MLB Chase experiment

[arpeggiomeister]

I'll try and squeak in a late game

WASH (Nationals) vs ARI (Diamondbacks) WASH Moneyline +115

If the early game wins risk $100 to win $115

If early game loses risk $200 to win $230

[arpeggiomeister]

Finally gaining a little traction. COL 3 vs SF 9 and WASH 6 vs ARI 5. Been a while since I won 2 in a row. Account is now $2,225.05. I will continue with a straight Martingale at $100 per unit at this time.

I find it interesting to note that so far in this experiment I have 27 wins and 27 losses, exactly a 50/50 split. The "Pendulum Cycle" is working exactly as it should for the oddsmakers. I am currently up roughly 10%. I have had 5 strategy changes to date:

1. I started betting on overs using a 1 unit progression with a $25 unit. I started off really hot and would have been better served with a Hybrid Martingale or straight Martingale, but it is impossible to know that until after the fact.
2. After a 12 game win streak (with 2 losses) I noticed the pendulum swing from overs to unders. It was not prominent enough for me to chase so I switched to Runlines and Moneylines
3. After suffering a major losing streak I switched from the 1 unit progression to the Hybrid Martingale (A combination of s Straight Martingale and an Anti-Martingale) The 1 unit progression saved me during this streak, but had I continued to use it I feared I would have been wiped out. This fear turned out to be correct. I had peaked at $2,400 on 7/14 and dropped below $2,000 by 7/20. Cutting my losses and switching strategies at this juncture turned out to be a critical move. Had I continued with the 1 unit progression without cutting my losses I would have been wiped out by 8/7. The irony of this is I survived by switching from a conservative strategy to a very aggressive one. The reason the one unit system would have failed is because after the 6 game losing streak I was still losing more then winning. I eventually balanced out back to 50/50. The problem with the one unit progression is that it does not correct your losses in one shot. If you suffer a large losing streak and then get caught in a tight pattern of win/loss, win/loss, the one unit system will just continue digging the hole deeper and deeper.
4. I switched from a completely random approach where I was essentially picking games out of a hat to what I call a power rankings mismatch. I am still not handi-capping the games, but I am looking for matchups where teams at the top of the ESPN power rankings are facing the teams at the bottom. I fade the bottom teams. This approach has given me "good" results. By good I mean I have come out of a steep losing streak and into a pattern where I win one or two and then lose one or two. I am picking games right around 50/50 at the moment. I call this a "tight formation" or "at expectation".
5. I recognized I am caught in tight formation. A Hybrid System requires a win streak to work and will typically go nowhere if you are caught in a tight formation. This formation is tailor made for a Straight Martingale though. I have upped the unit size in hopes that this pattern remains consistent long enough for me to reach my target. It will take me roughly 3 more chases to reach this. 3 wins should get me close to $500. 26% of $2,000 is $520. If I am betting negative odds it may take a 4th win but I can drop off from $100 units to something less aggressive. This is a highly risky move. A losing streak of 4+ can wipe me out. We'll see what happens.

[arpeggiomeister]

Today's game

COL (Rockies) vs SF (Giants) SF Runline +145 $100 to win $145

I thought really hard about laying $190 to win 100 on CIN. There is no Runline available on this game at BETUS, otherwise I would be all over it. The Reds are currently #1 in the ESPN power rankings and the Cubs are 28th.

[arpeggiomeister]

SF 9 vs COL 6 win. Account now $2,370.05

[arpeggiomeister]

Today's game:

SD (Padres) vs ATL (Braves) ATL Runline +100 $100 to win $100

[arpeggiomeister]

SD9 vs ATL1 loss account now $2,270.05

today's game:

SD (Padres) vs ATL (Braves) ATL Runline +110 $200 to win $220

[arpeggiomeister]

SD 0 vs ATL 6 win account now $2,490.05

Today's game:

SD (Padres) vs ATL (Braves) Under 8 -115 $34.50 to win $30

[arpeggiomeister]

SD 1 vs ATL 6 win account is now $2,520.05

Success!!! I have reached 26%. I will post the details this afternoon and prepare for the next phase.

[thechaoz]

Let it roll ....get dat money

[arpeggiomeister]

Here are the results of this experiment. I have logged each bet that I placed. I have included the score by each team, the type of bet (moneyline, runline, over/under), the amount wagered, win/loss, and the adjusted bankroll after game results.

I apologize if their is any typos or missing info. I have gone over it several times and keep finding something new each time. All of these results have already been posted in this thread so the info is here. This is the one glance, compressed version.

1. 6/28/12 – SD 7 (Padres) vs HOU 3 (Astros) - Over 8.5 -105 $26.25 - win $2,025
   
2. 6/29/12 – PHI 2 (Phillies) vs MIA 6 (Marlins) - Over 7 -110 $27.50 - win $2,050
   
3. 6/30/12 – LAA 2 (Angels) vs TOR 11 (Bluejays) Over 10 (1pm) -110 $27.50 - win $2,075
   
4. 6/30/12 – NYM 5 (Mets) vs LAD 0 (Dodgers) Over 7 -105 $26.25 (7 pm) loss $2,048.75
   
5. 7/1/12 - WSH 8 (Nationals) vs ATL 4 (Braves) Moneyline WSH -110 win $52.50 $2,098.75
   
6. 7/1/12 - TEX 1 (Rangers) vs OAK 3 (Athletics) OAK team total 4 under -110 $55 - win $2,148.75
   
7. 7/2/12 - HOU 2 (Astros) vs PIT 11 (Pirates) Over 7.5 -110 $27.50 - win $2,173.75
   
8. 7/3/12 - BAL 5 (Orioles) vs SEA 4 (Mariners) Over 6.5 -105 $26.25 - win $2,198.75
   
9. 7/4/12 - PHI 9 (Phillies) vs NYM 2 (Mets) Over 8 -105 $26.25 - win $2,223.75
   
10. 7/4/12 - TEX 4 (Rangers) vs CWS 5 (White Sox) CWS moneyline -105 $26.50 - win $2,248.75
    
11. 7/5/12 - PHI 5 (Phillies) vs NYM 6 (Mets) Over 7 -110 $27.50 - win $2,273.75
    
12. 7/6/12 - ATL 5 (Braves) vs PHI 0 (Phillies) Over 9 -110 $27.50 - loss $2,245.25
    
13. 7/7/12 - *CWS 2 (Whitesox) vs TOR 0 (Bluejays) Runline -1.5 CWS +135 $50 - win $2,312.75 * noticed a swing from overs to unders. Not strong enough to convince me to chase so I switched to Runlines and Moneylines
    
14. 7/7/12 - BAL 0 (Orioles) vs LAA 3 (Angels) LAA Runline -1.5 +120 $25 - win $2,342.75
    
15. 7/8/12 - COL 4 (Rockies) vs WASH 3 (Nationals) WASH Runline -1.5 +105 $25 - loss $2,318.75
    
16. 7/10/12 - National League 5 vs American League 0 AL Runline -1.5 +160 $50 – loss $2,268.75
    
17. 7/14/12 - LAA 3 (Angels) vs NYY 5 (Yankees) NYY Runline +130 $75 – win $2,366.25
    
18. 7/14/12 - TB 5 (Rays) vs BOS 3 (Redsox) TB Runline -1.5 +135 $25 – win $2,400
    
19. 7/15/12 - SD 7 (Padres) vs LAD 2 (Dodgers) LAD Runline -1.5 +135 $25 – loss $2,375
    
20. 7/16/12 - CWS 1 (Whitesox) vs BOS 5 (Redsox) CWS moneyline +110 $50 - loss $2,325
    
21. 7/17/12 - NYM 4 (Mets) vs WSH 5 (Nationals) WSH Runline -1.5 +160 $75 – loss $2,250
    
22. 7/18/12 - TOR 0 (Bluejays) vs NYY 6 (Yankees) NYY Runline -1.5 +105 $100 – win $2,355
    
23. 7/18/12 - ARI 7 (Diamondbacks) vs CIN 1 (Reds) CIN Runline -1.5 +150 $50 – loss $2,305
    
24. 7/19/12 - CLE 0 (Indians) vs TB 6 (Rays) Over 7.5 -110 $75 – loss $2,230
    
25. 7/19/12 - OAK 4 (Athletics) vs NYY 3 NYY Runline -1.5 +145 $100 - loss $2,130
    
26. 7/20/12 - * OAK 3 (Athletics) vs NYY 2 NYY Runline -1.5 +125 $125 – loss $2,005 *I cut my losses, sensing imminent destruction if I continued to give chase
    
27. 7/21/12 - OAK 2 (Athletics) vs NYY 1 NYY Runline -1.5 +130 $30 - loss $1,975
    
28. 7/22/12 - OAK 5 (Athletics) vs NYY 4 NYY Runline -1.5 -110 $75 – loss $1,900
    
29. 7/23/12 - SEA 1 (Mariners) vs NYY 4 NYY Runline -1.5 -105 $150 – win $2,042.85
    
30. 7/24/12 - SEA 4 (Mariners) vs NYY 2 (Yankees) NYY Moneyline +100 $30 – loss $2,012.85
    
31. 7/25/12 - OAK 16 (Athletics) vs TOR 0 (Bluejays) OAK Moneyline +115 $60 – win $2,081.85
    
32. 7/26/12 - OAK 4 (Athletics) vs TOR 10 (Bluejays) OAK Moneyline -105 $81 – loss $2,000.85
    
33. 7/26/12 - *WASH 8 (Nationals) vs MIL 2 (Brewers) WASH Moneyline +115 $25 – win $2,029.60 *After suffering a large losing streak I changed from a 1 unit progression to a Hybrid Martingale.
    
34. 7/27/12 - WASH 0 (Nationals) vs MIL 6 (Brewers) WASH Moneyline +110 $29 – loss $2,000.60
    
35. 7/28/12 - DET 1 (Tigers) vs TOR 5 (Bluejays) DET Runline +115 $58 – loss $1,942.60
    
36. 7/28/12 - CIN 9 (Reds) vs COL 7 (Rockies) CIN Runline -110 -1.5 $116 - win $2,048.05
    
37. 7/29/12 - CIN 7 (Reds) vs COL 2 (Rockies) CIN Runline -110 -1.5 $48 – win $2.091.68
    
38. 7/29/12 - BOS 3 (Redsox) vs NYY 2 (Yankees) Over 10 -105 $91 – loss - $2,000.68
    
39. 7/30/12 - CIN 5 (Reds) vs SD 11 (Padres) CIN Runline -1.5 +125 $182 – loss $1,818.68
    
40. 7/31/12 - CIN 7 (Reds) vs SD 6 (Padres) CIN Runline -1.5 +120 $318 – loss $1,500.68
    
41. 8/1/12 - MIL13 (Brewers) vs HOU 4 (Astros) MIL -1.5 Runline -115 $700 - win $2,108.68
    
42. 8/1/12 - BOS 5 (Redsox) vs DET 7 (Tigers) BOS Moneyline -110 $108 - loss $2,000.68
    
43. 8/2/12 - CIN 9 (Reds) vs SD 4 (Padres) CIN Runline -1.5 +100 $25 – win $2,025.68
    
44. 8/2/12 - BOS 0 (Redsox) vs MIN 5 (Twins) Over 10 -110 $27.50 – loss $1,998.18
    
45. 8/3/12 - *ATL 4 (Braves) vs HOU 1 (Astros) ATL Runline -1.5 -130 $68 – win $2,050.48 *I started choosing games by trying to find a mismatch in power rankings on ESPN. The Astros are dead last, and the Braves were in the top 10 at this time.
    
46. 8/4/12 - ATL 2 (Braves) vs HOU 3 (Astros) ATL Runline -1.5 -110 $50 – loss $2,000.48
    
47. 8/5/12 - ATL 6 (Braves) vs HOU 1 (Astros) ATL Runline -1.5 -115 $100 – win $2,087.43
    
48. 8/6/12 - WASH 5 (Nationals) vs HOU 4 (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -115 $25 – loss $2,062.43
    
49. 8/7/12 - WASH 3 (Nationals) vs HOU 2 (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -115 $62 – loss $2,000.43
    
50. 8/8/12 - WASH 4 (Nationals) vs HOU 3 (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -145 $145 - loss $1,855.43
    
51. 8/9/12 - WASH 5 (Nationals) vs HOU 0 (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -110 $290- win $2,119.05
    
52. 8/10/12 - COL 3 (Rockies) vs SF 0 (Giants) SF Runline -105 $119 – loss $2,000.05
    
53. 8/11/12 - * COL 3 (Rockies) vs SF 9 (Giants) SF Runline -110 $110 – win $2,110.05 *I recognized that I have been caught in a tight formation. I call this performing “at expectation”. It is very difficult to get a Hybrid Martingale to work for it needs a winning streak to succeed. I switched to a straight Martingale with a $100 unit. This is very risky because I can only go 4 tiers deep, but if the win/loss pattern remains as tight as it has been I should reach my goal quickly.
    
54. 8/11/12 - WASH 6 (Nationals) vs ARI 5 (Diamondbacks) WASH Moneyline +115 – win $2,225.05
    
55. 8/12/12 - * COL 6 (Rockies) vs SF 9 (Giants) SF Runline +145 $100 – win $2,370.05 I apparently gave up on the hybrid system too soon. This game would have put me past my goal. I am doing well so I can't be too upset.
    
56. 8/13/12 - SD 4 (Padres) vs ATL 1 (Braves) ATL Runline +100 $100 – loss $2,270.05
    
57. 8/14/12 - * SD 0 (Padres) vs ATL 6 (Braves) ATL Runline +110 $200 – win $2,490.05 *Switching to $100 unit was successful and after this win I am now in range of my $520 goal. This was a tremendous risk because I only had 4 tiers to chase with. I have backed off the $100 unit, but I'm still betting more then the $25. I am $30 away from my target and I am going to attempt to get it in this next chase.
    
58. 8/15/12 - SD 1 (Padres) vs ATL 6 (Braves) Under 8 -115 $34.50 – win $2,520.05

[arpeggiomeister]

I started this experiment with a random approach. I have done this for the past 5 years with the NFL, betting 1 early game, the Sunday Night game, and Monday Night. I played the favorite for each game with a 7 tier chase system and it has worked for 5 years running.

This random approach started off well, but quickly turned ugly. From what I have seen I think even a 10 tier chase system would not be deep enough to survive the MLB with a random approach. 10 tiers are so expensive that the ROI would be miniscule.

After trying several strategies I settled in on something I call the "power rank mismatch". I focused on the teams at the bottom: Astros, Rockies, Cubs, etc. and faded them when they matched up against teams in the top 10. At first I wasn't paying attention, but I tried to take this one step further by having the favored team also have home field advantage.

I have several strategies that I employed: the one unit progression, the Standard Martingale, the Hybrid Martingale. I used over/unders, runlines, and moneylines.

The most critical move I made was to let go of my profits when I went from a $400 profit back to the starting point. Had I continued to chase using the one unit progression it would have depleted my bankroll.

I was very aggressive towards the end. I recognized that I was caught in a pattern and chose a strategy for that pattern and executed. Perhaps I was just lucky, but it paid off.

Why 26%?

Because if you compound 26% three times it comes out to 100%

• $2,520
• $3,176
• $4,000

I have rounded up to the next dollar. If you hit 26% 3 times a year and continue this process for 6 years you could turn $2,000 into $128,000 through compound interest.

I was originally thinking MLB, NFL, and the NBA. I am thinking that the NHL might work better then the NBA. I had success with -1.5 runlines in the MLB. If the same strategy works in the NHL I think it would be easier than trying to judge a point spread. The purpose of this experiment is to explore those possibilities without the fear of crashing and burning.

I will start a new thread for the next phase. My target is $3,176.