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who cares...we ****** up
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After going 0-2 today I went ahead and averaged out my labby line and am doing a 4 strike with Texas. Has -240 juice now at 5 dimes and even the RL is -115. Should be an easy win for Texas. The 4 strike would be the same thing as you all playing two strike twice with Texas on the filtered and unfiltered, but because I assume COL will already lose to SF, then I will still be up 1/2 a unit once Texas wins.
Its a little more agressive then On3 does it, but should put me up 1/2 a unit. Also seeing how last years thread the biggest wager was only 5 units, I feel pretty confident doing a 4 strike once in a great while. The juice sucks tremendously, but if it gives me an easy win then ill take it.
Good Luck
GOOO TEXAS!!!
Hoping for a 1-2 day for +.5uComment -
Anyone take Texas -1 at (-180)? I already took them ML, but debating for future reference if we should lower the juice with some of these teams by taking the -1 and just taking more pushes. I am not sure how much that will effect our labby line(s).Comment -
To all those questioning/debating changing their bets, using run lines, etc., relax. It's one loss. This system is about the long term. The only way you lose any given series is if the home team gets swept. As long as you're betting to win (versus risk) and adding the proper numbers (amount of wager) to you labby lines you will recover your loss on the next win. On3 is using the money line vs. the run line for high juice series for the first couple of weeks to let teams settle in; at that point run lines for high juice will come into effect as stated in an earlier post.
If a home team does get swept (series loss), over the course of the season there's many more wins than losses. See first post and links. If consecutive losses consume too much of your initial bankroll, your units are too high. Better off starting small. Clear lines a set number of times then maybe consider raising unit price. It's a long season folks.
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Darvish looks horrible tonight. Hopefully the Rangers can get the bats going.Comment -
Its a marathon not a sprint. Tonight has been pretty dire, but its the whole season that matters. Dreadful start for texas tonight though....Comment -
Kickass. Great 1st. C'mon Rangers.Comment -
oh man, a losing day in a chase system. everyone jump ship, quick!
just kidding. i hope you guys dont get too scared over one bad day. trust the system, over the season you will win a lot of money.
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Brutal day so far.
Hopefully the Texas offense puts up a huge number.Comment -
ya only the 2nd inning lol
a 4 strike is when you bet to cross off 4 #s instead of 2.
2 strike cross two add one if you lose
3 strike cross 3 if you win add 1 if you lose
4 strike cross 4 if you win add 1 if you lose.
Need a higher bankroll for a 4 strike approach. I use a variation of the 2-4 strike depending on how strong the bet is. Texas is a very strong bet I felt, so i stepped it up a little. Hoping for a nice come back.
Good luck rest of the 7 innings.Comment -
Is tomorrow some kind of crazy holiday or something? Looking at the early line/pitchers for game 2 of the COL and PHI series (since we lost games 1) and can't find them, not even mlb schedule. Come to find out, both are off tomorrow and resume their respective series on Wednesday. 3 game series, not even a week into the season, and they split both series with a day off? What kind of sh*t is that? No wonder baseball last 'til Thanksgiving. Just sayin'.
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I wasn't about to abandon ship over one bad day, lol.Comment -
+.5 units
Any plays for tomorrow?Comment -
Nope. Post #224, PHI and COL series resume Wednesday.
Edit: My bad, Dodger series starting Tuesday.
to The HOFF and airattackers.
Last edited by swordsandtequila; 04-10-12, 07:17 AM.Comment -
This system lasts for the whole season. Just be patient.Last edited by eric14tsui; 04-09-12, 10:49 PM.Comment -
on3,
When you write our your labby lines for today, can you do a step by step break down of the numbers? I'm still a bit confused and I'm sure there are others out there who are confused as well.
Thanks.Comment -
Labby is pretty simple. If you win cross off two #s out of the 4. If you lose add the amount you risked to the end of the line.
If you had say -150 odds for both losses you would take your
labby line 10 - 10 - 10 - 10 and add
10 - 10 - 10 - 10 -(30) - (30) to the line.
Lost two bets, so add two #s to the line. Then add the entire line together totally $100 and divide it by 6 #s!
Your new line becomes
16.67 - 16.67 - 16.67 - 16.67 - 16.67 - 16.67
Your next bet will be to cross off two #s.
He is running multiple lines, so I am not sure if he runs 1 line for A, 1 line for B, and one line for C.
You can run it however you want really along as you add your loss as a new # to the line and when you win cross off two #s you were betting.
Hope this helps
JMDComment -
dont forget about dodgers and pirates...dodgers -240 game 1 4-10-12Comment -
Philadelphia (B) and Colorado (B) aren't being played until tomorrow the 11th.
List for A games:
APRIL 10
Tigers vs Rays
Dodgers vs Pirates
Padres vs D-Backs
Only game that fits is the Dodgers -225.Comment -
Hoff, your post is a little confusing. you listed the start of 3 series today but the only one that qualifies is the dodgers one right? Because they opened over -145.Comment -
Can someone confirm the plays for today please? I would do it myself but I haven't actually seen the post that fully explains the system as it doesn't seem to be in post #1.
Edit: OK, if this system is covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101020098 then what Hoff and alxs were saying makes sense. I think Hoff was saying that those were the potential plays for today but that only the Dodgers play fits. I have no idea whether this fits the filtered version or not, however.Last edited by CrazyCarl; 04-10-12, 11:22 AM.Comment -
One more time, here's the criteria in a nutshell:
Regular play - Home team, start of new series (at least 3 games), 1st game -145 or higher, chase on losses only
Filtered play - Same as regular, with the added criteria of total runs o/u 9 (this filter has been shown to win at a higher percentage, but less plays qualify)
By default any filtered play will also be a regular play; your choice if you want to play both. Once we're a few weeks into the season, qualifying plays with juice at -190 (approximate) or higher will be played with the run line instead of the money line. On3 will state this in his posts.
It's all been posted before, hope this clears it up for everyone. Now get back to work!
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Thanks for the info, guys
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I'm not an expert on system bets and this is my first year tailing this system but learning from a few other chase systems I just have to say be careful with your bet units and make sure you practice money management. You should expect to be down units during the first few weeks as we hit a few losses, I think its especially true here with the favs we are betting on, some of the chases will add up to quite a big number if you are betting too high of an amount. You can be -4 units and then have it ballon to +5 in one day (and vice versa) so make sure you can handle that pressure, judging from the thread last year we will likely be grinding it out for a bit so dont sweat the losses too much right now.
If you are unfamiliar with the labby needed here then go to post 3 and go look at last year's series, take the first 10-15 series and see if you understand what the poster there is doing, everything is listed in the thread. Just follow the examples there and see if you can get the same result.Comment -
so what are the official plays and labby lines for today?Comment -
1-2 on the day. I took the $32.60 lost on COL and the $30 lost on PHI and added them to our lines. I also crossed off the $20 we won we TEX.
System record 5-0-0; 2-0-0
Units +2.25
1 unit = $20
4/10
#5 -- miami @ PHI PENDING (B)
#6 -- san fran @ COL PENDING (B) -- o/u 9.5
#8 -- pitt @ LAD -215 (A) -- o/u 6.5
Game 1 win = 5-2
Game 2 win = 0-0
Game 3 win = 0-0
Labby Line (regular)
x-10-10-31.30
10-10-10-41.30
10-10-10-10
Labby Line (filter)
x-10-10-32.60 (new)
LAD to win 41.30Last edited by on3; 04-10-12, 05:19 PM.Comment -
so you took the total loss ($62.60) and put half on the top line and half on the 2nd line right?
The top line originally read: 10-10-10-10. After the 2 losses, you put half of the loss to the end which made it 10-10-10-10-31.30. Because we won with Texas, you crossed off two 10s which now means we have a line of 10-10-31.30. We bet the first and last numbers so we're betting to win $41.30.
Am I correct?Comment -
I am on the LAD too.BOL GuysComment
Why play a system if you're going to eliminate plays based on quirks? I played Colorado as well despite SF burning me last season. What happens last year means little to plays this season.
