Mlb props

[calmeat]

well at least 2 of the first to score hit and salvaged the day a bit. Anyway here is todays card.
So for the boston game im not real confident in the Yes score since the pitching matchup is good. I may do the bet on the Yes score but then also play the otherside and see if i can work with the numbers to make it that if there is a no score then i only lose a little instead of everything.

8/7/11
No Score 1st inning (76w-37L) 67.26%
Yes Series Chase (36w-7L) Open 0 84%
Score First (22-12) 65%
ML Series Chase (14-0) Open 0 100% (started july 22)

ML Series Chase
NP


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm3 NYY/BOS - 2x L(what you lost last game + .5x)


No Score 1st Inning
OAK/TB - 1x W
SEA/LAA - 1x W
PHI/SFG - 1x W
LAD/ARI - 1x L

Score First
NYM L

Leans
Yes Score
CIN/CHC L

No Score
DET/KC W

Score First
STL L

[calmeat]

So that boston Yes chase sucked for the second series in a row. The BOS/MIN series better win or i will not play bos on that chase again.
Here is the card for today

8/8/11
No Score 1st inning (79w-38L) 67.52%
Yes Series Chase (36w-8L) Open 0 82%
Score First (22-13) 63%
ML Series Chase (14-0) Open 0 100% (started july 22)

ML Series Chase
Gm1 BOS - .5x -125 W - Im skipping this one. Pitcher matchups arent great. Though i dont see BOS getting swept
Gm1 ARI - .5x -180 L
Gm1 PHI - 1x -170 W

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm1 Bos/MIN - .5x L
Gm1 ATL/FLA - .5x L

No Score 1st Inning
KC/TB - 1x L
HOU/ARI - 2x L
PHI/LAD - 1x L

Score First
CIN - .5x W
CHC - .5x PPD
ARI - .5x Chasing series L
Tex - 1x chasing series W



Leans

ML Series Chase
Gm1 TEX -230 W
Gm1 SFG -175 L

Yes Score
WAS/CHC

No Score
PIT/SFG L

Score First
NP

[jaycin]

Let's get this GL!

[calmeat]

Alright now we got those losses out of the way (and the Cin score first win) Lets get the rest of these!

[calmeat]

ewww looks like mondays are no good for me.

[doubledime]

Cal,

As they say this is a marathon, not a sprint. Plus, with all the data you draw from, winning over the long term is going to be a given.

DD

[calmeat]

Cal,

As they say this is a marathon, not a sprint. Plus, with all the data you draw from, winning over the long term is going to be a given.

DD

Yeah i try to tell myself that only problem is i hate marathons too much running.

[calmeat]

OK lets get this back, 0-3 on no score sucks usually at least one hits. Alright enough of that lets get em today
8/9/11
No Score 1st inning (79w-41L) 65.83%
Yes Series Chase (36w-8L) Open 2 82%
Score First (23-13) 64%
ML Series Chase (16-0) Open 1 100% (started july 22)


ML Series Chase
Gm2 ARI - 1x

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm2 BOS/MIN - 1x W
Gm2 ATL/FLA - 1x L
Gm1 LAA/NYY - .5x W
Gm1 OAK/TOR - .5x L
Gm1 MIL/STL - .5x L

No Score 1st Inning - I may take off today for this prop.
DET/CLE - 1x L
PHI/LAD - 1x W

Score First
CHC - .5x L
Gm2 ARI - 1x W Chasing series


Leans

ML Series Chase
Gm2 SFG

Yes Score
WAS/CHC L
COL/CIN L

No Score
NP

Score First
TB W
TEX L

[BBQ Man]

Cal, I'm just playing your No's 1st inn.GL tonight, get Mon. back.

[benandjerry]

Interesting thread, will follow your progress, GL and keep up the good work man!

[fitguy67]

calmeat...i've been quietly been appreciating your efforts for a while...brilliant strike rate on both of your non-chasers.

As for the chases, IF it's not too much of a hassle, could you (at your convenience, of course, it's not urgent in anyway...just to satisfy my curiosity) compile a WL record of your chase-system picks in terms of individual games--as opposed to series (each of which represents from one to three games.

What's going on here and over in Bob/DoubleDime's thread is excellent.

[calmeat]

Fitguy this is a rough showing of it i havent kept the best records when i first started but have been better since all star break.
Yes Series
Gm1 - 22w
Gm2 - 17w
Gm3 - 5w

ML Chase
Gm1 - 12
Gm2- 4
Gm3 -1

[fitguy67]

Thanks, that's close enough for my purposes. (Obviously the number or series lost will all show up as L's under Gm3.)

Apologies for the interruption...Carry on soldier.

[calmeat]

No problem, Also to note the actual overall record for yes chase is 44-5. I was stopping after game 2 to minimize the loss but saw that more than not the chase would win on game 3 so now i play the whole series with a game 4 as a possibility.

[calmeat]

Nothing looks good today so just going to play my chases.


8/10/11
No Score 1st inning (80w-42L) 65.57%
Yes Series Chase (38w-8L) Open 3 83%
Score First (24-14) 63%
ML Series Chase (17-0) Open 0 100% (started july 22)


ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm3 ATL/FLA - 2x W
Gm2 OAK/TOR - 1x W
Gm2 MIL/STL - 1x W

No Score 1st Inning
NP

Score First
NP


Leans

ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score
NP

No Score
NP


Score First
NP

[calmeat]

Nice 3-0 today Back to where i was before a couple of bad beats. I was leaning to play ARI score first tonight just not sure if i will pull the trigger on it

[calmeat]

Got some early games today so lets get 'em early

8/11/11
No Score 1st inning (80w-42L) 65.57%
Yes Series Chase (41w-8L) Open 0 84%
Score First (24-14) 63%
ML Series Chase (17-0) Open 0 100% (started july 22)


ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
NP

No Score 1st Inning
DET/CLE - 1x

Score First
NYY L


Leans

ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score
KC/TB W


No Score
SD/NYM W
COL/CIN L
WAS/CHC L


Score First
NP

[calmeat]

My plays locked in for early games
SD/NYM NO score
KC/TB YES score
COL/CIN No Score
NYY Score First

Lets see how that goes haha.

[jaycin]

tailed all your plays!! i like being on the positive side good luck!

[calmeat]

ah 2-2 on those games boo, really thought we were gonna get the NYY SF i mean 2 times they got doubled up with guys on 3rd.

[The Sand Man]

Can anyone play defense? The Indian's can't.

[calmeat]

no that was so ridiculous, Bad throw to first otherwise that was an easy win. Now im gonna play the MIL/STL No. Im going small on it since there are lots of possible plays tommorrow although right now there are no No score plays for tomorrow. Which is probably good with all the Runs being score in the first inning.

[jaycin]

@ the DET/CLE game. oh well... it happens... liking a lot of Friday games. BOL

[calmeat]

No score is really sucking lately, I do see a good oppurtunity though with chasing a NO in the HOU/LAD game So i will be doing that one. Tomorrow it looks to be a 2 unit play so i might as well play it today as well. Here is the card

8/12/11
No Score 1st inning (80w-43L) 65.04%
Yes Series Chase (41w-8L) Open 0 84%
Score First (24-15) 62%
ML Series Chase (17-0) Open 0 100% (started july 22)


ML Series Chase
Gm1 PHI - .5x L
Gm1 ATL - .5x W
Gm1 BOS - .5x W


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm1 TB/NYY - .5x L
Gm1 LAA/TOR - .5x L
Gm1 SFG/FLA - .5x W
Gm1 PIT/MIL - .5x L
Gm1 BOS/SEA - .5x W
Gm1 KC/CWS - .5x W


No Score 1st Inning
NP

Score First
PHI L
STL W

Leans

ML Series Chase
MIL W

Yes Score
NP


No Score
HOU/LAD - Series chase W
TEx/OAK W


Score First
SFG W

[fitguy67]

That's what makes baseball SO hard to cap (actually it's no harder to cap than any other sport...but just so much harder to win even when correctly capped)...because...

it's a game of inches AND unpredictable flash-reversions to little-league-level form

...first ground ball of the game and the home-team Cleveland infielder, tries to throw the ball to first base...somewhere in Detroit.

What's up for Friday?

[calmeat]

8/13/11
No Score 1st inning (80w-43L) 65.04%
Yes Series Chase (44w-8L) Open 0 85%
Score First (25-16) 62%
ML Series Chase (20-0) Open 0 100% (started july 22)


ML Series Chase
Gm2 PHI - 1x


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm2 TB/NYY - 1x
Gm2 LAA/TOR - 1x
Gm2 PIT/MIL - 1x


No Score 1st Inning
TEX/OAK - 1x
BOS/SEA - 1x
HOU/LAD - 2x

Score First
STL


Leans

ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score
NP


No Score
NP


Score First
NP

[calmeat]

8/14/11
No Score 1st inning (81w-45L) 64.29%
Yes Series Chase (45w-8L) Open 2 85%
Score First (25-17) 60%
ML Series Chase (21-0) Open 0 100% (started july 22)


ML Series Chase
NP


Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm3 TB/NYY - 2x PPD
Gm3 PIT/MIL - 2x


No Score 1st Inning
NP

Score First
STL


Leans

ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score
NP


No Score
NP


Score First
NP

[calmeat]

8/15/11
No Score 1st inning (81w-45L) 64.29%
Yes Series Chase (46w-8L-1PPD) Open 0 85%
Score First (25-18) 58%
ML Series Chase (21-0) Open 0 100% (started july 22)


ML Series Chase
Gm1 NYY - 1x W

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm1 NYY/KC - .5x L
Gm1 LAD/MIL - .5x L
Gm1 FLA/COL - .5x W
Gm1 TOR/SEA - .5x W

No Score 1st Inning
NP

Score First
NP


Leans

ML Series Chase
Gm1 DET - .5x L
Gm1 CHC - .5x W
Gm1 MIL - .5x W
Gm1 NYM - .5x W


Yes Score
SFG/ATL W
CHC/HOU W
NYM/SD L


No Score
NP


Score First - Series Chase
Gm1 TEX - .5x W
Gm1 MIL - .5x W
Gm1 NYY - .5x W

[calmeat]

Good day yesterday, wish that damn juice on DET wasnt so high
8/16/11
No Score 1st inning (81w-45L) 64.29%
Yes Series Chase (48w-8L-1PPD) Open 2 86%
Score First (25-18) 58%
ML Series Chase (22-0) Open 0 100% (started july 22)


ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm2 NYY/KC - 1x
Gm2 LAD/MIL - 1x

No Score 1st Inning
STL/PIT - 1x

Score First
NP


Leans

ML Series Chase
Gm2 DET - 1x
Gm1 BOS - .5x
Gm1 PHI - .5x
Gm2 BOS - 1x (if Bos loses first game)

Yes Score
CIN/WAS
TB/BOS -GM2

No Score
ARI/PHI

Score First
Gm2 STL - 1x

[calmeat]

Up 9 units in past 2 days hoping to finish out the chases today. Anyone still looking at this?

8/17/11
No Score 1st inning (82w-45L) 64.57%
Yes Series Chase (49w-8L-1PPD) Open 1 86%
Score First (25-18) 58%
Score First Chase (5-0) 100%
ML Series Chase (23-0) Open 0 100% (started july 22)
Unofficial ML Series Chase (6-0) Open 1 100%

ML Series Chase
NP

Yes Score 1st Inning Chase
Gm3 LAD/MIL - 2x L

No Score 1st Inning
TEX/LAA - 1x

Score First
PHI W


Leans

ML Series Chase
Gm2 PHI - 1x W


Yes Score
NP

No Score
SFG/ATL L
NYY/KC L

Score First
OAK L
CIN W

[The Sand Man]

I'm following you everyday.

[BBQ Man]

I am, took advantage of yesterdays 1st inn. NO. Don't play anything elise. Thanks.

[fitguy67]

Keep up the work CM, i'm all over your non-chase FI-No's and FTS's...this thread is a buried treasure

[jaycin]

tailing you everyday "lurkerishly"! haha GL!

[calmeat]

haha alright cool, Thought i was wasting my time posting. If you want buried treasure ill have some for you next series. I know chases are scary and can be deadly but ive increased my bankroll by 30% in 2 days. You may want to give one a try. Banmanj has been the man in backtesting and figuring out some new trends to play and stuff.