Good morning Contrarians. We are getting closer.
-
Comment -
Hard to imagine with a foot of snow on the ground.Comment -
Just read through all the pages in this thread, little did I know that reading 5 pages would take me 30 minutes. Good, elaborate commentary here...please accept my membership to this fine group of lads Sir. Thanks in advance.Comment -
I'm getting excited. Pitchers and catchers report really soon. Makes me tingly all over
Comment -
Mr. Xelance, welcome to the Contrarian Mafia my friend. I am glad to see that you are impressed with our cast of characters. We are insightful, informative and downright entertaining. Oh ya, we do pick winners. Feel free to chime in at any time. Opposing views are welcomed within the bounds of good taste.
The ContrarianComment -
Manny and Damon to the Rays. Does anyone know if those signings affected the pennant or W.S lines?Comment -
We have TheJewBear, now we need TheDrewBear.Comment -
TheDrewBear has gone M.I.A over the last few months due to actual workComment -
Baseball season is almost here.
We can now see the deer moving around in the back yard.
Comment -
A's Re-Raise?
The A's apparently feel they have a hand. They're not only in the pot - but contemplating a little raise here.
OAK is looking to further improve by upgrading at 3rd base - both offensively and defensively. They missed on Beltre, but are now talking to Seattle re Chone Figgins for Kouzmanoff. The net effect there would be +D, +OBP and + team speed.
Although Texas has position on them - the A's are putting more money in the pot. These guys seem to be serious.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-28-11, 12:44 PM.Comment -
I like this Beating Baseball guy. Nice addition to the Upper Tower.Comment -
BB, you have full access to the tower. Should you not create a thread for the season, you have a home here.
The ContrarianComment -
Thanks for the kind words, gentlemen. And thank you 5’s for the clubhouse key.
Haven’t made a decision re putting up a season thread - but I’ll be a regular here at Pair of 5’s Contrarian Bar no matter what.
It’s my kind a’ place: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Fulz4ytZ54
Comment -
Good morning Contrarians. I have been checking daily on the additional futures relating to the divisional races. As you know, they have not been posted on 5Dimes as of yet. Also, the season win props are forthcoming. It will be interesting to see the numbers. Let me know if you see them before the contrarian radar gets them on lockdown.
Comment -
Hey Pair of 5's,
Im new to the thread (and forum), this looks like a great thread and I am looking forward to baseball after reading these 1st 5 pages, Hope you guys have a great season. I plan on following all year if you dont mind. Great stuff both 5's and Beating Baseball.Comment -
I have a sneaky suspicion that Phillies Under (season win total) will be a juicy future this year.
Feel like the load up on the Over will be very popular this year and Vegas will be willing to gamble.Comment -
Although no club has won more than 100 since 2004, I've heard speculation on the 2011 Phils' opening number as high as 105. If they peg them up there near .650, I would have to take the UN as well.
With a number like that, you are pricing for perfection.
But then again, I would have bet my house that the Seattle Mariners would not win more than 115 ten years ago - and they only had Jamie Moyer, Freddy Garcia, Aaron Sele and Paul Abbott. So what do I know?
(The 2001 A's won 102 games yet finished 14 games behind the Mariners, who won 116 for .716 in Ichiro's rookie year.)Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-30-11, 09:47 AM.Comment -
lots of nice talking going on in here
GLComment -
The Contrarians will be banging the 105 to the under side. FYI, go over to Dexter's thread. He puts up three scenarios from last year with success percentages only without including the prices he layed on the selection. The Contrarians will be watching from the Tower and potentially fading the hell out of his selections. Don't tip him off. Ssshhh. Come back BB here and let me know what you think.Comment -
Great discussion in this thread, look forward to more as the season nears.Comment -
BB great post. Where do you find this crap, are you a walking almanac or you got some websites?Comment -
-
Baseball Diamonds
While we're counting down the days until April 1, I'd like to suggest we pass the time with a little project that might sharpen up our baseball capping for the coming season and possibly for seasons to come.
The idea would be for each of us to once in a while contribute a single, basic general tenet or concept that we have found in the course of our MLB handicapping to hold true. It doesn't have to be anything super clever or groundbreaking - just true. It could range from something very simple/obvious to something more sophisticated which might have application in specific, infrequent matchup situations - as long as you believe it to be true and to have some predictive value in making selections.
When someone puts an idea out there - anyone here could then either question it, refute its value or accept it as a valid addition to his own list of "Baseball Diamonds."
In doing this, I think we could - by the time the season opens - develop a pretty strong list of fundamental principles that could benefit the play of everyone here.
I'll start with this fairly middle-range example from my own experience which comes to mind after recent discussions regarding the Phils veteran rotation -
Bad outings by starting pitchers happen. As we all know, they can happen to any pitcher - young or old. But there is something relating to disastrous starts that I have found to have consistent, predictive value and that is this:
After a really bad pitching performance - independent of his talent - a young, inexperienced pitcher is far more likely to follow it with another poor performance than is a veteran pitcher.
Personally, even if I like an Ubaldo Jiminez' stuff more than a Randy Wolf or a Derek Lowe, I last year would have been more inclined to stay away from or fade Jimenez coming off a really bad start whereas I'd be looking to bet Wolf or Lowe after a bad one.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-31-11, 02:24 AM.Comment -
Let the Contrarian take a crack at it. First let's start off with the statement that the selections are contrarian in nature. One of my favorite angles is to look at what the square minded individuals will see statistically to make "their balls clang".
Most players like to be on the Over. This is a clear bias as you know. On totals plays, the square money will be looking at ERA. I look for a combined ERA to exceed the bookies total line. In addition, the squares will be looking at O/U records. I look for pitchers that have on over bias. The third part of the angle, the bookies put a premium on the under, enticing Joe bettor to slam the over.
Team A 8.5 -105
Team B 8.5 -115
Let's review:
Combined ERA > the total
Bias Over records for starting pitchers
Premium on the Under
When they line up and they do, the Contrarians swoop down, pay the premium, and take the under.
The ContrarianLast edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-31-11, 07:24 AM.Comment -
It's a very basic concept but I generally shy away from betting road favorites in MLB.Comment -
5's and Lock -
Glad to see you guys have an interest in the project. I think that doing this can be a powerful generator of constructive discussion. We might also include perspectives that are not exclusive to baseball - but have broader application to wagering in other sports or to gambling in general.
The reason I say this is that I've always looked at baseball handicapping as having two components - the baseball side and the gambling side. You really need to know and understand both to be successful. I've seen so many guys over the years who were really great baseball guys but bad gamblers (you might call it the Pete Rose Syndrome). Needless to say they got killed. On the other hand, I've known some great gamblers who just could not beat baseball because they did not kinow the game.
On just the points made in your two previous posts, I could go on a long time on the dynamics behind them and the underlying "why" that makes them valid concepts or considerations when betting baseball, but I'll save that for later.
Botom line on the project: It's easy to get in a handicapping rut and look at things only one way. A project like this can serve to open our minds up to some degree (don't want to open your mind up too much, however, as something may fall out). Also - I think it will demonstrate that there's more than one way to skin a cat (if you're into that sort of thing).
Don't have time now, but I'd soon like to put forth here why I think the contrarian approach is not only effective but particularly well suited to betting baseball.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-31-11, 04:05 PM.Comment
