MLB 9/18/11
Play #1
Tampa Bay ML (-132) 1.5x (Locked)
I love this play! I have Tampa Bay at -150 based on a huge mismatch in starting pitching and I love getting over 15 cents in value here. Price is a top 10 MLB guy. His advanced stats are right there with anyone as evidenced by a WAR of 5, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA in the low 3's, a K% over 24% and a GB/FB at 1.23. Plus, he has pitched well against the Red Sox lineup throughout his career. On the other side, we have Wakefield and his knuckler which has not fared well against TB. Timmy boy is coming off his 200th victory and I don't see him getting 201 here. This one should make the AL East and Wild Card race interesting. Boston just isn't hitting that great right now and I expect those struggles to continue against Price, who understands what is at stake in this game. I'm rolling with TB for 1.5x. Good luck.
Play #2
Brewers/Reds under (9) 1.5x (Locked) CANCELLED -- PITCHING CHANGE MALONEY IN FOR WILLIS
This one should not be at 9. I have it at 8 even, despite Dontrelle Willis taking the mound, which gives us a rare full run of variance between my total and the opener. I actually think good old Dontrelle will pitch well on Sunday. He has a solid history against this lineup and will be fresh after only throwing 73 pitches in his last outting (only lasted 3 2/3 of an inning, which should hopefully point the market toward the over). Greinke is awsome...he's another guy with top 10-15 MLB stuff. Greinke is a dominating pitcher with a BABIP that shows he is due for some real success, however, his FIP, xFIP and SIERA are what really impresses at the 2.4 range. However, he also gets the strikeouts as evidenced by a K% over 28% and the ability to get groundballs with a GB/FB over 1.2. Willis is having a fine comeback campaign with a respectable SIERA of 4.13, K% over 16% and GB/FB of 2.44. The wind is projected to be blowing directly in from center field at 10mph and the ump is Hoye, one of the best under umps out there (I think he's also one of Dexter's autobets). It's pretty rare when I get a full run difference between my model and the opener, but that's the case with this game. It's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening. I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.
Play #3
White Sox/Royals under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)
I have this one at 7.8, but I'm going to take a shot with a total of 9 required to beat us on this one. Danks has solid advanced stats and has completely dominated the Royals lineup in his career. Butler and the boys are hitting under .180 against Danks with under .550 OPS. On the other side, I think Chen also pitches well from the left side tomorrow. The Sox are poor against lefties and also have a poor history against Chen. The wind is expected to be blowing out, but only at 5mph, so that should not be much of a factor. Hernandez is the ump with his under lean and I see no reason not play the under here. I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.
Play #4
Cardinals/Phillies under (7)(+100) 5x (Locked)
This is my biggest play since we cashed with the 4x Cards/Brewers under with Carpenter and Greinke pitching. Today, we have Carpenter and Hamels taking the mound. If this wasn't Sunday, I would give you a huge writeup, however, I have NFL and MLB action to cap. Needless to say, both guys have great advanced stats and both have found great success against these lineups. We have the ESPN Sunday Night game trend and the wind should be blowing straight in from center at 10mph or more. The ump is Darling who is one of the long time best under umps. Both pitchers will be geared up for this one and I expect a classic pitchers dual with the Cardinals fighting to stay in the wild card chase. My model has this one at 6 even and I'm rolling with the under for 5x. Good luck.
Play #5
Astros/Cubs under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)
I have to play this one despite the weather concerns. I have it at 7.5 flat, so I'm getting 1.5 runs of value despite a possible wind that shifts from across the field to out to left. The wind is blowing at about 12 mph from right to left, with about 30% of rain. I'm risking that we don't see any weather delays that hurt our starters chance at returning. I like this pitching matchup with Myers and Dempster and this total is way too high because of the weather which might not even hit. Most of the market is still at 8.5, so I'm happy to pay the -120 for 9 and protect against a push with a final of 9. It's going to take a total of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening today. Both pitchers have fared well against these lineups in the past and I expect the same today. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #6
Indians/Twins under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)
This is labeled as Play #6, but in actuality it will be our fifth MLB play because our Mil/Cincy under should be cancelled now that Maloney was substituted for Willis. In this game, I was hoping for a better number to materialize but the juice started to go even greater on the under so I'm locking it now at -115. Masterson has been great all year, if not in his last few starts. Masterson is just an advanced stat stud with a great WAR, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA, K% and GB/FB. I think this presents a great bounce back game for Masterson against a weakened Twins lineup. On the other side, Pavano is actually better than people think if you go through his advanced stats. Plus, he has pitched well against the Indians lineup. The wind is blowing in from right at 10 mph and the ump is Everitt with a solid under lean. I'm playing the under in this one for 1x. Good luck.
Play #1
Tampa Bay ML (-132) 1.5x (Locked)
I love this play! I have Tampa Bay at -150 based on a huge mismatch in starting pitching and I love getting over 15 cents in value here. Price is a top 10 MLB guy. His advanced stats are right there with anyone as evidenced by a WAR of 5, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA in the low 3's, a K% over 24% and a GB/FB at 1.23. Plus, he has pitched well against the Red Sox lineup throughout his career. On the other side, we have Wakefield and his knuckler which has not fared well against TB. Timmy boy is coming off his 200th victory and I don't see him getting 201 here. This one should make the AL East and Wild Card race interesting. Boston just isn't hitting that great right now and I expect those struggles to continue against Price, who understands what is at stake in this game. I'm rolling with TB for 1.5x. Good luck.
Play #2
Brewers/Reds under (9) 1.5x (Locked) CANCELLED -- PITCHING CHANGE MALONEY IN FOR WILLIS
This one should not be at 9. I have it at 8 even, despite Dontrelle Willis taking the mound, which gives us a rare full run of variance between my total and the opener. I actually think good old Dontrelle will pitch well on Sunday. He has a solid history against this lineup and will be fresh after only throwing 73 pitches in his last outting (only lasted 3 2/3 of an inning, which should hopefully point the market toward the over). Greinke is awsome...he's another guy with top 10-15 MLB stuff. Greinke is a dominating pitcher with a BABIP that shows he is due for some real success, however, his FIP, xFIP and SIERA are what really impresses at the 2.4 range. However, he also gets the strikeouts as evidenced by a K% over 28% and the ability to get groundballs with a GB/FB over 1.2. Willis is having a fine comeback campaign with a respectable SIERA of 4.13, K% over 16% and GB/FB of 2.44. The wind is projected to be blowing directly in from center field at 10mph and the ump is Hoye, one of the best under umps out there (I think he's also one of Dexter's autobets). It's pretty rare when I get a full run difference between my model and the opener, but that's the case with this game. It's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening. I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.
Play #3
White Sox/Royals under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)
I have this one at 7.8, but I'm going to take a shot with a total of 9 required to beat us on this one. Danks has solid advanced stats and has completely dominated the Royals lineup in his career. Butler and the boys are hitting under .180 against Danks with under .550 OPS. On the other side, I think Chen also pitches well from the left side tomorrow. The Sox are poor against lefties and also have a poor history against Chen. The wind is expected to be blowing out, but only at 5mph, so that should not be much of a factor. Hernandez is the ump with his under lean and I see no reason not play the under here. I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.
Play #4
Cardinals/Phillies under (7)(+100) 5x (Locked)
This is my biggest play since we cashed with the 4x Cards/Brewers under with Carpenter and Greinke pitching. Today, we have Carpenter and Hamels taking the mound. If this wasn't Sunday, I would give you a huge writeup, however, I have NFL and MLB action to cap. Needless to say, both guys have great advanced stats and both have found great success against these lineups. We have the ESPN Sunday Night game trend and the wind should be blowing straight in from center at 10mph or more. The ump is Darling who is one of the long time best under umps. Both pitchers will be geared up for this one and I expect a classic pitchers dual with the Cardinals fighting to stay in the wild card chase. My model has this one at 6 even and I'm rolling with the under for 5x. Good luck.
Play #5
Astros/Cubs under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)
I have to play this one despite the weather concerns. I have it at 7.5 flat, so I'm getting 1.5 runs of value despite a possible wind that shifts from across the field to out to left. The wind is blowing at about 12 mph from right to left, with about 30% of rain. I'm risking that we don't see any weather delays that hurt our starters chance at returning. I like this pitching matchup with Myers and Dempster and this total is way too high because of the weather which might not even hit. Most of the market is still at 8.5, so I'm happy to pay the -120 for 9 and protect against a push with a final of 9. It's going to take a total of 10 to beat us and I don't see that happening today. Both pitchers have fared well against these lineups in the past and I expect the same today. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #6
Indians/Twins under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)
This is labeled as Play #6, but in actuality it will be our fifth MLB play because our Mil/Cincy under should be cancelled now that Maloney was substituted for Willis. In this game, I was hoping for a better number to materialize but the juice started to go even greater on the under so I'm locking it now at -115. Masterson has been great all year, if not in his last few starts. Masterson is just an advanced stat stud with a great WAR, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA, K% and GB/FB. I think this presents a great bounce back game for Masterson against a weakened Twins lineup. On the other side, Pavano is actually better than people think if you go through his advanced stats. Plus, he has pitched well against the Indians lineup. The wind is blowing in from right at 10 mph and the ump is Everitt with a solid under lean. I'm playing the under in this one for 1x. Good luck.
Pinny just started juicing the under at -106 and even more interesting, Matchbook went from juice on the over to juice on the under at -102. Hopefully we get even more movement. Either way, as long as everything stays where it is, we will have beaten the closer on this 6x play. Good luck tonight gentlemen!
called it perfectly.
. Looking forward to successful final week's and playoffs. 
Thanks for the pick. Carpenter looked great, Hamels is looking like he will be a force in a year or two.
play and that was all i needed to hop on board...except i made half my bet on the FF under and the other half on the full game. Almost shit bricks when pujols had that two run jack in the first but glad it all worked out. Also completely UNLOADED on the rays today, getting a team that is 7-1 against their oppoent in their last 8 games bringing up a stud to the mound while the opposition has a complete gas can up there and the line is only -141?!? What?!? I had to unload, they gave me no choice, glad the rays didn't make me have to sweat it too hard.
