MLB Chase experiment

[arpeggiomeister]

OAK wins account now $2,081.85

Today's game:

OAK (Athletics) vs TOR (Bluejays) OAK Moneyline -105 Risk $81 to win 77.14

I have switched to the anti martingale in hopes of riding the A's momentum

[jolmscheid]

Will be watching!

[arpeggiomeister]

OAK lost account now $2,000.85.

When I lose in the hybrid system (only in the anti-martingale phase) as I just did the whole process starts over. This can be tedious as you will get very close to your goal only to get knocked down to the starting point several times. When it works it is very quick though. Once you switch to the anti-martingale compound interest takes over and at a rate of 90% or greater.

I have time to squeeze another game in so here is my second game:

WASH (Nationals) vs MIL (Brewers) WASH Moneyline +115 risk $25 to win $28.75.

[arpeggiomeister]

Late game wins. Account now $2,029.60

Today's game looks almost identical to last night:

WASH (Nationals) vs MIL (Brewers) WASH Moneyline +110 risk $29 to win $31.90.

At this point I will chase if I lose.

[arpeggiomeister]

Kind of up and down at the moment. Wash loses, account at $2,000.60

I'll be betting two games today. These are not random choices so I will explain my thought process

Early game:

DET (Tigers) vs TOR (Bluejays) DET Runline +115 risk $58 to win $66.70

I am looking for mismatches in the power rankings. I looked at the ESPN power rankings and the Tigers have been on the rise. I am hoping to ride their momentum. The Bluejays are in the middle of the pack on power rankings. Not quite the mismath I was hoping for but my second game is.

Late game:


CIN (Reds) vs COL (Rockies) CIN Runline -110

If the early game wins I will risk $67 to win $60.90

If the early game loses I will risk $116 to win $105.45

There are 3 phases to the system I am using. In the first phase I will build "house money" with a chase system. I am looking to build $100. If I win I use the winnings to make my next wager. If I lose I will give chase.

The second phase begins once I have attained $100+. I bet the winnings but if I lose I will not chase, thus knocking me back to the beginning. I am looking to get 2 wins in a row during this phase. If I bet $100 at +110 and win I will have $210, If I repeat this my $210 would turn into $441.

When the second phase is completed I will return to the first phase to get to my goal of $525. Once I have reached this goal I recalculate 26% of the new amount and begin the process over. This starts the compounding process. If I am successul at completing 3 cycles at this rate I will double my money.

With real money I would most likely exit the sport and wait for the next one. Where I am paper trading I may continue until Football gets underway.

[jolmscheid]

Like it...im watching

[arpeggiomeister]

Detroit loses, Reds win. Account is now at $2,048.05

I have 2 games today. My power ranking mismatch paid off so I am going to try it again. The bet looks identical to yesterday:

CIN (Reds) vs COL (Rockies) CIN Runline -110 -1.5 risk $48 to win $43.63

I was spying the over on the Redsox/Yankees yesterda and did not go for it... ...so it hits. lol I will try it today for my late game:


BOS (Redsox) vs NYY (Yankees) Over 10 -105

If the early game wins I will risk $94 to win $89.52

If I lose I will risk $96 to win $91.42

I have been caught in a very tight cycle lately so the task of getting 2 wins in a row seems daunting at the moment. Quite a different scenario from when this experiment started. I put virtually no thought into the picks and couldn't seem to lose. This approach is far more risky that the 1 unit progression but if it works the payoff will be much faster. I'll keep plugging and see what happens.

[arpeggiomeister]

Slight math error, the second game should be risk $91 to win $86.67 if the first game wins. This looks to be the scenario as the Reds are currently winning.

[arpeggiomeister]

Sox go under, loss account now $2,000.68

Today's game:

CIN (Reds) vs SD (Padres) CIN Runline -1.5 +125 Risk $182 to win $227.50

[arpeggiomeister]

Cin loses, account now $1,818

today's game:

CIN (Reds) vs SD (Padres) CIN Runline -1.5 +120 risk $318 to win $381.60

[arpeggiomeister]

Every underdog for the power ranking mismatch strategy I was watching won. The Padres creamed the Reds. The Cubs slaughtered the Pirates. The Orioles beat the Yankees by 1 run and the Twins did the same to the White Sox. The Astros lost by 1 rub to the Brewers thus beating the Runline. No matter what I chose out of these games I would have lost.

I hope this streak does not continue. I am being stubborn and trying the same matchup again. I did not completely double up on the bet, giving me 2 more tiers to play with. No matter, I'm on dangerous ground at the moment.

[arpeggiomeister]

CIN wins... ...by 1 run Account now $1,500.68

Coming down to the wire now. I considered going all in for I do not have enough to double up 2 more times. I will bet $700. This will leave $800 to try and rebuild.

Today's game:

MIL (Brewers) vs HOU (Astros) MIL -1.5 Runline -115 $700 to win $608

[arpeggiomeister]

MIL wins 13-4. Account now $2,108.68. Chasing the $91 bet was a dangerous move. Luck smiled on me and I survive for another round. I am now ready for the second phase; the Anti-Martingale phase. I need two wins in a row to make it to phase 3. If I lose during this phase I return to phase one and try to build up again.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have just enough time to squeak in a second game today.

Late game:

BOS (Redsox) vs DET (Tigers) BOS Moneyline -110 $108 to win $98.18

[jolmscheid]

I really do like the anti-martingale approach to really deliver large increases in profits...however how can one do it a little safer to get to the +1 profit?

Maybe do a 1 unit progression on + odds and once +1 unit is reached, then do the anti-martingale for 2 games in a row? If one of those two games lose, you are down 0 and start the 1 unit progression again to get to +1 unit and do it again?

[arpeggiomeister]

I really do like the anti-martingale approach to really deliver large increases in profits...however how can one do it a little safer to get to the +1 profit?

Maybe do a 1 unit progression on + odds and once +1 unit is reached, then do the anti-martingale for 2 games in a row? If one of those two games lose, you are down 0 and start the 1 unit progression again to get to +1 unit and do it again?

Chasing the $91 bet was definately risky and not something I am looking to repeat. There are no set rules to this.

There are two forces that chasing tries to compromise with. The best chance of doubling your money in a random game of chance is to bet everything at once. You have no survivability, but if you hit, you double. The longer you stay in the game while playing against a negative EV the odds increase against you.

The smaller your bets are the longer you can survive. This decreases your chances of doubling your money.

The Hybrid System tries to balance these two opposing forces. The more variations of the Martingale you have the more creative you can be when mixing and matching. I have studied the variations and it allows my a more fluid and personalized approach instead of being rigid and stuck to one way of doing things.

When I was getting into trouble with the 1 unit approach I decided to cut my losses (which actually put me back to even). I then opted to get more aggressive. I went too far the other way. I dodged a bullet for sure.

[arpeggiomeister]

Redsox lose, account now $2,000.68. Back to phase 1.

Today's game:

CIN (Reds) vs SD (Padres) CIN Runline -1.5 +100 $25 to win $25

Late game:


BOS (Redsox) vs MIN (Twins) Over 10 -110

If early game wins bet $27.50 to win $25

If early game loses bet $55 to win $50

[insapbola]

nice thread, but i have seen:
MIL (Brewers) vs HOU (Astros) MIL -1.5 Runline -115 $700 to win $608

how many losses do you have until need to bet 700 from 25?? I thought it only increase by 1 unit
like
25 L
50 L
75 L
100 L
125 W
150 W
...

[arpeggiomeister]

nice thread, but i have seen:
MIL (Brewers) vs HOU (Astros) MIL -1.5 Runline -115 $700 to win $608

how many losses do you have until need to bet 700 from 25?? I thought it only increase by 1 unit
like
25 L
50 L
75 L
100 L
125 W
150 W
...

The answer to that question is that I switched strategies after a major losing streak where the Oakland Athletics swept the NY Yankees. I switched to a hybrid system where I use a Martingale system instead of the one unit progression. Once I build $100 I stop chasing and switch to an Anti-Martingale for 2 games. This compounds the profits quickly, however if I lose I have to start over.

I chose to switch strategies because I realized I would have already reached my 26% goal had I used this strategy with the major win streak I opened with. The downside is there is much more risk... ...as you saw with the $700 bet. It is a compromise between sustainability and profit. The more aggressive the strategy the faster you profit and the more risky it is.

I have a multitude of chasing strategies which allows me to be fluid and adjust my game based on what is transpiring in the moment. If I feel strongly enough about a particular game it does not matter where I am at in the progression, I will take a shot. If I have not yet broken 26% by the time the NFL season opens you will probably see me do just that. I have my eye on the Patriots vs Titans opener. If I like the spread I will take a shot on that game.

I got into trouble because I was using the Anti-Martingale and chasing any loss as long as it was under $100. I lost a $91 bet and gave chase and within 4 bets I was up to $700. After a $182 I did not double, I bet $318. That bet lost and I considered go all in on the last bet because I would not have enough to give chase again. If I lost I would have $800 to try and build back to $2,000. Had I gone all in I would have bet $1,500. I chose the more conservative route. There is no question that the choice to chase the $91 bet put me into a scary position quickly.

I am still using a more aggressive strategy, but I will not repeat that mistake. A standard Martingale can only go 6 tiers deep with a $25 unit. The one unit progression can go much deeper but does not profit as quickly.

[arpeggiomeister]

CIN 9 vs SD 4 - bet wins. Account now $2,025.68

Hopefully there are lots of runs in tonight's Redsox game.

[insapbola]

DUde, I think your strategy quite complicated now? you use standard martingale, and also go with anti martingale.....
i created a sheet for 2nd half of MLB

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvScsYMrmMkkdFRuZXVXdFloakpjQ2ZrVHV1UlpFcGc#gid=44

only flat bets, most of free cappers and it alread generates some profits. maybe your strategy can be implemented using picks from certain cappers which rarely (but later will) loss 4 in a row?


ur chase like crusher? 4 times chase?

[jolmscheid]

I like that spreadsheet insapbola...you think you could post one on here that is unlocked?

I would like to use that if you don't mind

[arpeggiomeister]

DUde, I think your strategy quite complicated now? you use standard martingale, and also go with anti martingale.....
i created a sheet for 2nd half of MLB

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvScsYMrmMkkdFRuZXVXdFloakpjQ2ZrVHV1UlpFcGc#gid=44

only flat bets, most of free cappers and it alread generates some profits. maybe your strategy can be implemented using picks from certain cappers which rarely (but later will) loss 4 in a row?


ur chase like crusher? 4 times chase?

I do not have time at the moment, but I promise I will take a closer look tonight and give you a response. I am open to any and all ideas that make money. I have always maintained that if you could combine good handi-capping skills with a chase system that it would be virtually unbeatable.

I know this system is more complex, but simplicity is not a concern for me. Profitability and flexibility are my two concerns. If something is not working I will switch strategies rather than staying locked into one rigid system. Sometimes it does not matter what you do, you end up losing, but other times being flexible and switching can be the difference between winning and losing.

[arpeggiomeister]

Sox go under. loss - account now $1,998.18.

I am trying something a little more aggressive today. I am laying odds that are larger then -110. If I lose this will be more expensive to chase. I am doing this because I have been exploring my power ranking mismatch experiment. This is the biggest mismatch on the boards.

Todays game:

ATL (Braves) vs HOU (Astros) ATL Runline -1.5 -130 $68 to win $52.30

[arpeggiomeister]

DUde, I think your strategy quite complicated now? you use standard martingale, and also go with anti martingale.....
i created a sheet for 2nd half of MLB

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvScsYMrmMkkdFRuZXVXdFloakpjQ2ZrVHV1UlpFcGc#gid=44

only flat bets, most of free cappers and it alread generates some profits. maybe your strategy can be implemented using picks from certain cappers which rarely (but later will) loss 4 in a row?


ur chase like crusher? 4 times chase?

I have analyzed the spreadsheet. Chase systems work very well with this. I adjusted to the Hybrid Martingale so you could see the power of it. The Hybrid is very tricky because you must get two wins in the Anti-Martingale without any losses or you are sent back to the beginning. I aimed for $200 to switch in the Anti-Martingale because that brought me up to the 3 game win streak needed to get through the Anti-Martingale phase. That was cherry picking my moment to strike. In real life we do not have that luxury, but this clearly demonstrates the power of this strategy when you succeed with it.

My main reason for these experiments is the thought that if i could somehow win just 26% in 3 sports a year I could make 100% a year. At that rate it would take 6 years to turn $2,000 into $128,000. With records like what you have posted this would be very acheivable.

Dunkel.Index Straight Martingale $25 per unit. Adjust bet size to win $25 on negative odds. Starting bankroll $2,000.

http://www.dunkelindex.com/MLB_Baseball_Schedule.asp

Date Tip a1 wod lod Odd Result BET W/L Euro W/L US track by insapbola
13-Jul-2012 Washington (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 WIN 100 105 105


Bet $25 win - $2,026.50
14-Jul-2012 Seattle (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 WIN 100 105 105


Bet $25 win - $2,053
15-Jul-2012 Chicago Cubs (-115) -115 1 -1.15 1.87 WIN 100 87 100


Bet $28.75 win - $2,078 (notice I wagered $28.75. This is because the odds are -115. I adjusted to make the win $25)
16-Jul-2012 Washington (-110) -110 1 -1.1 1.91 LOSE 100 -100 -110


Bet $27.50 lose – $2,050.50


17-Jul-2012 San Diego (-120) -120 1 -1.2 1.83 WIN 100 83 100


Bet $63 win $2,103
18-Jul-2012 LA Angels (-115) -115 1 -1.15 1.87 LOSE 100 -100 -115


Bet $28.75 loss - $2,074.25
19-Jul-2012 Chicago Cubs (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 WIN 100 105 105


Bet $51.19 win - $2,128
20-Jul-2012 Milwaukee (+120) 120 1.2 -1 2.2 LOSE 100 -100 -100


Bet $25 loss $2,103
21-Jul-2012 Texas (-120) -120 1 -1.2 1.83 WIN 100 83 100


Bet $60 win $2,153
22-Jul-2012 San Diego (-110) -110 1 -1.1 1.91 WIN 100 91 100


Bet $27.50 win - $2,178
23-Jul-2012 Atlanta (+110) 110 1.1 -1 2.1 LOSE 100 -100 -100


Bet $25 loss - $2,153
24-Jul-2012 Oakland (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 WIN 100 105 105


Bet $25 win - $2,179.25
25-Jul-2012 Chicago Cubs (+110) 110 1.1 -1 2.1 LOSE 100 -100 -100


Bet $25 loss - $2,154.25
26-Jul-2012 Baltimore (+100) 100 1 -1 2 WIN 100 100 100


Bet $50 win $2,204.25
27-Jul-2012 Toronto (-110) -110 1 -1.1 1.91 WIN 100 91 100


Bet $27.50 win - $2,229.25
28-Jul-2012 Chicago Cubs (+100) 100 1 -1 2 WIN 100 100 100


Bet $25 win - $2,254.25
29-Jul-2012 San Francisco (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 LOSE 100 -100 -100


Bet $25 loss - $2,229.25
30-Jul-2012 Detroit (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 LOSE 100 -100 -100


Bet $50 loss $2,179.25
31-Jul-2012 Oakland (-115) -115 1 -1.15 1.87 LOSE 100 -100 -115


Bet $115 loss - $2,064.25


July Euro July US
1-Aug-2012 Seattle (-105) -105 1 -1.05 1.95 WIN 100 95 100 255 280


Bet $225.75 win $2,279.25
2-Aug-2012 Texas (-115) -115 1 -1.15 1.87 WIN 100 87 100 11-8


Bet $28.75 win - $2,304.25


(57.89%)


The Grand Martingale attempts to win one unit per bet. It does this by multiplying your loss by 2 and adding 1 unit. This is more risky then the standard martingale. This sequence can survive it with ease. The most you have to risk in this example is $336.52 in the second to last game (after the 3 game losing streak). I generally avoid the grand martingale because it adds up so quickly, but I thought it would be good to include here. You end with a win in this sequence so this would make a $525 dollar profit. This is right on my personal target. 26% is the magic number. If you can do this 3 times a year and compound your profits each time this will give you a 100% gain for the year.


Dunkel.Index Hybrid Martingale $25 per unit. Adjust bet size to win $25 on negative odds. Starting bankroll $2,000. Phase 1 – Straight Martingale to $200. Phase 2 – Anti-Martingale for two games. If you lose during phase 2 you do not chase. You start with Phase 1 again.


Date Tip a1 wod lod Odd Result BET W/L Euro W/L US track by insapbola
13-Jul-2012 Washington (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 WIN 100 105 105


Bet $25 win - $2,026.50
14-Jul-2012 Seattle (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 WIN 100 105 105


Bet $25 win - $2,053
15-Jul-2012 Chicago Cubs (-115) -115 1 -1.15 1.87 WIN 100 87 100


Bet $28.75 win - $2,078 (notice I wagered $28.75. This is because the odds are -115. I adjusted to make the win $25)
16-Jul-2012 Washington (-110) -110 1 -1.1 1.91 LOSE 100 -100 -110


Bet $27.50 lose – $2,050.50


17-Jul-2012 San Diego (-120) -120 1 -1.2 1.83 WIN 100 83 100


Bet $63 win $2,103
18-Jul-2012 LA Angels (-115) -115 1 -1.15 1.87 LOSE 100 -100 -115


Bet $28.75 loss - $2,074.25
19-Jul-2012 Chicago Cubs (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 WIN 100 105 105


Bet $51.19 win - $2,128
20-Jul-2012 Milwaukee (+120) 120 1.2 -1 2.2 LOSE 100 -100 -100


Bet $25 loss $2,103
21-Jul-2012 Texas (-120) -120 1 -1.2 1.83 WIN 100 83 100


Bet $60 win $2,153
22-Jul-2012 San Diego (-110) -110 1 -1.1 1.91 WIN 100 91 100


Bet $27.50 win - $2,178
23-Jul-2012 Atlanta (+110) 110 1.1 -1 2.1 LOSE 100 -100 -100


Bet $25 loss - $2,153
24-Jul-2012 Oakland (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 WIN 100 105 105


Bet $25 win - $2,179.25
25-Jul-2012 Chicago Cubs (+110) 110 1.1 -1 2.1 LOSE 100 -100 -100


Bet $25 loss - $2,154.25
26-Jul-2012 Baltimore (+100) 100 1 -1 2 WIN 100 100 100


Bet $50 win $2,204.25
27-Jul-2012 Toronto (-110) -110 1 -1.1 1.91 WIN 100 91 100


Bet $204.25 win - $2,389.93
28-Jul-2012 Chicago Cubs (+100) 100 1 -1 2 WIN 100 100 100


Bet $25 win - $2,779.86 (adjust minimum bet to $35. Compounding process begins)
29-Jul-2012 San Francisco (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 LOSE 100 -100 -100


Bet $35 loss - $2,744.86
30-Jul-2012 Detroit (+105) 105 1.05 -1 2.05 LOSE 100 -100 -100


Bet $70 loss $2,674.86
31-Jul-2012 Oakland (-115) -115 1 -1.15 1.87 LOSE 100 -100 -115


Bet $161 loss - $2,513.86


July Euro July US
1-Aug-2012 Seattle (-105) -105 1 -1.05 1.95 WIN 100 95 100 255 280


Bet $316.05 win - $2,814.86
2-Aug-2012 Texas (-115) -115 1 -1.15 1.87 WIN 100 87 100 11-8


Bet $40.25 win - $2,849.86

[arpeggiomeister]

power ranking mismatch strategy pays off again.

ATL 4 vs HOU 1 account now $2,050.48

[arpeggiomeister]

Continuing to fade the Astros today. I am going to start the Anti-martingale with a $50 bet. I will give chase if this bet loses. If it wins I will be just shy of $100. I may bet $95 to continue the Anti-Martingale, or I may chose to do one more $25 chase to put me over $100. It will depend greatly on my gut. The Astros are playing an away game and they are the worst team in the power rankings while the Braves are fairly high. If they get smoked I'll be all over it for the sweep. If my $50 bet loses I will chase that, and then more then likely do a $25 chase to get me over the $100 milestone.

A $50 chase will only allow me 5 tiers. $50 + $100 + $200 +$400 + $800 = $1,550. Once adjusted for negative odds that number will be larger. It is pretty gutsy but necassary if I am to reach 26% before week 1 of the NFL regular season.

Today's game:

ATL (Braves) vs HOU (Astros) ATL Runline -1.5 -110 $50 to win $45.45

[arpeggiomeister]

HOU3 vs ATL2 loss Account is now $2,000.48

Today's game:

ATL (Braves) vs HOU (Astros) ATL Runline -1.5 -115 $100 to win $86.95

[arpeggiomeister]

Braves win 6-1 Account now $2,087.43

Astros face the Nationals for a 4 game series. I plan to fade them.

[arpeggiomeister]

Today's Game:

WASH (Nationals) vs HOU (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -115 $25 to win $21.74

[arpeggiomeister]

WASH 5 HOU 4 loss account $2,062.43

Today's game:

WASH (Nationals) vs HOU (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -115 risk $62 to win $53.91

[arpeggiomeister]

Wash 3 HOU 2 loss $2,000.43

Today's game:

WASH (Nationals) vs HOU (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -145 $145 to win $100


Taking quite a risk chasing this. -145 is more than I like to lay down but I am sticking with my strategy. I may avoid the Anti-Martingale phase because I am not hitting the kind of streak needed to succeed. If this works I may do a very aggressive straight Martingale. I'll see what happens and decide once I get there.

I have been caught in a tight pattern lately which is ideal for the Martingale. The Anti-martingale needs winnings streaks to work.

[arpeggiomeister]

Astros are being stubborn and hanging in there Wash 4 vs HOU 3. I'm being stubborn too. Try this again

Account $1855.43

Today's game:

WASH 4 (Nationals) vs HOU 3 (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -110 $290 to win $263.63

[arpeggiomeister]

WASH 5 HOU 0 Account $2,119.06

TOday's game:

COL (Rockies) vs SF (Giants) SF Runline -105 $119 to win $113.33

(my apologies, I had posted they were facing the Brewers... ...I have been fading the Astros and the Brewers were the next opponent. Glad I caught that before game time)

[arpeggiomeister]

COL 3 vs SF 0 loss Account now $2,000.06

Having trouble getting traction. I have been caught in a tight formation with slightly more losses then wins lately. I am going increase my unit size from $25 to $100 to try and counter. This is very risky because I can only go 4 levels deep. So far this 4 level system would have survived my record since switching to the power ranking mismatch approach. I will try it and see if I can get some traction.

Today's game:

COL (Rockies) vs SF (Giants) SF Runline -110 $110 to win $100