Pair of 5s Sir 2011 MLB

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  • Pair of 5s Sir
    SBR MVP
    • 04-20-08
    • 4960

    #106
    Originally posted by EXhoosier10
    Pair, I highly recommend taking a look at betting on Matchbook. From a quick glance, I only saw maybe 1 in 5 games with a line of -110 or worse for a single team. If you match someone else's bet, you pay 1% (which still makes a -105 bet beat what you would have had to pay at -110), or if you lay your own odds, you make .2%. With College basketball, there may not be as many bettors and lines might not be as good as other sports, but with baseball and NFL, it is very rare where I don't see games +105 on a side when more mainstream sites give -110 on both.

    Even if you rarely use it, a few bucks here and there always adds up.

    Hopefully we have a good year this year and we can make some money. I really like the A's bet, though I'm not so sure the 'Stros have any chance.
    Thanks Hoosier, I have matchbook account. However with recent issues with matchbook and it's Wsex connections, I am hesitant. Perhaps things will change.

    Welcome to the Tower.
    Comment
    • EXhoosier10
      SBR MVP
      • 07-06-09
      • 3122

      #107
      Pair, can you go a little deeper into your explanation for the Astros pick? Happ and Wandy seem to be their best pitchers, and even so, they both have limited upside. Pence is a solid player, and Lee is due for a bounce-back this year. Hall, Barmes, and Bourne are all average players while the rest are safely below.

      On top of that, Milwaukee, STL, and the Reds all have pretty solid teams and the chances Houston has of beating two of them seems low. I know last year with the reds, their only real competitor was STL. Houston just seems like too much a long shot to even consider. Am I missing something?
      Comment
      • BeatingBaseball
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 06-30-09
        • 904

        #108
        Found this the funniest MLB interaction of the day yesterday - from a press conference before the Boston Baseball Writers Assoc. dinner at the Westin Copley last night - a young TV reporter asked Red Sox mgr. Terry Francona a question:

        TV reporter: "With the new additions this year, what are the chances of actually getting a championship?

        Francona: "Are you from Vegas? ... How do I know?"
        Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-21-11, 02:14 PM.
        Comment
        • Pair of 5s Sir
          SBR MVP
          • 04-20-08
          • 4960

          #109
          Luv it!
          Comment
          • Pair of 5s Sir
            SBR MVP
            • 04-20-08
            • 4960

            #110
            Luv it!
            Comment
            • Pair of 5s Sir
              SBR MVP
              • 04-20-08
              • 4960

              #111
              Originally posted by EXhoosier10
              Pair, can you go a little deeper into your explanation for the Astros pick? Happ and Wandy seem to be their best pitchers, and even so, they both have limited upside. Pence is a solid player, and Lee is due for a bounce-back this year. Hall, Barmes, and Bourne are all average players while the rest are safely below.

              On top of that, Milwaukee, STL, and the Reds all have pretty solid teams and the chances Houston has of beating two of them seems low. I know last year with the reds, their only real competitor was STL. Houston just seems like too much a long shot to even consider. Am I missing something?
              My future selections, like all other selections are contrarian in nature to start off with. During the previous season, I look for something at the end of the season, that tells me if "something" would of turned out differently, perhaps their performance would be better. The Astros got off to a horrific start. Truly horrible. At the 100-1 price and lesser prices at the Division, and Pennant, perhaps the outhouse to the penthouse can yield tons of balloons. Logically, you are on the money. But that's not what I do as you know.

              The Contrarian
              Comment
              • BeatingBaseball
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 06-30-09
                • 904

                #112
                As you know, 5's, futures are not my cup of tea - but when I look at the relative value of the 100 to 1 on Houston to pull off the miracle vs the 40 to 1 on the A's to do so - I have to say that I like the latter play a whole lot better.

                If one of those two clubs is going to catch lightening in a bottle in 2011, I'd price the A's at more than -250 to be the one to do it.

                We'll have to see if there are any late trades going into spring training, but the more I look at the NL Central the better I like the Brewers. I actually have them a slight favorite to win that division right now although they are currently catching a longer price than both the Reds and the Cards in the futures. When you're projecting Randy Wolf as your #4 starter, it says a lot about the quality of your rotation. And with Braun/Hart in LF/RF + both Prince Fielder and Weeks in the final year of their deals the offense figures to give those pitchers a lot to work with.

                I wish you luck with the the Astros - and I'll probably be betting them some with Brett Myers on 5 inning plays - but I'll have a hard time trusting their other starters or bullpen with money - and, unless Carlos Lee has a miraculous turn around, their lineup could probably take BP in the hotel lobby and not break anything.
                Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-21-11, 07:30 PM.
                Comment
                • Pair of 5s Sir
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-20-08
                  • 4960

                  #113
                  Selection

                  Punched a ticket for the following:

                  Oakland Athletics +1700 to win Pennant
                  Oakland Athletics +4000 to win World Series

                  WOW, I just made a MLB wager.
                  Comment
                  • BeatingBaseball
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 06-30-09
                    • 904

                    #114
                    May the spirit of Connie Mack be with you.

                    (attempted to paste the white elephant for you - but couldn't get the damn thing to work)
                    Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-22-11, 12:34 AM.
                    Comment
                    • EXhoosier10
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-06-09
                      • 3122

                      #115
                      Im with you on the A's pair. Good luck to us
                      Comment
                      • Pair of 5s Sir
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-20-08
                        • 4960

                        #116
                        Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                        Im with you on the A's pair. Good luck to us
                        Throw a few bucks on the Stros to show solidarity as a Contrarian.
                        Comment
                        • TheLock
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 04-06-08
                          • 14427

                          #117
                          I just bet the A's @ +1700 and +4000 but I also bet FLA +2000 and +4500 which I like a little more than the A's future.

                          FLA can win the Wild Card and if they do, they're pitching staff matches up just fine with anyones (yes, even PHI).
                          Last edited by TheLock; 01-22-11, 03:10 PM.
                          Comment
                          • Pair of 5s Sir
                            SBR MVP
                            • 04-20-08
                            • 4960

                            #118
                            Originally posted by TheLock
                            I just bet the A's @ +1700 and +4000 but I also bet FLA +2000 and +4500 which I like a little more than the A's future.

                            FLA can win the Wild Card and if they do, they're pitching staff matches up just fine with anyones (yes, even PHI).
                            Congrats, Mr. Lock. Is there any other future tickets to punch out there. Get on the record, here and now.
                            Last edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-22-11, 04:05 PM.
                            Comment
                            • TheJewBear
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 10-25-10
                              • 145

                              #119
                              I may have to hop on TheLock's FLA picks....can't root for the fish this year and not have a little long term action!
                              Comment
                              • Pair of 5s Sir
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-20-08
                                • 4960

                                #120
                                Originally posted by TheJewBear
                                I may have to hop on TheLock's FLA picks....can't root for the fish this year and not have a little long term action!
                                TheLock is always right on regarding the Marlins. It seems every year, a prop with the Fish, comes thru. I usually go with one team in each league, I might have to go with the Stros and Fish. Still awaiting my National selection.
                                Comment
                                • Pair of 5s Sir
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-20-08
                                  • 4960

                                  #121
                                  Selection

                                  Punched a ticket on the following:

                                  Astros +10000 to win the World Series
                                  Astros +4500 to win the NL Pennant
                                  Comment
                                  • betme
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 10-08-09
                                    • 998

                                    #122
                                    good luck this year pair5s.. do u have a record for past year ?
                                    Comment
                                    • Pair of 5s Sir
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-20-08
                                      • 4960

                                      #123
                                      Originally posted by betme
                                      good luck this year pair5s.. do u have a record for past year ?
                                      Last year was very challenging. It was met with an interrruption. I had to care for my father who had cancer and subsequently died weeks later. Previous years, between +9 - +25 units
                                      Comment
                                      • BeatingBaseball
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 06-30-09
                                        • 904

                                        #124
                                        Wish you all the luck in the world with the Stros plays, 5's.

                                        Looking at that roster, however, not sure there's enough luck in the world to get them to the post season.

                                        But - hey - at least no one can call you a front runner.
                                        Comment
                                        • mlb
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 12-04-09
                                          • 10509

                                          #125
                                          Originally posted by BeatingBaseball
                                          Found this the funniest MLB interaction of the day yesterday - from a press conference before the Boston Baseball Writers Assoc. dinner at the Westin Copley last night - a young TV reporter asked Red Sox mgr. Terry Francona a question: TV reporter: "With the new additions this year, what are the chances of actually getting a championship? Francona: "Are you from Vegas? ... How do I know?"
                                          thats always
                                          Comment
                                          • TheLock
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 04-06-08
                                            • 14427

                                            #126
                                            One day closer to baseball season
                                            Comment
                                            • vero8o
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 01-15-11
                                              • 9

                                              #127
                                              I will wait for the season! Welcome!
                                              Comment
                                              • Pair of 5s Sir
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 04-20-08
                                                • 4960

                                                #128
                                                Originally posted by vero8o
                                                I will wait for the season! Welcome!
                                                Welcome Vero to the Contrarian Observation Tower.

                                                Beware O Contrare
                                                Comment
                                                • Pair of 5s Sir
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 04-20-08
                                                  • 4960

                                                  #129
                                                  I see the Astros came down from 100-1 to 85 to 1. The money is pouring in.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ElLoco23
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 01-22-11
                                                    • 233

                                                    #130
                                                    I enjoy reading this thread, great info, can't wait for baseball even more now.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Pair of 5s Sir
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 04-20-08
                                                      • 4960

                                                      #131
                                                      Originally posted by ElLoco23
                                                      I enjoy reading this thread, great info, can't wait for baseball even more now.
                                                      Welcome to the Contrarian Observation Tower. You will feel at home here for the fact that we have many "Locos" on board.

                                                      Seriously, welcome to SBR and the Tower. Feel free to chime in on whatever.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stevenash
                                                        Moderator
                                                        • 01-17-11
                                                        • 65450

                                                        #132
                                                        Originally posted by Pair of 5s Sir
                                                        Punched a ticket for the following:

                                                        Oakland Athletics +1700 to win Pennant
                                                        Oakland Athletics +4000 to win World Series

                                                        WOW, I just made a MLB wager.
                                                        Good luck to you sir.
                                                        I am a newbie here, but I am a baseball and fantasy baseball guru myself.
                                                        I am looking forward to chatting with you this season.

                                                        Two of my coups last season.
                                                        Drafting Car-Go in the eight round, and my 100 dollar Texas Ranger to win american league pennant.

                                                        Right now I am trying to find someone, or a book to take this wager.

                                                        I am willing to bet that Philly will not lose more than four straight games at anytime this season.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Pair of 5s Sir
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 04-20-08
                                                          • 4960

                                                          #133
                                                          Originally posted by stevenash
                                                          Good luck to you sir.
                                                          I am a newbie here, but I am a baseball and fantasy baseball guru myself.
                                                          I am looking forward to chatting with you this season.

                                                          Two of my coups last season.
                                                          Drafting Car-Go in the eight round, and my 100 dollar Texas Ranger to win american league pennant.

                                                          Right now I am trying to find someone, or a book to take this wager.

                                                          I am willing to bet that Philly will not lose more than four straight games at anytime this season.
                                                          Last season I selected two teams prior to season start, Twins and Reds, laddered both in the post season, you know the rest.

                                                          Welcome to the thread.

                                                          The Contrarian
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TheLock
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 04-06-08
                                                            • 14427

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by stevenash



                                                            Right now I am trying to find someone, or a book to take this wager.

                                                            I am willing to bet that Philly will not lose more than four straight games at anytime this season.

                                                            How many premier teams lose 5 games a row in a season? I don't have statistical data to back myself up but my gut tells me that it is very rare.

                                                            I doubt you'll find that prop anywhere.

                                                            I do know this; many guys will get buried this year blindly betting the big chalk on the Phillies.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BeatingBaseball
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 06-30-09
                                                              • 904

                                                              #135
                                                              Stevenash -

                                                              You are "willing to bet that Philly will not lose more than four straight games at anytime this season."

                                                              At what price?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • stevenash
                                                                Moderator
                                                                • 01-17-11
                                                                • 65450

                                                                #136
                                                                I got a taker 6 years ago with Moose and the Yanks.
                                                                I made the same bet, I got +140 that the Yanks ( will not lose more than 4 straight)
                                                                Long story short, Yanks had one 4 game losing streak, a couple of three gamers.

                                                                Phils with their rotation will not lose 5 straight all season.
                                                                Those 4 aces will not lose 4 times in a row, each and every one of them are stoppers.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • TheJewBear
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 10-25-10
                                                                  • 145

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Seeing Steve Nash post gives me a brief segway to post my latest contrarian NBA picks.

                                                                  Knicks +3500....to win the East , before Melo gets there.
                                                                  Clippers +30000...to win the west, hoping The Blake is the first to get the Clipps there
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Pair of 5s Sir
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 04-20-08
                                                                    • 4960

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Gentlemen, we have received information from the Tower that someone is posting basketball picks on this thread. We are placing the premises in a lockdown status.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • BeatingBaseball
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 06-30-09
                                                                      • 904

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Stevenash -

                                                                      I share your great respect for the stopping power of the current Phillies rotation and we all recognize that starting pitching is the single biggest factor in baseball success. But there are, of course, at least some other team factors that can come into play, not the least of which is the bullpen, when it comes to slumps and losing streaks.

                                                                      One way to look at your proposition is this: Lets' assume the Phils are going to be the great club we all think they will be and will win, say, 103 games. That means they will play to a .636 winning percentage.

                                                                      If every time they take the field they have on average a .636 chance of winning - they also have a .363 chance of losing. If an event that has a .363 chance of coming up L rather than W in one attempt, it has a .363 squared (or .1318) probablility of coming up L twice in a row, a .363 to the power of 3 (or .0478) probability of coming up L three times in a row and a .363 to the 4th power (or .0174) chance of coming up L four times in a row.

                                                                      If we look at each of the first 159 games of the season as the first game of a separate 4 game series, our .636 Phiillies club will have 159 chances to lose 4 in a row. If those .636 Phils play to the average mathematical expectation they should go 0-4 in one of those 159 separate trials at a rate of .0174 or 2.77 times during the regular season.

                                                                      From that initial analysis, I would lean toward adjusting the 2.77 number downward because I believe, as you surely do as well, that any of these particular starting pitchers will step up after a loss and be even tougher to beat than the .636. But even that adjustment must also be to some degree offset in consideration of possible injuries and the occasional use of a 5th starter.

                                                                      All in all, I would seriously consider laying even money that the 2011 Phils lose 4 in a row at least twice during the regular season.
                                                                      Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-25-11, 07:12 PM.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Pair of 5s Sir
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 04-20-08
                                                                        • 4960

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Originally posted by BeatingBaseball
                                                                        Stevenash -

                                                                        I share your great respect for the stopping power of the current Phillies rotation and we all recognize that starting pitching is the single biggest factor in baseball success. But there are, of course, at least some other team factors that can come into play, not the least of which is the bullpen, when it comes to slumps and losing streaks.

                                                                        One way to look at your proposition is this: Lets' assume the Phils are going to be the great club we all think they will be and will win, say, 103 games. That means they will play to a .636 winning percentage.

                                                                        If every time they take the field they have on average a .636 chance of winning - they also have a .363 chance of losing. If an event that has a .363 chance of coming up L rather than W in one attempt, it has a .363 squared (or .1318) probablility of coming up L twice in a row, a .363 to the power of 3 (or .0478) probability of coming up L three times in a row and a .363 to the 4th power (or .0174) chance of coming up L four times in a row.

                                                                        If we look at each of the first 159 games of the season as the first game of a separate 4 game series, our .636 Phiillies club will have 158 chances to lose 4 in a row. If those .636 Phils play to the average mathematical expectation they should go 0-4 in one of those 158 separate trials at a rate of .0174 or 2.74 times during the regular season.

                                                                        From that initial analysis, I would lean toward adjusting the 2.74 number downward because I believe, as you surely do as well, that any of these particular starting pitchers will step up after a loss and be even tougher to beat than the .636. But even that adjustment must also be to some degree offset in consideration of possible injuries and the occasional use of a 5th starter.

                                                                        All in all, I would seriously consider laying even money that the 2011 Phils lose 4 in a row at least twice during the regular season.
                                                                        Thank you BB for that insightful analysis.

                                                                        Thus far you have provided the "Phillies -175 theory"
                                                                        and
                                                                        "The Four in a row Phillie Flop (beautiful alliteration, ay)

                                                                        The Contrarian
                                                                        Comment
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