Pair of 5s Sir 2011 MLB
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Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#106Comment -
EXhoosier10SBR MVP
- 07-06-09
- 3122
#107Pair, can you go a little deeper into your explanation for the Astros pick? Happ and Wandy seem to be their best pitchers, and even so, they both have limited upside. Pence is a solid player, and Lee is due for a bounce-back this year. Hall, Barmes, and Bourne are all average players while the rest are safely below.
On top of that, Milwaukee, STL, and the Reds all have pretty solid teams and the chances Houston has of beating two of them seems low. I know last year with the reds, their only real competitor was STL. Houston just seems like too much a long shot to even consider. Am I missing something?Comment -
BeatingBaseballSBR Wise Guy
- 06-30-09
- 904
#108Found this the funniest MLB interaction of the day yesterday - from a press conference before the Boston Baseball Writers Assoc. dinner at the Westin Copley last night - a young TV reporter asked Red Sox mgr. Terry Francona a question:
TV reporter: "With the new additions this year, what are the chances of actually getting a championship?
Francona: "Are you from Vegas? ... How do I know?"Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-21-11, 02:14 PM.Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#109Luv it!Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#110Luv it!Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#111Pair, can you go a little deeper into your explanation for the Astros pick? Happ and Wandy seem to be their best pitchers, and even so, they both have limited upside. Pence is a solid player, and Lee is due for a bounce-back this year. Hall, Barmes, and Bourne are all average players while the rest are safely below.
On top of that, Milwaukee, STL, and the Reds all have pretty solid teams and the chances Houston has of beating two of them seems low. I know last year with the reds, their only real competitor was STL. Houston just seems like too much a long shot to even consider. Am I missing something?
The ContrarianComment -
BeatingBaseballSBR Wise Guy
- 06-30-09
- 904
#112As you know, 5's, futures are not my cup of tea - but when I look at the relative value of the 100 to 1 on Houston to pull off the miracle vs the 40 to 1 on the A's to do so - I have to say that I like the latter play a whole lot better.
If one of those two clubs is going to catch lightening in a bottle in 2011, I'd price the A's at more than -250 to be the one to do it.
We'll have to see if there are any late trades going into spring training, but the more I look at the NL Central the better I like the Brewers. I actually have them a slight favorite to win that division right now although they are currently catching a longer price than both the Reds and the Cards in the futures. When you're projecting Randy Wolf as your #4 starter, it says a lot about the quality of your rotation. And with Braun/Hart in LF/RF + both Prince Fielder and Weeks in the final year of their deals the offense figures to give those pitchers a lot to work with.
I wish you luck with the the Astros - and I'll probably be betting them some with Brett Myers on 5 inning plays - but I'll have a hard time trusting their other starters or bullpen with money - and, unless Carlos Lee has a miraculous turn around, their lineup could probably take BP in the hotel lobby and not break anything.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-21-11, 07:30 PM.Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#113Selection
Punched a ticket for the following:
Oakland Athletics +1700 to win Pennant
Oakland Athletics +4000 to win World Series
WOW, I just made a MLB wager.Comment -
BeatingBaseballSBR Wise Guy
- 06-30-09
- 904
#114May the spirit of Connie Mack be with you.
(attempted to paste the white elephant for you - but couldn't get the damn thing to work)Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-22-11, 12:34 AM.Comment -
EXhoosier10SBR MVP
- 07-06-09
- 3122
#115Im with you on the A's pair. Good luck to usComment -
TheLockSBR Posting Legend
- 04-06-08
- 14427
#117I just bet the A's @ +1700 and +4000 but I also bet FLA +2000 and +4500 which I like a little more than the A's future.
FLA can win the Wild Card and if they do, they're pitching staff matches up just fine with anyones (yes, even PHI).Last edited by TheLock; 01-22-11, 03:10 PM.Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#118Congrats, Mr. Lock. Is there any other future tickets to punch out there. Get on the record, here and now.Last edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-22-11, 04:05 PM.Comment -
TheJewBearSBR High Roller
- 10-25-10
- 145
#119I may have to hop on TheLock's FLA picks....can't root for the fish this year and not have a little long term action!Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#120TheLock is always right on regarding the Marlins. It seems every year, a prop with the Fish, comes thru. I usually go with one team in each league, I might have to go with the Stros and Fish. Still awaiting my National selection.Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#121Selection
Punched a ticket on the following:
Astros +10000 to win the World Series
Astros +4500 to win the NL PennantComment -
betmeSBR Wise Guy
- 10-08-09
- 998
#122good luck this year pair5s.. do u have a record for past year ?Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
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BeatingBaseballSBR Wise Guy
- 06-30-09
- 904
#124Wish you all the luck in the world with the Stros plays, 5's.
Looking at that roster, however, not sure there's enough luck in the world to get them to the post season.
But - hey - at least no one can call you a front runner.Comment -
mlbSBR Posting Legend
- 12-04-09
- 10509
#125Found this the funniest MLB interaction of the day yesterday - from a press conference before the Boston Baseball Writers Assoc. dinner at the Westin Copley last night - a young TV reporter asked Red Sox mgr. Terry Francona a question: TV reporter: "With the new additions this year, what are the chances of actually getting a championship? Francona: "Are you from Vegas? ... How do I know?"Comment -
TheLockSBR Posting Legend
- 04-06-08
- 14427
#126One day closer to baseball seasonComment -
vero8oSBR Rookie
- 01-15-11
- 9
#127I will wait for the season! Welcome!Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#129I see the Astros came down from 100-1 to 85 to 1. The money is pouring in.Comment -
ElLoco23Restricted User
- 01-22-11
- 233
#130I enjoy reading this thread, great info, can't wait for baseball even more now.Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#131
Seriously, welcome to SBR and the Tower. Feel free to chime in on whatever.Comment -
stevenashModerator
- 01-17-11
- 65450
#132
I am a newbie here, but I am a baseball and fantasy baseball guru myself.
I am looking forward to chatting with you this season.
Two of my coups last season.
Drafting Car-Go in the eight round, and my 100 dollar Texas Ranger to win american league pennant.
Right now I am trying to find someone, or a book to take this wager.
I am willing to bet that Philly will not lose more than four straight games at anytime this season.Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#133Good luck to you sir.
I am a newbie here, but I am a baseball and fantasy baseball guru myself.
I am looking forward to chatting with you this season.
Two of my coups last season.
Drafting Car-Go in the eight round, and my 100 dollar Texas Ranger to win american league pennant.
Right now I am trying to find someone, or a book to take this wager.
I am willing to bet that Philly will not lose more than four straight games at anytime this season.
Welcome to the thread.
The ContrarianComment -
TheLockSBR Posting Legend
- 04-06-08
- 14427
#134
How many premier teams lose 5 games a row in a season? I don't have statistical data to back myself up but my gut tells me that it is very rare.
I doubt you'll find that prop anywhere.
I do know this; many guys will get buried this year blindly betting the big chalk on the Phillies.Comment -
BeatingBaseballSBR Wise Guy
- 06-30-09
- 904
#135Stevenash -
You are "willing to bet that Philly will not lose more than four straight games at anytime this season."
At what price?Comment -
stevenashModerator
- 01-17-11
- 65450
#136I got a taker 6 years ago with Moose and the Yanks.
I made the same bet, I got +140 that the Yanks ( will not lose more than 4 straight)
Long story short, Yanks had one 4 game losing streak, a couple of three gamers.
Phils with their rotation will not lose 5 straight all season.
Those 4 aces will not lose 4 times in a row, each and every one of them are stoppers.Comment -
TheJewBearSBR High Roller
- 10-25-10
- 145
#137Seeing Steve Nash post gives me a brief segway to post my latest contrarian NBA picks.
Knicks +3500....to win the East , before Melo gets there.
Clippers +30000...to win the west, hoping The Blake is the first to get the Clipps thereComment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#138Gentlemen, we have received information from the Tower that someone is posting basketball picks on this thread. We are placing the premises in a lockdown status.Comment -
BeatingBaseballSBR Wise Guy
- 06-30-09
- 904
#139Stevenash -
I share your great respect for the stopping power of the current Phillies rotation and we all recognize that starting pitching is the single biggest factor in baseball success. But there are, of course, at least some other team factors that can come into play, not the least of which is the bullpen, when it comes to slumps and losing streaks.
One way to look at your proposition is this: Lets' assume the Phils are going to be the great club we all think they will be and will win, say, 103 games. That means they will play to a .636 winning percentage.
If every time they take the field they have on average a .636 chance of winning - they also have a .363 chance of losing. If an event that has a .363 chance of coming up L rather than W in one attempt, it has a .363 squared (or .1318) probablility of coming up L twice in a row, a .363 to the power of 3 (or .0478) probability of coming up L three times in a row and a .363 to the 4th power (or .0174) chance of coming up L four times in a row.
If we look at each of the first 159 games of the season as the first game of a separate 4 game series, our .636 Phiillies club will have 159 chances to lose 4 in a row. If those .636 Phils play to the average mathematical expectation they should go 0-4 in one of those 159 separate trials at a rate of .0174 or 2.77 times during the regular season.
From that initial analysis, I would lean toward adjusting the 2.77 number downward because I believe, as you surely do as well, that any of these particular starting pitchers will step up after a loss and be even tougher to beat than the .636. But even that adjustment must also be to some degree offset in consideration of possible injuries and the occasional use of a 5th starter.
All in all, I would seriously consider laying even money that the 2011 Phils lose 4 in a row at least twice during the regular season.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-25-11, 07:12 PM.Comment -
Pair of 5s SirSBR MVP
- 04-20-08
- 4960
#140Stevenash -
I share your great respect for the stopping power of the current Phillies rotation and we all recognize that starting pitching is the single biggest factor in baseball success. But there are, of course, at least some other team factors that can come into play, not the least of which is the bullpen, when it comes to slumps and losing streaks.
One way to look at your proposition is this: Lets' assume the Phils are going to be the great club we all think they will be and will win, say, 103 games. That means they will play to a .636 winning percentage.
If every time they take the field they have on average a .636 chance of winning - they also have a .363 chance of losing. If an event that has a .363 chance of coming up L rather than W in one attempt, it has a .363 squared (or .1318) probablility of coming up L twice in a row, a .363 to the power of 3 (or .0478) probability of coming up L three times in a row and a .363 to the 4th power (or .0174) chance of coming up L four times in a row.
If we look at each of the first 159 games of the season as the first game of a separate 4 game series, our .636 Phiillies club will have 158 chances to lose 4 in a row. If those .636 Phils play to the average mathematical expectation they should go 0-4 in one of those 158 separate trials at a rate of .0174 or 2.74 times during the regular season.
From that initial analysis, I would lean toward adjusting the 2.74 number downward because I believe, as you surely do as well, that any of these particular starting pitchers will step up after a loss and be even tougher to beat than the .636. But even that adjustment must also be to some degree offset in consideration of possible injuries and the occasional use of a 5th starter.
All in all, I would seriously consider laying even money that the 2011 Phils lose 4 in a row at least twice during the regular season.
Thus far you have provided the "Phillies -175 theory"
and
"The Four in a row Phillie Flop (beautiful alliteration, ay)
The ContrarianComment
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