Mlb props

[calmeat]

Hello all,
Since most of the threads i follow have died out figured i would keep it going. Here i will post my picks for a variety of plays, some are set up as chase series some are not. I along with some awesome people on here have come up with a variety of systems for making these picks.

Welcome and BOL to everyone!

[calmeat]

7/24/11
No Score 1st inning (64w-33L) 65.98%
Yes Series Chase (22w-6L)
Score First (17-9)
ML Series Chase (4-0)

ML Series Chase
Gm1 NYY
Gm1 BOS
Gm1 STL

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm1 SEA/NYY
Gm1 KC/BOS

No Score 1st Inning
NP

Score First
BOS
STL

Leans
Yes Score
PIT/ATL

No Score
SD/PHI
CIN/NYM

Score First
PHI

[unclebuzz1]

Hey, calmeat ... BOL

[sos41]

Cal please explain the series chase wager

[calmeat]

Cal please explain the series chase wager

Sure basically you would need to figure out how much overall you want to bet if the game comes down to game 3. For me the way i would normally do it is.
GM1 .5 of a unit
GM2 1 unit (bet to recoup .5 plus .5 profit)
Gm3 2 units (bet to recoup 1.5 plus .5 profit)

Basically if game one losses you, game 2 you want to bet to at least recoup your losses but usually you will want a profit as well. The starting unit size is up to you since everyone's bank roll is totally different. I usually play 5% of BR as a unit. Hope it helps

Also how much you want to profit is also up to you. However the more you want to profit your potential loss on game 3 could be high so again all up to each person.

[calmeat]

7/26/11
No Score 1st inning (64w-33L) 65.98%
Yes Series Chase (23w-6L) 1 open
Score First (18-10)
ML Series Chase (6-0) 1 open

ML Series Chase
Gm2 BOS - 1x
Gm1 MIL - .5x


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm2 KC/BOS - 1x


No Score 1st Inning
LAA/CLE - 2x
COL/LAD - 2x

Score First
STL 1x (chasing from yesterday)

Leans
Yes Score
HOU/STL

No Score
SFG/PHI
TB/OAK
FLA/WAS
BAL/TOR

Score First
NYY
DET
LAD

[calmeat]

Really good night last night hope today goes the same way

[BBQ Man]

Thanks for the 2 NO 1st inn. Keep up thegood work.

[calmeat]

6-0 last night and leans were 5-2 that was best day so far cant promise the same today but hope its nearly as good
7/27/11
No Score 1st inning (66w-33L) 66.67%
Yes Series Chase (24w-6L)
Score First (18-10)
ML Series Chase (8-0)

ML Series Chase
NP


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
NP


No Score 1st Inning
ARI/SD - 2x

Score First
Tex - .5x

Leans
Yes Score
FLA/WAS
SEA/NYY

No Score
SFG/PHI
TB/OAK
LAA/CLE

Score First
DET
SEA
WAS
KC

[xjumpintwit]

wha do u mean by ur leans bets ????

[calmeat]

They are ones that my system doesnt pick but looking at stats they are the ones that i like or that are close to being a system pick

[Anthony212]

nice call on NO ARI/SD

[calmeat]

Thanks Not many plays today, I will def be playing the NYM/CIN No score 1st, along with the other system picks, eventhough its not a system pick the numbers are real good.

7/28/11
No Score 1st inning (67w-33L) 67.00%
Yes Series Chase (24w-6L) 79%
Score First (18-11) 62%
ML Series Chase (8-0) 100%

ML Series Chase
NP


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
NP


No Score 1st Inning
NP

Score First
BOS - 1.5x
MIL - .5x

Leans
Yes Score
CHC/MIL


No Score
NYM/CIN - Strong Lean
FLA/WAS
HOU/STL

Score First
SFG
TOR
STL

[Anthony212]

did and cashed boston score 1st and boston/kc no score

[calmeat]

Nice Yeah i did the same with the bost no score as well. not a bad day so far. Now gotta figure out if i wann play the HOU/STL lean and also PIT/ATL no scores. decisions decisions

[xjumpintwit]

how do u come up with this system?

[calmeat]

worked with another guy on here (banmanJ) and come up with the relevant stats and theories and now been playing it most of the season. It's mainly all based on stats. Of course some days stats go out the window like on the NYM/CIN game but that was just my gut feeling and not a system pick.

[TEXAS MICKEY]

Cal,

Going to tail here a few days and see how this works out.

Good Luck My Friend.

TM

[calmeat]

Hey Tex hopefully we can win some good loot together. If you have any questions on what im doing just let me know ill be happy to answer

[calmeat]

7/29/11
No Score 1st inning (67w-33L) 67.00%
Yes Series Chase (24w-6L) 79%
Score First (19-12) 61%
ML Series Chase (8-0) 100% (started july 22)

ML Series Chase
Gm1 NYY - .5x
Gm1 PHI - .5x
Gm1 MIL - .5x


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm1 BAL/NYY - .5x
Gm1 TEX/TOR - .5x
Gm1 FLA/ATL - .5x
Gm1 BOS/CWS - .5x
Gm1 HOU/MIL - .5x



No Score 1st Inning
ARI/LAD - 2x

Score First
NP

Leans
Yes Score
TB/SEA


No Score
MIN/OAK

Score First
DET
SFG

[calmeat]

Also i will be away this weekend, so if i dont have time to post you just need to keep with the chases (ML and Yes score).
Early Looks for weekend, These would be the plays if stats stayed the same.
Sat
Play game 2 of chases if game 1 lost
TB/SEA -1x No Score 1st inning
NYY Score First

Sun
Play game 3 chases if games 1 and 2 lost
LAA/DET - 2x No score 1st inning

Again I will try to update but not sure how much time i will have to do so. Thanks and BOL

[calmeat]

7/30/11
No Score 1st inning (68w-33L) 67.33%
Yes Series Chase (24w-6L) 79%
Score First (19-12) 61%
ML Series Chase (10-0) 100% (started july 22)

ML Series Chase
Gm2 NYY - 1x


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm2 BAL/NYY - 1x
Gm2 TEX/TOR - 1x
Gm2 FLA/ATL - 1x
Gm2 BOS/CWS - 1x
Gm2 HOU/MIL - 1x


No Score 1st Inning
TB/SEA - 1x

[Alki]

Thanks for posting Cal. Appreciate your efforts. Even though I don't comment often I've followed you and the gang in the other thread daily.

[btd]

Thanx for posting,I'm looking into some plays for tonite.

[calmeat]

Sorry guys I was away this weekend didnt have time to post todays picks,but here is what it was

7/31/11
No Score 1st inning (68w-34L) 66.67%
Yes Series Chase (26w-6L) 60%
Score First (20-12) 63%
ML Series Chase (11-0) 100% (started july 22)

ML Series Chase
NP


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm3 TEX/TOR - 2x
Gm3 FLA/ATL - 2x
Gm3 BOS/CWS - 2x



No Score 1st Inning
LAA/DET - 2x

Score First
NP

Leans
Yes Score
NP


No Score
NP

Score First
NP

[calmeat]

8/1/11
No Score 1st inning (69w-34L) 66.99%
Yes Series Chase (28w-7L) 80%
Score First (20-12) 63%
ML Series Chase (11-0) 100% (started july 22)

ML Series Chase
Gm1 CIN - .5x
Gm1 PHI - .5x

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm1 CLE/BOS - .5x
Gm1 FLA/NYM - .5x
Gm1 NYY/CWS - .5x
Gm1 STL/MIL - .5x

No Score 1st Inning
LAD/SD - 3x
ARI/SFG - 2x

Score First
NP

Leans
Yes Score
NP

No Score
NP

Score First
ATL
OAK

[btd]

Those are pretty impressive numbers, I'm going to tail you on a few games.

[JVP3122]

I assume you take into account the lines on your series chases, yes? For example let's look at the PHI/PIT series from over the weekend. Assume that Philly lost the first two games. You would not have just lost 0.5 units, but since the line on the first game was -270 you would have lost 1.35 units. Then you would have needed to wager to win 1.85 units, not just 1 unit, on game 2. The line on that game was -245, so if the Phils lost game 2 you would then be down 4.5325 units. If you're doing a proper chase then you're looking to win 0.5+1.35+4.5325=6.3825 units. As the line on yesterday's Phillies/Pirates game was -185 you're then looking at risking 11.807625 units. Of course if on your chases you're not playing to win 0.5 units, but you're instead risking 0.5 units on a -270 line then that's a different story.

[calmeat]

Thanks just wish i would have played the system only since the beginning instead of tailing others and doing other picks for fun. Think im just gonna stick with the system now and see how it all ends up. If you have any questions let me know.

[JVP3122]

Edit: Asked and answered. Question removed.

[calmeat]

I assume you take into account the lines on your series chases, yes? For example let's look at the PHI/PIT series from over the weekend. Assume that Philly lost the first two games. You would not have just lost 0.5 units, but since the line on the first game was -270 you would have lost 1.35 units. Then you would have needed to wager to win 1.85 units, not just 1 unit, on game 2. The line on that game was -245, so if the Phils lost game 2 you would then be down 4.5325 units. If you're doing a proper chase then you're looking to win 0.5+1.35+4.5325=6.3825 units. As the line on yesterday's Phillies/Pirates game was -185 you're then looking at risking 11.807625 units. Of course if on your chases you're not playing to win 0.5 units, but you're instead risking 0.5 units on a -270 line then that's a different story.

Right so a perfect example as well was the yankees,and say my units are 100. Those lines were nuts so there is the choice whether or not to play that series. So First game i usually bet to risk when juice is that high (think it was like -200) so i risked 50$, Yanks lost so the next game i would then bet to win 100 50(i lost)+50(original goal to win). Yanks Won so series is done. If they would have lost then i would bet to win all the money i have lost +50(original goal to win). These games can get ugly with juice so its always a buyer beware kind of thing.

*Eventhough risking the 50 on the first bet to win 25 if it wins hey i'm up 25 but if it looses you then have mininmized the juice a little bit. The original goal though is to win a half unit, which is reflected in games 2 and 3. Also this is assuming a unit size is 3-5% of Bank Roll.

[JVP3122]

Right so a perfect example as well was the yankees,and say my units are 100. Those lines were nuts so there is the choice whether or not to play that series. So First game i usually bet to risk when juice is that high (think it was like -200) so i risked 50$, Yanks lost so the next game i would then bet to win 100 50(i lost)+50(original goal to win). Yanks Won so series is done. If they would have lost then i would bet to win 200 (150(lost on Gm1 and gm2+50(original goal to win). These games can get ugly with juice so its always a buyer beware kind of thing.

*Eventhough rising the 50 on the first bet to win 25 if it wins hey i'm up 25 but if it looses you then have mininmized the juice a little bit. The original goal though is to win a half unit, which is reflected in games 2 and 3.

Rock and roll. Just wanted to clarify for those who don't know much in terms of chasing a series.

[calmeat]

well that sucked ass, both no scores lost even with the best matchups pretty much all year.

[jaycin]

Oh well, it happens. GL 2m; been tailing you, Calmeat. Keep up the good work.

[calmeat]

Thanks jaycin, Hopefully today will be better. One thing i forgot to mention which i did not adhere by last night (got greedy) is when juice is above 150 i would recommend only risking the units instead of betting to win the unit amount. That way if it looses you don't get killed.

8/2/11
No Score 1st inning (69w-36L) 65.71%
Yes Series Chase (31w-7L) Open 1 82%
Score First (20-12) 63%
ML Series Chase (12-0) Open 1 100% (started july 22)

ML Series Chase
Gm2 CIN - 1x


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm2 CLE/BOS - 1x


No Score 1st Inning
TOR/TB - 1x
CIN/HOU - 2x
MIN/LAA - 1x

Score First
NP

Leans
Yes Score
NYY/CWS

No Score
TEX/DET
ATL/WAS

Score First
SEA
SFG