New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

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  • barts185
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 12-13-09
    • 815

    #1016
    The site is listing the Colorado pitcher, Juan Nicasio, as having only 18 inning pitched, which would put the less than 20 innings pitched filter into play.

    It looks like they are not including his last start, on 06/14, where he pitched 6 innings.

    He has 24 innings pitched.
    Comment
    • ShivaBowl
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 03-09-10
      • 5133

      #1017
      TPR system went 0-0 yesterday.
      NYY 1.4 No Play if NYY > -150 np
      Start Date 05/01
      52-60 –11.26u

      H/A system went 0-4 yesterday.
      PHI, No Play if PHI > -150 np
      HOU, +130 L
      WAS, -139 L
      MLW, +106 L
      ARZ, -127 L
      Start Date 05/29
      24-21 –0.45

      06/20/2011

      No Plays if > -150

      TPR System Plays
      BOS 2.7 IP-20 N/P
      DET 1.3
      NYY 1.2

      H/A System Plays
      LAD
      Last edited by ShivaBowl; 06-20-11, 10:51 AM.
      Comment
      • BrewMaster
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 12-03-10
        • 555

        #1018
        19Jun11 Result: 0-2
        Record Official Start 15May11: 65-64 (+0.01 units)

        Scientific Approach 20Jun11:


        TOR, -157

        Filtered (COL, PIT, CIN)
        System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck
        Comment
        • HoulihansTX
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 02-12-09
          • 30566

          #1019
          Originally posted by HoulihansTX
          Official start (May 15 - Current)
          Overall

          (101-90) +5.65Units


          ___________________
          Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

          June 19
          Bullpen Projection System

          Seattle 3.13 W (+150)
          Angels 2.35
          W (+135)
          Minny 2.11 W (-145)
          CWS 1.87 W (+115)
          Cubs 1.16 L (+190)
          Houston 1.14
          L (+130)
          March 26 to May 14
          Overall
          (68-52) +22.56 Units

          Official start (May 15 - Current)
          Overall

          (105-92) +8.65Units
          ___________________
          Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

          June 20
          Bullpen Projection System

          Atl 8.67
          Detroit 4.82
          Tampa 3.84
          Cleveland 3.42
          Yanks 1.64
          No Plays
          Texas np >-150 3.84
          Cubs np L2 3.32
          Florida (epic losing streak) 1.31


          I hope everyone was able to grab a price under -150 on Minny yesterday. Pinny/Greek/5Dimes/BetJam all had numbers <-150. I see those as books, that offer reasonable prices on their baseball lines. They are what I use when determining what the final numbers in my update will be.
          Comment
          • chinoloco
            SBR Sharp
            • 10-10-10
            • 286

            #1020
            Complimentary Selection for 6/20/2011
            Take LA Angels W/Weaver over Florida W/Sanchez NO PLAY if > -125
            Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 11-26-14, 04:02 PM.
            Comment
            • ShivaBowl
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-09-10
              • 5133

              #1021
              [quote=ShivaBowl;10500863]H/A system went 0-4 yesterday.
              [quote=BrewMaster;10500895] 19Jun11 Result: 0-2

              BM, Yesterday was a horrible day? And I have no idea what the problem is,
              but we had big problems last year on Sundays? And we are having them again, this year?
              We should start thinking about dropping the plays to a ½u on F-in Sundays.
              BOL
              Comment
              • JVP3122
                SBR MVP
                • 05-02-09
                • 1048

                #1022
                Originally posted by barts185

                And once again, the incorrect use of mathematical symbols leads to this question.

                In this thread, don't expect < or > to be used correctly from a math point of view.


                No play if >-150 means no play if -151 or worse. So it would be a play at -150, -149, -148, -147, etc. and no play at -151, -152, -153, -154, etc.
                Sorry about that. I guess it was previously addressed. I went through the first four or five pages looking at results, etc, and then skipped to the end to see how everyone was doing. Thanks for the clarification.
                Comment
                • barts185
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 12-13-09
                  • 815

                  #1023
                  Originally posted by JVP3122
                  Sorry about that. I guess it was previously addressed. I went through the first four or five pages looking at results, etc, and then skipped to the end to see how everyone was doing. Thanks for the clarification.

                  Sorry if my post made it seem like I was venting at you - I wasn't. I've suggested numerous times that people use words instead of incorrectly using math symbols in order to avoid this issue.
                  Comment
                  • HoulihansTX
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 02-12-09
                    • 30566

                    #1024
                    Originally posted by barts185
                    Sorry if my post made it seem like I was venting at you - I wasn't. I've suggested numerous times that people use words instead of incorrectly using math symbols in order to avoid this issue.
                    They need to invent an "equal to or greater than," button. LOL
                    Comment
                    • barts185
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 12-13-09
                      • 815

                      #1025
                      Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                      They need to invent an "equal to or greater than," button. LOL
                      I'm not sure that would even help since anyone who's looking at it from a math point of view would think that -149 is greater than -150 and -151 is less than -150. It's just always going to be an issue LOL
                      Comment
                      • gryfyn1
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-30-10
                        • 3285

                        #1026
                        [quote=ShivaBowl;10501959][quote=ShivaBowl;10500863]H/A system went 0-4 yesterday.
                        Originally posted by BrewMaster
                        19Jun11 Result: 0-2

                        BM, Yesterday was a horrible day? And I have no idea what the problem is,
                        but we had big problems last year on Sundays? And we are having them again, this year?
                        We should start thinking about dropping the plays to a ½u on F-in Sundays.
                        BOL
                        how has it done in interleague? is there a chance that that will make the projections screwy?
                        Comment
                        • ManBearPig
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-04-08
                          • 2473

                          #1027
                          Originally posted by barts185
                          I'm not sure that would even help since anyone who's looking at it from a math point of view would think that -149 is greater than -150 and -151 is less than -150. It's just always going to be an issue LOL
                          ...then how bout you guys use >=ABS(-151) (I kid...I kid)
                          Comment
                          • alydar
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 12-19-10
                            • 56

                            #1028
                            wondering

                            has formula wiz stop posting ?have not seen him yesterday or today
                            Comment
                            • barts185
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 12-13-09
                              • 815

                              #1029
                              Originally posted by alydar
                              has formula wiz stop posting ?have not seen him yesterday or today
                              Then you're not looking very hard.
                              Comment
                              • HoulihansTX
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 02-12-09
                                • 30566

                                #1030
                                Originally posted by Formulawiz
                                Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140 ATL?, CWS?
                                Cincy Np Change of pitcher
                                CWS np<-130 np "equal to or greater than" -150
                                Brew np (Tampa W2)
                                Dodgers np<-120 np "Equal to or greater than" -150
                                Atl np <-130 np "Equal to or greater than" -150

                                LOL "Equal to or greater than"
                                Comment
                                • barts185
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 12-13-09
                                  • 815

                                  #1031
                                  Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                  Cincy Np Change of pitcher
                                  CWS np<-130 np "equal to or greater than" -150
                                  Brew np (Tampa W2)
                                  Dodgers np<-120 np "Equal to or greater than" -150
                                  Atl np <-130 np "Equal to or greater than" -150

                                  LOL "Equal to or greater than"

                                  But it's NOT equal to or greater than, even the way it's done. Math is hard! It's a play if the line is -150, right?

                                  No play if worse than -150.

                                  If it's NOT a play at -150, then no play if -150 or worse.
                                  Comment
                                  • HoulihansTX
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 02-12-09
                                    • 30566

                                    #1032
                                    I dont play @ -150.

                                    But I understand how to use equal to or greater than. I barely passed calculus in college, but I know algebra. I think
                                    Comment
                                    • barts185
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 12-13-09
                                      • 815

                                      #1033
                                      Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                      I dont play @ -150.

                                      But I understand how to use equal to or greater than. I barely passed calculus in college, but I know algebra. I think
                                      If you know how to use it, it would be equal to or less than (except in this thread)

                                      In the rest of the world, -151 is less than -150.
                                      Comment
                                      • Tommygunn
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 02-26-09
                                        • 669

                                        #1034
                                        What about P/T power plays for today? None?
                                        Last edited by Tommygunn; 06-20-11, 05:51 PM.
                                        Comment
                                        • Tommygunn
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 02-26-09
                                          • 669

                                          #1035
                                          And you guys have T.Wood pitching for Cinn not Johnny Cueto right? On the sportrends PML page they have Cueto not Wood. NYY are still TPR & BPS plays right?
                                          Comment
                                          • Small Timer
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 01-12-11
                                            • 389

                                            #1036
                                            I think they remain BPR plays, mine got cancelled didn't mean to play pitchers just action but didn't uncheck the boxes on Pinny. I really have to not be lazy and do that.
                                            Comment
                                            • HoulihansTX
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 02-12-09
                                              • 30566

                                              #1037
                                              Originally posted by Tommygunn
                                              And you guys have T.Wood pitching for Cinn not Johnny Cueto right? On the sportrends PML page they have Cueto not Wood. NYY are still TPR & BPS plays right?
                                              Ignore starting pitchers for BPR. BPR is based exclusively upon the performance of the bullpens.
                                              Comment
                                              • HoulihansTX
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 02-12-09
                                                • 30566

                                                #1038
                                                In the rest of the world, -151 is less than -150.
                                                I understand what you are saying. You are saying that if the starting point was zero, then -151 would be further from zero than -150.

                                                Well of course you are right in that sense, but that not relevant to gambling.

                                                You had me confused for a second. American odds gambling -151 is more than -150 so on and so forth.

                                                Are we on the same page?
                                                Comment
                                                • ShivaBowl
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 03-09-10
                                                  • 5133

                                                  #1039
                                                  The TPR System, has STL as a play today?
                                                  I would not put a penny on this system, I don’t think it’s being updated this year for injuries?
                                                  TPR, how hot or cold a team is over the past 7 games Vs. the entire season.
                                                  STL L10 3-7
                                                  MIN?
                                                  Fade FAL?
                                                  Fade SDP?
                                                  TAM?
                                                  PHI?
                                                  WAS?
                                                  Last edited by ShivaBowl; 06-21-11, 08:08 AM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Formulawiz
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 01-12-09
                                                    • 1589

                                                    #1040
                                                    NO ML plays yesterday

                                                    Todays ML plays. FAV < -140
                                                    COL, KC both teams L2
                                                    Comment
                                                    • barts185
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 12-13-09
                                                      • 815

                                                      #1041
                                                      Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                                      I understand what you are saying. You are saying that if the starting point was zero, then -151 would be further from zero than -150.

                                                      Well of course you are right in that sense, but that not relevant to gambling.

                                                      You had me confused for a second. American odds gambling -151 is more than -150 so on and so forth.

                                                      Are we on the same page?
                                                      Sorry, not trying to confuse anyone. I've always been trying to prevent confusion, which is why I've always said we should use words.

                                                      I'm going to drop it now and just realize that anyone who looks at this thread is going to be confused.

                                                      There is one thing you mentioned though - you said we needed a symbol for equal to or greater than. That can be expressed as

                                                      >=

                                                      and there is also



                                                      But saying

                                                      -151 >= -150

                                                      or

                                                      -151 ≥ -150

                                                      is still going to confuse people who look at the thread.


                                                      But, if you are not playing at -150, in keeping with the way things are done in the thread, at least >=-150 would make more sense than saying that >-150 means greater than or equal to -150.


                                                      Because some people are using >-150 to mean they will play at -150 but not at -151, some are saying it means they will play at -149, but won't play at -150.

                                                      Anyway, like I said, I'm done with it, just going to accept the fact that people are going to be confused and that even the different posters of the systems are using the same symbol to mean different things.
                                                      Last edited by barts185; 06-21-11, 08:00 AM. Reason: Expanded explanation, added ≥
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ShivaBowl
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-09-10
                                                        • 5133

                                                        #1042
                                                        TPR system went 1-1 yesterday.
                                                        Start Date 05/01
                                                        53-61 –11.27u

                                                        H/A system went 1-0 yesterday.
                                                        Start Date 05/29
                                                        25-21 +0.55

                                                        P/T Power Plays went 2-0 yesterday.
                                                        Start Date 06/12
                                                        9-7 +2.00u


                                                        06/21/2011

                                                        TPR System Plays
                                                        BOS 2.7 R/L –1.5 -105
                                                        STL 1.0
                                                        NYY, 1.2, No Play IP-20
                                                        DET 1.2, No Play LAD W/2
                                                        NYM 1.0, No Play OAK W/5

                                                        H/A System Plays
                                                        WAS, 68.1 --- 666.7
                                                        LAD, 57.5---161.4
                                                        MLW, 438.8 --- 3565.8 No Play MLW L/2 Tam W/4
                                                        PHI, 118.3---719.4 No Play STL W/2

                                                        P/T Plays
                                                        BAL 1/2u
                                                        CHC 1/2u
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ShivaBowl
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 03-09-10
                                                          • 5133

                                                          #1043
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ShivaBowl
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 03-09-10
                                                            • 5133

                                                            #1044
                                                            Originally posted by Formulawiz
                                                            NO ML plays yesterday Todays ML plays. FAV < -140 COL,
                                                            KC both teams L2
                                                            KC L/2 No Play
                                                            Never bet on teams that are on a 2 game or more losing streak.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • ShivaBowl
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 03-09-10
                                                              • 5133

                                                              #1045
                                                              Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                                              I understand what you are saying. You are saying that if the starting point was zero, then -151 would be further from zero than -150. Well of course you are right in that sense, but that not relevant to gambling. You had me confused for a second. American odds gambling -151 is more than -150 so on and so forth. Are we on the same page?
                                                              YES
                                                              Comment
                                                              • HoulihansTX
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 02-12-09
                                                                • 30566

                                                                #1046
                                                                Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                                                Official start (May 15 - Current)
                                                                Overall

                                                                (105-92) +8.65Units


                                                                ___________________
                                                                Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

                                                                June 20
                                                                Bullpen Projection System

                                                                Atl 8.67 W (-120)
                                                                Detroit 4.82 L (+140)
                                                                Tampa 3.84 W (+125)
                                                                Cleveland 3.42 L (-105)
                                                                Yanks 1.64
                                                                W (-105)
                                                                March 26 to May 14
                                                                Overall
                                                                (68-52) +22.56 Units

                                                                Official start (May 15 - Current)
                                                                Overall

                                                                (108-94) +9.85Units
                                                                ___________________
                                                                Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

                                                                June 21
                                                                Bullpen Projection System

                                                                Atl 8.67
                                                                Tampa 3.84
                                                                Cleve 3.42
                                                                Cubs 3.32
                                                                Oak 2.04
                                                                Minny 1.70
                                                                Yanks 1.64

                                                                No Plays
                                                                Detroit np(Dodgers W2) 4.82
                                                                Texas np >-150 3.84
                                                                Philly np >-150 1.85
                                                                Florida (Epic losing streak) 1.31

                                                                I have highlighted this to avoid further confusion. If this doesnt help, then may God be with you.

                                                                --- Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ShivaBowl
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 03-09-10
                                                                  • 5133

                                                                  #1047
                                                                  Originally Posted by HoulihansTX 06/20/11
                                                                  Bullpen Projection System
                                                                  Atl 8.67 W (-120)

                                                                  NICE, Tim Hudson + Craig Kimbrel $$$
                                                                  I could always count on TX: when I need a winner.
                                                                  Thanks
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ShivaBowl
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 03-09-10
                                                                    • 5133

                                                                    #1048
                                                                    Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
                                                                    June 21
                                                                    Bullpen Projection System

                                                                    Cleve 3.42
                                                                    Talbot, needs to go 8 or 9 innings tonight.
                                                                    CLE BP, is spend?
                                                                    BOL


                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • HoulihansTX
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 02-12-09
                                                                      • 30566

                                                                      #1049
                                                                      I know it is a tough bet, especially with the ML backing Colorado.

                                                                      I may just lay off.
                                                                      Last edited by HoulihansTX; 06-21-11, 11:19 AM.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • chinoloco
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 10-10-10
                                                                        • 286

                                                                        #1050
                                                                        Complimentary Selection for 6/21/2011
                                                                        Take Chi Cubs W/Garza over Chi W Sox W/Buehrle NO PLAY if CWS < -140
                                                                        Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 11-26-14, 04:02 PM.
                                                                        Comment
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