1st Inning Stats and Betting

**onacloud** · 05-23-11, 12:32 PM

Looking forward to todays games

**MrBrown** · 05-23-11, 12:40 PM

looks like Arroyo 3Y 6N Hamels 1Y 8N

**doubledime** · 05-23-11, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by MrBrown

looks like Arroyo 3Y 6N Hamels 1Y 8N

FYI: If you use the filter of average runs scored in the first inning, this would be a no play since these 2 teams average 1.14 runs in the first.

**Timmah2483** · 05-23-11, 01:29 PM

Record 10-4 +3.9 Units

Red Sox (Bucholtz: 8-NO 1-yes) THE PLAY IS NO RUNS
Indians (Masterson: 6-NO 3-yes)

Reds (Arroyo: 6-NO 3-yes)
Phillies (Hamels: 8-NO 1-yes) THE PLAY IS NO RUNS

Rays (Hellickson: 6-NO 2-yes) THE PLAY IS NO RUNS
Tigers (Coke: 6-NO 2-yes)

BlueJays (Villanueva: N/A)
Yankees (Colon: 5-no 1-YES) THE PLAY IS YES, RUNS

Dodgers (Kershaw: 8-NO 2-yes)
Astros (Norris: 8-NO 1-yes) THE PLAY IS NO RUNS

Nats (Gorzelanny: 4-no 4-YES)
Brewers (Gallardo: 7-no 3-YES) THE PLAY IS YES, RUNS

WhiteSox (Danks: 5-no 4-YES)
Rangers (Ogando: 7-no 1-YES) THE PLAY IS YES, RUNS

Mariners (Vargas: 8-NO 1-yes)
Twins (Pavano: 7-NO 2-yes) THE PLAY IS NO RUNS

Cards (Lohse: 8-NO 1-yes)
Padres (Moseley: 6-NO 3-yes) THE PLAY IS NO RUNS

A's (Outman: N/A)
Angels (Weaver: 7-NO 3-yes) THE PLAY IS NO RUNS

**MrBrown** · 05-23-11, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

FYI: If you use the filter of average runs scored in the first inning, this would be a no play since these 2 teams average 1.14 runs in the first.

gotcha, Correct

**doubledime** · 05-23-11, 01:43 PM

Thanks Tim

First of all this is your thread so I don't want to confuse anyone, so let me know if you want my input.

Using the average runs per 1st inning filter the following plays would be:

Red Sox/Indians NO
BJ/Yankees YES
LAD/Astos NO
Mariners/Twins NO
Card/Pads NO
A's/Angels NO

Good luck to all

**Timmah2483** · 05-23-11, 01:46 PM

Above I added my own adjustment to Doubledime's Run avg. I believe the Defense and Home/Away avg. are far more effective than straight up yearly avg.. also, I track who is scoring, example: Gallardo for Brewers is 7N-3Y but there have been 6 half innings with runs. Most 7N-3Y or better pitchers have only 3-4 half innings with scores. (by half inning scores I mean either the Team A scored, team B scored, or they both scored in the most inning which equals 2 half inning scores)

Double dime, you should continue to track it your method. it may be more productive.

My adjustment effected:

Reds/Phillies while they avg. .62/.52 runs per 1stInn, Phillies home D only allows .20 and Reds Away allow .43. when you divide those numbers together then add you only have .88runs, on top of a 14N-4Y pitching staff It tell me No runs. I am Worried about the half inning runs its over what I would like to see, which is 7 or less. the Games above that meet this quota will be In BLUE. Those are what I believe to be the absolute best plays of the day and there are 5 of them.

**MrBrown** · 05-23-11, 01:47 PM

TB/DET sitting at -115 NO 5dimes, best of the bunch so far oddswise on NO's

**Timmah2483** · 05-23-11, 02:06 PM

Mr. Brown, The idea is not to look for Value, because just as we look at stats so do the bookies.. That game is probably the most Shady because it has two pitchers at 6-2, half Innings running at 11 total, and like I said before 7 or less is safe. also they avg. 1.12runs per 1stInn when Rays are away and Tigers are home.

Your overall best Value game is probably Mariners/Twins -135, or if you have any belief in the "yes" it would be Brewers/Nats +105 Yes

**MrBrown** · 05-23-11, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by Timmah2483

Mr. Brown, The idea is not to look for Value, because just as we look at stats so do the bookies.. That game is probably the most Shady because it has two pitchers at 6-2, half Innings running at 11 total, and like I said before 7 or less is safe. also they avg. 1.12runs per 1stInn when Rays are away and Tigers are home.

Your overall best Value game is probably Mariners/Twins -135, or if you have any belief in the "yes" it would be Brewers/Nats +105 Yes

I understand that, this is my 3rd year playing 1st inning yes/no, thanks

**Jaws1002** · 05-23-11, 02:38 PM

New to the thread. Looks like you do your homework thanks for the hard work. One question do you play your games in single bets,parlays or both? Thanks again.

**Timmah2483** · 05-23-11, 03:25 PM

BOTH! I usually play a couple $10-20 parlays...

The best way to Bet, would be SU. but what fun is a 5-0 day without a $15 to win $300 behind it?

I usually bet these in the $30-$40 range, $50 if I really like it. so If I go 10-4 as I did yesterday, and I have +3.9 units which is roughly $136.50 profit Im not really at a loss to spend that $36.50 on a couple solid parlays, which I plan to do, today.

My parlays today (5dimes):
$20.00 $315.96 Pending 5 Team Parlay
5/23/11 7:00pm Props Baseball 2952 CIN/PHI no score 1st inn -125* vs CIN/PHI score 1st inn yes
5/23/11 8:00pm Props Baseball 2954 LOS/HOU no score 1st inn -135* vs LOS/HOU score 1st inn yes
5/23/11 7:00pm Props Baseball 2960 TAM/DET no score 1st inn -130* vs TAM/DET score 1st inn yes
5/23/11 7:00pm Props Baseball 2962 BOS/CLE no score 1st inn -135* vs BOS/CLE score 1st inn yes
5/23/11 8:05pm Props Baseball 2968 SEA/MIN no score 1st inn -135* vs SEA/MIN score 1st inn yes

$22.05 $361.29 Pending 5 Team Parlay
5/23/11 8:00pm Props Baseball 2954 LOS/HOU no score 1st inn -155* vs LOS/HOU score 1st inn yes
5/23/11 8:05pm Props Baseball 2955 WAS/MIL score 1st inn yes +105* vs WAS/MIL no score 1st inn
5/23/11 10:00pm Props Baseball 2958 STL/SDG no score 1st inn -155* vs STL/SDG score 1st inn yes
5/23/11 7:00pm Props Baseball 2962 BOS/CLE no score 1st inn -125* vs BOS/CLE score 1st inn yes
5/23/11 8:05pm Props Baseball 2968 SEA/MIN no score 1st inn -135* vs SEA/MIN score 1st inn yes

**doubledime** · 05-23-11, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by Timmah2483

Above I added my own adjustment to Doubledime's Run avg. I believe the Defense and Home/Away avg. are far more effective than straight up yearly avg.. also, I track who is scoring, example: Gallardo for Brewers is 7N-3Y but there have been 6 half innings with runs. Most 7N-3Y or better pitchers have only 3-4 half innings with scores. (by half inning scores I mean either the Team A scored, team B scored, or they both scored in the most inning which equals 2 half inning scores)

Double dime, you should continue to track it your method. it may be more productive.

My adjustment effected:

Reds/Phillies while they avg. .62/.52 runs per 1stInn, Phillies home D only allows .20 and Reds Away allow .43. when you divide those numbers together then add you only have .88runs, on top of a 14N-4Y pitching staff It tell me No runs. I am Worried about the half inning runs its over what I would like to see, which is 7 or less. the Games above that meet this quota will be In BLUE. Those are what I believe to be the absolute best plays of the day and there are 5 of them.

I just added LAD/Astros NO. It was right on the cusp so I went with it. BOL

**Timmah2483** · 05-23-11, 03:55 PM

To anyone worried about the Juice, all 4 7:00EST Games are between -125 and -115

**Timmah2483** · 05-23-11, 04:48 PM

I played:

Cards/Padres NO
Twins/M's NO
A's/Angels NO
Dodgers/astros NO
Nats/Brewers YES
Sox/Indians NO
Rays/Tigers NO

I have about $350 invested in todays plays... BOL EVERYONE!

**doubledime** · 05-23-11, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Timmah2483

I played:

Cards/Padres NO
Twins/M's NO
A's/Angels NO
Dodgers/astros NO
Nats/Brewers YES
Sox/Indians NO
Rays/Tigers NO

I have about $350 invested in todays plays... BOL EVERYONE!

Same to you Tim....see you at the window

**dee_jas** · 05-23-11, 05:43 PM

good luck tonight guys, following a few of them.

**dlunc3** · 05-23-11, 06:46 PM

good way to start the night...1-0

**Timmah2483** · 05-23-11, 07:28 PM

6-2, the only game missed so far, is Phils/Reds NO... which would hit Doubledime's method of YES for that game... 6-2, 7-1.. both are great

**dlunc3** · 05-23-11, 07:29 PM

4-0 so far!

**Timmah2483** · 05-23-11, 07:55 PM

Twins/M's crushed my Parlay! ohh well.. 4-1, 2 pending...

**pacers101** · 05-23-11, 08:15 PM

yea I feel you timmah on the parlay. reds screwed a 6 gamer for me.

**doubledime** · 05-23-11, 09:38 PM

Very nice night. Look forward to tomorrow. Any thoughts on an umpire filter?

**thebonzman** · 05-23-11, 10:02 PM

Screw the umpire!

**merikson** · 05-23-11, 10:04 PM

Timmah,

Any chance you can keep an updated +/- units for this non-system?

**Timmah2483** · 05-24-11, 12:51 AM

Originally posted by merikson

Timmah, Any chance you can keep an updated +/- units for this non-system?

It will be posted Daily With the Posted plays.. if you notice yesterdays units are posted on todays picks as well as the record.

But I just Crunched the numbers and Its 17-7 record (+6.8 Units)

**Timmah2483** · 05-24-11, 12:56 AM

Originally posted by doubledime

Very nice night. Look forward to tomorrow. Any thoughts on an umpire filter?

interesting, but I honestly dont want to screw up what we have going. 17-7 in 2 days with +6.8 unit return is pretty amazing.

What are the numbers on ur method?

**lilb999** · 05-24-11, 01:03 AM

Is this the first year youve played this? If not, do you remember last yrs profits?

**Timmah2483** · 05-24-11, 06:00 AM

This is my first year tracking my progress on 1st inning bets.

**doubledime** · 05-24-11, 07:24 AM

Originally posted by Timmah2483

interesting, but I honestly dont want to screw up what we have going. 17-7 in 2 days with +6.8 unit return is pretty amazing.

What are the numbers on ur method?

I agree, if it's not broke don't fix it. I've played first innings in the past, but really just started concentrating on them since your thread. Today I will look at home/away first inning stats just to see if it makes any difference.

As far as umps go, back 35 years ago, before computers, I was charting umpires for when I played totals. Big advantage back then since not too many people wanted to take the time to do it. I still look at them for my totals, but since everyone has this info, umps do not play as big of role now days.

**thebonzman** · 05-24-11, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by Timmah2483

But I just Crunched the numbers and Its 17-7 record (+6.8 Units)

I like your research, nice job! Keep up the good work!

**jnsbanman** · 05-24-11, 10:26 AM

Good work... Looks promising

**cash$bro91** · 05-24-11, 10:51 AM

ATL/PIT looks like it might be a play tonight but I'll wait for your input.

**doubledime** · 05-24-11, 12:43 PM

OK I have all the runs per first inning calculated, including home/away, plus the umpires so just waiting for the all important Tim's calculations.

**calmeat** · 05-24-11, 12:44 PM

I will wait as well, I do like the ATL/PIT also the BOS/CLE and WAS/MIL games