LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

wow the games 2 I saw I liked most, i log in which is real time vs the few minute delay not logged in and both have moved

In english please

Some context would be nice as well....

[Blackroc78]

thx for today picks

[Love The Action]

marlins and As, was talking about tomorrow

That makes more sense...i lean to marlins as well....

[Redscot]

He's getting value, but only compared to the current number. However, if he locks it in just based on the current number without knowing what the closing number should be, he risks making a bad play if the total drops to 8.5(+110) on the over. Therefore, you cant just make a play based on it being better value than pinnys current number. You need to know that the current number is a good one and will stand up against the efficiency of the closing number. Therefore, basing a play off current number alone without calculating where the value lies, could be a recipe for disaster. You need to be able to accurately estimate where the closer will end up to be able to assess whether the current number holds value.

Absolutely, hence why I wanted opinions to see if anyone had it capped and had a strong feeling one way or the other. As it stands I only played my standard unit. Also on the Braves, Pads, Boston over 10.5, Tor under 8.5, and Colorado under 9 (a little skeptical about this one).

Tempted on the Giants NFL, under as well. What you got cooking LTA?

[God1]

Absolutely, hence why I wanted opinions to see if anyone had it capped and had a strong feeling one way or the other. As it stands I only played my standard unit. Also on the Braves, Pads, Boston over 10.5, Tor under 8.5, and Colorado under 9 (a little skeptical about this one).

Tempted on the Giants NFL, under as well. What you got cooking LTA?

I don't care what anyone thinks, 20 cents off the true line is automatic. Take opinions, still shouldn't but if you feel the need to, when there's a 5 cent difference

[Love The Action]

I don't care what anyone thinks, 20 cents off the true line is automatic. Take opinions, still shouldn't but if you feel the need to, when there's a 5 cent difference

But the true line is pinnys closing number...not what they have posted in the early afternoon of a night game.

By your logic I should jump on any number at anytime if it is better than what pinny is currently offering, without taking into account where I believe the line will end up. Why would I take team A at -110, just because pinny is simultaneously offering -120, if I think the close will be +100?

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/19/11

Play #1

Angels/Blue Jays under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to hit 8 before close. I have it at 7.8, but I think that's enough to play this one. Romero is is finally coming into his own and has been very consistent in the second half of the season. His dominance of the Angels lineup in the past, also helps support this play. On the other side, we have Williams going for the Angels in his comeback bid. He has actually pitched since he was given the opportunity a month ago as evidenced by a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid 3's. This is comparable to Romero's full season numbers. With the Blue Jays unfamiliar with what Williams has to bring, I think he has the edge and so do we. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres ML (+117) 1x (Locked)

I would have liked to get this one at +120, but we're still getting over 7 cents in value from my number of +109. I like Millwood, but Luebke has the far better advanced stats and will actually be facing the weaker lineup without CarGo, Helton or Tulo. Plus, Giambi should be on the bench because Luebke is also a lefty. I expect a Rockies lineup of Young, Fowler, Ellis, Miller, Kousmanoff, Pacheco, Smith, Rosario and Field (Reynolds, Nelson and Giambi off the bench with a few others). Without the punch that was supplied by the Rox's best hitters, I think we have a nice chance for the Padres to come out and steal one in Colorado. I'm rolling with the Padres ML for 1x. Good luck.

MLB card is final at the above two plays.

Lean under in the NFL game, but probably not enough to play it. Good luck tonight!

[No coincidences]

Beat the closer on both plays LTA. Good luck.

[God1]

But the true line is pinnys closing number...not what they have posted in the early afternoon of a night game.

By your logic I should jump on any number at anytime if it is better than what pinny is currently offering, without taking into account where I believe the line will end up. Why would I take team A at -110, just because pinny is simultaneously offering -120, if I think the close will be +100?

if pinny is offering -120 that means the true line is about -116 at which point a 6 cent difference I guess you could take into account your opinion. If the true pinny line is -120 and you can get -110 I would bet without a moment's hesitation. As much faith as I have in my ability to price a game correctly, the ability to bet 10 cents ahead of the true line will be printing money. The closer is what counts but any given point in time the pinnacle true line is still the best idea of the probable outcome. And if you are betting 10 cents of ahead of the true line you will be beating the closer very often

[brahmabull117]

I like both those plays LTA

[God1]

matusz just serving up fastball after fastball at 91 belt high. Easy over cash

[brahmabull117]

matusz just serving up fastball after fastball at 91 belt high. Easy over cash

this is gonna be a contest to see who is more terrible, matusz or lackey

[No coincidences]

matusz just serving up fastball after fastball at 91 belt high. Easy over cash

What happened to this guy? Wasn't he a hot prospect at some point?

Guy is a meatball now.

[brahmabull117]

What happened to this guy? Wasn't he a hot prospect at some point? Guy is a meatball now.

at one point, I think he threw like 10 straight 90 mph fastballs mid thigh to belt high


who told this guy you can survive in the majors doing this??

[God1]

I can't believe people are actually gonna play the cubs tonight




I'm a huge cubs fan and I will tell you that they're gonna get destroyed tonight. Casey Coleman has no business pitching in the major leagues, I wouldn't back him against a triple A lineup

please take your garbage somewhere else

[No coincidences]

Coleman walks a fine line; when he's off, he's not good enough to labor through it. When he hits his spot and his sinker's working, though, he can stay the course. He'll never dominate, but he can get the job done.

Plus, Narveson should never be favored like that on the road. I don't care how good the Brewers are.

[Redscot]

if pinny is offering -120 that means the true line is about -116 at which point a 6 cent difference I guess you could take into account your opinion. If the true pinny line is -120 and you can get -110 I would bet without a moment's hesitation. As much faith as I have in my ability to price a game correctly, the ability to bet 10 cents ahead of the true line will be printing money. The closer is what counts but any given point in time the pinnacle true line is still the best idea of the probable outcome. And if you are betting 10 cents of ahead of the true line you will be beating the closer very often

True, and I have beat the closer like 90% over the last 2 weeks. The question is when to go in bigger. You yourself have plays that are "big", so obviously not all bets are created equal. So, if the given is that I am gonna beat the closer, when would it be appropriate to go bigger?

[God1]

True, and I have beat the closer like 90% over the last 2 weeks. The question is when to go in bigger. You yourself have plays that are "big", so obviously not all bets are created equal. So, if the given is that I am gonna beat the closer, when would it be appropriate to go bigger?

The bigger the edge, the bigger the bet should be. But I would also be betting bigger on moneylines because it far more efficient than the totals market which is of extreme importance when arbing

[God1]

Coleman walks a fine line; when he's off, he's not good enough to labor through it. When he hits his spot and his sinker's working, though, he can stay the course. He'll never dominate, but he can get the job done.

wrong

[No coincidences]

wrong

How so?

[God1]

How so?

he's been doing nothing but dominating the past 3 months. and your idea "when he's off he can't labor through it" is just ridiculous

[No coincidences]

he's been doing nothing but dominating the past 3 months. and your idea "when he's off he can't labor through it" is just ridiculous

Are we talking about the same Casey Coleman here?

He's been "doing nothing but dominating the past three months"? What?

[God1]

Are we talking about the same Casey Coleman here?

He's been "doing nothing but dominating the past three months"? What?

Yep

[No coincidences]

Yep

I've heard it all now.

I've watched probably 70-80% of his starts this year. You are certifiable for making that statement dude. I know you're probably only interested in getting into another huge argument because you're lonely and bored, but I'm not biting on this one. That's one of the most asinine statements I've read on this board. Ever.

[Redscot]

Are we talking about the same Casey Coleman here?

He's been "doing nothing but dominating the past three months"? What?

While true that going "inside" Colemans numbers reveal a guy who has pitched better than his numbers suggest (babip high, stranded runners low, decent k%, GB% - the relative SIERA good) to infer that he has been dominating! G1, come on man, stop baiting for the hell of it. I think if anywhere in SBR, it's this thread that appreciates/tolerates (depending on the individual) your input. You can get your point across without being so absolute and derogatory. There actually are a number of us out here who are open to your opinions and value your input. It's a think tank here, if you honestly think you can pick up nothing here than I wonder why you visit.

[God1]

I've heard it all now.

I've watched probably 70-80% of his starts this year. You are certifiable for making that statement dude. I know you're probably only interested in getting into another huge argument because you're lonely and bored, but I'm not biting on this one. That's one of the most asinine statements I've read on this board. Ever.

Nah it's pretty clear why I'm saying it. LTA will figure it out before you do

[No coincidences]

I absolutely agree that Coleman has been better than his surface numbers, but that's not saying much given how bad they've been.

There's a huge difference between that and "dominating," though, as most sane and/or non-instigating people would recognize.

[God1]

While true that going "inside" Colemans numbers reveal a guy who has pitched better than his numbers suggest (babip high, stranded runners low, decent k%, GB% - the relative SIERA good) to infer that he has been dominating! G1, come on man, stop baiting for the hell of it. I think if anywhere in SBR, it's this thread that appreciates/tolerates (depending on the individual) your input. You can get your point across without being so absolute and derogatory. There actually are a number of us out here who are open to your opinions and value your input. It's a think tank here, if you honestly think you can pick up nothing here than I wonder why you visit.

This isn't my "opinion." It's based on his numbers

[No coincidences]

Nah it's pretty clear why I'm saying it. LTA will figure it out before you do

I know what you're referencing about him being better than his numbers would indicate, but your definition of "dominating" must be a hell of a lot different than mine.

Wow.

[No coincidences]

Nice work tonight LTA.

Later fellas.

[God1]

I absolutely agree that Coleman has been better than his surface numbers, but that's not saying much given how bad they've been.

There's a huge difference between that and "dominating," though, as most sane and/or non-instigating people would recognize.

His luck numbers have been bad, the numbers that matter have been FANTASTIC. There's nothing to argue here

If you ever want to progress in baseball betting you need to forget that ERA even exists bud

[God1]

ERA is nothing more than a tool to gauge who the dumb money will think is better or worse than they actually are

And this discussion has proven how well it works!

[Redscot]

ERA is nothing more than a tool to gauge who the dumb money will think is better or worse than they actually are

And this discussion has proven how well it works!

So true, I honestly couldn't tell you the era of anyone in the league, and I FOLLOW baseball, it is just so inconsequential. That Braves finish hurt.

[God1]

So true, I honestly couldn't tell you the era of anyone in the league, and I FOLLOW baseball, it is just so inconsequential. That Braves finish hurt.

That's baseball it happens. Pretty big night even with that loss

[815Sox]

ERA is nothing more than a tool to gauge who the dumb money will think is better or worse than they actually are

And this discussion has proven how well it works!

I don't know if I would go that far, but I do agree far better stats to gauge pitching exist now.