on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[thelimit0310]

dlunc

Thanks for checking into that. Still, I believe a backtest of any system should include closing lines so it can be recorded accurately. While followers of On3 wouldn't have taken the loss, who knows what therizz did in his thread or any other forum leader running this system now or in the future. In my opinion it should be known that officially that loss happened.

[dlunc3]

dlunc

Thanks for checking into that. Still, I believe a backtest of any system should include closing lines so it can be recorded accurately. While followers of On3 wouldn't have taken the loss, who knows what therizz did in his thread or any other forum leader running this system now or in the future. In my opinion it should be known that officially that loss happened.

Yea I agree... I think it all depends if you backtrack it using the opening number, or the closing number... but yea, consistency is key either way

[eric14tsui]

WTF. Jays have to be better, man.

[PolishSensation]

This could get ugly, especially if Mariners lose tonight.

[J.M. Disciple]

Sea's line is in the positive now not looking good.... Seeing how the line was -104 now +100 and majority of public is on Sea.... Books seem to be dragging people in.

either way i think sea is still a good play. Oak has sucked for years.

[J.M. Disciple]

Anyone on Sf or LAd today?

[knugen]

Atleast two c bets tomorrow, love that action

[oklahoma]

Atleast two c bets tomorrow, love that action

Might as well get some of the C bets outta the way the first week. Heaps upon heaps of series to make it back

[BSUWADDY]

Not to make a crappy (so far) day worse, but just saw this nugget: LHP Cole Hamels (0-1) goes for the Phillies against RHP Mike Pelfrey in the series finale Sunday. Hamels is 3-10 with a 4.46 ERA in 17 career starts vs. the Mets. Pelfrey is 7-7 with a 5.37 ERA in 19 starts against the Phillies.

Tomorrow should be interesting.......c'mon Mariners!

Love the action, but love the W's more!

[dlunc3]

Not to make a crappy (so far) day worse, but just saw this nugget: LHP Cole Hamels (0-1) goes for the Phillies against RHP Mike Pelfrey in the series finale Sunday. Hamels is 3-10 with a 4.46 ERA in 17 career starts vs. the Mets. Pelfrey is 7-7 with a 5.37 ERA in 19 starts against the Phillies.

Tomorrow should be interesting.......c'mon Mariners!

Love the action, but love the W's more!

Hamels is 100x the pitcher phelfry is... those stats are garbage... cliff lee had only given up 1 run through 21 innings vs the mets going into last night and we saw how that went.

Hamels comes out tomorrow and at worst gives up one run....mark that down. Phills are gonna rough up pelfrey and his garbage pitching

[WVU9494]

Yep, hate those games where the public is all over it

Sea's line is in the positive now not looking good.... Seeing how the line was -104 now +100 and majority of public is on Sea.... Books seem to be dragging people in.

either way i think sea is still a good play. Oak has sucked for years.

[J.M. Disciple]

Anyone have a full break down of ABC over the past 5 years? I know Rizzo from 2009 numbers were way different then in terms of winning % compared to last season. Trying to figure out if there is much of a difference in strength between A-B-C. I know it does not really matter too much with the labby, but similar to the filter maybe we can play C for an extra unit if it hits at a really high rate. Just food for thought.

On a side note. LAD are spanking that A$$!!!!! Feel like we should just labby LAD and Texas all year

Final bet on Sea looking ok if they keep up there defense against A's horrible offense.

[darkmatter117]

Anyone have a full break down of ABC over the past 5 years? I know Rizzo from 2009 numbers were way different then in terms of winning % compared to last season. Trying to figure out if there is much of a difference in strength between A-B-C. I know it does not really matter too much with the labby, but similar to the filter maybe we can play C for an extra unit if it hits at a really high rate. Just food for thought.

On a side note. LAD are spanking that A$$!!!!! Feel like we should just labby LAD and Texas all year

Final bet on Sea looking ok if they keep up there defense against A's horrible offense.

That's what I was trying to figure out yesterday. It doesn't look like therizz went back beyond 2007 (which makes me nervous). Here were his numbers:

2008 (258-10)
Game 1 (A): 175-93 (65.30%)
Game 2 (B): 60-33 (64.52%)
Game 3 (C): 23-10 (69.69%)

2007 (252-13)
Game 1 (A): 172-93 (64.91%)
Game 2 (B): 58-35 (62.37%)
Game 3 (C): 22-13 (62.86%)

I believe that was playing ML only (no RLs, no matter the line). I'm in the process of running the 2006 numbers. I've seen several different money-management systems thrown around for similar NBA systems, and I'm testing them out right now for MLB, but I don't think it will work as well because of the juice. The losses might just be too big and unpredictable. This system -- and many of these ideas -- are new to me, but I'll be sure to post any encouraging findings I come across.

[johncrud]

do backtrack on filtered plays too... are they any better in the previous seaosn?

[J.M. Disciple]

When the thread is losing everyone has some thing to say, but when we win wheres all of On3s Fans? Even though im a noob, after figuring out some of the stats for baseball, it got quite easy to predict baseball at least today. I was only taking the clear favorites, so im no Houdini, but my picks were pretty correct for the ones i listed.

#1) STL strongest play Won 5-1
#2) Sea won 4-0 *you all said Sea is never a strong play*
#3) TOr Lost in the 9th inning *i said was "ok"
#4) Phi Lost 5-0 *I said they might lose again but i was going to follow the system some what blindly.

Then my side plays I took SF and LAD both at -1 for ++++ odds SF came through bottom of 9th to win by 1 for a push and LAD just smashed.

So even though I am a noob i do a decent job of analyzing stats, so be careful when you antagonize my rankings of plays.


Today we have two C bets.

TOr im ranking as top play
Phi ranking as 2nd top play.

Both are early games around 1pm et so get your bets in. Even though Philly has higher juice on their game, Toronto still has a bigger edge over their opponent. They have a better starter tomorrow by a wide range and offense and defense match up pretty close.

Phi has a better starter for sure, but there offense stinks, so not sure how long there defense can hold off the other teams offense.

*I am risking to win the same amount on both games though because my line(s) are averaged out.



Phi (C)
TOR (C)


GOod LUCK
JMD

PS
TEx
LAD
both really good bets tomorrow. I thought boston was a good bet as well, but some reason they are listed as underdog tomorrow.

[darkmatter117]

I just finished the 2006 AL numbers (111-2 unfiltered). I'll post the combined totals when I complete NL. Two things worth mentioning. First, both AL series losses came on filtered plays. Otherwise, C bets did really well (11-2 unfiltered, 9-2 filtered).

Second, I've been playing with the idea of betting on the R/L for B and C bets. I'm not sure what the typical R/L odds would be for a B game, but as you can see by looking at Toronto and Philly today, you can get C bets at + odds on the R/L (+120 for Toronto and +115 for Philly on 5Dimes). Compare that to the ML: -161 Toronto and -189 Philly! So here's the interesting part: Based on 2006 AL numbers, unfiltered plays where you take the R/L on B and C bets went 108-5. If you bet the R/L for B bets and the ML for C bets, you'd erase those three additional series losses (all three were one-run wins). It's something I'm going to continue to investigate. Depending on how you run your labby lines, if you compare a -175 ML throughout a series to a +100 R/L, you could save about four units per series loss doing R/L for Bs and Cs. Even betting the R/L for B bets only (returning to the ML for C bets) would save about two units per series loss -- and you would have the same number of losses!

Of course, this is just the data from one-half of one season, but I find it interesting nonetheless.

[on3]

System record 13-0-0; 4-0-0
Units +5
1 unit = $20

4/15

#11 -- ny mets @ PHI -189 (C)
#13 -- balt @ TOR -160 (C)

Game 1 win = 9-6; 3-1
Game 2 win = 4-2; 1-0
Game 3 win = 0-0; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

21-22-22-22
x-x-34-36
10-10-44-46

Labby Line (filter)

x-10-10-x

PHI to win 56
TOR to win 54

[Alki]

System record 13-0-0; 4-0-0
Units +5
1 unit = $20

4/15

#11 -- ny mets @ PHI -189 (C)
#13 -- balt @ TOR -160 (C)

Game 1 win = 9-6; 3-1
Game 2 win = 4-2; 1-0
Game 3 win = 0-0; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

21-22-22-22
x-x-34-36
10-10-44-46

Labby Line (filter)

x-10-10-x

PHI to win 56
TOR to win 54

Your thread has gotten very crowded this season compared to last year. Sometimes gets difficult to sort through everything to find the info.
Thank you so much for keeping this simple.

[BSUWADDY]

When we lose, yeah I bitch a little--a little, but never about they system. Just nervous about Philly's matchup and lack of runs. But win or lose, I give On3 his points--and appreciate the knowledge in this thread and all of the backtesting/discussion. Let's RO today! (that's ROLL but with no L's--hopefully only W's today)

[DustyDiamond]

on3 is the 4-0-0 record the filtered record?? I only remember two filtered plays so far?

[swordsandtequila]

on3 is the 4-0-0 record the filtered record?? I only remember two filtered plays so far?

4-0 is correct.

4/6 Texas (A)
4/9 Texas (A)
4/10 Colorado (B) (A game was 4/9, loss)
4/13 Yankees

[njb5572]

darkmatter, very interested in your findings!

[sstrunks52005]

so even if these 2 C bets cover today, we still take a smaller loss?
Because yesterday we risked 69.75 and 66.78

[WVU9494]

Toronto is filtered, isn't it?

[swordsandtequila]

Toronto is filtered, isn't it?

From link in post #3:

Here is the plan: Play on teams that open at -145 or higher in the first game of a three or more game homestand. Chase for 3 games only Run this on an aggressive 3 line labouchere (will post lines) If you wish to minimize/optimize plays, play on home teams only that have a over/under set for game 1 of the series at or higher than 9 (89-2 last year)

Last line of quote refers to filtered plays. Criteria used to determine whether a series is a play or not is based on game 1 only.

[Gndias]

good luck today guys....we really need it

[SlickRick1382]

When the thread is losing everyone has some thing to say, but when we win wheres all of On3s Fans? Even though im a noob, after figuring out some of the stats for baseball, it got quite easy to predict baseball at least today. I was only taking the clear favorites, so im no Houdini, but my picks were pretty correct for the ones i listed.

#1) STL strongest play Won 5-1
#2) Sea won 4-0 *you all said Sea is never a strong play*
#3) TOr Lost in the 9th inning *i said was "ok"
#4) Phi Lost 5-0 *I said they might lose again but i was going to follow the system some what blindly.

Then my side plays I took SF and LAD both at -1 for ++++ odds SF came through bottom of 9th to win by 1 for a push and LAD just smashed.

So even though I am a noob i do a decent job of analyzing stats, so be careful when you antagonize my rankings of plays.

Even a broken clock is right at least two times a day. Seattle was not the 2nd strongest play on the board.

[knugen]

good luck today guys....we really need it

common man, it sounds like we are halfway into the season and already have tons of losses, even if we lose both C bets tonight, we like 150 games to win that money back...

[Gndias]

i was just wishing good luck....nobody likes loosing money

[Nino7]

any link for the games?

[swordsandtequila]

any link for the games?

http://www.firstrowsports.eu/sport/baseball.html

http://www.vipbox.tv/sports/baseball.html

[Gndias]

toronto killing it

[dlunc3]

as of right now, philly has stranded bases loaded first inning, stranded 2nd and 3rd second inning, stranded 1st and 2nd third inning, and stranded 1st and 2nd forth inning...

wtf is going on

[SlickRick1382]

Blue Jays finally busted this thing open in the 7th with 6 runs.

Hopefully Phillies come thru and get us another W.

[SlickRick1382]

as of right now, philly has stranded bases loaded first inning, stranded 2nd and 3rd second inning, stranded 1st and 2nd third inning, and stranded 1st and 2nd forth inning...

wtf is going on

Only a matter of time before they bust through ...