LTA's MLB Plays

[Redscot]

Any thoughts on the Fla total LTA? Garcia's road woes aside it has been a low scoring series and VazCan has actually been solid fora good stretch now.

[Love The Action]

Any thoughts on the Fla total LTA? Garcia's road woes aside it has been a low scoring series and VazCan has actually been solid fora good stretch now.

I'm probably going to roll with the Cards -1 RL in that one. I missed the early run on the ML that saw it jump over 10 cents and I'm confident that the Cards roll today. I'm not too trusting of Vazquez in this particular spot, even though he has pitched well of late.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/7/11

Play #1

Milwaukee/Houston under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
(7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Greinke has been underpriced all year because of some tough luck defense and not-so-good standard stats. However, his defense independent stats have always been great. Now that his standard stats are catching up, we aren't getting as much value. This total would have opened at 8 runs a month ago, but now we see 7.5. I still think we see some value as my model has this one closer to 6.5. Because of all the runs the Brewers and Astros scored this series so far, you are going to see the majority of bets on the over. However, we know better. Norris is by far the Astros best pitcher and I am not worried about his blister. He has solid advanced stats and has pitched very well against this Brewers lineup in the past. I expect the Brewers to go back to the team that struggles offensively on the road against Norris today. We have an ump with no lean but a 63.1% strike rate and r/p/gm average just over 8.

Play #2

Dodgers/Diamondbacks under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
(7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Kershaw is a beast and Kennedy has solid advanced stats. Now that he is getting a few more ground balls to go with the strikeouts, he is a much more viable under pitcher. I still continue to think the absence of Drew will hurt this AZ lineup at some point. They have had some high scoring games in this series so far, but I expect both starting pitchers to roll today. My model also has this one closer to 6.5, so I think there is a bit of value here on the under with a score of 8 required to beat us. On both of these games I am splitting my stake between 7.5 with heavy juice and 7 with no juice. Even though I reduce my odds of cashing, I would rather reduce my risk because I think both of these plays safely stay under the posted totals and am staking 2x on each of them. Good luck.

Play #3

Seattle/LAA under (6.5) 1x (Locked)

Maybe this is one of those game that looks obvious under and goes over, however, sometimes the easy play is also the winning play. Santana is pitching great and even though he threw over 120 pitches in his last outting, I don't expect any ill-effects. Santana's advanced stats are solid and I see nothing in his history against this lineup to scare me off this play. On the other side, we have Kind Felix who is always capable of having no-hit stuff. These two teams have played to two straight unders and I think we make it three straight for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/7/11

Play #1

Milwaukee/Houston under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
(7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Greinke has been underpriced all year because of some tough luck defense and not-so-good standard stats. However, his defense independent stats have always been great. Now that his standard stats are catching up, we aren't getting as much value. This total would have opened at 8 runs a month ago, but now we see 7.5. I still think we see some value as my model has this one closer to 6.5. Because of all the runs the Brewers and Astros scored this series so far, you are going to see the majority of bets on the over. However, we know better. Norris is by far the Astros best pitcher and I am not worried about his blister. He has solid advanced stats and has pitched very well against this Brewers lineup in the past. I expect the Brewers to go back to the team that struggles offensively on the road against Norris today. We have an ump with no lean but a 63.1% strike rate and r/p/gm average just over 8.

Play #2

Dodgers/Diamondbacks under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
(7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Kershaw is a beast and Kennedy has solid advanced stats. Now that he is getting a few more ground balls to go with the strikeouts, he is a much more viable under pitcher. I still continue to think the absence of Drew will hurt this AZ lineup at some point. They have had some high scoring games in this series so far, but I expect both starting pitchers to roll today. My model also has this one closer to 6.5, so I think there is a bit of value here on the under with a score of 8 required to beat us. On both of these games I am splitting my stake between 7.5 with heavy juice and 7 with no juice. Even though I reduce my odds of cashing, I would rather reduce my risk because I think both of these plays safely stay under the posted totals and am staking 2x on each of them. Good luck.

Play #3

Seattle/LAA under (6.5) 1x (Locked)

Maybe this is one of those game that looks obvious under and goes over, however, sometimes the easy play is also the winning play. Santana is pitching great and even though he threw over 120 pitches in his last outting, I don't expect any ill-effects. Santana's advanced stats are solid and I see nothing in his history against this lineup to scare me off this play. On the other side, we have Kind Felix who is always capable of having no-hit stuff. These two teams have played to two straight unders and I think we make it three straight for 1x. Good luck.

Added to Play #2 0.50x for total of 2.5x Dodgers/Diamondbacks under (1x under (7.5)(-120) and 1.5x under (7)(+100))

I do have this one rated a little higher than the Brewers under, so I'm going to reflect that with a 0.50x larger stake. GL.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/7/11

Play #1

Milwaukee/Houston under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
(7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

Greinke has been underpriced all year because of some tough luck defense and not-so-good standard stats. However, his defense independent stats have always been great. Now that his standard stats are catching up, we aren't getting as much value. This total would have opened at 8 runs a month ago, but now we see 7.5. I still think we see some value as my model has this one closer to 6.5. Because of all the runs the Brewers and Astros scored this series so far, you are going to see the majority of bets on the over. However, we know better. Norris is by far the Astros best pitcher and I am not worried about his blister. He has solid advanced stats and has pitched very well against this Brewers lineup in the past. I expect the Brewers to go back to the team that struggles offensively on the road against Norris today. We have an ump with no lean but a 63.1% strike rate and r/p/gm average just over 8.

Play #2

Dodgers/Diamondbacks under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
(7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

Kershaw is a beast and Kennedy has solid advanced stats. Now that he is getting a few more ground balls to go with the strikeouts, he is a much more viable under pitcher. I still continue to think the absence of Drew will hurt this AZ lineup at some point. They have had some high scoring games in this series so far, but I expect both starting pitchers to roll today. My model also has this one closer to 6.5, so I think there is a bit of value here on the under with a score of 8 required to beat us. On both of these games I am splitting my stake between 7.5 with heavy juice and 7 with no juice. Even though I reduce my odds of cashing, I would rather reduce my risk because I think both of these plays safely stay under the posted totals and am staking 2x on each of them. Good luck.

Play #3

Seattle/LAA under (6.5) 1x (Locked)

Maybe this is one of those game that looks obvious under and goes over, however, sometimes the easy play is also the winning play. Santana is pitching great and even though he threw over 120 pitches in his last outting, I don't expect any ill-effects. Santana's advanced stats are solid and I see nothing in his history against this lineup to scare me off this play. On the other side, we have Kind Felix who is always capable of having no-hit stuff. These two teams have played to two straight unders and I think we make it three straight for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Padres ML (-111) 1x (Locked)

I see no reason to think the Pirates losing streak stops today. Latos dominates Correia by more than 1 point in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Latos has the strikeout ability sorely missing from Correia's game, with a similar ability to get ground balls. Plus, Correia has been scheduled for a regression all year as his early season success could not continue according to his stats. I think we see the Pirates continue to struggle today and I'm rolling with the Padres for 1x. Good luck.

[shocktopme]

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You answered my question before I could ask....Still go with Dodgers/D bags with line dropping to 7.....Thanx pal I'm on it!!Good luck today!!!!

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/7/11

Play #1

Milwaukee/Houston under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
(7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

Greinke has been underpriced all year because of some tough luck defense and not-so-good standard stats. However, his defense independent stats have always been great. Now that his standard stats are catching up, we aren't getting as much value. This total would have opened at 8 runs a month ago, but now we see 7.5. I still think we see some value as my model has this one closer to 6.5. Because of all the runs the Brewers and Astros scored this series so far, you are going to see the majority of bets on the over. However, we know better. Norris is by far the Astros best pitcher and I am not worried about his blister. He has solid advanced stats and has pitched very well against this Brewers lineup in the past. I expect the Brewers to go back to the team that struggles offensively on the road against Norris today. We have an ump with no lean but a 63.1% strike rate and r/p/gm average just over 8.

Play #2

Dodgers/Diamondbacks under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
(7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

Kershaw is a beast and Kennedy has solid advanced stats. Now that he is getting a few more ground balls to go with the strikeouts, he is a much more viable under pitcher. I still continue to think the absence of Drew will hurt this AZ lineup at some point. They have had some high scoring games in this series so far, but I expect both starting pitchers to roll today. My model also has this one closer to 6.5, so I think there is a bit of value here on the under with a score of 8 required to beat us. On both of these games I am splitting my stake between 7.5 with heavy juice and 7 with no juice. Even though I reduce my odds of cashing, I would rather reduce my risk because I think both of these plays safely stay under the posted totals and am staking 2x on each of them. Good luck.

Play #3

Seattle/LAA under (6.5) 1x (Locked)

Maybe this is one of those game that looks obvious under and goes over, however, sometimes the easy play is also the winning play. Santana is pitching great and even though he threw over 120 pitches in his last outting, I don't expect any ill-effects. Santana's advanced stats are solid and I see nothing in his history against this lineup to scare me off this play. On the other side, we have Kind Felix who is always capable of having no-hit stuff. These two teams have played to two straight unders and I think we make it three straight for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Padres ML (-111) 1x (Locked)

I see no reason to think the Pirates losing streak stops today. Latos dominates Correia by more than 1 point in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Latos has the strikeout ability sorely missing from Correia's game, with a similar ability to get ground balls. Plus, Correia has been scheduled for a regression all year as his early season success could not continue according to his stats. I think we see the Pirates continue to struggle today and I'm rolling with the Padres for 1x. Good luck.

That is the card so far. I also really like the Cardinals and Toronto for the early games. However, late line movement on the Cards is not promising and Simon poses a problem for Toronto despite Baltimore's struggles against lefties. Perhaps we put a small action parlay on these two...we'll see.

[BigDan]

That is the card so far. I also really like the Cardinals and Toronto for the early games. However, late line movement on the Cards is not promising and Simon poses a problem for Toronto despite Baltimore's struggles against lefties. Perhaps we put a small action parlay on these two...we'll see.

not really commenting as much on what i think the outcome will be here as much as a general statement but trust me i never worry about "rlm" against the Cards, lot of times my fav plays on them are when "sharps" drive the price down to nice value on stl.


GL today

[Redscot]

Man, as I have shared in the past my local is pretty lazy moving his lines and prone to mistakes. Good thing is he honors his mistakes, I need to take advantage when he messes up because he generally charges a little higher juice than the going rate.

So, I am looking at his lines now and he has cubs o/u ff at 4 1/2. What sort of number are you seeing for that with your books out there?

Thanks

[Love The Action]

I'm getting 5.5 (-120) and (5.5) (-110). Looks like a slow move to me...good luck if you play it.

[BigDan]

Man, as I have shared in the past my local is pretty lazy moving his lines and prone to mistakes. Good thing is he honors his mistakes, I need to take advantage when he messes up because he generally charges a little higher juice than the going rate.

So, I am looking at his lines now and he has cubs o/u ff at 4 1/2. What sort of number are you seeing for that with your books out there?

Thanks

that is a really good number bro. i would play it on principal alone as ov is a juiced 5.5.

[Redscot]

Thanks bud, feel like I gotta throw something on it, a full run in ff is nothing to sniff at.

[Love The Action]

Still debating whether to take the Oakland/TB under again....I expect Cahill to pitch much better than last time out as he has a solid history of bouncing back after poor performances.

[Love The Action]

Edit...local put Cards back on board

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/7/11

Play #1

Milwaukee/Houston under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
(7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

Greinke has been underpriced all year because of some tough luck defense and not-so-good standard stats. However, his defense independent stats have always been great. Now that his standard stats are catching up, we aren't getting as much value. This total would have opened at 8 runs a month ago, but now we see 7.5. I still think we see some value as my model has this one closer to 6.5. Because of all the runs the Brewers and Astros scored this series so far, you are going to see the majority of bets on the over. However, we know better. Norris is by far the Astros best pitcher and I am not worried about his blister. He has solid advanced stats and has pitched very well against this Brewers lineup in the past. I expect the Brewers to go back to the team that struggles offensively on the road against Norris today. We have an ump with no lean but a 63.1% strike rate and r/p/gm average just over 8.

Play #2

Dodgers/Diamondbacks under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
(7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

Kershaw is a beast and Kennedy has solid advanced stats. Now that he is getting a few more ground balls to go with the strikeouts, he is a much more viable under pitcher. I still continue to think the absence of Drew will hurt this AZ lineup at some point. They have had some high scoring games in this series so far, but I expect both starting pitchers to roll today. My model also has this one closer to 6.5, so I think there is a bit of value here on the under with a score of 8 required to beat us. On both of these games I am splitting my stake between 7.5 with heavy juice and 7 with no juice. Even though I reduce my odds of cashing, I would rather reduce my risk because I think both of these plays safely stay under the posted totals and am staking 2x on each of them. Good luck.

Play #3

Seattle/LAA under (6.5) 1x (Locked)

Maybe this is one of those game that looks obvious under and goes over, however, sometimes the easy play is also the winning play. Santana is pitching great and even though he threw over 120 pitches in his last outting, I don't expect any ill-effects. Santana's advanced stats are solid and I see nothing in his history against this lineup to scare me off this play. On the other side, we have Kind Felix who is always capable of having no-hit stuff. These two teams have played to two straight unders and I think we make it three straight for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Padres ML (-111) 1x (Locked)

I see no reason to think the Pirates losing streak stops today. Latos dominates Correia by more than 1 point in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Latos has the strikeout ability sorely missing from Correia's game, with a similar ability to get ground balls. Plus, Correia has been scheduled for a regression all year as his early season success could not continue according to his stats. I think we see the Pirates continue to struggle today and I'm rolling with the Padres for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Cardinals ML (-120) 0.50x (Locked)

I'm going to take the rain delay action with the Red-Birds here for 0.50x. At the end of the day, even with Vazquez's recent hot streak, Garcia still has a 1pt or more advantage over him in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Plus, with Vazquez having a GB/FB under 1 as compared to Garcia's near 2, I love the advantage having the better ground ball pitcher. Garcia has a better K%, so I don't see any reason to back Vazquez here. Ramirez and Infante are out and Berkman is playing, so I give the clear advantage to the Cards lineup today. Good luck.

[showtiime]

tailed you on that brewers/hou under.

brewers 2 runs in the first inning

[GGALLERT]

Point?

tailed you on that brewers/hou under.

brewers 2 runs in the first inning

Gonna have a heart attack early counting beans all day. Let the games play out. You are reading oen the most consistant cappers alive. I've read alot and he knows his chit.

LTA brush the shoudlers off.

[Love The Action]

tailed you on that brewers/hou under.

brewers 2 runs in the first inning

Sorry dude...hope you took some of the winners too...

[Love The Action]

Gonna have a heart attack early counting beans all day. Let the games play out. You are reading oen the most consistant cappers alive. I've read alot and he knows his chit.

LTA brush the shoudlers off.

No worries GG...

How is the new baby?

[Love The Action]

Back from a family BBQ...I'll update the final records for the week in a minute. We've had two profitable weeks back to back now and get the train back on track after a July of treading water. Too bad we lost that Brewers game though...Norris just pitched poorly with 2 outs and runners in scoring position...

[Redscot]

Back from a family BBQ...I'll update the final records for the week in a minute. We've had two profitable weeks back to back now and get the train back on track after a July of treading water. Too bad we lost that Brewers game though...Norris just pitched poorly with 2 outs and runners in scoring position...

Norris showed some green today. Left the ball up and in the middle with runners on, deadly combo. I was really disappointed in his effort today.

Train is rolling in the right direction though, books are sharp, it ain't easy staying in the black consistently.

Gonna throw a little something on the Tribe tonight, I hit the Cubs FF rather hard today and have a bit of money to burn. May go Yanks under too.

Have a nice evening LTA, your efforts are always appreciated.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/7/11

4 - 1 = +1.3x

Another grind it out day...could have been a monster had we hit our 2x play on the Brewers under or we didn't get that later homer in the Dodgers game to cost 1.5x on the push. Nevertheless, we'll take a +1.3x day every time.

MLB Season 2011

327 - 292 = +32.595x

Back-to-back profitable weeks now and 10 out of the 15 days in the black. We are steadily putting that rough July behind us. For anyone that cares, I lean to Indians ML and Yanks/Red Sox under. Good luck for anyone playing the Sunday night games. I will have a play for Monday posted soon.

[shocktopme]

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Nice day bud!!!..........only to be followed up by our fav. show!!!!!!!!!!Rock on LTA!!!!!

[Love The Action]

Nice day bud!!!..........only to be followed up by our fav. show!!!!!!!!!!Rock on LTA!!!!!

[ManBearPig]

Haven't been around lately but it looks like you're having fun over here. Keep it up

[GoggsViggs]

Way to go bro! I took day off to take my daughter to beach. Be back tmr for new week. GL to you and Redscot.

[Redscot]

Way to go bro! I took day off to take my daughter to beach. Be back tmr for new week. GL to you and Redscot.

A day well spent my friend! Gotta cherish the Fam.

[pacocn]

fta, nice work man, keep it going

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/8/11

Play #1

Padres ML (-105) 1.5x (Locked)

We have a pretty huge disparity in starting pitching in this one that was hit right at the open as shown by the ten cent increase in price from the open at Pinny and Greek. Stauffer dominates Pelfrey by 1 pt or more in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Stauffer has a better K% 17% to 12% and a much better GB/FB of 2.13 to 1.21 which shows he has the better ability to get both strikeouts and groundballs. With an advantage in WAR of 2.3 to 0.1, we have a clear advantage with Stauffer. The Mets are now most likely going to be without Reyes and Murphy for Monday's game. For a lineup already struggling, the loss of Reyes and Murphy hurts. The Padres are an offensively-challenged team but are hitting better of late. Plus, the majority of the Mets lineup has never faced Stauffer other than a handful of guys and that was only a few at-bats each. This gives Stauffer the advantage as the pitcher generally has an edge when facing a lineup for the first time before adjustments can be made. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Padres ML for 1.5x. Good luck.

[God1]

Padres are without their best hitter too in Headley(or 2nd best if you think Guzman will keep this up). Where is the game mispriced? -105 is giving the padres almost a 30 cent advantage, it seems to me thats about the extent of the pitching disparity. Which would mean you are putting the Mets/Padres lineups on equal footing? There's some value in the Padres base stealing against Pelfrey's inability to catch them, Maybe it translates to an extra SB a game, i don't know what thats worth maybe 3 cents. Stauffer gets alot of value from his GB% and that's alot less relevant in a park that suppresses home runs as much as any park in baseball. What part is being mispriced?

[Redscot]

Padres are without their best hitter too in Headley(or 2nd best if you think Guzman will keep this up). Where is the game mispriced? -105 is giving the padres almost a 30 cent advantage, it seems to me thats about the extent of the pitching disparity. Which would mean you are putting the Mets/Padres lineups on equal footing? There's some value in the Padres base stealing against Pelfrey's inability to catch them, Maybe it translates to an extra SB a game, i don't know what thats worth maybe 3 cents. Stauffer gets alot of value from his GB% and that's alot less relevant in a park that suppresses home runs as much as any park in baseball. What part is being mispriced?

And from a previous episode from our very own humble "God".

Padres look good tomorrow, line already got bet up 7 cents i'm not sure if there's any value left. Pelfrey is one of the worst in the league with a 10% caught stealing rate and Padres steal more than anyone in baseball

Why does it always have to be from the negative perspective G1? I think there are enough people around here willing to give you your props and see your point of view.

Tough way to see the world bro, GL with that.

[God1]

And from a previous episode from our very own humble "God".

Padres look good tomorrow, line already got bet up 7 cents i'm not sure if there's any value left. Pelfrey is one of the worst in the league with a 10% caught stealing rate and Padres steal more than anyone in baseball

Why does it always have to be from the negative perspective G1? I think there are enough people around here willing to give you your props and see your point of view.

Tough way to see the world bro, GL with that.

Whoa did you not catch the key line in there "I'm not sure if there's any value left" after the 7 cent move. This bet is being made at -105, I liked them at the open of +104 huge difference

[Love The Action]

Padres are without their best hitter too in Headley(or 2nd best if you think Guzman will keep this up). Where is the game mispriced? -105 is giving the padres almost a 30 cent advantage, it seems to me thats about the extent of the pitching disparity. Which would mean you are putting the Mets/Padres lineups on equal footing? There's some value in the Padres base stealing against Pelfrey's inability to catch them, Maybe it translates to an extra SB a game, i don't know what thats worth maybe 3 cents. Stauffer gets alot of value from his GB% and that's alot less relevant in a park that suppresses home runs as much as any park in baseball. What part is being mispriced?

I never said it was mispriced at -105...but I did note that the price has risen on the Padres by ten cents since opening at both Pinny and Greek indicating a market correction from early error. Unfortunately, I was not able to get on board prior to such correction because one my locals opened up at -105 and the other at -108. I don't bet with offshore books because of the numerous risks as a US citizen so that limits my ability to be early openers. However, my model has this one at -110, so there still is a little value left for me at -105. In addition, there are some situational angles I also like here which make this an attractive play for me. I think this one goes up around that -110 range by close, so I locked it in now.

[God1]

Redscot, you interpreted that paragraph as me saying he's wrong for betting the Padres, I never said that. I was just asking where he thought the mispricing was

[Redscot]

Whoa did you not catch the key line in there "I'm not sure if there's any value left" after the 7 cent move. This bet is being made at -105, I liked them at the open of +104 huge difference

Gotcha. I have always said you are a sharp dude G1, just too negative bro. GL .