There is 3 months before the regular season starts its engines. So, from high atop the Contrarian Observation Tower, we start the thread and give it a whirl.
Welcome all, to the Pair of 5s Sir 2011 MLB selections thread, where we sit atop the Contrarian Observation Tower. For those of you who have participated in the past, there is no hype, no BS, just straight out legit selections.
My unit count will be based on a true count. One unit for one game. For example, if selecting the favorite at -160, it will be risking 1.60 units to win 1.0 units. Conversely a selection on a +160, I will be risking 1.0 units to win 1.6 units. This is the true blue way of recording a true record. Each thread follower would be able to determine how much they would profit or not by applying a dollar amount per unit.
At this point the signature feature on the site is inoperable. In the past I would include a record, including W-L, % and unit count. I am not sure how I will handle the recordation but I will arrive at something. Perhaps, I will post to the spreadsheet but that is not a favorite of mine, operationally speaking. With mobile entries, the spreadsheet is awkward. Nonetheless, I will come up with something.
Last year was unique in the fact that, the selections started off to a -18 unit swing at the start of the season. We were able to bring the count to even and then encountered a family illness that resulted in the passing of my father, took 2 months off and then the count floated back to about -9 units at the end of the season. Needless to say a confusing year capping and personally.
My selection will include sides, RL and totals. My plays are contrarian in nature. These are some of the factors considered that lead up to the selection.
What information does the public see, that makes the line, ie. ERA, streaks, and standings. This information for the novice players is overrated. Does the line make sense, particularly on the favorite. Oftentimes, the public will use the above, overrated information to pound the favorite. They see the information, and move the line accordingly to no success. Head to head records, where the line is lower than expected, for the dominating team. There are several other triggers but I won't bore you.
Disciplined money management is key, no more than 3% of bankroll will be wagered on any particular game.
All posts will be posted to the thread prior to gametime. You can also follow on Twitter, by request only.
As always, opposing points of view are welcomed. The thread goes from the start of the season and ends approximately half way thru the season, give or take a couple of weeks either way.
Beware O Contrare
Welcome all, to the Pair of 5s Sir 2011 MLB selections thread, where we sit atop the Contrarian Observation Tower. For those of you who have participated in the past, there is no hype, no BS, just straight out legit selections.
My unit count will be based on a true count. One unit for one game. For example, if selecting the favorite at -160, it will be risking 1.60 units to win 1.0 units. Conversely a selection on a +160, I will be risking 1.0 units to win 1.6 units. This is the true blue way of recording a true record. Each thread follower would be able to determine how much they would profit or not by applying a dollar amount per unit.
At this point the signature feature on the site is inoperable. In the past I would include a record, including W-L, % and unit count. I am not sure how I will handle the recordation but I will arrive at something. Perhaps, I will post to the spreadsheet but that is not a favorite of mine, operationally speaking. With mobile entries, the spreadsheet is awkward. Nonetheless, I will come up with something.
Last year was unique in the fact that, the selections started off to a -18 unit swing at the start of the season. We were able to bring the count to even and then encountered a family illness that resulted in the passing of my father, took 2 months off and then the count floated back to about -9 units at the end of the season. Needless to say a confusing year capping and personally.
My selection will include sides, RL and totals. My plays are contrarian in nature. These are some of the factors considered that lead up to the selection.
What information does the public see, that makes the line, ie. ERA, streaks, and standings. This information for the novice players is overrated. Does the line make sense, particularly on the favorite. Oftentimes, the public will use the above, overrated information to pound the favorite. They see the information, and move the line accordingly to no success. Head to head records, where the line is lower than expected, for the dominating team. There are several other triggers but I won't bore you.
Disciplined money management is key, no more than 3% of bankroll will be wagered on any particular game.
All posts will be posted to the thread prior to gametime. You can also follow on Twitter, by request only.
As always, opposing points of view are welcomed. The thread goes from the start of the season and ends approximately half way thru the season, give or take a couple of weeks either way.
Beware O Contrare
. Seriously, every team basically wins 50, loses 50. It is the other 62 that makes the difference. Looking at the money you will be laying with the Phillies, it will take an incredible record to achieve major plus units when selecting Philly. This undoubtedly plays into the hands of the contrarians.