha

[Snowball]

why? are we changing plays coz you got some late info? im scared about the angels haha

scroll up, i added another comment about why I am on Angels RL and Red Sox today.
Why would you be worried about the Angels at home playing a scrub team like Seattle ?

[nosaij]

its jsut weaver haha. he buried this forum so many times this year. including myself haha.

[Riceboi]

I like most of your chases and fades but i'll be skipping the fade A's chase. The team is really hot and just hate playing against them.

[nosaij]

pit at 1.45. should i chase the RL?

[Snowball]

Rangers RL chase completed (2)

Summary:
43 chases/fades won on 1st game
23 on 2nd game
7 on 3rd game
1 on 4th game
1 discontinued after 3rd
1 discontinued after 4th

active
(3) Yankees RL +165
(3) Pirates -210 (ouch)
(2) Angels RL +150
(2) Red Sox -101

guys like I said a couple weeks ago, I was worried about this strategy being
too dicey late in the season; I came very close to ending it last week.
I also came close to ending it today and counting all these actives as no-plays.
But i'm going to ride out. They will all eventually win.
Recently, the 1st game wins are getting sparser.. the 3rd needed are increasing.
Look at the Pirates chase, the line is -210 at (3), so obviously they rly have to win for us. Fortunately the Yanks and Angels RL chases are not a heavy drain on the BR. if one only played this thread and no other spot bets, one would easily have enough BR to follow the active chases above to the distance and win.

[Snowball]

pit at 1.45. should i chase the RL?

that is up to you and your BR preferences. I am staying with the ML
because that is the chase. It was not an expensive chase, Pit was a dog
in the previous wagers.
If you rly want to chase the RL, then consider that a new chase starting at (1).

[Snowball]

ok I have an important announcement to make concerning the nature of
these chase/fades.. let's review the track record:
Summary:
43 chases/fades won on 1st game
23 on 2nd game
7 on 3rd game
1 on 4th game
1 discontinued after 3rd
1 discontinued after 4th

out of 76 chase or fades, 74 were won.
of the 74 won, 66 were won by the 2nd game.
that represents 89.1% of won chases.

What I'm going to to after we finish these and into the NHL is
refocus the system to only a 2-game chase/fade. Never going
into a 3rd, unless that 3rd game is restarted as a new chase (1 unit).
The reason is compounded risk, obviously..a 2nd game only requires
3 units, or (what was lost in one game) plus "to win" 1 unit.
But the 3rd game exposure is too much, it's potentially a 7-unit risk..
not worth it, the trick is to cap and score high in 2-game chases from
now on. I'm going to ride out these final ones and end the thread,
but next year MLB and this year NHL will be strict 2-game limit chase or fades..

[altieriflyers]

you are the man.

BOL

[nosaij]

ok I have an important announcement to make concerning the nature of
these chase/fades.. let's review the track record:
Summary:
43 chases/fades won on 1st game
23 on 2nd game
7 on 3rd game
1 on 4th game
1 discontinued after 3rd
1 discontinued after 4th

out of 76 chase or fades, 74 were won.
of the 74 won, 66 were won by the 2nd game.
that represents 89.1% of won chases.

What I'm going to to after we finish these and into the NHL is
refocus the system to only a 2-game chase/fade. Never going
into a 3rd, unless that 3rd game is restarted as a new chase (1 unit).
The reason is compounded risk, obviously..a 2nd game only requires
3 units, or (what was lost in one game) plus "to win" 1 unit.
But the 3rd game exposure is too much, it's potentially a 7-unit risk..
not worth it, the trick is to cap and score high in 2-game chases from
now on. I'm going to ride out these final ones and end the thread,
but next year MLB and this year NHL will be strict 2-game limit chase or fades..

ohh i like the idea! thanks man

[Snowball]

guys I started the NHL thread just to earmark it
ahead of time...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-betting/1879238-snowballs-2-game-limit-chase-fade.html#post15879890

I hope we finish at least 2 of the chases remaining here today.
this action over the last 4-5 days is telling me it's time to
tie up the horse and hit the saloon.

active
(3) Yankees RL +165
(3) Pirates -210 (ouch)
(2) Angels RL +150
(2) Red Sox -101

[EVPlus]

I've been watching this thread from the side lines and have the following comments.

Automatically chasing a team from one day to the other does not factor in day-to-day adjustments such as line movements, injuries, etc. This "system" robotically dictates that you take a certain team. Looks like you had good results earlier in the season; and now you're attributing the dismal results to the regular season winding down. That's one possible explanation. Another possible explanation is that you're luck has simply run out.

I know snowball is going to disagree with me. However, for anyone out there with an objective view, if you decide to follow this "system" to the nhl season - where the parity is greater IMO - brace yourselves to the possibility that you're being led to the slaughter.

[nosaij]

hey snow. which teams should i chase now? pit, redsox or yankees. im running out of br LOL

[2daBank]

I've been watching this thread from the side lines and have the following comments.

Automatically chasing a team from one day to the other does not factor in day-to-day adjustments such as line movements, injuries, etc. This "system" robotically dictates that you take a certain team. Looks like you had good results earlier in the season; and now you're attributing the dismal results to the regular season winding down. That's one possible explanation. Another possible explanation is that you're luck has simply run out.

I know snowball is going to disagree with me. However, for anyone out there with an objective view, if you decide to follow this "system" to the nhl season - where the parity is greater IMO - brace yourselves to the possibility that you're being led to the slaughter.

all i do in hockey is bet blues when they hot and fade/play under when not....ill give it a little shot as snow good peeps, if it goes bad no biggie wont be risking a lot an dcan always count on making a little when i have good feel for blues....

[Snowball]

Going to ride out all these final chases and be done with the season.
nosaij, if you can't chase all 3, you wouldn't want me to choose one of below as most likely, that's your call bro. They will all close out soon, don't ya think ?
why choose, just divide them. play all 3 with your Pirates changed to RL
and they can be split in thirds.

Angels RL chase completed (2)

Summary:
43 chases/fades won on 1st game
24 on 2nd game
7 on 3rd game
1 on 4th game
1 discontinued after 3rd
1 discontinued after 4th

active
(4) Yankees RL is ML. They are underdogs and I don't see a reverse RL offered yet, it would be at least +170, the ML is +120.. switch chase to ML for this game +120.
(4) Pirates -205 here we go again. ML @ -205 or RL @ +100 is your choice.
Can't they beat the Astros ? Can't they ?????
(3) Red Sox -128 Lester at Seattle (Beavan) with Sox on 7gm skid.

[Snowball]

should be ok to parlay the Pirates ML with each Boston and Yankees ML's.

- Pirates (-208) / Boston (-122) pays +169
- Pirates (-208) / Yankees (124) pays +232

[nosaij]

LETS RIDE IT OUT BROTHER. GL.

Didnt manage my BR properly, got carried away. so yea prob gonna split bet them again. cheers

[Snowball]

Red Sox chase completed (3)
Pirates chase completed (4)

Summary:
43 chases/fades won on 1st game
24 on 2nd game
8 on 3rd game
2 on 4th game
1 discontinued after 3rd
1 discontinued after 4th

active
(5) Yankees will be ML again +104

[Snowball]

Yankees chase completed (5)

Final Results:

43 chases/fades won on 1st game
24 on 2nd game
8 on 3rd game
2 on 4th game
1 on 5th game
1 discontinued after 3rd
1 discontinued after 4th

[altieriflyers]

Great. Till hockey then. Cheers

[Snowball]

even though i ended the chase/fade for this year,
i figure i may as well post my spot plays..

going with Pirates tonight ML , laying the juice.