Angels ML is my pick of the day with their ace weaver on the mound.
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Over mets/pinny juiced the over to -208Comment -
I like Milwaukee tonight. It's a good team and it plays well at home.Comment -
There is a new one up market sizes and business model.......this trader is scared shitless...to say the wrong thing
watch how he " hedges' on every responseComment -
Verlander is 2-1 vs Cws
Det Ml -146 looks solid with Verlander.
Tigers are 7-1 in Verlanders last 8 starts vs. White Sox.
Tigers are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Chicago.
Verlander looking for revenge for his lost to Chicago on July 15.Comment -
Hurry back and help us LTA....
I like chicago over brewers.
Dempster dominates brewers in his career.
upset, upset
also fade oakland. TB TB Tuberculosis
until LTA comes back, we are all clowns. LOLLast edited by NBA_Brosuf; 07-26-11, 07:07 PM.Comment -
I will have one play...maybe two...just waiting fo lineups...back in a few...Comment -
MLB 7/26/11
Play #1
AZ/SD over (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)
Stayed late at work to cap the games so I need to get home, but I will say this. Much like last nights over play, we have two pitchers with good ERA and WHIPs, but poor advanced stats which show these pitchers are not as good as they appear to be. Plus, both teams have hit these pitchers and the padres are much better against lefties. Maybin is playing and the wind is blowing out softly at 8 mph. We have solid rlm favoring the over and I agree for 1x. May also play Dodgers on the -1RL, but am concerned about Chacins solid history versus the dodgers. I will post if I play it. Good luck!Comment -
Like the play LTA. I was all over the Pitt/Atl over for much the same reasons, especially Karstens (he has lived blessed this year, check out that babip!). Also put a play on the Stros/Cards over. Both have bad line-up histories, bad momentum last 3 and each pitch better reverse in terms of home away.
Wish I had gotten in to add to the discussion here but hectic day. Oh, also had the Jays small on the r/l, Balty always finds a way to F me.
I am most likely going Dodgers -1, Can't ignore Chacin's road stats and his ridiculous babip numbers too. He has been fortunate. Of the Dodger's big 3, Loney and Ethier have actually hit him well, Kemp being the exception.
On the other side Kershaw owns lefties, and is an ace, operating in the spacious home stadium.
Anything can happen as we know, but looks like good value to me.
BOL on all your plays man, and to all others in the thread.
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Like the play LT gl!!Comment -
Nice hit. However, I think it was Matchbook that juiced it at -208...but that was at a total of 7 right before game time. The total opened at 8.5, then went down to 8 and then, only at Matchbook, it went down to 7 with -208 juice. Based on that line movement, which dropped the total from it's open, it seems to me that the books were protecting against the under. I understand that -208 juice is crazy on the over, but it was at 7 not at it's opening number of 8.5. Therefore, I don't understand how heavy juice on a lower number than the opener shows a lean to the over by Matchbook.
Can you help me out with this one? What am I missing? Thanks.Comment -
I like that Dodgers play, but I just couldn't pull the trigger. First, because I was on the road and second because I was scared off of Chacin's history against the Dodgers. Although, you make a rather compelling argument in favor of the Dodgers (.227 BABIP ?!?), I just didn't want to pull over in order to lock in the play or get into an accident over itLike the play LTA. I was all over the Pitt/Atl over for much the same reasons, especially Karstens (he has lived blessed this year, check out that babip!). Also put a play on the Stros/Cards over. Both have bad line-up histories, bad momentum last 3 and each pitch better reverse in terms of home away.
Wish I had gotten in to add to the discussion here but hectic day. Oh, also had the Jays small on the r/l, Balty always finds a way to F me.
I am most likely going Dodgers -1, Can't ignore Chacin's road stats and his ridiculous babip numbers too. He has been fortunate. Of the Dodger's big 3, Loney and Ethier have actually hit him well, Kemp being the exception.
On the other side Kershaw owns lefties, and is an ace, operating in the spacious home stadium.
Anything can happen as we know, but looks like good value to me.
BOL on all your plays man, and to all others in the thread.
Good luck...great analysis on the Dodgers so I hope you cash!
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ANNOUNCEMENT - ML Parlays
You guys all know I do not believe parlays to be a profitable wager over the long term and generally do not play parlays.
However, the one exception is late season baseball when ML parlays can be profitable because of (1) the playoff races and (2) the crappy teams just don't care anymore. Therefore, don't be surprised or hate on me if I start picking some 2 or even 3 team ML faves parlay plays over these final months of the season. I think there is some profit to be made as long as we are very selective. Speaking of which, don't be surprised if we start being much more selective and playing less plays per day moving forward. GL.Comment -
Yep...
Google "Money Management for the Year Round Professional Sports Handicapper PDF" and there is a plethora of money management schemes with detailed examples of how to employ them. This includes the 1/8 system and about 9 others. Let me know your thoughts on the PDF.
I recommend everyone do this....if nothing else, but to learn some interesting options for different wager possibilities.
Thanks MBP...good luck on all your plays (I should be back to WNBA on Thursday, time permitting). How did you do today?Comment -
Dodgers ML looking great...nice call Redscot!
AZ/SD over needs four more runs to win and 3 to push. Score is 4-0 in the bottom of the sixth...can't believe SD won't get a couple at least before this is said and done. Would love a 6-2 final....
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Shit I had a this whole diatribe written out and then I hit the back button...so the hell with that here's a condensed version.
Yes I have the PDF and do think it's legit if you can stick to the principles as there are a couple in there worth looking at...or come up with some variations of your own. I've been pondering thinking of playing the 2-6 straight bet system with WNBA, but not sure yet.
WNBA was decent today. I'm starting to see some patterns and have actually been doing quite well with half plays at least based on the numbers I've been generating. I've got a few situations I've been tracking that have done quite well, this includes the situation I described to you recently. I think the lines are tighter and the value isn't always there, but there are still some good plays to be had if you're savy enough. I'm just using this year to build for next year. See you over there .Comment -
MLB Recap 7/26/11
0 - 0 - 1 = Push
MLB 2011 Season
295 - 272 = +20.44x
Those who got on this over early at 6.5 cashed. However, we get stuck with the push because of poor situational hitting on the part of the Padres. Oh well, better than a loss and we move on . Good luck on Wednesday! My first pick of tomorrow's card is coming up right now. King Felix = Streak Buster!Comment -
LT what do u think about Angels/Indians over8 tomorrowComment -
I guess this ATL game is never going to endComment -
MLB 7/27/11
Play #1
Seattle ML (+138) 1x (Locked)
Felix Hernandez v. Phil Hughes - I made a similar type value play on Saturday when I lost playing the Padres and Latos over Phillies and Kendrick. However, with this one, I think we cash with this value play despite the "streak." I just think there is too much value here at +138 for Hernandez facing off against Hughes when you consider the following:
- Hernandez's dominance versus Hughes' nature as a gascan - Whether on the road or at home, against lefties or righties, Hernandez dominates this pitching matchup in every category. Hernadez has a FIP of 3.12, xFIP of 3.12, tERA of 3.53 and SIERA of 3.16. Hughes sports a FIP of 6.26, xFIP of 5.91, tERA of 6.80 and SIERA of 5.58. That comes out to a almost 2-1 advantage in favor of Hernandez when it comes to their defense independent pitching stats. When you compare Hernadez's WHIP of 1.2 to Hughes' 1.95, Hernadez's K% of 22.8% to Hughes' 10.1%, Hernadez's BABIP of .299 to Hughes' .344, Hernadez's LOB% 72% to Hughes' 56.5% and Hernadez's GB/FB of 1.62 to Hughes' 0.54, it is unequivocally clear that Hughes does not belong pitching off the same mound as Hernandez, and that Hernandez should dominate this matchup.
- Situational Angle - Wednesday's game is an early get-away game with both teams' having the day off on Thursday. Therefore, Girardi will most likely rest a few of his regulars in order to get them two days off in a row and rest their veteran bodies for the big playoff push. On the other side, the Mariners are desperate for a win and will not rest anyone. Moreover, they will be motivated to the end the streak, end it against the Yankess and end it going into the break. This is a classic letdown spot for the Yankees and the M's have a situational edge in this one.
- Lineups v. SP's - Hernandez has had success against the Yankees, while Hughes has not pitched well against Seattle. Lifetime against the Yankees, Hernandez has a 2.98 ERA, with a 1.34 WHIP, going 5-3 and limiting them to a .231 (.245 BA against the current team). These are solid numbers compared to Hughes, whose lifetime numbers against Seattle are at around 1 point higher in ERA and 20 points in BA.
- Hughes has gotten shelled this year with an ERA over 12 at home.
- Seattle is actually scoring a little more lately. In their last 7 games, Seattle has scored 3,8,1,4,5,6,5 runs. That is a significant improvement of the 1 run they were averaging in the beginning of their losing streak. I think Seattle will need 4 to win tomorrow and I think they get it off Hughes.
- Due Factor - I do not put a great deal of credence or weight on this factor, but Seattle will win sooner or later and this pitching matchup presents the best opportunity and percentage of victory.
- Early money on Seattle - there has been a ten cent price drop on Seattle from +146 to +136 at Pinny and five cents at Greek from +142 to +137. Generally, early money is sharper than most.
At the end of the day, it is certainly possible that Seattle loses tomorrow and keeps the losing streak going. However, I think the situational angles with the getaway scenario leading to a letdown effort from the Yanks, when combined with the huge advantage in starting pitching, all at a price of +138, is too good to pass up. I'm rolling with Seattle at +138 for 1x in this spot. Good luck.Last edited by Love The Action; 07-27-11, 01:12 AM.Comment -
PASS for me. I think it's too hard to take an Indians over right now because so many of their best hitters are hurt. Huff pitched well in his first start of the year last week (even though his numbers against the Angels lineup from his starts over the last two years are not good). Ervin Santana has been pitching superbly not giving up more than 3 runs in his last 7 starts. Even though the ump is 11-6 o/u coming into the game, he has a 64.1% which shows he calls a lot of strikes and his over numbers are probably just an anomaly. To me, I just don't think the Indians score enough runs to get it done and Huff is an unknown (he could pitch another gem or fall apart).
Just my opinion though...good luck with whatever you choose.
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LT how do you think the 19 inning game is going to affect the game tomorrow? I'm thinking of playing the under.Comment -
I'm probably passing. Both pitchers are going through a bit of a regression adjustment recently and the bullpens will be exhausted. Both managers will be forced to use the SP's longer than normal which could result in more runs than normal. Plus, Bucknor is the ump and has an over lean with a low strike rate. However, Hanson could come out and dominate and that would not surprise me. Good luck if you play it!
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I believe Jurrjens is going for ATL tonight.Comment -
bol fta
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Wow, funky card today. 7-8 teams in 150+ range. Gotta figure at least 3 of them pull it out, or will it be a favorite bonanza.
At first glance that Pitt line seems quite high...seems like an anything can happen game after last night, Pitt isn't gonna roll over and Atlanta lost McCann and has been susceptible to lefties. Not saying Pitt's the play, just seems like a smelly line imo.
GL today all, nice to have a thread to kick thoughts around without the hate-parade.
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