MLB Chase experiment

[arpeggiomeister]

Thanks for the insight arp...so do you just keep track if most teams are going over / under and follow the trend or do you focus on certain teams going over / under and following that trend until it breaks?

Both pieces of info are important. Knowing where the individual team is performing will tell you where they are at in that cycle. If the majority of the league is in this trend as we are seeing now than it affects the bigger picture.

I was hard-pressed to find an Over for today that was -110. This means the pendulum is shifting and the odds are getting steeper. If I can't find prices I like than I may sit it out until the streak breaks or at least til prices come down. This has been an extraordinary run that defies logic considering how I have been picking teams.

When I started this I assumed the streaks would be around the same size as the NBA. Seeing this I think the MLB may have the largest streaks of any of the major sports. I may have to look into that deeper when I get some time.

[fataliz]

nice hit again

[arpeggiomeister]

PHI 5 vs NYM 6 Account now at $2,273.75

Todays game:

7/6/12 - ATL (Braves) vs PHI (Phillies) Over 9 -110 risk 27.50 to win $25

[arpeggiomeister]

nice hit again

Thanks brother. Ironically it seems the less I know the better I do. This happened to me the first year I bet on the NFL. I started getting serious about it. The more I learned the worse I did. lol

[arpeggiomeister]

ATL 5 vs PHI 0 loss account now $2,245.25

Today's game:


CWS (Whitesox) vs TOR (Bluejays) Runline -1.5 CWS +135 risk $50 to win $67.50

Late Game:


BAL (Orioles) vs LAA (Angels) LAA Runline -1.5 +120

if first game wins risk $25 to win $30

if first game loses risk $75 to win $90


Important note:

I have observed a clear shift in the over unders. There were 9 low scoring games yesterday. Is this an official reversal? I can't say for certain, but I have shifted to runlines for the moment, just to watch what happens.

My choices for runlines were not random. I have not handicapped the games, but I am trying to ride momentum. I chose the Whitesox because they seem to be hot right now. Their recent wins over the Rangers plus last night's win is the momentum I am looking at.

My second choice was based on the Vegas odds. The moneyline for LAA is -190. The runline is +120. I basically looked at the most favored moneyline game I could find for 10pm. If the runline were -115 or greater I would not take it. I may make exceptions in the future, but for now I am trying to stay at -110 or less.

[jolmscheid]

Good luck arp..

[arpeggiomeister]

Whitesox 2 vs Bluejays 0 Account is now up to $2,312.75 I have passed the halfway mark for reaching my target.

BAL vs LAA - LAA runline -1.5 +120 $25 to win $30

[arpeggiomeister]

Angels win 3-0 Account now at $2,342.75

Today's game:

COL (Rockies) vs WASH (Nationals) WASH Runline -1.5 +105 risk $25 to win $26.25

[arpeggiomeister]

I have noticed a clear shift in momentum from overs to unders. The overs were dominating just a few days ago, but I saw 6 games that definately went under and 3 more that were either under or right on the edge yesterday. There have been several games in the past couple days where the total has been set at 6.5, including two games today.

The under trend does not appear as strong as the over trend was. I prefer to ride overs because once the score has gone over it can go to infinity and you have won no matter what. Playing the under you watch your chances erode with every run. The trend has got to be strong to convince me to ride it.

I did good with runlines so I am riding that trend at the moment.

[arpeggiomeister]

COL 4 vs WASH 3 loss Acount is now $2,318.75

Todays game:

American League vs National League AL Runline -1.5 +160 risk $50 to win $80

[jolmscheid]

Hey arp..what about always getting + odds and keeping a very tight progression such as 1, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2...etc

Maybe this would keep your wagers down when on a losing streak..

[arpeggiomeister]

Hey arp..what about always getting + odds and keeping a very tight progression such as 1, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2...etc

Maybe this would keep your wagers down when on a losing streak..

I was actually thinking about that myself. I was also thinking if my back was against the wall taking heavy favorites -200 or more. Say i go on a losing streak and I am down around $1,300. I start laying large wagers on heavily favored teams.

They are both interesting thoughts. The beauty of an experiment like this is that if we lose we haven't really lost a thing. However, we gain knowledge in the process.

I think when a losing streak occurs it becomes necassary at some point to take a shot to get yourself back into the game. I first did these experiments on online roulette in free mode. Initially they think they can sucker you into losing real money so you win a lot, but after 10 or so trials things start to normalize.

The 1 unit progression fails after a certain point and the standard martingale gets you back into it. I have mixed and matched several combinations. I have one combination up my sleeve I call the hybrid martingale that I have had more success with then any other variation. You use the martingale to build a certain amount and then swtich to the anti-martingale in an attempt to double your money.

I would start with a bankroll of $200. I would build up $25 on the roulette wheel using a martingale progression and switch to the anti-martingale. It takes 3 bets starting at $25 to double $200.

-$25 to win $25
-$50 to win $50
-$100 to win $100


I am not comfortable enough with the MLB to try this, but come football season I fully intend on trying out this concept. I was thinking about building a certain amount and then risking it on 10 point teasers.

I like your thinking. In my opinion every idea is worth exploring. It is not about being right or wrong, it is about learning and thinking creatively. If we try out 100 bad ideas but pull out one gem than it was all worth it.

[arpeggiomeister]

COL 4 vs WASH 3 loss Acount is now $2,318.75

Todays game:

American League vs National League AL Runline -1.5 +160 risk $50 to win $80

Loss Account is now $2,268.75

[arpeggiomeister]

Friday the 13th. I'll be superstitious and sit this one out. We'll see what Saturday brings.

[arpeggiomeister]

Today's game:

LAA (Angels) vs NYY (Yankees) NYY Runline -1.5 +130 bet $75 to win $97.50

I am looking at a late game as well


TB (Rays) vs BOS (Redsox) TB Runline -1.5 +135

If the early game wins then I will bet $25 to win $33.75
If early game loses I will bet $100 to win $135.

[arpeggiomeister]

Hey arp..what about always getting + odds and keeping a very tight progression such as 1, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2...etc

Maybe this would keep your wagers down when on a losing streak..

I am playing on your idea right now. I am looking for favorites and betting on the runline. I am not decreasing the size of my wager. I got off to a quick start but now I have started encountering some losses. This will be the true test.

On my roulette tests of the 1 unit progression once the losing streak reached a certain level it seemed as though there was no return. That is why I think it is important to stay flexible instead of sticking rigidly to one plan.

Chasing is a gambler's strategy; meaning that I am willing to risk it all to stay in the game. If I see an opportunity to take a shot I'll take it. It is a very different attitude than the pros. They flatbet and trust their ability to pick winners 55% to 60% of the time. If I trusted my ability to do that than I would not bother with chase systems. Chase systems give a "square" a chance.

[jolmscheid]

Good Luck...I think if you can get + Odds you can run a 5 game + "chase" but your progression of units is relatively tight so you do not lose as much when the inevitable streak happens...

[arpeggiomeister]

Good Luck...I think if you can get + Odds you can run a 5 game + "chase" but your progression of units is relatively tight so you do not lose as much when the inevitable streak happens...

Just snapped the losing streak. Yankees win 5-3. Account is now $2,366.25.

Definately an interesting idea. I have been taking heavy favorites for the -1.5 runlines. Could also work on underdogs. The +odds allow you to chase deeper for sure. I also think the streaks will be longer. Could also do this with moneylines on underdogs.

MLB stats suck on goldsheet. I can't backtest anything like I can with the NBA or NFL. I'll look deeper into it, but without stats I am flying blind... ...which is exactly what the bookies want; fuzzy logic.

[arpeggiomeister]

It was a good day. TB 5 -3. Account now at $2,400

[arpeggiomeister]

Today's game:

SD (Padres) vs LAD (Dodgers) LAD Runline -1.5 +135 risk $25 to win $33.75

[arpeggiomeister]

Dodgers lose - Account now $2,375

Today's game:

CWS (Whitesox) vs BOS (Redsox) CWS moneyline +110 bet $50 to win $55

[arpeggiomeister]

CWS lose account now $2,325

Today's game:

NYM (Mets) vs WSH (Nationals) WSH Runline -1.5 +160 bet $75 to win $120

[arpeggiomeister]

Wash 5 Mets 4 loss Account now $2,250

Todays game:

Early - TOR (Bluejays) vs NYY (Yankees) NYY Runline -1.5 +105 $100 to win $105

Late - ARI (Diamondbacks) vs CIN (Reds) CIN Runline -1.5 +150

if early game loses then bet $125 to win $187.50
if early game wins then bet $50 to win $75

[arpeggiomeister]

ARI 7 CIN 1 loss Account now $2,305

Today's game

Early: CLE (Indians) vs TB (Rays) Over 7.5 -110 $75 to win $68.18

Late:
OAK (Athletics) vs NYY NYY Runline -1.5 +145

If the first game wins: risk $50 to win $72.50
If the first game loses risk $100 to win $145

[jolmscheid]

Hi arp...so are you doing a slower modified chase, or are you still doing an all out chase? Would like to talk with you about how to implement a chase for each sport...

[arpeggiomeister]

I am still doing a slower chase. I have hit a bit of a losing streak as of late. The TB/CLE game just went under and I am down to $2,230. I am on the Yankees tonight.

As much as it sucks losing, this is why I am doing this experiment... ...to see if I can survive the streak and come out with the 26%. My theories are being put to the test now.

As far as chase systems for each sport is concerned, I think you should be flexible. I have a number of tools.

• The one unit progression (which I have been using for this experiment)
• Standard martingale (double each losing bet)
• Grand Martingale (double each losing bet, plus one unit)
• Anti-martingale (double your bet each time you win. Exit after 3 or 4 wins. This is the quickest way to build a large profit. It is also very risky. Your exit point is critical)
• The Hybrid Martingale. (this is my own invention. I simply combined the Martingale with the Anti-martingale. Have only tested this on roulette so far, but I was planning to experiment with this in sports as well. If I can get this one to work I will double my money very quickly. You would use the Martingale System to build a certain amount, say $200. You then switch to the Anti-Martingale and risk the living crap out of that $200. If you exit after 3 bets, doubling each time you would go from $200 to $400, $400 to $800, then $800 to $1,600. There are times when this seems effortless and other times when it just seems impossible. When it works it builds a huge bankroll very quickly.)

That is my main arsenal of chase systems. I will jump from one system to another depending on the given situation. For example, if the losing streak persists in this MLB experiment I may switch from the 1 unit progression to a Standard Martingale to right the ship. The irony is that I would be taking on more risk by switching, but each win would count for more.

I am thinking that the 1 unit progression would be appropriate for the MLB and NBA. I am not sure what the NHL looks like as far as streaks go, but if losing streaks of 8 or more are common to that sport then I would use the one unit progression as my primary system.

I say primary system because when your back is against the wall it is sometimes necassary to take a shot to keep you in the game. You often see this in the World Series of Poker. A player is down on his luck. He goes all in. Next thing you know he is the chip leader at the table. It sometimes takes a gutsy move like that.

For the NFL last year I used a 5 tier Standard Martingale. I would prefer to use a 7 tier system but 5 was all I could afford. Streaks of 8+ happen in the NFL but they are not common like they are in the MLB or NBA. I am far more comfortable with the higher risk. The NFL is the only sport I have really put a lot of effort into learning how to handicap. A funny thing happened. The more I learned the worse I got. It was so bad at one point that if you wanted to make a crapload of money all you had to do is fade my bets. lol

That is why I started putting a lot of thought into the Martingale System. I realized that for all my efforts I was not seeing the results the pros have. The corrective quality of the Martingale intrigues me and makes me believe it is possible to succeed while only picking 50% winners.

It is all about the streaks. If you can find a way to tame the losing streaks then the Martingale System is a money machine. The Pendulum Cycle Theory is the key to solving this problem.

Just to recap.

• MLB - one unit progression
• NBA - one unit progression
• NFL - 7 tier Standard Martingale

Be prepared to mix and match the other strategies depending on the situation. If you are winning a lot you may want to consider trying the Anti-Martingale. If you are losing you may consider switching from one unit to the standard progression, or take a shot (aka all in... ...you do not have to go all in to take a shot, but it implies a large high risk bet to get you back into the game.)

[arpeggiomeister]

Still in a skid. NYY3 OAK4 account sown to $2,130

I am going to try to ride the Yankees for a while to see if I can snap the streak. Today's bet looks almost identical to yesterday.

OAK (Athletics) vs NYY NYY Runline -1.5 +125 risk $125 to win $156.25

[jolmscheid]

I am still doing a slower chase. I have hit a bit of a losing streak as of late. The TB/CLE game just went under and I am down to $2,230. I am on the Yankees tonight.

As much as it sucks losing, this is why I am doing this experiment... ...to see if I can survive the streak and come out with the 26%. My theories are being put to the test now.

As far as chase systems for each sport is concerned, I think you should be flexible. I have a number of tools.

• The one unit progression (which I have been using for this experiment)
• Standard martingale (double each losing bet)
• Grand Martingale (double each losing bet, plus one unit)
• Anti-martingale (double your bet each time you win. Exit after 3 or 4 wins. This is the quickest way to build a large profit. It is also very risky. Your exit point is critical)
• The Hybrid Martingale. (this is my own invention. I simply combined the Martingale with the Anti-martingale. Have only tested this on roulette so far, but I was planning to experiment with this in sports as well. If I can get this one to work I will double my money very quickly. You would use the Martingale System to build a certain amount, say $200. You then switch to the Anti-Martingale and risk the living crap out of that $200. If you exit after 3 bets, doubling each time you would go from $200 to $400, $400 to $800, then $800 to $1,600. There are times when this seems effortless and other times when it just seems impossible. When it works it builds a huge bankroll very quickly.)

That is my main arsenal of chase systems. I will jump from one system to another depending on the given situation. For example, if the losing streak persists in this MLB experiment I may switch from the 1 unit progression to a Standard Martingale to right the ship. The irony is that I would be taking on more risk by switching, but each win would count for more.

I am thinking that the 1 unit progression would be appropriate for the MLB and NBA. I am not sure what the NHL looks like as far as streaks go, but if losing streaks of 8 or more are common to that sport then I would use the one unit progression as my primary system.

I say primary system because when your back is against the wall it is sometimes necassary to take a shot to keep you in the game. You often see this in the World Series of Poker. A player is down on his luck. He goes all in. Next thing you know he is the chip leader at the table. It sometimes takes a gutsy move like that.

For the NFL last year I used a 5 tier Standard Martingale. I would prefer to use a 7 tier system but 5 was all I could afford. Streaks of 8+ happen in the NFL but they are not common like they are in the MLB or NBA. I am far more comfortable with the higher risk. The NFL is the only sport I have really put a lot of effort into learning how to handicap. A funny thing happened. The more I learned the worse I got. It was so bad at one point that if you wanted to make a crapload of money all you had to do is fade my bets. lol

That is why I started putting a lot of thought into the Martingale System. I realized that for all my efforts I was not seeing the results the pros have. The corrective quality of the Martingale intrigues me and makes me believe it is possible to succeed while only picking 50% winners.

It is all about the streaks. If you can find a way to tame the losing streaks then the Martingale System is a money machine. The Pendulum Cycle Theory is the key to solving this problem.

Just to recap.

• MLB - one unit progression
• NBA - one unit progression
• NFL - 7 tier Standard Martingale

Be prepared to mix and match the other strategies depending on the situation. If you are winning a lot you may want to consider trying the Anti-Martingale. If you are losing you may consider switching from one unit to the standard progression, or take a shot (aka all in... ...you do not have to go all in to take a shot, but it implies a large high risk bet to get you back into the game.)

Thanks arp...I think you are right about the pendulum cycle...so do you think there is a way to kind of get an idea as a step by step process as to how to arrive at pendulum cycle plays for each sport? For instance, do you look for teams who have won 3+ in a row and ride them, and go against teams that have lost 3+ in a row? Something like that?

Thanks for your replies...I am very interested in applying your theory

[arpeggiomeister]

Thanks arp...I think you are right about the pendulum cycle...so do you think there is a way to kind of get an idea as a step by step process as to how to arrive at pendulum cycle plays for each sport? For instance, do you look for teams who have won 3+ in a row and ride them, and go against teams that have lost 3+ in a row? Something like that?

Thanks for your replies...I am very interested in applying your theory

That is why I am doing these experiments. I am trying to see if I can put this into action and make it work without risking real money to do it. It often takes a lot of failure before making an idea work. If those failures come at no cost than why not go for it?

[arpeggiomeister]

My skid continues. Account down to $2,005. Rather then risk total destruction at this point I am going to let it go and implement a completely different strategy I call the Hybrid Martingale. This strategy is very aggressive so if it works it will be quick. I will use the Standard Martingale to build $100. I will then switch to the Anti Martingale for two games to turn that into over $400... ...or less depending on the odds I bet. I will then start the process over and make adjustements so I can reach my goal of $525 profit.

I am sticking with the yankees.

OAK (Athletics) vs NYY NYY Runline -1.5 +130 risk $30 to win $39

[arpeggiomeister]

The skid continues and I continue to be stubborn Account now $1,975

Today's game:

OAK (Athletics) vs NYY NYY Runline -1.5 -110 $75 to win $68.18

[arpeggiomeister]

"Thanks arp...I think you are right about the pendulum cycle...so do you think there is a way to kind of get an idea as a step by step process as to how to arrive at pendulum cycle plays for each sport? For instance, do you look for teams who have won 3+ in a row and ride them, and go against teams that have lost 3+ in a row? Something like that?"

Thanks for your replies...I am very interested in applying your theory

Here is a more in depth answer to that question.

Chasing is all about streaks. There are 3 kinds of streaks. This will sound oversimplified, but it is the enigma that must be unlocked to make this whole thing work.

Tight formation: This is when a team, circumstance, or other condition is producing results with less then 3 winners or losers in a row. In this situation the Standard Martingale System works best. This is when public opinion is fairly balanced and people really have no idea which way the game will go.

Winning streak: This happens when a team is undervalued. There are many causes to create this kind of circumstance. With baseball I am shooting in the dark, but with football I have noticed some patterns. The Patriots are on of the elite teams in the NFL yet I have found the opening spreads to be soft on them year after year. I expect this year will be the same which is why I have my eye on the opener against the Titans. I am also interested to see what happens with the Packers and I think the Eagles will have a chip on their shoulder and want to prove they really are a dream team.

Losing Streaks: This occurs when a team becomes overvalued. This happens when the public has been leaning too heavily on a heavy favorite, which is exactly what happened to the 2007 Patriots. It also happens to underdogs that are so horrible that Vegas is too scared to pum the line any higher. The Rams are a good example. I am waiting for that team to come around but they have a lot of problems that need fixing. I doubt they will have them fixed by this season so I expect another bad year and high draft picks for them.

Predicting what is going to happen is the job of any good handicapper. I think we can go so in depth that we start to overthink the obvious. I am always hearing people analyzing coaching, weather, injuries, etc. which is all important, but I hardly ever hear people analyzing the driving factor of the spread - crowd psychology.

In the future I hope to have more specific and tangible handicapping methods, but on baseball I only have one tool - momentum.

I started out completely random. I chose the over on a game and it worked. I noticed that the majority of the games were going over at that time so I continued to ride the streak. I saw a very definate shift from overs to unders, but the unders are not dominating the boards like the overs were so I did not make the shift. I switched to runlines on favorites. That brought me some success so I rode that. I am now in the inevitable losing streak and trying to snap it.

The random approach is killing me at the moment so I decided to focus on the Yankees because they are at the top of the Power Rankings. I am still getting crushed at the moment, but I am going to stick this one out, at least for now.

My strategy has changed from a one unit progression to what I call the Hybrid System. Both systems have advantages and disadvantages.

The one unit progression gives me great depth but growing a profit is painstakingly slow. I have noticed that when you get too deep into the progression that it is often a slow death. I switched strategies because it was getting to that point. I am now 6 losses deep into the progression. I let go of my profits and started over at $2,005 using a more aggressive strategy. By doing this at 6 levels in I will be able to go another 5 levels with a Standard MArtingale, and a partial 6th level. The total with out the partial is 11 levels. That is very deep.

The Hybrid System is exactly what it sounds like. I fused different chase systems together to maximize both profit and sustainability. It is a Standard Martingale and an Anti Martingale. I will build $100 with the Martingale and switch to the Anti-Martingale for 2 games. If either game fails I must start over. If both games win I will either have my 26% or be very close depending on the risk to reward differential. (if I am using +odds like with the runlines then +125 will have me within $20. I can use a standard chase to finish it off) The advantage of this system is it can build profits very quickly. The disadvantage is it depends on a 2 game win streak at the end of the progression... ...guess wrong and you are back to the beginning.

Without handicapping I have basically chosen to focus on runlines and heavy favorites to do the trick. If this were real money I would not take it so lightly. The key to chasing in any sport is to first identify a streak you want to ride. Then you must try and figure out why that streak is occuring. The 2007 Patriots had a greatly improved offense. The addition of Randy Moss gave Tom Brady a deep threat for the first time. Patriot opponents had never faced this before and it took them 10 games to figure out how to play this team. Once the Eagles gave them a run for their money than the other teams started to follow suit.

The 2011 Lions were unexpected. Matt Stafford was healthy and turned out to be a formidable QB. Combined with a star receiver and vastly improved defense the Lions were a much better team then people were expecting. A similar situation was true with the 49ers.

I am expecting the Patriots to be a similar story this year. People remember their second rate defense of last year. They remember the team losing the Superbowl to the Giants... ...again!! The team had a good draft and the defense should be much better this year, but for some odd reason this will most likely catch people by surprise.

I have just listed reasons for streaks including one projection. This is what I do not have with baseball. I do not know why the Oakland Athletics seem to have the Yankees number but they have 3 games one them. I am being stubborn and taking the Yankees again. My logic is simply that there is a good reason why the Yankees are ranked #1 in the power rankings. If I were to dig deeper perhaps I would find some answers. I have not looked at any injury reports, weather conditions, pitching staff, etc. These things might hold the answer.

The biggest problem with the random approach is that it offers no understanding of why things are happening. When you focus on one team you get to know it very well. If you can follow all of the teams that would be best but is too much of an undertaking for anyone who has limited time to dedicate to such a venture. Pick a team or a a few to follow and really get to know them. Are the winning or losing, and why.

Summary:

No matter what sport you are looking at you want to find a streak and ride it.

- tight formation - use a standard martingale
-winning streak - hybrid system if you are aggressive, one unit progression if you fear a turnaround
- losing streak - same as a winning streak, just fade the losing team.

Finding a streak is only half the battle. For long term success you must understand why it is occuring. Without that knowledge it would be difficult to duplicate your results in the future.

[arpeggiomeister]

Yankees get swept. Account $1,900

Today's game:

SEA (Mariners) vs NYY NYY Runline -1.5 -105 $150 to win $142.85

[arpeggiomeister]

Finally snapped losing streak.

SEA1 - NYY4 Account now $2,042.85

Today's bet:
SEA (Mariners) vs NYY (Yankees) NYY Moneyline +100 risk $30 to win $30

[arpeggiomeister]

Yankees lose account now $2,012.85

Today's game

OAK (Athletics) vs TOR (Bluejays) OAK Moneyline +115 $60 to win $69