LTA's MLB Plays

[God1]

I would be shocked if they opened either of the Balty/BoSox games at 11 or more. I expect them both to open at 10.5.

if I can remember right there have been a few 10.5s in boston this year and a Matusz game at this point would have to be priced higher.

I would be shocked if the braves close anything lower than -110

[hawley]

You would be a brave man taking the under in either Boston game wouldnt you?

[God1]

You would be a brave man taking the under in either Boston game wouldnt you?

What? That's ridiculous. It depends on what the number is. The over will be no more or only marginally more likely to hit than the under

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/19/11

Play #1

Angels/Blue Jays under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to hit 8 before close. I have it at 7.8, but I think that's enough to play this one. Romero is is finally coming into his own and has been very consistent in the second half of the season. His dominance of the Angels lineup in the past, also helps support this play. On the other side, we have Williams going for the Angels in his comeback bid. He has actually pitched since he was given the opportunity a month ago as evidenced by a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid 3's. This is comparable to Romero's full season numbers. With the Blue Jays unfamiliar with what Williams has to bring, I think he has the edge and so do we. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres ML (+117) 1x (Locked)

I would have liked to get this one at +120, but we're still getting over 7 cents in value from my number of +109. I like Millwood, but Luebke has the far better advanced stats and will actually be facing the weaker lineup without CarGo, Helton or Tulo. Plus, Giambi should be on the bench because Luebke is also a lefty. I expect a Rockies lineup of Young, Fowler, Ellis, Miller, Kousmanoff, Pacheco, Smith, Rosario and Field (Reynolds, Nelson and Giambi off the bench with a few others). Without the punch that was supplied by the Rox's best hitters, I think we have a nice chance for the Padres to come out and steal one in Colorado. I'm rolling with the Padres ML for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

if I can remember right there have been a few 10.5s in boston this year and a Matusz game at this point would have to be priced higher.

I would be shocked if the braves close anything lower than -110

I would expect Weilland to get priced around the same as Matusz. We'll see. I will be interested to see the opener.

[fitguy67]

I agree with NC and Allure. "Value" is a graspable concept...no pompous condescension required. Subjectively estimate an "actual" winning percentage of an event...and if it outstrips the implied break-even winning percentage (1/decimal-format odds)...go for it. Over time (which includes both good/bad=lucky/unlucky "streaks"...identical to what one would encounter in blackjack)...your results will speak for themselves...

Real cappers, like NC, LTA (and Bodio over at Covers) will sport steadily growing units over time (via a "bumpy climb")...unlike "have it both ways" posers like God (and his alias or "pose-alike" Lord-and-Master who used to grace goldengreek's thread with a similar attitude)...who, well, er don't (altho' they'd like us to assume from their posting style that they do)...

Hats off to anybody with the cojones to post and log their plays, "warts and all"...and own their results...middle fingers to those who only pose as if they have 'em....

[Redscot]

MLB 9/19/11

Play #1

Angels/Blue Jays under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to hit 8 before close. I have it at 7.8, but I think that's enough to play this one. Romero is is finally coming into his own and has been very consistent in the second half of the season. His dominance of the Angels lineup in the past, also helps support this play. On the other side, we have Williams going for the Angels in his comeback bid. He has actually pitched since he was given the opportunity a month ago as evidenced by a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid 3's. This is comparable to Romero's full season numbers. With the Blue Jays unfamiliar with what Williams has to bring, I think he has the edge and so do we. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

An interesting case Williams. His velocity is up over three mph's from his last stint in the majors and he has ditched the slider all together, going with a cutter instead which he throws over a 3rd of his pitches. The scouts are having to write a new book on him. The cutter has become the "en vogue" pitch over the last couple of years and is helping out a lot of rhp that don't have dominant cheese. My local has this bad boy at -120 already.

Hit that 30 mark faster than I predicted LTA Nice work.

[Love The Action]

if I can remember right there have been a few 10.5s in boston this year and a Matusz game at this point would have to be priced higher.

I would be shocked if the braves close anything lower than -110

Nice movement on the braces early for you....i think you may see -115 or more by close. I think the pitching is pretty even in this one though and can't find the edge. Looking good now though...good luck.

[Love The Action]

Any interesting case Williams. His velocity is up over three mph's from his last stint in the majors and he has ditched the slider all together, going with a cutter instead which he throws over a 3rd of his pitches. The scouts are having to write a new book on him. The cutter has become the "en vogue" pitch over the last couple of years and is helping out a lot of rhp that don't have dominant cheese. My local has this bad boy at -120 already.

Hit that 30 mark faster than I predicted LTA Nice work.

Good luck today red

[Love The Action]

Boston game 1's total opened at 10.5, with heavy juice on the over. For game 2, I got the same and 11 with juice on the under.

[italianbandit]

I agree with NC and Allure. "Value" is a graspable concept...no pompous condescension required. Subjectively estimate an "actual" winning percentage of an event...and if it outstrips the implied break-even winning percentage (1/decimal-format odds)...go for it. Over time (which includes both good/bad=lucky/unlucky "streaks"...identical to what one would encounter in blackjack)...your results will speak for themselves...

You are actually agreeing with what God1 is saying. Like NC you seem to be irritated by the way he presents his stuff. I think you are taking his tone a little too seriously. Let it go, this is a gambling site. LTA has a great thread and you shouldn't continue to feed immature quarrels in it. Its also clear to me now that part of this silliness is a big age difference.

[No coincidences]

You're going to beat the hell out of the closer in the SD/COL game LTA.

Sorry I couldn't keep my promise IB.

[815Sox]

Glad to see you on the Padres, I grabbed that one last night myself. Colorado is playing hurt.

[Redscot]

So here's the scenario I brought up the other day LTA and gang. I have a slow line and could grab the Yanks today probably beating the non-juiced closer by 15 to 20 cents, but would mean playing the Yanks at -235 . In theory if I have the edge I should bet it, right? Well, I ain't got the balls for this one .

[815Sox]

That game screams no play to me. Juice is way too high for the Yankees, but the Twins are really really bad. You have to consider just how bad the AL central is this year, and than look at where the Twins rank in it. I am pretty sure Mauer and Kubel will not be playing either. I could be wrong.

[Redscot]

1. Ben Revere (L) CF
2. Trevor Plouffe (R) SS
3. Michael Cuddyer (R) RF
4. Chris Parmelee (L) 1B
5. Danny Valencia (R) DH
6. Brian Dinkelman (L) 2B
7. Luke Hughes (R) 3B
8. Joe Benson (R) LF
9. Rene Rivera (R) C

1. Derek Jeter (R) SS
2. Curtis Granderson (L) CF
3. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez (R) 3B
5. Robinson Cano (L) 2B
6. Nick Swisher (S) RF
7. Andruw Jones (R) LF
8. Jesus Montero (R) DH
9. Russell Martin (R) C

[No coincidences]

1. Ben Revere (L) CF
2. Trevor Plouffe (R) SS
3. Michael Cuddyer (R) RF
4. Chris Parmelee (L) 1B
5. Danny Valencia (R) DH
6. Brian Dinkelman (L) 2B
7. Luke Hughes (R) 3B
8. Joe Benson (R) LF
9. Rene Rivera (R) C

That might be the worst lineup in the history of baseball.

[italianbandit]

No prob NC, its tough. Red I would lay if it screams no play to you, just follow it

[God1]

Nice movement on the braces early for you....i think you may see -115 or more by close. I think the pitching is pretty even in this one though and can't find the edge. Looking good now though...good luck.

Every bet looking good so far, locked in padres at +117 and cubs and cards both slightly cheaper than they are now. it looks like I'll be going with both boston overs at these prices

[alvinho]

So here's the scenario I brought up the other day LTA and gang. I have a slow line and could grab the Yanks today probably beating the non-juiced closer by 15 to 20 cents, but would mean playing the Yanks at -235 . In theory if I have the edge I should bet it, right? Well, I ain't got the balls for this one .

-235 moneyline? Pinny has it at -281!

[Love The Action]

First NFL play posted for week 3...it's the first multiple unit play of the season as well...good luck!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/1252335-ltas-nfl-plays-p8.html#post11504421

[brahmabull117]

I can't believe people are actually gonna play the cubs tonight




I'm a huge cubs fan and I will tell you that they're gonna get destroyed tonight. Casey Coleman has no business pitching in the major leagues, I wouldn't back him against a triple A lineup

[Redscot]

-235 moneyline? Pinny has it at -281!

Yup. . Anyway, I did lay off...for better or worse,I just can't bring myself around to pay that much juice.

G1, would be interested to hear your take on this. Is there a price you cut off at and just won't play even if you have the value?

[God1]

Yup. . Anyway, I did lay off...for better or worse,I just can't bring myself around to pay that much juice.

G1, would be interested to hear your take on this. Is there a price you cut off at and just won't play even if you have the value?

of course not. why should the price matter all that matter is expected return. There's no difference between 5% ROI on -105 or -350

[Redscot]

of course not. why should the price matter all that matter is expected return. There's no difference between 5% ROI on -105 or -350

I knew that would be your response, it stands to reason with your approach. I can't argue with the logic either, dunno, just have a hard time pulling the trigger on those big -200+ games.

[God1]

I knew that would be your response, it stands to reason with your approach. I can't argue with the logic either, dunno, just have a hard time pulling the trigger on those big -200+ games.

you don't have to increase unit size, bet the same you would if it was -120. profit is profit

of course though 10 cents in the 200 range is much less significant than 10 cents around -120

[Redscot]

you don't have to increase unit size, bet the same you would if it was -120. profit is profit

of course though 10 cents in the 200 range is much less significant than 10 cents around -120

[Redscot]

My local is giving me +110 at 9 right now on the over in Cincy. Seriously considering putting 2 units on it. Opinions?

[God1]

why do you need any opinions? you are getting huge value vs the true line right now at pinnacle. nothing else matters dude

anyone who would tell you not to bet is wrong

[God1]

wow the games 2 I saw I liked most, i log in which is real time vs the few minute delay not logged in and both have moved

[Redscot]

why do you need any opinions? you are getting huge value vs the true line right now at pinnacle. nothing else matters dude

anyone who would tell you not to bet is wrong

Oh, I bet it already. The opinion was based on going off my base bet, going bigger. I am crushing this guy every day on the closers right now and don't want to lose discipline and get all will-nilly betting too much. So, I try to pick my spots when I make a larger than 1 unit wager.

[Redscot]

wow the games 2 I saw I liked most, i log in which is real time vs the few minute delay not logged in and both have moved

I am assuming one of those was Sox over in game 2. I managed to grab that one early over 10 1/2 ev. What was the other?

[God1]

I am assuming one of those was Sox over in game 2. I managed to grab that one early over 10 1/2 ev. What was the other?

marlins and As, was talking about tomorrow

[Love The Action]

of course not. why should the price matter all that matter is expected return. There's no difference between 5% ROI on -105 or -350

That's correct...but you need to be able to accurately calculate the price at which the expected return drops. Therefore, you do need to set limits. For example, team A is set at -200 and you think they should be -220. In this case, your expected return drops for every cent you bet more than -220. Consequently, I would argue that you need to set pricing limits on every play.

[Love The Action]

My local is giving me +110 at 9 right now on the over in Cincy. Seriously considering putting 2 units on it. Opinions?

why do you need any opinions? you are getting huge value vs the true line right now at pinnacle. nothing else matters dude

anyone who would tell you not to bet is wrong

He's getting value, but only compared to the current number. However, if he locks it in just based on the current number without knowing what the closing number should be, he risks making a bad play if the total drops to 8.5(+110) on the over. Therefore, you cant just make a play based on it being better value than pinnys current number. You need to know that the current number is a good one and will stand up against the efficiency of the closing number. Therefore, basing a play off current number alone without calculating where the value lies, could be a recipe for disaster. You need to be able to accurately estimate where the closer will end up to be able to assess whether the current number holds value.