System Integrity 2011

[GGPLAYER]

there are different variations of this system out there.

i will play this chase system with these criteria

* pick the biggest favorite of the day, play them -1
* minimum of 3 games per day
* if race for the biggest favorite is a tie….pick game with highest total
* pinnacle opening lines are used to select the game

i have researched the last five seasons....to avoid losing streaks is by far the most important thing in playing any system..including this one.

longest losing streaks based on the criteria above:
2006 - 5 games
2007 - 5 games
2008 - 3 games
2009 - 5 games
2010 - 4 games

my research hasn't indicated that the system is less successful at the start of the season then other periods of the season so the plays starts today.

if anyone is playing the system differently...feel free to post your strategy.

Just went back and based on what slapshot posted when he opened this thread I would definitly say Clev is the play tonight.

[allenc85]

I see that KC opened at -113 and Cleveland at -130, both from Pinnacle... My question is if you were to look at this next year, wouldn't you still see the STL opened as the highest favorite, therefore would back test it playing STL?

[GGPLAYER]

^^ Interesting point and great question. I'm still betting Clev though.

[honeyeater]

I see that KC opened at -113 and Cleveland at -130, both from Pinnacle... My question is if you were to look at this next year, wouldn't you still see the STL opened as the highest favorite, therefore would back test it playing STL?

I know mean and it makes sense- The issue is Slapshot takes each bet individually. As for me this would be my 2nd and I went big on 1 because it was the 4th. So if I sit it out and the fav wins then I start at 1 waiting for 3 loses again. The Indians ARE the 2nd fav but I like the idea of back testing and seeing the odds. I may split it. I really think Slapshots work is great but I have no idea where he got KC?

[soldier1047]

If you do 2nd highest, stick with 2nd highest tomorrow. Some player do this as a seperate chase-chasing both highest and 2nd highest ML. Maybe find out what G1, G2, G3, etc...for this 2nd highest chase?

[slapshot]

cleveland is the second biggest favorite now when i check the lines now again......again, cleveland is the second biggest favorite of nite and for me it's either the biggest fav or nothing at all.....i see it like this, st louis is still the biggest fav of the day but the change to their line-up ruled them out as a play today.

i suppose this criteria could be added to "the rules" of the systems...."no changes to the line-ups (pitching) after line openings for a game to qualify"

this is just my take and how i will keep the record here...........it's up to yourself to make up your mind about what your most comfortable with.

[slapshot]

I see that KC opened at -113 and Cleveland at -130, both from Pinnacle... My question is if you were to look at this next year, wouldn't you still see the STL opened as the highest favorite, therefore would back test it playing STL?

from a back testing point of view....st louis would have been the recorded team and it's flaw impossible to detect in the back testing i have from past years.

in other words, the back testing i have isn't 100% accurate if you follow my theory of scrapping games with a pitching change.

[honeyeater]

^^ Interesting point and great question. I'm still betting Clev though.

I ended up taking ST Louis. Is this thread not better then JM MLB? See what can be accomplished when everyone is focused on one system and we are all going the same direction? Gl to CLE (Doesn't look good now)

[honeyeater]

we have a pitching change for st louis.....they in bring someone called lynn....the odds has obviously changed.

today's action is cancelled at least for me....if you opt to go for the next biggest favorite it's kansas.....i'm staying away.

Thank you Slapshot for all the work you do. As you can see because of the time difference I'll post the fav before you and MOST of the time we agree. Almost always since you showed me how to check Pinnicle through covers. I still have difficulty at times with away favs but you schooled me on that as well. I ended up with STL today because of the "back testing" theory. In any case my question is how did you figure Kansas was the 2nd fav today. Thank you.

[jolmscheid]

Hey honeyeater...what is your record waiting for 3 losses before you start playing?

[honeyeater]

Hey honeyeater...what is your record waiting for 3 losses before you start playing?

With this system this year I want to say the most I've gone (I chase) is two more games (so to 5). But I think there may have been a 6. Maybe not. SO I've never lost and I just DBL my second bet (since it's usually at least $1-$1). How many wins? I really don't know. I don't keep track. I'd have to look at my account and see how many -1.5 I played in a row. It must be over 10 this year.

[honeyeater]

So CLE lost and as of now unless STL performs a miracle the have outright lost the game. In a strange way this accually makes me feel good. Because now I know that today was a true loss and tomorrow will be a true #6 meaning BIG BET TIME!

[honeyeater]

So I know everyone is either asleep or drunk in the US but I am pretty certain it's BOS for Friday (US)- I'm playing now.

[slapshot]

Thank you Slapshot for all the work you do. As you can see because of the time difference I'll post the fav before you and MOST of the time we agree. Almost always since you showed me how to check Pinnicle through covers. I still have difficulty at times with away favs but you schooled me on that as well. I ended up with STL today because of the "back testing" theory. In any case my question is how did you figure Kansas was the 2nd fav today. Thank you.

you're reading the lines right....kansas wasn't the 2nd biggest favorite...a mistake on my part simply.

[slapshot]

25-21-14-2-2 +20.67 units

friday
Boston -1 to win 5.33

arizona was close but boston opened as a bigger favorite according to covers.

[floridagolfer]

It's Arizona at my site. Good luck to everyone.

[GGPLAYER]

25-21-14-2-2 +20.67 units

friday
Boston -1 to win 5.33

arizona was close but boston opened as a bigger favorite according to covers.

Sorry to be the guy who is questioning everything but yes I do see Bos opened slightly larger than AZ on Covers. BUT they both opened at -175 on Pinny and according to your tie-breaker rule go with the team with the larger total. AZ game opened at 9 and Bos at 8.5. I have no problem going with Boston because I have 2 other systems which have AZ as a play tonight so I could use the extra action to dig myself out of the economic hole I'm in.

[teecee]

now arizona is in contention for highest moneyline of the day? jeez louise. hope it hits florida.

[GGPLAYER]

I ended up taking ST Louis. Is this thread not better then JM MLB? See what can be accomplished when everyone is focused on one system and we are all going the same direction? Gl to CLE (Doesn't look good now)

I honestly wish I came back to this thread and read what Slapshot wrote about not playing at all. Th are the worst night for me because I leave work early and I am out of pocket the whole night. I have to lock in my bets before I leave and go with it. I am just breaking one of my golden rules lately and that is not to press and/or win it all back at once. I basically have burned thru a months worth of winnings so I'm starting from scratch. FYI- I was on Minny last night just like you for the same reasons.

[slapshot]

Sorry to be the guy who is questioning everything but yes I do see Bos opened slightly larger than AZ on Covers. BUT they both opened at -175 on Pinny and according to your tie-breaker rule go with the team with the larger total. AZ game opened at 9 and Bos at 8.5. I have no problem going with Boston because I have 2 other systems which have AZ as a play tonight so I could use the extra action to dig myself out of the economic hole I'm in.

no, both did not open at -175.....arizona did but not boston.

if you check covers and the line history there, you can see boston opened at -178.

[GGPLAYER]

I did check Covers and saw that it was -178. I said that in my other post. I also check the line history for Pinnacle on SBR Odds and Bos opened at -175. Not here to argue. Like I said I'm on both at this point.






Line History:
Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox



MONEYLINES
06/02 16:57 +164 / -175
06/02 17:01 +167 / -178
06/02 17:11 +170 / -181
06/02 22:38 +173 / -185
06/03 06:18 +178 / -190
06/03 09:10 +183 / -195
06/03 10:14 +181 / -193
06/03 13:29 +183 / -195

[slapshot]

in situations like this covers used to break the tie.....at least that's how i play the system......tail or develop your own strategy that you are comfortable with.

[Notorious_Donk]

25-21-14-2-2 +20.67 units

friday
Boston -1 to win 5.33

arizona was close but boston opened as a bigger favorite according to covers.

Do you use a site where they have -1 run lines? Or do you create them yourself?

[GGPLAYER]

in situations like this covers used to break the tie.....at least that's how i play the system......tail or develop your own strategy that you are comfortable with.

Cool.....thanks for taking the time to respond to me. Really not trying to be a pain in the ass but I am just seeing things one way and want to be sure I'm in step with what everyone is doing. I was a little thrown off yesterday when KC was thrown out there at first as the next highest odd game of the day so I thought I would bring to everyones attention what I was seeing today. You run a nice drama free thread here and I don't want to rock the boat. If you have been using Covers and that is the tie breaker that's what I will roll with. Boston owes me a little anyway after getting sweep by the North Siders this week. Thanks again man.

[GGPLAYER]

Do you use a site where they have -1 run lines? Or do you create them yourself?

To the best of my knowledge there is not a site which will offer you a -1 RL. You need to create it by betting enough on the ML to cover a RL loss. Make sense. I'll give you a real world example on tonights game:

Right now I have RL Even and -195 ML on one of my books. Say you want to win $100, you would break it up like this:

ML bet $98 to win $50
RL bet $50 to win $50

So if they win 2-0 you get $100. If they win 2-1 you push and lose nothing. If they lose 0-1 you lose $148. But keep in mind if you just bet ML to win $100 you would lose $195.

[soldier1047]

Here is the -1 Runline formula.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/1022200-1-runline-formula.html

Hope this helps.

[slapshot]

no bad blood has been stirred GGPLAYER.....we're all here to win and help each other out in the process.

reason for being a bit of a stickler on these rules is consistency..............all systems are created to take the analysis out of the pick selection, it should be a completely automatic procedure backed up with real world historical data.

lets focus on the game now, we need this win badly.

[Notorious_Donk]

Yes I know how to create the -1 run line. I was just wondering if you guys use a site that has a -1 run line, but I don't think there are any. Thanks anyway guys.

[goodone]

Here is the -1 Runline formula.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/1022200-1-runline-formula.html

Hope this helps.

It helped indeed, thanks soldier!

[slapshot]

-1 is available at pinnacle but with the limitation that you can't be american.

[smclaurin2]

5 dimes allows a ton of alternate lines, including -1. That's what I am playing with this system.

[smclaurin2]

Gotta love the solo homer in the 8th to go up by 2! Nice win. Boston again tomorrow?

[slapshot]

8-6 boston.......just what the doctor ordered.

[honeyeater]

I never get emotional but I had 20% on this one because it was a 6. Man Boston really made that one close!

[honeyeater]

Now according to your system Slapshot we should see at least 4 wins in the next 6 games yes?