Mlb props

[doubledime]

Still here Cal. On vacation just chillin. Looks as if your doing very well. BOL tonight my friend.

[Alki]

Following religiously Cal. Appreciate it. I just don't post too often.
Thanks for all you do.

[calmeat]

Ha ok well glad I'm not talking to myself on here

[calmeat]

So as you know the NO score has tailed off a bit. Im not really digging that prop that much anymore. I am however big fan of the chases we are doing. I will still post the NO score plays but will also be posting the chases. If you are wary of them i would suggest just trying one for a real small play and try it out. It does get scary but once you get confidence in it its better. It took me a while of playing them in parlays and all other ways to reduce juice but would get pissed when that day one would lose and i would lose because im not following the system. As you can see by the record the Score first chases and the ML chases are the best and try one of those to start with.

[calmeat]

8/18/11
No Score 1st inning (82w-46L) 64.06%
Yes Series Chase (49w-9L-1PPD) Open 0 84%
Score First (26-18) 59%
Score First Chase (5-0) 100%
ML Series Chase (23-0) Open 0 100% (started 6/22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (7-0) Open 0 100%

ML Series Chase
Gm1 - BOS - .5x W
Gm1 - NYY - 1x W

Unofficial ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm1 - BOS/KC - .5x W
Gm1 - NYY/MIN - .5x L
Gm1 - FLA/SD - .5x W


No Score 1st Inning
TEX/LAA - 1x W
Gm1 - TOR/OAK - .25 (chasing series for a no) W

Score First
NP

Score First Chase
Gm1 - BOS - .5x L
Gm1 - NYY - .5x W
Gm1 - TOR - .5x W
Gm1 - FLA - .5x L


Leans

Yes Score
FLA/SD

No Score
CLE/CWS W

Score First
LAD W
WAS W

[calmeat]

Alright im goin away for the weekend so not sure if ill be able to get on here. Hope you guys played something off here. Im gonna post my plays that i have for the weekend now just in case i dont get on here. My system shows there are no NO SCORE first innings. So i will be finishing my chases and will just follow them through the weekend.
Good luck everyone

8/19/11
No Score 1st inning (84w-46L) 64.62%
Yes Series Chase (51w-9L-1PPD) Open 1 85%
Score First (26-18) 59%
Score First Chase (7-0) Open 2 100%
ML Series Chase (25-0) Open 0 100% (started 6/22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (7-0) Open 0 100%

ML Series Chase
Gm1 - PHI - .5x NA
Gm1 - SFG - .5x L

Unofficial ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm2 - NYY/MIN - 1x W
Gm1 - MIL/NYM - .5x W
Gm1 - TEX/CWS - .5x W


No Score 1st Inning
NP

Score First
NP

Score First Chase
Gm2 - BOS - 1x L
Gm2 - FLA - 1x W
Gm1 - MIL -.5x W
Gm1 - STL -.5x W
Gm1 - TEX -.5x L
Gm1 - LAD -.5x W



Leans

Yes Score
NP

No Score
NP

Score First
NP

[calmeat]

8/20/11
No Score 1st inning (84w-46L) 64.62%
Yes Series Chase (54w-9L-1PPD) Open 0 86%
Score First (26-18) 59%
Score First Chase (11-0) Open 2 100%
ML Series Chase (25-0) Open 2 100% (started 6/22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (7-0) Open 0 100%

ML Series Chase
Gm2 - PHI - 1x W
Gm2 - SFG - 1x L

Unofficial ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
NP

No Score 1st Inning
NP

Score First
NP

Score First Chase
Gm3 - BOS - 2x W
Gm2 - TEX - 1x W

Leans

Yes Score
NP

No Score
NP

Score First
NP

[fitguy67]

i'm with ya on the FI no's and FTS (don't have enough cahones...or maybe too many brain cells, lol, for the chases)...excellent batting averages all around tho'...just a question of how to capitalize on it

me, i'd rather sacrifice some return in exchange for the longevity of flat betting...with a good batting average that trumps the probability inherent in the book odds, either way u'll be a winner...but the chase'll be a much scarier ride...and u just may be called to put on account-jeopardizing bets...i'd rather be super-chicken

with 60% winners, as long as your odds come in at better (ie. less negative) than -150 your golden...why i like ur No's and FTS' series

[calmeat]

Fitguy, i agree it is scary to do the chases but it really has been good. Started with 118 2 days ago and now up to 177 with a max of 5 dollar (5% of BR) starting bet and an average of 3.50 (3% of BR) on the starting bet. Its scary but at anytime you can kill a chase if you want. I almost did it on SFG today since i was already up good money. Takes a lot of cahones to do the chases but they do payoff when they hit.

[fitguy67]

Cal, we see eye to eye...just have a different "stomach" for the bumps along up-sloping road (what the investment advisors call "risk aversion"...some call it "sleepability")...

With a winning percentage that exceeds the probability inherent in the books [ie. 1/(decimal-quoted odds)] you'll make money long term anyway you size your bets...chases and "line-clearing" methods simply recoup losses&chalk of a losing streak quicker once winning re-asserts itself...in exchange for rapidly-escalating bet-sizes...magnifying the "risk of ruin" should the losing streak get uncomfortably long. This problem can be handled with a sensible "escape" policy like you describe. (Pocket previous wins/take the current loss and live to fight again with a fresh-start new series.)

Compared to chasing/line-clearing, flat-betting the same series will recover from losing streaks more slowly but doesn't task the financial or emotional resources nearly as much. (One seldom-mentioned advantage of flat betting is that because you don't have to "allow for" bet-size escalation during a bad spell...and the equity path is much smoother...a sensible flat bet size can be considerably larger than the sensible starting chase/line-clearing bet would be).

I super-appreciate you slinging great series of picks, each with winning% edges over average book values...the underlying methods you and you colleagues are developing are why u are winning. Chasing and line-clearing just speeds up the process a bit in exchange for a bumpier ride. Think i'll branch out and also start workin' (playin') your Yes and your ML series too ("a la flat", of course).

Bottom line: this thread rocks!

[calmeat]

Ok there is no single NO Scores first innings today but tomorrow as of right now there should be 3 plays. Here is the card today


8/22/11
No Score 1st inning (84w-46L) 64.62%
Yes Series Chase (55w-9L-1PPD) Open 0 86%
Score First (27-18) 60%
Score First Chase (13-0) Open 0 100%
ML Series Chase (27-0) Open 0 100% (started 6/22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (7-0) Open 0 100%

ML Series Chase
Gm1 - PHI - 1x W
Gm1 - ATL - .5x W

Unofficial ML Series Chase
Gm1 - MIL - 1x W
Gm1 - TEX - .5x W
Gm2 - MIL - 2x (if neccessary) NP

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm1 - MIL/PIT - .5x L
Gm1 - BOS/TEX - .5x L
Gm1 - ATL/CHC - .5x L
Gm2 - MIL/PIT - 1x (If neccessary) W


No Score 1st Inning
Gm1 - LAD/STL - .5x - Chasing series W

Score First
NP

Score First Chase
Gm1 - TEX - .5x W
Gm1 - MIL - .5x W
Gm1 - ATL - .5x W
Gm1 - LAD - .5x L
Gm1 - DET - .5x L
Gm2 - MIL - 1x (if neccessary) NoPlay

Leans

Yes Score
HOU/COL W

No Score
NYM/PHI W

Score First
COL W

[calmeat]

Another profitable night, hope it keeps going

8/23/11
No Score 1st inning (84w-46L) 64.62%
Yes Series Chase (56w-9L-1PPD) Open 2 86%
Score First (27-18) 60%
Score First Chase (16-0) Open 2 100%
ML Series Chase (27-0) Open 0 100% (started 6/22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (9-0) Open 0 100%

ML Series Chase
Gm1 - NYY - .5x L
Gm2 - ATL - .5x (4 game series) W

Unofficial ML Series Chase
Gm1 - TOR - .5x L
Gm3 - MIL - .5x (4 game series) W

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm2 - BOS/TEX - 1x W
Gm2 - ATL/CHC - 1x L
Gm1 - OAK/NYY - .5x L
Gm1 - KC/TOR - .5x L
Gm1 - CIN/FLA - .5x L


No Score 1st Inning
SEA/CLE - 1x (First Game) L
ARI/WAS - 2x W
CWS/LAA - 1x L

Score First
MIL W
TOR L
TEX L

Score First Chase
Gm2 - LAD - 1x W
Gm1 - TOR - 1x (shifting DET score first to TOR) L
Gm1 - NYY - .5x L
Gm1 - CIN - .5x W
Gm3 - MIL - .25x W
Gm2 - ATL - .5x W


Leans

Yes Score
NYM/PHI L

No Score
LAD/STL L

Score First
NP

[doubledime]

Nice night Cal Looks as if we are going to be on some of the same tonight.

[calmeat]

Thanks, Tough one yesterday thought that DET was gonna be a winner.

[calmeat]

So not a horrible night won some and lost some hoping to close the chases out tonight

8/24/11
No Score 1st inning (85w-48L) 63.91%
Yes Series Chase (57w-9L-1PPD) Open 4 86%
Score First (28-20) 58%
Score First Chase (19-0) Open 2 100%
ML Series Chase (30-0) Open 1 100% (started 6/22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (10-0) Open 1 100%

ML Series Chase
Gm2 - NYY - 1x L


Unofficial ML Series Chase
Gm2 - TOR - 1x W

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm3 - ATL/CHC - 2x L
Gm2 - OAK/NYY - 1x W
Gm2 - KC/TOR - 1x W
Gm2 - CIN/FLA - 1x L
Gm3 - CIN/FLA - 2x (if necessary) W


No Score 1st Inning
SEA/CLE - 1x W
SDP/SFG - 1x W

Score First
TOR L

Score First Chase
Gm2 - TOR - 2x L
Gm2 - NYY - 1x L


Leans

Yes Score
NYM/PHI W

No Score
LAD/STL W

Score First
LAA W
DET W

[doubledime]

Got your first NO in BOL tonight

[fitguy67]

Hey Cal, a while back i asked for you to breakdown your chases for me...and i learned that although you were then (as of Aug08 results) reporting 36 series won/8 series lost on your Yes chase...you were ACTUALLY (ie. if you hadn't chickened out on your ABC after just AB on a few of them which ultimately "would have" won) 44 series wins/5 series lost.

At that point (as of Aug08 results) in terms of completed series
22 were won on A (22-0)
17 were won on B (17-17)
5 were won on C (5-10), and
5 were lost (on C, of course...0-15)...for a record of 44-42, 51.16% of 86 games.

Since anyone tailing you accurately would/should have really been 44-5, instead of the 36-8 you reported at that time (and have built upon since in your reporting)...how about, in the interest of accuracy, bumping up your Yes series wins by 8 and dropping your series losses by 3...

By this more accurate reckoning, you are really an impressive 65 sW/6 sL (92%sW)...on properly-played ABC series.

[calmeat]

Hey Fit, Thanks for taking a look at all that. My overall record since starting to play it is actually 67-6 counting for a full 3 game chase. The record i post on here has only been the plays i have posted on here or on the other site i posted on. In the beginning i didnt trust it so only played a selected few and chickened out after game 2 so that is why my record shows that. I didnt want to post a record that i have no proof of showing besides on here or the other site i posted on. I try to keep them as accurate as possible but sometimes life happens and i miss one or 2 good or bad. But thanks for that break down. It was a learning year for me so next year i will make sure i keep an compelete accurate record and breakdown. Thanks again.

[calmeat]

8/25/11
No Score 1st inning (87w-48L) 64.44%
Yes Series Chase (60w-9L-1PPD) Open 4 87%
Score First (28-21) 57%
Score First Chase (20-0) Open 2 100%
ML Series Chase (30-0) Open 1 100% (started 6/22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (11-0) Open 0 100%

ML Series Chase
Gm3 - NYY - 2x W
Gm1 - SFG - .5x


Unofficial ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm4 - ATL/CHC - 4x W


No Score 1st Inning
NP

Score First
TOR

Score First Chase
Gm3 - TOR - 4x L
Gm3 - NYY - 2x L


Leans

Yes Score
NP

No Score
NP

Score First
NP

[calmeat]

8/26/11
No Score 1st inning (87w-48L) 64.44%
Yes Series Chase (61w-9L-1PPD) Open 0 87%
Score First (28-22) 57%
Score First Chase (20-2) Open 0 91%
ML Series Chase (30-0) Open 1 100% (started 6/22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (11-0) Open 0 100%

ML Series Chase
Gm2 - SFG - .5x (restart since 4 game series)
Gm1 - NYY - .5x L
Gm1 - PHI - .5x L
Gm1 - BOS - .5x L
Gm1 - MIL - .5x


Unofficial ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm1 - NYY/BAL - .25x L
Gm1 - FLA/PHI - .25x W
Gm1 - TB/TOR - .25x L
Gm1 - OAK/BOS - .25x W
Gm1 - CHI/MIL - .25x W


No Score 1st Inning
NP

Score First
ARI W

Score First Chase
Gm1 - NYY - .5x L
Gm1 - TB - .1x L
Gm1 - PIT - .5x W
Gm1 - PHI - .5x L
Gm1 - MIL - .1x L



Leans

Yes Score
WAS/CIN L

No Score
LAA/TEX W

Score First
LAD L

[thebonzman]

BOL!

[calmeat]

Just finishing chases today

[calmeat]

2-0 on finishing the chases tonight of course IRENE is kicking my ****.. Been bailing water out of the basement and dont think ill be sleeping tonight. Dont think ill have any time for MLB tomorrow hopefully be back at it on monday BOL everyone!!

[doubledime]

2-0 on finishing the chases tonight of course IRENE is kicking my ****.. Been bailing water out of the basement and dont think ill be sleeping tonight. Dont think ill have any time for MLB tomorrow hopefully be back at it on monday BOL everyone!!

Sorry to hear your situation. I hope it gets by ASAP Good luck

[fitguy67]

ditto what doubledime said...we all appreciate the cool buffet of picks, but sometime ya gotta tend to life's emergencies...

[calmeat]

Thanks guys luckily i was fortunate and didnt have the issues many other did. Kept power and only a bit of water in the basement no real damage.

[calmeat]

8/29/11
No Score 1st inning (88w-48L) 64.71%
Yes Series Chase (61w-9L-1PPD) Open 0 87%
Score First (28-22) 56%
Score First Chase (20-2) Open 0 91%
ML Series Chase (35-0-1) Open 0 100% (started 6/22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (11-0) Open 0 100%

ML Series Chase
NP


Unofficial ML Series Chase
PHI W
DET L
PIT L

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm1 - FLA/NYM - .5x L
Gm1 - COL/ARI - .5x W
Gm2 - FLA/NYM - 1x (if neccessary) L


No Score 1st Inning
KC/DET - 1x L

Score First
TOR L

Score First Chase
Gm1 - FLA - .25x L
Gm1 - PHI - .5x L
Gm1 - PIT - .5x W
Gm2 - FLA - .5x (if neccessary) L




Leans

Yes Score
NP

No Score
CHC/SFG W
MIN/CWS W

Score First
NYY W
TOR L
SFG L
LAD W

[doubledime]

Good to hear all is well and that the spread sheet is up and running.

[calmeat]

8/30/11
No Score 1st inning (88w-49L) 64.23%
Yes Series Chase (62w-9L-1PPD) Open 1 87%
Score First (28-22) 56%
Score First Chase (21-2) Open 0 91%
ML Series Chase (35-0-1) Open 0 100% (started 6/22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (12-0) Open 2 100%

ML Series Chase
NP


Unofficial ML Series Chase
Gm2 - DET - 1x W
Gm2 - PIT - 1x L

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm3 - FLA/NYM - 2x L
Gm1 - NYY/BOS - .5x L
Gm1 - TOR/BAL - .5x L
Gm1 - STL/MIL - .5x L

No Score 1st Inning
SD/LAD - 1x W

Score First
ATL - .5x L

Score First Chase
Gm3 - FLA - 1x W
Gm2 - PHI - 1x W
Gm1 - PIT - 1x W

Leans

Yes Score
FLA/NYM L
KC/DET L

No Score
ATL/WAS W
OAK/CLE W

Score First
PHI W
PIT W
NYY W
MIN W

[calmeat]

8/31/11
No Score 1st inning (89w-49L) 64.49%
Yes Series Chase (62w-9L-1PPD) Open 4 87%
Score First (28-24) 54%
Score First Chase (24-2) Open 0 92%
ML Series Chase (35-0-1) Open 0 100% (started 6/22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (14-0) Open 1 100%

ML Series Chase
NP


Unofficial ML Series Chase
Gm3 - PIT - 2x L

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm4 - FLA/NYM - 4x W
Gm2 - NYY/BOS - 1x L
Gm2 - TOR/BAL - 1x L
Gm2 - STL/MIL - 1x W

No Score 1st Inning
LAA/SEA - 1x W

Score First
ARI - .5x W
PIT - .5x L

Score First Chase
NP

Leans

Yes Score
OAK/CLE W

No Score
TB/TEX W

Score First
NP

Also adding ARI first 5 innings. W

[doubledime]

Good luck Cal

I was looking at the LAA/Seattle game also,but could not pull the trigger on it.

DD

[fitguy67]

Cal, keep up the good work...2 items for ya'

1. ur "official" MLchase plays are system generated, right? and the system is quite "picky" and doesn't generate many plays...which is why you've started rolling your own "unofficial" series of ML plays (this is similar to how your <unofficial> free-standing Leans are kept separate, and off-record vs. official plays of the same category). Do i understand this correctly.

2. Are you playing or tracking your Leans. If so, how 'r they doing, generally?

I gather this is a labor of love for you...but it IS labor...and I know i'm not the only one who appreciates the effort greatly.

[calmeat]

Fit,
Yeah so the Official ones are system generated and they still generate them, I am choosing though to not blindly play them now since around this time things start to get fishy, big dogs beat teams they have no reason beating, etc.. So by rule the official ML chase ended around aug 20th I am still going to post them though for tracking purposes and if i am going to bet it i will place the wager amount next to it.

As for my leans they really are hit or miss,lately though they have been good. Record is 118w - 84L since 7/1/2011 (that is when i started keeping track). I havent been playing the leans lately and im sure that is why they are doing well, ha. If there is a game or something i really really like i will play it otherwise i may throw down a little on some for fun.

Yeah I love trying to figure things out so i put a lot of time and effort into different things to see if they work. So far these systems and picks seem to work, some better then others but its a learning process and next year i will know what to play and what not to play based off this year. Thanks and hopefully some peeps are winning some money off of this.

[fitguy67]

Count me in to follow you from the start NEXT season...(your three-game mini-chases are really quite tolerable risk-wise, now that i see what ur doin')...

BTW...do you give any other sports (SOC, NFL/NCAAF, NHL, NBA/NCAAB, ...) the calmeat-system touch?

[calmeat]

Fit,
Glad you like it.

As of right now i do not have anything for the other sports except NBA/NCAAB. But i didnt have anything for baseball either so hopefully i can come up with something for NFL.