LTA's MLB Plays

[God1]

I don't know if I would go that far, but I do agree far better stats to gauge pitching exist now.

You would be wrong then

[No coincidences]

You're making the assumption that I'm judging Coleman based on his ERA, which I'm not.

I'm telling you what I see with my own two eyes. Is he a better pitcher than his surface stats would indicate? Of course. Has he been "dominating for the last three months"? Come on.

You might want to watch a game now and again. Hard to listen to someone who says asinine things like this. I'd be willing to bet you haven't watched a game Coleman has pitched in all season long -- just going by what advanced stats somehow, in your book at least, describe as a "dominant" pitcher.

[Love The Action]

if pinny is offering -120 that means the true line is about -116 at which point a 6 cent difference I guess you could take into account your opinion. If the true pinny line is -120 and you can get -110 I would bet without a moment's hesitation. As much faith as I have in my ability to price a game correctly, the ability to bet 10 cents ahead of the true line will be printing money. The closer is what counts but any given point in time the pinnacle true line is still the best idea of the probable outcome. And if you are betting 10 cents of ahead of the true line you will be beating the closer very often

The ability to bet 10 cents ahead of the currently available Pinny line (assuming not the closing line), does not take into account possible influx of money and subsequent line shift against your position or a possible move with your position which betters your price at close.

With that said, if you blindly jumped on such value, you would have a ten cent head start before feeling any impact of such moves which would arguably give you enough time to react with a subsequent bet. However, this all assumes you can get such lines that just give away all this value in comparison to Pinny lines. At this point, most books just follow Pinny's lead and adjust their lines accordingly. I can't really imagine this situation arising on a consistent basis.

Except maybe for Red's Book...

[God1]

You're making the assumption that I'm judging Coleman based on his ERA, which I'm not.

I'm telling you what I see with my own two eyes. Is he a better pitcher than his surface stats would indicate? Of course. Has he been "dominating for the last three months"? Come on.

You might want to watch a game now and again. Hard to listen to someone who says asinine things like this. I'd be willing to bet you haven't watched a game Coleman has pitched in all season long -- just going by what advanced stats somehow, in your book at least, describe as a "dominant" pitcher.

That dominant pitcher won me quite a bit tonight with his 2 hitter on the ML and under

If you don't realize how good he has been since july you just don't know what his advanced stats are its that simple

[God1]

The ability to bet 10 cents ahead of the currently available Pinny line (assuming not the closing line), does not take into account possible influx of money and subsequent line shift against your position or a possible move with your position which betters your price at close.

With that said, if you blindly jumped on such value, you would have a ten cent head start before feeling any impact of such moves which would arguably give you enough time to react with a subsequent bet. However, this all assumes you can get such lines that just giving away all the value in comparison to Pinny. At this point, most books just follow Pinny's lead and adjust their lines accordingly. I can't really imagine this situation arising on a consistent basis.

Except maybe for Red's Book...

Redscot has a book that moves lines extremely slow and allows him to be 10 cents ahead of the pinnacle true line pretty often, that's where this discussion arose from

[No coincidences]

That dominant pitcher won me quite a bit tonight with his 2 hitter on the ML and under

If you don't realize how good he has been since july you just don't know what his advanced stats are its that simple

There is no in between with you is there?

HE'S NOT A "DOMINANT PITCHER." PERIOD. Why can you not just say he's much better than his statistics may indicate and leave it at that?Hell, Casey Coleman himself would laugh in your face. If he was a "dominant pitcher," he wouldn't be bouncing back and forth from Triple-A for a team in desperate need of pitching.
Again, try actually watching a game sometime.

[Redscot]

The ability to bet 10 cents ahead of the currently available Pinny line (assuming not the closing line), does not take into account possible influx of money and subsequent line shift against your position or a possible move with your position which betters your price at close.

With that said, if you blindly jumped on such value, you would have a ten cent head start before feeling any impact of such moves which would arguably give you enough time to react with a subsequent bet. However, this all assumes you can get such lines that just give away all this value in comparison to Pinny lines. At this point, most books just follow Pinny's lead and adjust their lines accordingly. I can't really imagine this situation arising on a consistent basis.

Except maybe for Red's Book...

[God1]

There is no in between with you is there?

HE'S NOT A "DOMINANT PITCHER." PERIOD. Why can you not just say he's much better than his statistics may indicate and leave it at that?Hell, Casey Coleman himself would laugh in your face. If he was a "dominant pitcher," he wouldn't be bouncing back and forth from Triple-A for a team in desperate need of pitching.
Again, try actually watching a game sometime.

You still don't even know what I'm referencing to call him dominant, that's the most hilarious part. One day maybe you'll understand and hope to become a break even baseball bettor, until then

[No coincidences]

You still don't even know what I'm referencing to call him dominant, that's the most hilarious part. One day maybe you'll understand and hope to become a break even baseball bettor, until then

Up 7 units this year now, and was in the black last season as well. Thanks for playing.

Apparently you've been ignoring my posted plays over the past two weeks.

Honest question: do you watch games?

[kobstopa]

MLB card is final at the above two plays.

Lean under in the NFL game, but probably not enough to play it. Good luck tonight!

What happen to you ? we have two WNBA playoff games decider today.

[Love The Action]

True, and I have beat the closer like 90% over the last 2 weeks. The question is when to go in bigger. You yourself have plays that are "big", so obviously not all bets are created equal. So, if the given is that I am gonna beat the closer, when would it be appropriate to go bigger?

The bigger the edge, the bigger the bet should be. But I would also be betting bigger on moneylines because it far more efficient than the totals market which is of extreme importance when arbing

Exactly...bigger the edge (+ev), the bigger the bet.

As far as betting bigger on moneylines than totals...please explain why you think the efficiency of the market should necessarily affect the perceived edge in your play.

I understand if you are going to arb, you make your money finding those 20 cent or more moneyline moves on a daily basis. In such case, max bets are not only warranted, but needed to maximize your BR. However, if I am not specifically looking to arb, why would the inefficiency of the market affect the edge which I have already calculated?

Are you basing that statement on the potential for volatility/variance involved in the totals market?

[God1]

Up 7 units this year now, and was in the black last season as well. Thanks for playing.

Apparently you've been ignoring my posted plays over the past two weeks.

Of course I've been ignoring your plays, I'm not looking to lose to the vig

Honest question: do you watch games?

Nope I just happened to calling Matusz' pitch location by guessing

Coleman throws a 2 hitter against the Brewers results speak bud

[Redscot]

Redscot has a book that moves lines extremely slow and allows him to be 10 cents ahead of the pinnacle true line pretty often, that's where this discussion arose from

Yup, and I do love butting heads with G1, but in fairness his cut and dried approach to these lines has been a BIG help to me (I do have a unique situation with my current book though). So much so, I regret I may have to fly him and his pet monkey (can't imagine a wife tolerating him) down to the DR one day in thanks.

Seriously though, G1 has helped me with betting a good deal (and LTA immensely too), but if we had to pick teams to play on the field I would smoke him .

[Blackroc78]

MLB 9/19/11

Play #1

Angels/Blue Jays under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to hit 8 before close. I have it at 7.8, but I think that's enough to play this one. Romero is is finally coming into his own and has been very consistent in the second half of the season. His dominance of the Angels lineup in the past, also helps support this play. On the other side, we have Williams going for the Angels in his comeback bid. He has actually pitched since he was given the opportunity a month ago as evidenced by a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid 3's. This is comparable to Romero's full season numbers. With the Blue Jays unfamiliar with what Williams has to bring, I think he has the edge and so do we. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Thank You!

[God1]

Exactly...bigger the edge (+ev), the bigger the bet.

As far as betting bigger on moneylines than totals...please explain why you think the efficiency of the market should necessarily affect the perceived edge in your play.

Because a more efficient market is going to produce a more accurate price

I understand if you are going to arb, you make your money finding those 20 cent or more moneyline moves on a daily basis. In such case, max bets are not only warranted, but needed to maximize your BR. However, if I am not specifically looking to arb, why would the inefficiency of the market affect the edge which I have already calculated?

Are you basing that statement on the potential for volatility/variance involved in the totals market?

No I'm saying that because I believe that to be the case based on the results I've seen in databases going back many years

[No coincidences]

Of course I've been ignoring your plays, I'm not looking to lose to the vig

You claim I'm not a break-even baseball bettor -- must just be getting very lucky in this sport, football and basketball where I actually, you know, keep track of my plays and track my record. Feel free to observe or try it yourself.

Coleman throws a 2 hitter against the Brewers results speak bud

That's one start. You always get pissed when I isolate your losses, yet you isolate one start and I'm supposed to suddenly believe he's a dominant pitcher?

[No coincidences]

Seriously though, G1 has helped me with betting a good deal (and LTA immensely too), but if we had to pick teams to play on the field I would smoke him .

You wouldn't take Casey Coleman with a high draft choice?

[God1]

You claim I'm not a break-even baseball bettor -- must just be getting very lucky in this sport, football and basketball where I actually, you know, keep track of my plays and track my record. Feel free to observe or try it yourself.

There's zero doubt in my mind you are a losing baseball bettor. Basketball and football I'm sure you are too as from what I understand those are more efficient markets but I really could care less. I'm sure if that were the case you wouldn't be betting 20 bucks on games lol

That's one start. You always get pissed when I isolate your losses, yet you isolate one start and I'm supposed to suddenly believe he's a dominant pitcher?

I'm glad you caught the irony because by your standards(not mine) I would be right and you would be wrong and conversely I'm sure you would mention it had he been lit up tonight

[No coincidences]

There's zero doubt in my mind you are a losing baseball bettor. Basketball and football I'm sure you are too as from what I understand those are more efficient markets but I really could care less. I'm sure if that were the case you wouldn't be betting 20 bucks on games lol

Feel free to peruse my threads anytime.

[Love The Action]

ERA is nothing more than a tool to gauge who the dumb money will think is better or worse than they actually are

And this discussion has proven how well it works!

I will leave the dumb monkey comment alone, but ERA is useless.

If anyone out there is trying to "get" what the issue is, I suggest you go to this link and read about the various articles about how to evaluate pitching talent and what advanced metrics you should weight most heavily.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/

[God1]

Feel free to peruse my threads anytime.

twenty...dollars...a....game

[Love The Action]

What happen to you ? we have two WNBA playoff games decider today.

I know...I had to cap part of the NFL card early and I couldn't get to WNBA while I was at work. It's hard to find the time for the woman now that I have NFL, NCAAF and MLB going on. However, I'm planning on getting back to the ladies tomorrow, Wed and Thursday.

What did you take tonight in the Phoenix game?

[Redscot]

I will leave the dumb monkey comment alone, but ERA is useless.

If anyone out there is trying to "get" what the issue is, I suggest you go to this link and read about the various articles about how to evaluate pitching talent and what advanced metrics you should weight most heavily.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/

, This is what evaluating pitching is about. End of the day, you gotta trust your eye too (assuming you can watch enough games).

[Redscot]

I know...I had to cap part of the NFL card early and I couldn't get to WNBA while I was at work. It's hard to find the time for the woman now that I have NFL, NCAAF and MLB going on. However, I'm planning on getting back to the ladies tomorrow, Wed and Thursday.

What did you take tonight in the Phoenix game?

Here I was thinking you were referring to your wife . It does get a grip on ya don't it. Hat's off to you youngsters that can do it, I can't even find the time for college sports.

[No coincidences]

twenty...dollars...a....game

$20 a unit, but that's irrelevant and it's sad you've stooped to this level.

I've said this a million times here before: I have nothing to hide. I have a family and a job and really no interest in jeopardizing either through gambling. That's just my take. Do I kick myself when I have a weekend like I did in college football on Saturday (undefeated, up 16 units -- all in my thread)? A little. But every time I suffer through a bad beat or a bad read on a game, I'm thankful it's just recreational money in play for me.

I do this for fun. It's a hobby and never will be anything more than that. If that bothers you, so be it. I'm not ashamed to be honest about it and why I don't go bigger. But again, my bankroll and/or unit size isn't the point. I win more than I lose in every sport. It's all there for you to see, either in season form or day-by-day.

[God1]

$20 a unit, but that's irrelevant and it's sad you've stooped to this level.

I've said this a million times here before: I have nothing to hide. I have a family and a job and really no interest in jeopardizing either through gambling. That's just my take. Do I kick myself when I have a weekend like I did in college football on Saturday (undefeated, up 16 units -- all in my thread)? A little. But every time I suffer through a bad beat or a bad read on a game, I'm thankful it's just recreational money in play for me.

I do this for fun. It's a hobby and never will be anything more than that. If that bothers you, so be it. I'm not ashamed to be honest about it and why I don't go bigger. But again, my bankroll and/or unit size isn't the point. I win more than I lose in every sport. It's all there for you to see, either in season form or day-by-day.

I'm glad to hear you are not attempting to make real money and are doing it as a hobby. Sometimes you should open your mind that maybe those that do this for profit are actually on to something

[Love The Action]

There is no in between with you is there?

HE'S NOT A "DOMINANT PITCHER." PERIOD. Why can you not just say he's much better than his statistics may indicate and leave it at that?Hell, Casey Coleman himself would laugh in your face. If he was a "dominant pitcher," he wouldn't be bouncing back and forth from Triple-A for a team in desperate need of pitching.
Again, try actually watching a game sometime.

NC...check out this page

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=8270&position=P&season=2011

Then, check out his FIP and xFIP numbers for July, August and September, in relation to his BABIP and K%. What do you see?

[Redscot]

$20 a unit, but that's irrelevant and it's sad you've stooped to this level.

I've said this a million times here before: I have nothing to hide. I have a family and a job and really no interest in jeopardizing either through gambling. That's just my take. Do I kick myself when I have a weekend like I did in college football on Saturday (undefeated, up 16 units -- all in my thread)? A little. But every time I suffer through a bad beat or a bad read on a game, I'm thankful it's just recreational money in play for me.

I do this for fun. It's a hobby and never will be anything more than that. If that bothers you, so be it. I'm not ashamed to be honest about it and why I don't go bigger. But again, my bankroll and/or unit size isn't the point. I win more than I lose in every sport. It's all there for you to see, either in season form or day-by-day.

Pretty much my philosophy. I'm a bit older now and can risk a bit more, but it should be a "profitable" hobby for the most of us. Trying to be big in this thing is a recipe for disaster for 99% +. No shame in the game No Coin, it's all about winning and enjoying the ride.

[No coincidences]

I'm glad to hear you are not attempting to make real money and are doing it as a hobby. Sometimes you should open your mind that maybe those that do this for profit are actually on to something

When did I ever claim otherwise?

[No coincidences]

Pretty much my philosophy. I'm a bit older now and can risk a bit more, but it should be a "profitable" hobby for the most of us. Trying to be big in this thing is a recipe for disaster for 99% +. No shame in the game No Coin, it's all about winning and enjoying the ride.

[Love The Action]

Here I was thinking you were referring to your wife . It does get a grip on ya don't it. Hat's off to you youngsters that can do it, I can't even find the time for college sports.

Nah...I wanted to get back into WNBA for the playoffs, but it's tough trying to find time for that with NFL, NCAAF, MLB, work, family and everything else we all deal with. You know how it is...

[No coincidences]

NC...check out this page

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=8270&position=P&season=2011

Then, check out his FIP and xFIP numbers for July, August and September, in relation to his BABIP and K%. What do you see?

Again, I never claimed he wasn't much better than his surface stats would indicate.

I've seen Casey Coleman pitch all year long. The day I call him a dominant pitcher is the day I turn in my card as an MLB observer of over 30 years. No offense to the number crunchers.

[God1]

Again, I never claimed he wasn't much better than his surface stats would indicate.

I've seen Casey Coleman pitch all year long. The day I call him a dominant pitcher is the day I turn in my card as an MLB observer of over 30 years. No offense to the number crunchers.

What I said was he had been dominant in the last 3 months, not that he is a dominant pitcher. Those xFIP numbers reflect that he has been dominant recently there is zero debate

You will never get anywhere above the "losing to the vig" level of betting if you stick with this mentality bud

[No coincidences]

What I said was he had been dominant in the last 3 months, not that he is a dominant pitcher. Those xFIP numbers reflect that he has been dominant recently there is zero debate

Fine, dominant in the last three months.

I've seen almost every one of those starts. He has not been dominant in any way, shape or form.

[God1]

Fine, dominant in the last three months.

I've seen almost every one of those starts. He has not been dominant in any way, shape or form.

I can't even begin to count the number of times I've said this to you but I'll repeat: "you are just clueless"