LTA's MLB Plays

[pacocn]

I don't think he mentions the line being "mispriced" however,
he does mention a pitching disparity. Sounds like he is making
a play on a superior pitcher. Also GB% percentages may lead to more
double plays which is a good thing in any park.

[God1]

I never said it was mispriced at -105

Obviously if you're betting at -105 that means you think it's mispriced, otherwise you wouldn't bet

...but I did note that the price has risen on the Padres by ten cents since opening at both Pinny and Greek indicating a market correction from early error. Unfortunately, I was not able to get on board prior to such correction because one my locals opened up at -105 and the other at -108. I don't bet with offshore books because of the numerous risks as a US citizen so that limits my ability to be early openers. However, my model has this one at -110, so there still is a little value left for me at -105. In addition, there are some situational angles I also like here which make this an attractive play for me. I think this one goes up around that -110 range by close, so I locked it in now.

Is your model grading the offenses equally? Or a much bigger gap in pitching than 30 cents? Is your model park adjusted?

[Love The Action]

Gotcha. I have always said you are a sharp dude G1, just too negative bro. GL .

It's ok bro...I didn't take that question as negative. Hope you had a nice day cashing with the Cubs TT over. Good luck tomorrow!

[God1]

I don't think he mentions the line being "mispriced" however,
he does mention a pitching disparity.

If the line isn't mispriced then it's a losing bet obviously

Sounds like he is making
a play on a superior pitcher.

lol you think the way to win is to just bet on the better pitcher?

Also GB% percentages may lead to more
double plays which is a good thing in any park.

The reason GB% have such a big impact on pitcher effectiveness has to with fewer HRs not an increase in double plays(SIERA accounts for the double play part of GB%, it's impact is very small). A high GB% is less valuable in a park that suppresses home runs.

[Redscot]

It's ok bro...I didn't take that question as negative. Hope you had a nice day cashing with the Cubs TT over. Good luck tomorrow!

Heheh. You're right man. I just get frustrated sometimes with G1 because I really think he can bring a lot of good thought to the site, but his message get's lost in the delivery.

Cheers

[Love The Action]

Obviously if you're betting at -105 that means you think it's mispriced, otherwise you wouldn't bet



Is your model grading the offenses equally? Or a much bigger gap in pitching than 30 cents? Is your model park adjusted?

I weight starting pitching a little more heavily than others might...not a ton but a bit.

The assumed loss of Reyes and Murphy kills the Mets offense because they are losing their #1 and #3 guys in terms of WAR. I'm sure you know their #2 ranked hitter all year in WAR was Beltran. The loss of the Mets' top three offensive players in terms of WAR, significantly closes the gap between the anemic Padres offense and the once imposing Mets offense. Even though I have it at -110, I would probably take the Padres in this spot up to the -113 range. As I said, I like a few situational angles as well.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/8/11

Play #1

Padres ML (-105) 1.5x (Locked)

We have a pretty huge disparity in starting pitching in this one that was hit right at the open as shown by the ten cent increase in price from the open at Pinny and Greek. Stauffer dominates Pelfrey by 1 pt or more in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Stauffer has a better K% 17% to 12% and a much better GB/FB of 2.13 to 1.21 which shows he has the better ability to get both strikeouts and groundballs. With an advantage in WAR of 2.3 to 0.1, we have a clear advantage with Stauffer. The Mets are now most likely going to be without Reyes and Murphy for Monday's game. For a lineup already struggling, the loss of Reyes and Murphy hurts. The Padres are an offensively-challenged team but are hitting better of late. Plus, the majority of the Mets lineup has never faced Stauffer other than a handful of guys and that was only a few at-bats each. This gives Stauffer the advantage as the pitcher generally has an edge when facing a lineup for the first time before adjustments can be made. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Padres ML for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox ML (-115) 1x (Locked)

Only the Mariners are a worse team against lefties than Baltimore. The Orioles are 11-23 on the year against lefties and I think after tonight you will see that record at 11-24. I have been looking for a spot to back Danks for awhile and would have generally pulled the trigger last week against the Yanks and Hughes if we didn't know that the Yanks are winning at over 60% clip in the last two years against lefties. Sure enough, we held off and the Yanks knocked Danks around. I expect Danks to bounce back here and support the clear advantage the Sox have with Danks over Guthrie going for Baltimore. The only bad part of having Guthrie pitch is that Dunn will probably be in the lineup because Guthrie is a rightie. Nevertheless, the White Sox are coming off three straight wins over a team in Minny who has had a psychological advantage over them, especially in Minny. I think these three wins will build some momentum for the White Sox heading to into a series with a beatable team in Baltimore with a very beatable pitcher in Guthrie. The price on the Sox has jumped a few cents at most books, but I expect a closer around -120 which is where I think this one should be. Good luck.

[RoagBettor]

I don't post much in here but yours is one of the few threads I read every day. Keep up the great work my friend!

[Love The Action]

A couple of moneylines to start off Monday's card. I don't see too many totals I like tomorrow. I would like to take that Philly/LA under, but I think that should bet at 6.5 and not 6. Could that extra low number be a lean by the books? Anyone scheduled to rest for the Phils tomorrow.

We have a few more lines to investigate tomorrow. Off to bed now...let's have a big day on Monday to start the week!

[God1]

Play #2

White Sox ML (-115) 1x (Locked)

Only the Mariners are a worse team against lefties than Baltimore. The Orioles are 11-23 on the year against lefties and I think after tonight you will see that record at 11-24. I have been looking for a spot to back Danks for awhile and would have generally pulled the trigger last week against the Yanks and Hughes if we didn't know that the Yanks are winning at over 60% clip in the last two years against lefties. Sure enough, we held off and the Yanks knocked Danks around. I expect Danks to bounce back here and support the clear advantage the Sox have with Danks over Guthrie going for Baltimore. The only bad part of having Guthrie pitch is that Dunn will probably be in the lineup because Guthrie is a rightie. Nevertheless, the White Sox are coming off three straight wins over a team in Minny who has had a psychological advantage over them, especially in Minny. I think these three wins will build some momentum for the White Sox heading to into a series with a beatable team in Baltimore with a very beatable pitcher in Guthrie. The price on the Sox has jumped a few cents at most books, but I expect a closer around -120 which is where I think this one should be. Good luck.

I'm seeing baltimore ranked 12th in the league in OPS against lefties. Not sure why their win/loss would be revelant as a lefty pitcher only affects the offensive side of the equation for the orioles

[Love The Action]

I don't post much in here but yours is one of the few threads I read every day. Keep up the great work my friend!

Thanks Roag...good luck to you as well

[chantrain]

interesting pick Love The Action, I'm debating on whether I should put my money on the Sox or the Cubs. Sox is less juice and I like the fact that you're on it too. But Sox have some real offensive woes sometimes...I'm hoping they broke out of that with the Twins sweep.

I'd like to know the line up for this game. If Rios and Dunn are both in I might have to pass

[pacocn]

Lta Kuroda has completely baffled the Phils in the past
hitting well below the Mendoza line against him, books are
onto something starting at 6. I like the under, but the line
is not mispriced.

[pacocn]

God1 do you see anything mispriced for tomorrow? I think
the Dodgers are going to play the Phils tough. 72% of John
Q. Public on the Phils, and we have RLM Dodgers opened at +156
and it is down to +146 any thoughts God, i think i will wait and see.

[pacocn]

Lta take a good long look at that Dodger line movement.

[Full-Grown]

Not seeing any movement in that Philly Dodger game.

[God1]

God1 do you see anything mispriced for tomorrow? I think
the Dodgers are going to play the Phils tough. 72% of John
Q. Public on the Phils, and we have RLM Dodgers opened at +156
and it is down to +146 any thoughts God, i think i will wait and see.

Royals and Braves. Dodgers will be profitable but it's most likely pretty thin. Royals look off by quite a bit to me, Hellickson is being priced as quite a bit better than SIERA indicates. I understand he's a nasty prospect but I'm going to go with what he's put up so far in his career and I will side with what he's done so far versus what they project he might be capable of, none of which is showing up in his GB rate, SwStrk rate, or O-swing rate. Those are all indicators how good his "stuff" is and that's not something you can change overnight. He's also seen a very slight decrease in velocity from last year

[bigballer891]

Royals and Braves. Dodgers will be profitable but it's most likely pretty thin. Royals look off by quite a bit to me, Hellickson is being priced as quite a bit better than SIERA indicates. I understand he's a nasty prospect but I'm going to go with what he's put up so far in his career and I will side with what he's done so far versus what they project he might be capable of, none of which is showing up in his GB rate, SwStrk rate, or O-swing rate. Those are all indicators how good his "stuff" is and that's not something you can change overnight. He's also seen a very slight decrease in velocity from last year

Do you think braves or the over is the stronger play? Pretty hard to trust lowe right now either, but Im definitely trying to bet against hand tomorow as well.

[JR007]

Read pinnicle sports betting tips, first five (halfs)...interesting.....stuff...YOU CAN INCORPORATE..DERIVATIVE PRICING..INTO TOTALS HANDICAPPING......

[Redscot]

Start of a new week LTA, positive momentum is rolling forward. Keep doing your thing.

[Love The Action]

Royals and Braves. Dodgers will be profitable but it's most likely pretty thin. Royals look off by quite a bit to me, Hellickson is being priced as quite a bit better than SIERA indicates. I understand he's a nasty prospect but I'm going to go with what he's put up so far in his career and I will side with what he's done so far versus what they project he might be capable of, none of which is showing up in his GB rate, SwStrk rate, or O-swing rate. Those are all indicators how good his "stuff" is and that's not something you can change overnight. He's also seen a very slight decrease in velocity from last year

Do you think braves or the over is the stronger play? Pretty hard to trust lowe right now either, but Im definitely trying to bet against hand tomorow as well.

I would rather go with the over in the KC/TB game than KC ML. However, Hellickson has not faced more than a few batters in that lineup and the early movement points to the under.

The Braves, on the other hand, is an interesting game. There is no way Hand continues his lucky streak. Although the Braves are the bottom of the league in most offensive stats against lefties, I still like them here against Hand. Since 2008, Lowe has never had back to back games giving up 5 earned runs or more. He has had streaks where he gave up 4 earned runs three games in a row, but he is very good at bouncing back from really poor performances. Right now, the Braves took a little dip in price and are only two cents more than they were at open. The Braves provide a possible third play for me.

[Love The Action]

interesting pick Love The Action, I'm debating on whether I should put my money on the Sox or the Cubs. Sox is less juice and I like the fact that you're on it too. But Sox have some real offensive woes sometimes...I'm hoping they broke out of that with the Twins sweep.

I'd like to know the line up for this game. If Rios and Dunn are both in I might have to pass

I also like the Cubs, but the price is too high. Perhaps a ML action parlay with Texas looks promising.

[Love The Action]

Lta Kuroda has completely baffled the Phils in the past
hitting well below the Mendoza line against him, books are
onto something starting at 6. I like the under, but the line
is not mispriced.

Yeah, I know. That number just seems low to me. However, the early line movement seems to support your position. Good luck if you play it. I am still in consideration mode.

[Love The Action]

Lta take a good long look at that Dodger line movement.

Some slight early move, but let's wait and see. Probably a pass for me.

[Love The Action]

Read pinnicle sports betting tips, first five (halfs)...interesting.....stuff...YOU CAN INCORPORATE..DERIVATIVE PRICING..INTO TOTALS HANDICAPPING......

Here is the link for those interested in what JR mentioned http://www.pinnaclesports.com/bettin.../baseball-tips


Good luck today

[Love The Action]

Start of a new week LTA, positive momentum is rolling forward. Keep doing your thing.

Good luck today Red

[BigDan]

grabbed me some of cws last night as well, glad to see we agree and line seems to be shooting up as was expected.

see you guys talking kc/tb. i had to take kc+1.5 and a little on the ml @ +158 just cause i felt it was high...hate to see you lean over as i like this under as well..

Not sure how much of a bounce back i expect from Lowe as you can pretty much pencil him in for 5 to 6 inn and 3-4 runs given up every gm. Infante out of lineup certainly hurts fish, and im not gonna act like i trust Hand, although he did handle this atl club once doubt he does it again but he is a lefty and as you said braves vs lefties not good. My 1st thought was over in this one so that prob dead wrong,lol. really not sure but not feeling atl in this one.

You have been killing it brother. keep up the great work

[pacocn]

Lta, good morning!!! bol today, my book still has
not posted the Padres game, they are waiting for some reason
thanks for Jr's link.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/8/11

Play #1

Padres ML (-105) 1.5x (Locked)

We have a pretty huge disparity in starting pitching in this one that was hit right at the open as shown by the ten cent increase in price from the open at Pinny and Greek. Stauffer dominates Pelfrey by 1 pt or more in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Stauffer has a better K% 17% to 12% and a much better GB/FB of 2.13 to 1.21 which shows he has the better ability to get both strikeouts and groundballs. With an advantage in WAR of 2.3 to 0.1, we have a clear advantage with Stauffer. The Mets are now most likely going to be without Reyes and Murphy for Monday's game. For a lineup already struggling, the loss of Reyes and Murphy hurts. The Padres are an offensively-challenged team but are hitting better of late. Plus, the majority of the Mets lineup has never faced Stauffer other than a handful of guys and that was only a few at-bats each. This gives Stauffer the advantage as the pitcher generally has an edge when facing a lineup for the first time before adjustments can be made. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Padres ML for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox ML (-115) 1x (Locked)

Only the Mariners are a worse team against lefties than Baltimore. The Orioles are 11-23 on the year against lefties and I think after tonight you will see that record at 11-24. I have been looking for a spot to back Danks for awhile and would have generally pulled the trigger last week against the Yanks and Hughes if we didn't know that the Yanks are winning at over 60% clip in the last two years against lefties. Sure enough, we held off and the Yanks knocked Danks around. I expect Danks to bounce back here and support the clear advantage the Sox have with Danks over Guthrie going for Baltimore. The only bad part of having Guthrie pitch is that Dunn will probably be in the lineup because Guthrie is a rightie. Nevertheless, the White Sox are coming off three straight wins over a team in Minny who has had a psychological advantage over them, especially in Minny. I think these three wins will build some momentum for the White Sox heading to into a series with a beatable team in Baltimore with a very beatable pitcher in Guthrie. The price on the Sox has jumped a few cents at most books, but I expect a closer around -120 which is where I think this one should be. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves ML (-111) 1x (Locked)

Off to work so not much time for a writeup. This is a little more than I would have liked to pay, although my model has this at -115 in favor of the Braves. I did not lock this in earlier because I was unsure how Hand was going to be treated and was hoping there would be more Marlins support based on his 1.36 WHIP and ERA under 2. However, I just don't see it early and I would rather lock this in now than wait and risk it going up any further. Lowe has been up and down and most recently down giving up 5 earned runs in his last start. However, I like Lowe as a bounce back pitcher as he has a solid history of avoiding back to back poor starts. When you check the advanced stats, Lowe has a HUGE advantage over Hand by at least 2.5 pts in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Lowe is one of the best ground ball pitchers in the league and I always like having that advantage on my side. Yes, the Braves are one of the worst teams against lefties, but I like them in this spot against a guy in Hand who is due for a big time regression. I'm rolling with the Braves to continue the Marlins' losing streak for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I'm off to work...I have a few more leans so let's see where they go. Be back later. Good luck to everyone today

[Love The Action]

I am leaning to the Twins, but I think it is a bit too stale to bet them right now and if they drop in price it would make me feel less confident in the play. In addition, its pretty tough to go against Boston right now....

[chantrain]

I'm with you on the CWS

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/8/11

Play #1

Padres ML (-105) 1.5x (Locked)

We have a pretty huge disparity in starting pitching in this one that was hit right at the open as shown by the ten cent increase in price from the open at Pinny and Greek. Stauffer dominates Pelfrey by 1 pt or more in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Stauffer has a better K% 17% to 12% and a much better GB/FB of 2.13 to 1.21 which shows he has the better ability to get both strikeouts and groundballs. With an advantage in WAR of 2.3 to 0.1, we have a clear advantage with Stauffer. The Mets are now most likely going to be without Reyes and Murphy for Monday's game. For a lineup already struggling, the loss of Reyes and Murphy hurts. The Padres are an offensively-challenged team but are hitting better of late. Plus, the majority of the Mets lineup has never faced Stauffer other than a handful of guys and that was only a few at-bats each. This gives Stauffer the advantage as the pitcher generally has an edge when facing a lineup for the first time before adjustments can be made. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Padres ML for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox ML (-115) 1x (Locked)

Only the Mariners are a worse team against lefties than Baltimore. The Orioles are 11-23 on the year against lefties and I think after tonight you will see that record at 11-24. I have been looking for a spot to back Danks for awhile and would have generally pulled the trigger last week against the Yanks and Hughes if we didn't know that the Yanks are winning at over 60% clip in the last two years against lefties. Sure enough, we held off and the Yanks knocked Danks around. I expect Danks to bounce back here and support the clear advantage the Sox have with Danks over Guthrie going for Baltimore. The only bad part of having Guthrie pitch is that Dunn will probably be in the lineup because Guthrie is a rightie. Nevertheless, the White Sox are coming off three straight wins over a team in Minny who has had a psychological advantage over them, especially in Minny. I think these three wins will build some momentum for the White Sox heading to into a series with a beatable team in Baltimore with a very beatable pitcher in Guthrie. The price on the Sox has jumped a few cents at most books, but I expect a closer around -120 which is where I think this one should be. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves ML (-111) 1x (Locked)

Off to work so not much time for a writeup. This is a little more than I would have liked to pay, although my model has this at -115 in favor of the Braves. I did not lock this in earlier because I was unsure how Hand was going to be treated and was hoping there would be more Marlins support based on his 1.36 WHIP and ERA under 2. However, I just don't see it early and I would rather lock this in now than wait and risk it going up any further. Lowe has been up and down and most recently down giving up 5 earned runs in his last start. However, I like Lowe as a bounce back pitcher as he has a solid history of avoiding back to back poor starts. When you check the advanced stats, Lowe has a HUGE advantage over Hand by at least 2.5 pts in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Lowe is one of the best ground ball pitchers in the league and I always like having that advantage on my side. Yes, the Braves are one of the worst teams against lefties, but I like them in this spot against a guy in Hand who is due for a big time regression. I'm rolling with the Braves to continue the Marlins' losing streak for 1x. Good luck.

The card is final at the above three plays. A rare day with no totals - can't remember the last time that happened - but we take what the overall card gives us. As long as the lines don't move too much from where they are right now, we will have beat the closer on all three plays. As long as we keep beating closers, the profit will follow. Good luck to everyone tonight!

[GoggsViggs]

Like the card tonight bro. BOL

[chantrain]

4-0 white sox and 0 outs!