on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[oklahoma]

That 30cent line movement gave me some false hope. I guess a lot of other people figured they wouldnt get swept either. Hope theres some plays tomorrow.

[Nino7]

im droping the system integrity and focus on this one...lost 20% of my bankroll in 1 week

[thelimit0310]

On3 I'm happy you are deciding to track my method as well! I have a suggestion for the 5/2 method you may want to consider, as I am thinking about tweaking the method with this rule as well though I still need to go back and see its worth.

In my method post, I note this for the 5/2 method: "
There is a 37.5% chance per season you will hit a loss that is over -30 units. But never in my backtests did a loss go over -40 and there was never more than 1 loss that cost that high."

Now, I believe the only reason a loss would get that high is if one of the lines was at least over -200. I'll have to go back and check, but if these large losses are coming from jacked up B lines, it may be best to set a rule where if the team is favorited by -230 (or whatever it ends up being) or more on the B bet to go back to using the 4/2 for that series. I will have to check to see if losing that extra 1 unit on the wins will outweigh suffering a potentially large loss. But if everything checks out there it may be worth considering as an official rule for the 5/2.

I will let you know how it goes and thanks again!

[moshi]

Get 'em next time boys!

[SlickRick1382]

hey JMD, do you also play cisco?

huge OAK win 2 nights ago on the (D) play and a solid TEX win on (B). system is rolling along nicely and is a good supplement.

What is cisco if you don't mind my asking ...

[SlickRick1382]

That 30cent line movement gave me some false hope. I guess a lot of other people figured they wouldnt get swept either. Hope theres some plays tomorrow.

To get swept by the Mariners of all teams is just tough ....

[jturn49]

Wonder when was the last time Seattle scored that many runs in a series. oh well, nice streak we were on. Start a new one tomorrow.

[darkmatter117]

What is cisco if you don't mind my asking ...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1121015-3-sucessful-systems-cisco.html

I think he's probably referring to his 5-Run Chase system, though. Here's the Google doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...der=true&gid=0

And if you're interested in that and on Twitter, you can follow @5runMLBchase.

[SlickRick1382]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...ems-cisco.html

I think he's probably referring to his 5-Run Chase system, though. Here's the Google doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...der=true&gid=0

And if you're interested in that and on Twitter, you can follow @5runMLBchase.

Thanks a bunch bro.

Appreciate the info

[chound]

There's actually 4 systems on cisco's thread at cappersmall.

[on3]

On3 I'm happy you are deciding to track my method as well! I have a suggestion for the 5/2 method you may want to consider, as I am thinking about tweaking the method with this rule as well though I still need to go back and see its worth.

In my method post, I note this for the 5/2 method: "
There is a 37.5% chance per season you will hit a loss that is over -30 units. But never in my backtests did a loss go over -40 and there was never more than 1 loss that cost that high."

Now, I believe the only reason a loss would get that high is if one of the lines was at least over -200. I'll have to go back and check, but if these large losses are coming from jacked up B lines, it may be best to set a rule where if the team is favorited by -230 (or whatever it ends up being) or more on the B bet to go back to using the 4/2 for that series. I will have to check to see if losing that extra 1 unit on the wins will outweigh suffering a potentially large loss. But if everything checks out there it may be worth considering as an official rule for the 5/2.

I will let you know how it goes and thanks again!

the 5/2 method wont be labby lines. so no B and C lines. assuming $20/unit, the first bet is $100, and then the second bet is off that.

EDIT:

sorry, misread your post. having a huge favorite might be a good filter, let me know what you find.

[KennyM10]

God this thread blows chunks, I lost all my money doubling up on Detroit three times in a row what a bunch of jagoffs, going to reload this system sucks.

[The HOFF]

APRIL 27
Orioles vs Athletics
Yankees vs Tigers
Blue Jays vs Mariners
Indians vs Angels
Twins vs Royals
Rangers vs Rays
Braves vs Pirates
Marlins vs D-Backs
Phillies vs Cubs
Reds vs Astros
Cardinals vs Brewers
Rockies vs Mets
Dodgers vs Nationals
Giants vs Padres

[thelimit0310]

God this thread blows chunks, I lost all my money doubling up on Detroit three times in a row what a bunch of jagoffs, going to reload this system sucks.

I think I remember you, weren't you in the JM NBA thread complaining about how much the systems in there suck too? I'm starting to think you just have no idea what your doing.

[moshi]

God this thread blows chunks, I lost all my money doubling up on Detroit three times in a row what a bunch of jagoffs, going to reload this system sucks.

LOL! You're not supposed to go all in noob!

[dlunc3]

God this thread blows chunks, I lost all my money doubling up on Detroit three times in a row what a bunch of jagoffs, going to reload this system sucks.

wow... this guy visited my thread a few days ago out of nowhere with this same stuff... i then saw he was in wallcos thread not long ago too... must need some extra love from his mommy.. apparently doesnt get enough

[KennyM10]

LOL! You're not supposed to go all in noob!

To late now I lost every cent in my account following this clown

[dlunc3]

I think I remember you, weren't you in the JM NBA thread complaining about how much the systems in there suck too? I'm starting to think you just have no idea what your doing.

What gave you that idea? the fact that he flushed his whole bankroll on one series?

[KennyM10]

Someone told me just to fade some loser named samsincharge, will have to find this stroke.

[KennyM10]

Well its still April and all I know is I am reloading again!

[thelimit0310]

Well its still April and all I know is I am reloading again!

Heres some genuine advice for you, play this system using my 4/2 method i posted a few pages back, use .75% of your bankroll as your unit size.

[KennyM10]

Heres some genuine advice for you, play this system using my 4/2 method i posted a few pages back, use .75% of your bankroll as your unit size.

Have to reload first tomorrow. Could you give me post number thanks have to leave now thanks.

[darkmatter117]

Have to reload first tomorrow. Could you give me post number thanks have to leave now thanks.

Post 790.

[KennyM10]

Thanks

[tb1984]

God this thread blows chunks, I lost all my money doubling up on Detroit three times in a row what a bunch of jagoffs, going to reload this system sucks.

Not you again!!! Just ignore this troll. He's air-betting.

[1gamer]

What really sucks is we missed Verlander in the rotation...

[TripleDDD]

Thelimit, do you recommend running your method with on3's Labby? I'm also following a RPI system on covers too if that matters.

[dlunc3]

seeing a lot of games tomorrow... good opportunity to get our money back

philly -260
cincy -145 (on the fence)
atl -185
col -160
lad -200
tor -200

looking forward to on3s post..

ill take a sweep please

[oklahoma]

Always feels better to have plays the next day after a loss. Rockies only team over 9.

[thelimit0310]

Thelimit, do you recommend running your method with on3's Labby? I'm also following a RPI system on covers too if that matters.

Labbying as well as playing 4/2 is listed in my method post as "Labby+". It is definitely viable but I wouldn't play it while your using other systems. As I said in my method post if the lines get bad your looking at a lot of money in play.

[J.M. Disciple]

seeing a lot of games tomorrow... good opportunity to get our money back

philly -260
cincy -145 (on the fence)
atl -185
col -160
lad -200
tor -200

looking forward to on3s post..

ill take a sweep please

so phi -1.5 , TOR -1.5, and lad -1.5 since there all over -190, but thats up to on3 and his judgement.

I am trying to figure out how I want to play this... I only have 5 #s on my line. Might have to make an extra line and average the two lines out...



Edit...

Ok I think i got it figured out since I am going to be dropping system integrity anyways, I took the 6 #s I had on that labby line and added it to this system giving myself 11#s. I took those 11#s and averaged them all out creating 3 seperate labby lines. A = 4#s B = 4#s and C = 3 #s.

Since Cinci was the smallest favorite of the day I will be betting 1# on that and 2 #s on each of the other games. My biggest Risk out of all these games was 4 units. I played 3 games that were above -190 at the -1.5 RL and other games ML.

I am debating a small parlay with all 6 games as well....

I given up on looking up my own stats... Going to keep sports betting as simple as possible and as time efficient as possible. Just play the system as it is and dont try to make bigger wagers or clear your lines faster with your own plays.


Good Luck!!

PS PARlay odds with all 6 teams on the ML are: 11.68 : 1 or bet $1 to win $11.68


Anyone down???

[on3]

System record 23-1-0; 6-0-0
Units +9.5
1 unit = $20

4/27

#25 -- chicago @ PHI -260/-120 (A) -- o/u 7 -- play RL
#26 -- pittsburgh @ ATL -185 (A) -- o/u 7
#27 -- ny mets @ COL -164 (A) -- o/u 9.5 -- eligible for 5/2 if (A) loses
#28 -- washington @ LAD -205/+115 (A) -- o/u 6 -- play RL
#29 -- seattle @ TOR -208/+100 (A) -- o/u 8 -- play RL
#30 -- houston @ CIN -147 (A) -- o/u 8

Game 1 win = 13-11; 4-2
Game 2 win = 8-3; 2-0
Game 3 win = 2-1; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

15-22-21-77
x-10-10-76
10-10-10-83

reshuffle

40-37-41-37
x-45-x-41
10-30-30-33

Labby Line (filter)

x-10-15-x

PHI to win 40
ATL to win 37
COL to win 41
LAD bet 37
TOR to win 41
CIN to win 45

COL to win 25 -- filtered

[TripleDDD]

JMD thanks man. Im going to be playing -1 for anything -180 and up

[Taro Punk]

no more chasing DET? lol

[sstrunks52005]

the amount it tells you to bet says risk?
is it wager amount
to win amount
risk amount

you'd think the obvious answer is risk amount but the numbers looks like it comes out weird. Also, the calculator makes you win more then the amount you say.


NEVERMIND i mixed up the ml and rl amounts