Big Dog MLB 2011

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  • rkelly110
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 10-05-09
    • 39691

    #211
    I don't know where you can find stats like that dharma. Learn how to cap the games
    and pick the best dogs or have your wife pick them. Isn't how that always is,
    say, take your wife to the track, she picks horses by the name and she hits a long shot.

    If you bet $5 a day on all dogs to win $200,000, you will be way ahead if you win, even
    if it takes years to hit.

    GL
    Comment
    • bombCanada
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 08-19-09
      • 965

      #212
      Originally posted by rkelly110
      Why wasn't Wash. a play yesterday?
      Odds too high.

      Parlays are seductive. But the odds v. the payoff are just not worth it. I've seen people do some fancy things with them but I didn't feel like they gave me an edge. And I don't have a good feel for them either.

      I like what I'm doing now because it's simple and intuitive to me, and that means I don't make mistakes. I haven't made one yet on my own system this year. I like that. A lot.
      Comment
      • bombCanada
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 08-19-09
        • 965

        #213
        Originally posted by ShowMeDaMoney
        been gettin crushed lately... I'm jumpon on board here. Got a few other guys I look at... seems like dharma is hot.
        Originally posted by ShowMeDaMoney
        meant bombcanada...sorry
        Thanks. Good luck and welcome.
        Comment
        • bombCanada
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 08-19-09
          • 965

          #214
          Results for April:

          Comment
          • bombCanada
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 08-19-09
            • 965

            #215
            Originally posted by bombCanada
            5/4:
            Astros +184 5.00u *lose*
            Nationals +144 5.00u *lose*
            Marlins +171 5.00u *win*
            Twins +159 5.00u *win*
            Angels +173 5.00u *win*
            Indians +136 5.00u *lose*
            71-70 +175u
            Comment
            • bombCanada
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 08-19-09
              • 965

              #216
              5/5:
              Angels 157 +5.00
              Indians 172 +5.00
              Astros 139 +5.00

              Best luck!
              Comment
              • brko
                SBR Sharp
                • 01-28-10
                • 415

                #217
                bombCanada... i PMed you.
                Comment
                • rkelly110
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 10-05-09
                  • 39691

                  #218
                  Damn, Bookie Crusher, quadrupled your units in a little over a month. Can't get those
                  kind of returns from the markets. Way to go.
                  Comment
                  • Vastey
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 08-02-10
                    • 348

                    #219
                    I bet National for today with +210. I don't believe, but everything may happens :-)
                    Comment
                    • figue
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-23-10
                      • 2524

                      #220
                      Originally posted by bombCanada
                      Results for April:

                      Comment
                      • LGHT
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 04-18-11
                        • 513

                        #221
                        Interesting thread. There is a guy in the contest here that is killing everyone by just betting all dogs!! The cool part about it is his win % is decent at 55. It's pretty sad on my part because I have the highest win % at 64.29, but i'm 5th place and 40 units behind him!
                        I wish I could pick dogs consistently I would own the bank if I could hit 3 dogs in a parlay!
                        Comment
                        • doesnotcompute
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 05-02-11
                          • 61

                          #222
                          Originally posted by bombCanada
                          71-70 +175u
                          Wow... you almost tripled your bankroll so far in a little over a month. Keep up the good work!
                          Comment
                          • nicolaitanghoj
                            Restricted User
                            • 02-28-11
                            • 213

                            #223
                            Depends on how much 1 unit is..
                            If one unit is 2% of your entire bank roll then he would have a ROI on 350% already ..
                            Comment
                            • bombCanada
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 08-19-09
                              • 965

                              #224
                              Originally posted by bombCanada
                              5/5:
                              Angels 157 +5.00u *win*
                              Indians 172 +5.00u *win*
                              Astros 139 +5.00u *lose*
                              Took them 12 innings to do it, and they almost gave it up, but the Indians made it 2-1 today. Sweet.

                              now 73-71 +186u
                              Comment
                              • bombCanada
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 08-19-09
                                • 965

                                #225
                                So the longer this goes on, the more worried I get. Like the saying about a bull stock market, a winning system climbs a wall of worry. To regress to a 40% win rate, some serious losing has to happen. I am not a god, this system is not gold, I've just figured out how to size my bets to win at a 40-50% win rate (and the +money wagers don't hurt!). Do not put your house payment into this. Easy does it one day at a time, work the system.

                                But it's OK to smile.
                                Comment
                                • bombCanada
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 08-19-09
                                  • 965

                                  #226
                                  Originally posted by brko
                                  bombCanada... i PMed you.
                                  I see that. Cool mustache btw. Neither my DNA nor my wife will let me grow one like that.

                                  Originally posted by rkelly110
                                  Damn, Bookie Crusher, quadrupled your units in a little over a month. Can't get those
                                  kind of returns from the markets. Way to go.
                                  Thanks rkelly. As I've said before, I'm grateful to you because you got me interested in the hockey dog thread last fall. As to the stock market, while they're not rigged, exactly, size matters a lot, and no one with a big enough bankroll to make $$ in the market is doing what we're doing, because the stock market is much more liquid.
                                  Comment
                                  • bombCanada
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 08-19-09
                                    • 965

                                    #227
                                    Originally posted by Vastey
                                    I bet National for today with +210. I don't believe, but everything may happens :-)
                                    20-30 years ago there was a Mets, and later Philly, relief pitcher, Tug McGraw, who famously used to say "you gotta believe." Good luck with the nationals play.

                                    Originally posted by figue

                                    Applause from guys who lost their pants is always welcome.
                                    Comment
                                    • bombCanada
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 08-19-09
                                      • 965

                                      #228
                                      Originally posted by LGHT
                                      Interesting thread. There is a guy in the contest here that is killing everyone by just betting all dogs!! The cool part about it is his win % is decent at 55. It's pretty sad on my part because I have the highest win % at 64.29, but i'm 5th place and 40 units behind him!
                                      I wish I could pick dogs consistently I would own the bank if I could hit 3 dogs in a parlay!
                                      Don't do it. Just pick the dogs. The math on parlays is all wrong. With proper money management, if you can pick at 64%, you can kick gorilla ass. Just say no to parlays.


                                      Originally posted by doesnotcompute

                                      Wow... you almost tripled your bankroll so far in a little over a month. Keep up the good work!
                                      Funny thing for a guy named "doesnotcompute" to say. Thanks for your support.

                                      Originally posted by nicolaitanghoj
                                      Depends on how much 1 unit is..
                                      If one unit is 2% of your entire bank roll then he would have a ROI on 350% already ..
                                      Doesn't matter how much one unit is, because the appropriate unit size is different for everyone.

                                      Me starting this thread was all about a couple of things:
                                      1) starting something that I owned
                                      2) keeping myself interested
                                      3) merging together a couple of ideas learned in other places and making them my own
                                      4) taking enough risk out to keep fear under control
                                      5) making some $$

                                      Truth is, I enjoy attending the occasional ball game in person, but don't watch much, and don't care much. Because I don't care, I can't/ won't/ don't handicap. This is mostly a mathematical puzzle. Baseball is simply a means to an end, which is developing a system successful enough to a) impress myself, b) impress my wife, and c) sell the same way managed futures are sold (ie. 2% of assets under management and 20% of profits).

                                      Most of the hard work was done before the season started. Now it's about executing and holding my breath.

                                      Can't believe I have to hold my breath until September.
                                      Comment
                                      • rkelly110
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 10-05-09
                                        • 39691

                                        #229
                                        If it gets out of hand BC, using how you would bet the futures, put in a stop loss and wait
                                        until it turns around. IMO.

                                        I've been tracking odds a few of the games you post. I don't print my daily teams w/ odds
                                        until 11am. At 11am some of your teams are at +160 ML and they are kicking absolute ass.

                                        Cleveland was the one today. Last month they hit SU ML 9-5 64%. So far this month 4-0.
                                        Total 13-5 72%.

                                        Using +160 to bet +RL is more impressive, Last month was 12-2 86%.
                                        This month 4-0. Total 16-2 89%.

                                        Sorry, am I drooling?
                                        Comment
                                        • LtDementia
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 08-22-10
                                          • 203

                                          #230
                                          Originally posted by bombCanada
                                          So the longer this goes on, the more worried I get. Like the saying about a bull stock market, a winning system climbs a wall of worry. To regress to a 40% win rate, some serious losing has to happen. I am not a god, this system is not gold, I've just figured out how to size my bets to win at a 40-50% win rate (and the +money wagers don't hurt!). Do not put your house payment into this. Easy does it one day at a time, work the system.

                                          But it's OK to smile.
                                          Hey BC--

                                          The behavior this year is quite different from last year. Assuming that I'm using the same filters that you are, April this year is at 45.7% - April last year is was 38.4%. Last year the best months were from August on.

                                          I have a spreadsheet if you're interested....

                                          LT
                                          Comment
                                          • bombCanada
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 08-19-09
                                            • 965

                                            #231
                                            5/6:
                                            Braves +148 6.00u
                                            Nationals +149 6.00u
                                            Brewers +140 6.00u
                                            Twins +135 6.00u
                                            White Sox +164 6.00u

                                            Best luck!
                                            Comment
                                            • bombCanada
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 08-19-09
                                              • 965

                                              #232
                                              Originally posted by rkelly110
                                              If it gets out of hand BC, using how you would bet the futures, put in a stop loss and wait
                                              until it turns around. IMO.

                                              I've been tracking odds a few of the games you post. I don't print my daily teams w/ odds
                                              until 11am. At 11am some of your teams are at +160 ML and they are kicking absolute ass.

                                              Cleveland was the one today. Last month they hit SU ML 9-5 64%. So far this month 4-0.
                                              Total 13-5 72%.

                                              Using +160 to bet +RL is more impressive, Last month was 12-2 86%.
                                              This month 4-0. Total 16-2 89%.

                                              Sorry, am I drooling?
                                              My stop loss is 0 units. I'll have lost nothing and yet had all this fun!

                                              I wish I could pay attention to this during the day but I just don't have that freedom.

                                              What you make clear is that there's lots of ways to win at baseball if you're just willing to do the work. Good work.
                                              Comment
                                              • bombCanada
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 08-19-09
                                                • 965

                                                #233
                                                Originally posted by LtDementia

                                                Hey BC--

                                                The behavior this year is quite different from last year. Assuming that I'm using the same filters that you are, April this year is at 45.7% - April last year is was 38.4%. Last year the best months were from August on.

                                                I have a spreadsheet if you're interested....

                                                LT
                                                There's no doubt things vary from year to year, and this year seems a better year than most, but as long as dogs hang on at around 40% we'll be just fine.

                                                I guess my amazement comes from the fact that I picked what appears to be a very good year to start this. I don't usually have that kind of luck.

                                                thanks!
                                                Comment
                                                • brko
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 01-28-10
                                                  • 415

                                                  #234
                                                  here is something to turn on the discussion



                                                  Comment
                                                  • rkelly110
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 10-05-09
                                                    • 39691

                                                    #235
                                                    Nice spread sheet brko. Those win odds from previous years would challenge a Lab line.

                                                    Nicolai has done research from last year. +160- +179 was +17 units. +180- +199 +24 units.
                                                    These are ML dogs. Breaking it down to specific odd ranges can really increase your bank roll.

                                                    Using Bookie Crushers money management in his odds range, as you can see, is also awesome.

                                                    I'm glad you're having fun BC, If I was up that many units and lost it all, I would be upset.
                                                    I've already lost my 23 units I won in MLB and am on the rebound. Should've gave up
                                                    gambling for lent, because that's the week I lost it all.

                                                    GL today.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • bombCanada
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 08-19-09
                                                      • 965

                                                      #236
                                                      Originally posted by rkelly110
                                                      Nice spread sheet brko. Those win odds from previous years would challenge a Lab line.

                                                      Nicolai has done research from last year. +160- +179 was +17 units. +180- +199 +24 units.
                                                      These are ML dogs. Breaking it down to specific odd ranges can really increase your bank roll.

                                                      Using Bookie Crushers money management in his odds range, as you can see, is also awesome.

                                                      I'm glad you're having fun BC, If I was up that many units and lost it all, I would be upset.
                                                      I've already lost my 23 units I won in MLB and am on the rebound. Should've gave up
                                                      gambling for lent, because that's the week I lost it all.

                                                      GL today.
                                                      I disagree, sort of. If you win 40% at flat to -110 odds, then yea it'd be a tough slog even with lab lines.

                                                      But when a win covers 1.3+ losses, things don't look so bad. I haven't tried to do the math about it, but my intuition tells me that it's quite successful.

                                                      I'll try to put some math around this later.

                                                      As to bad luck during Lent, I'm sorry for your loss. One of the things I got out of my system a long time ago was any wagering without a plan. I feel zero need to bet unless it fits my plan. I've even got a plan for football, which is the worlds worst game to bet (but the most fun)... I allow myself $20/week so I can bet on the Jets and the Giants.

                                                      So when you lost your winnings during your dark week, what plan were you following?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • doesnotcompute
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 05-02-11
                                                        • 61

                                                        #237
                                                        Originally posted by bombCanada
                                                        My stop loss is 0 units. I'll have lost nothing and yet had all this fun!

                                                        I wish I could pay attention to this during the day but I just don't have that freedom.

                                                        What you make clear is that there's lots of ways to win at baseball if you're just willing to do the work. Good work.

                                                        So you are just betting within the certain price range? I'm very interested to see how this system performed in past years. Let me know if you need back testing done. I have a scraper and some programming skills to contribute.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dollar Bin
                                                          SBR Hustler
                                                          • 04-22-11
                                                          • 67

                                                          #238
                                                          brko-

                                                          Interesting table. Seems on the surface that this is the best year for big dogs in the last 8. However, the hit rate for 2011 is only based on the first month and the others in your table appear to be season long. Would you have a monthly breakdown for any of the previous years? I could see this year regressing to that 38-40% range over the season. I am interested if previous April's have high hit rates. I'm also curious if any other month is particularly high for big dogs?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • figue
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 07-23-10
                                                            • 2524

                                                            #239
                                                            Comment
                                                            • brko
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 01-28-10
                                                              • 415

                                                              #240
                                                              @ Dollar Bin:

                                                              i have that stats too. i mean, broken into months of a certain year. but i have only data for 2004-2010, and that's being only seven seasons so i can't make any conclusions. almost every year there's one (or two) black month(s) with around or under 30% strike rate of the system - and that month is different for every season. if i'd have to choose one month and gun to head i would go with June... idk why, only 2 months under 38% and 4 months over 40%.

                                                              other thing i would like to stress out... imo bookies are in constant change and no two seasons set odds identically. there are just maybe similarities with two seasons which we can detect late in the season or when it finishes. so, bombCanada's way is the only possible here - have fun and go small. hence i haven't made complete simulation using Lab lines from day to day idk what percentage is cutoff, but be cautious with this - one month strike rate went under 26%! (July 2009)

                                                              yeah i know there were only 5 gamedays in May but the interesting thing is that strike rate increased and for these 5 days it's 45,8% - unbelievable!


                                                              P.S. those stats for month breakdown are not in odds' ranges but roughly taken all dogs with +135 odds or greater
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Stealinhome
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 10-23-09
                                                                • 977

                                                                #241
                                                                Great discussion in here guys. That spread sheet is very interesting. Looks like even as this thing regresses you could still make money with it.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Dollar Bin
                                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                                  • 04-22-11
                                                                  • 67

                                                                  #242
                                                                  brko-

                                                                  Thanks for the detailed response.

                                                                  You see were I was going. If other years had high April's and regressed to the 38-40% range there should be an expectation that this year may do the same. BC has stated he expected that some regression of the hit rate may happen and looking at the data I would expect it to regress to that range (38-40%).

                                                                  Of course this year could be a statistical outlier and the hit rate could stay above that range. I'm not planning on it and will stay conservative in my unit size. A labby would be helpful but the line could get very long with a month like July 2009.

                                                                  Thanks again. Great stuff!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Dollar Bin
                                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                                    • 04-22-11
                                                                    • 67

                                                                    #243
                                                                    Originally posted by Stealinhome
                                                                    Great discussion in here guys. That spread sheet is very interesting. Looks like even as this thing regresses you could still make money with it.
                                                                    I agree. With sound money management this system should hang in there.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bombCanada
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 08-19-09
                                                                      • 965

                                                                      #244
                                                                      Originally posted by bombCanada
                                                                      5/6:
                                                                      Braves +148 6.00u *win*
                                                                      Nationals +149 6.00u *win*
                                                                      Brewers +140 6.00u *lose*
                                                                      Twins +135 6.00u *win*
                                                                      White Sox +164 6.00u *lose*
                                                                      now 76-73 +200u
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • bombCanada
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 08-19-09
                                                                        • 965

                                                                        #245
                                                                        oops double post
                                                                        Comment
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