System Integrity 2011

[Wilba]

Another one-run win; I'm freakin' shocked, I tell ya.

I'm done with this. What comes to mind is the line from Animal House: "Thank you, sir, may I have another?" I'll play my other two systems, which haven't slapped me around like this one has so far this year.

Good luck to everyone the rest of the way.

a) if you keep getting burnt by 1 run wins - why would you not adapt and play the -1 runline like me and slapshot?

b) re your above post - if you think 7 W 3 L and 4 pushes (7W/7L on -1.5 RL) in last 14 games is "brutal" you need a reality check.

c) if you think that making a profit on any system in any sport (even if it is a small profit) is so bad that it's "brutal", once again you need a reality check.

great job running the thread slapshot keep it up

[dlunc3]

thats why I was wondering what other systems he follows... seems like this one has been doing pretty well... if the other two are better then this, then i want in!

[acliff266]

Good luck for today plays.

[peeiempee]

Another win that was stolen in the 9th...

[slapshot]

we are approaching the midway point of the season...lets do a little recap and a word of advise.

the number of wins are down compared to previous years...no doubt about that.

but the main reason for playing this system is to make profit without too much stress from losing streaks.....not spending hours in hours out researching.........and have some fun with the game....i still believe we have generated decent profit, to make this system worth while.

the number of 'a' level bets we have this year is exactly on the same percentage as the average previous years.
the number of losses this year so far is slightly above the average but not too bad.
the biggest difference is the 1 run wins which has been so much talked about here....we're up to 25% of them now.....past data show this number ranges between 10-15%.

we haven't been killing ourselves trying to break too many bad stretches....the longest losing streak for a -1.5 player is 4 games...that is if you chose to not bet on the biggest favorite game with a pitching change...........obviously if your unit size is too big every losing streak is stressful....don't be greedy.

the worst losing streak for a -1 player is 3 so far which isn't too bad.

as teams are eliminated from playoff contention they will coached differently...players approach the games differently and hopefully the number of wins will go up....we shall see..

[slapshot]

34-25-21-3-2 +34 units

friday
boston -1 to win 1

[floridagolfer]

thats why I was wondering what other systems he follows... seems like this one has been doing pretty well... if the other two are better then this, then i want in!

Here's the record as I have it over the last month:
LLLW
LLLLLW
W
LW
LLW
W
W
W
LLW
LW
LLLW
LLL
That's a 2-8 start from May 25 and 3-9 most recently. The system had 90 wins last year but this season is on a pace for 72.

By my own definition, I count a chase as successful when at least 90 percent of series wins come in Games A, B or C.

I play two other chases that are way less frustrating. One is 83-1 with 94 percent winning in A, B or C; the other is 71-3 with 87.8 percent winning in A, B or C.

I've played the biggest opening favorite religiously for three or four years now and in each year it was relatively smooth sailing; nothing like this year. I would like nothing better than for this to turn around and everyone reel off 20 straight A wins. Good luck.

[allenc85]

FG - I play -1.5 on both the highest and 2nd highest opening ML, but sit out the first 2 losses and chase starting on a C bet on -1.5 RL. Obviously I've had a lot more action this year than I anticipated, but it's worked/profited nicely. I'm up around 20 units, and that was with a week or so off where I think I would have added a unit from each system. Just thought if you already have two systems working well for you. then maybe you should consider a system like mine where you miss a couple of early wins but the chases are much less stressful. Any way - good luck bud

[jolmscheid]

Slapshot...being up 34 units before the all-star break is awesome! At this pace one can add 60%+ to their bankroll...I don't get what is so bad about that!

[jolmscheid]

I also like how allenc is playing it too...by waiting for a couple losses...you will have less plays but hopefully lesser risk as well....allen, what has been your longest chase so far this season by waiting for 2 losses for the highest and second highest favs?

[allenc85]

I've gone to a D bet twice, which would have been the 6th game of the series... but both times included a day like yesterday where there were only a few games to choose from, I probably should have sat the day out but played anyway. It worked out though, since both times had a B bet for me with +150 and +160 odds, so in the end I won a unit by risking a total of about 5-6 units, where I would imagine FG had approximately 15-20 units to win the same 1 unit; I think one of the series was on the second favorite, but I know the first one was the 1st fav...

Anyway, judging by what's happened so far, I can probably lose 2 series (I would have started over if I had gone to and lost the E bets) and still be + money...

[dlunc3]

I've gone to a D bet twice, which would have been the 6th game of the series... but both times included a day like yesterday where there were only a few games to choose from, I probably should have sat the day out but played anyway. It worked out though, since both times had a B bet for me with +150 and +160 odds, so in the end I won a unit by risking a total of about 5-6 units, where I would imagine FG had approximately 15-20 units to win the same 1 unit; I think one of the series was on the second favorite, but I know the first one was the 1st fav...

Anyway, judging by what's happened so far, I can probably lose 2 series (I would have started over if I had gone to and lost the E bets) and still be + money...

So are you considering today a C or D bet considering the biggest favorite has not won by 2+ since Monday?

Also, do you know which bet the 2nd biggest favorite is currently on?

[soldier1047]

Bos is a B play for highest ML play.
Phil is a A play for 2nd highest ML.

[honeyeater]

NYY Yankees tom- I play -1.5 so there are no ties. I think the longest losing streak this season is 5 games- this will be the fifth-

[dlunc3]

lets get it then boys... might not be a bad idea to start a decent size three game chase treating this 5th bet as an A bet.. guess it depends how invested you are already.. but if not, dont think its a bad idea

[allenc85]

So are you considering today a C or D bet considering the biggest favorite has not won by 2+ since Monday?

Also, do you know which bet the 2nd biggest favorite is currently on?

For me, the Sox were a B bet loss, I wait til the regular -1.5 is at a C bet (2 losses) then play; tomorrow will be a E bet, C bet for me, on the yankees with 4 units to win 4 (and profit 1).

2nd Fav is currently on the Phillies as a B bet since the Phillies only won by 1 today. If they don't cover 1.5 tomorrow I'll begin chasing with on Sunday...

[slapshot]

34-26-21-3-2 +32.7 units

saturday
new york yankees -1 to win 2.3...'b' level bet

[acliff266]

great job , thank you

[DustyDiamond]

Is this system still undefeated overall? Not sure what 34-26-21-3-2 means.

[honeyeater]

I have played this system about since Slapshot has started posting. It works for me. I play -1.5 so I have no pushes. I USUALLY play from the 3rd loss on. I've never had to go past a 3 bet series. It's great because USUALLY it's even money or more. A couple times in begining I got a different team then Slapshot. I thank him because now I just reconfirm my pick with his. But if you just follow the rules (I guess you can use any book just stay consistent). It works- I bet to win 10% of my principle every bet. Because it's even and I start at bet 3 or higher my draw down is manageable (I have had 50% draw down before). Point is the only post in here should really be Slapshot's picks- the rest is really just noise. Like Dusty- undefeated? It depends on how far you chase. I have yet to lose any "series". But you could really just spend 30 min doing a back test- shit just read the thread and follow Slapshots posts. I hate how no one wants to do any work when the directions are on the first post. As for what the numbers mean? Wins- Loses-Push-rained-postponed (I think- but who really gives shit)

[slapshot]

Is this system still undefeated overall? Not sure what 34-26-21-3-2 means.

the record should be read like this
wins-losses-pushes-rain-pitcher change

if you follow my strategy you have zero series losses this year.....you can read in previous posts how i deal with losing streaks......following that strategy, the system has zero losses since 2006.

[acliff266]

Thank you for explanations

[slapshot]

35-26-21-3-2 +35 units
wins-losses-pushes-rain-pitcher change

sunday
philly -1 to win 1......'a' level bet

[merikson]

What books offer 1 run line bets for U.S. bettors?

[Wilba]

I bet to win 10% of my principle every bet.

Point is the only post in here should really be Slapshot's picks- the rest is really just noise.

betting to win 10% of your principle on a chase series

"Point is the only post in here should really be Slapshot's picks- the rest is really just noise"

with the exception of slapshot you post in here more than anyone else

[Wilba]

merikson - pinnacle is the only book I am aware of that does the -1 MLB lines.

As long as a book offers a ML and a -1.5 RL though, you can easily create your own -1 RL by betting appropriate amounts on ML and -1.5 (so that if ML wins and RL loses you break even)

[acliff266]

Good call. Thank you

[slapshot]

What books offer 1 run line bets for U.S. bettors?

i think you have to use the run line calculator and play moneyline and -1.5

[slapshot]

36-26-21-3-2 +36 units
wins-losses-pushes-rain-pitching change

monday
arizona -1 to win 1......

[slapshot]

36-27-21-3-2 +34.8 units
wins-losses-pushes-rain-pitching change

very close between texas and oakland...opened at the exact same line....texas half a run higher total.

tuesday
texas -1 to win 2.2

[acliff266]

Good luck for today plays.

[smclaurin2]

What books offer 1 run line bets for U.S. bettors?

5 Dimes offers several alternate run lines, including -1.

[rkelly110]

I understand your -1 calculations.

I bet to win 2 units on ML and bet one unit on RL (if -100 or higher).
If it's a one run game, I win a unit instead of pushing. Winning on the RL is just icing on the cake.

I usually wait until 11am EST to look for game odds. Yesterday, Detroit was the play instead of
Arizona. Detroit covered.

Not bashing, that's what I do. GL

[nitsuj378]

I use 5dimes and they offer a -1 RL. I know I don't post much in here but I'll share my input. I use the opening lines that are on the SBR scoreboard page (which i think has changed to Bookmaker odds). I have been using those opening lines all season and my numbers look like this.....

Win-Loss-Push (any bet cancelled due to push, pitcher change or rain I just consider a push)

A: 15-16-13
B: 10-5-6
C: 3-2-2
D: 2-0
E: 0-0
F: 0-0

As of today I have 1 series pending that is on the B bet. This system has yielded 30 units (using chase not Labby) thus far this season which is very good considering we aren't even at the All Star break yet. Best of luck to all out there!

Edit: I forgot to mention I started my plays on April 14th. I don't like to bet the first couple weeks of baseball or the month of September.

Justin

[honeyeater]

betting to win 10% of your principle on a chase series

"Point is the only post in here should really be Slapshot's picks- the rest is really just noise"

with the exception of slapshot you post in here more than anyone else

As you know I jump in on the 3rd or 4th loss- and actually I mostly post the days picks. You on the other hand are the real pain in the ass. You must be the stupidest person on these forums. I do this for a living. I d I win. I manage other peoples money. I've done it for three years. I retain clients- that's why I can still do this. What do you do? How do you earn a living? I know I should not waste time on a moron like you and others like you but you are just so full of shit. I would wish you luck but you'll never have any. So I'll just say I hope your not stupid enough to get yourself killed- but I doubt that as well.