Accuscore MLB Pick System

[boeing power]

Sorry, been out of the country for a few days so have not been posting. I was playing with a few other filters, and did some backtesting back to 8/5 and based on these filters it would have made the record 11-3 about +7.8 Units and none of yesterdays games would have been a play. It filtered out 5 winners, but also 9 losers. I will keep monitoring this and if it looks meaningful will post the filters. For what it's worth, based on my new filters there would be no plays tonight either. I am sure there is still work to do on these, just thought I would post this info.

post it man, would be interesting too see

[HayMan]

Not very scientific, just looking for things in the numbers that are different, what I found was that in the games that fit the filters established, if you take the average of the Vegas Odds % and the Vegas Win % and then determine the difference from the Sim Win and the total of the two teams diff. remain the same as when it was calculated it is a play. If it differs, don't play. Not sure of the significance of this, but it did filter out 9 losers?

Example:
8/9 Vegas odds Vegas WIn Sim Win Dif Ave. Vegas odds/Vegas Win Dif Results
CWS -122 55% 54% 46% -8 54.5% -8.5
Balt 115 47% 46% 54% 8 46.5% 7.5
Total of Dif.= 18 18 PLAY on Balt (Balt)Won

Bos 125 44% 44% 53% 9 44% 9
NYY -133 57% 56% 47% -9 56.5% -8.5
Toal of Dif.= 18 17.5 NO PLAY (Bos)Lost

[HayMan]

Sorry, columns didn't line up in post.

[empty]

1-1 today lucky win in philly
-150 and under 16-11 +5.02
-160 and under 17-13 +2.87

[CHAZ]

We got very luck with the Phillies last night. It was like that all day for me I had Toronto too.

For yall who have different filters to try, post up the filter and the plays for each day.

[CHAZ]

[bigsmitty]

Thanks for the info Chaz. Cheers

[CHAZ]

I'm posting another chart for today. Some of the odds have jumped around.

[HayMan]

Using Chaz's chart (because that is what I have been using) with my filters I have:
Seatle, Florida, Texas, Minn. as my picks.

[FeelinJuiced]

Using Chaz's chart (because that is what I have been using) with my filters I have:
Seatle, Florida, Texas, Minn. as my picks.

Why not Houston? With the line shift it brought them down to -158 which is within the under -160 filter. Just wondering. BOL

[empty]

i will use both charts

-150 and under Sea Fla nym tex
-160 and under min hou

[HayMan]

Feelin, as I said using Chaz's chart, I didn't make any adjustments with the new chart.

[HayMan]

Regardless, good luck to all!

[FeelinJuiced]

Feelin, as I said using Chaz's chart, I didn't make any adjustments with the new chart.

Ahhh got ya... I was confused cause you posted after he posted the second chart. I get what your saying now. Pretty good night for all!!

[Cranium]

Anyway to backtrack on NHL or other sports?
Thanks.. Come on Texas!!

[HayMan]

Empty, nice job on the 5-1, with my filters I went 3-1, so with added filters it is 14-4, +9.8 Units.

[therber2]

Anyway to backtrack on NHL or other sports?
Thanks.. Come on Texas!!

Second that..how about finding some sweet spots for NFL inline or NCAA FB?

[therber2]

Anyway to backtrack on NHL or other sports?
Thanks.. Come on Texas!!

Yeah do inline plays or accuscore plays get archived?

[HayMan]

CHAZ, where do you get the odds from when doing your charts? If I run them myself I want to be consistent. Thanks!

[Bswitz32]

This is great info...Def looks like it will help

THANKS

BOL

[HayMan]

My Saturday Picks

Using the opening lines from "The Spread" here are my picks in green using added filters, the ones shaded in yellow fit the standard filters. I hope this is these are the lines that Chaz is using.

DATE08/14/2010TeamMLVegas oddsVegas WinSim WinDiffSF100504947-2SD-1105251532AZ100504947-2WAS-1105251532Pit132434240-2Hou-1425958602FL141414138-3CIN-1516059623LAD1184645549ATL-128565546-9MKE127444342-1COL-1375857581DET1424141410CWS-1526059590SEA1005049589CLE-110525142-9OAK115474638-8MIN-1255654628BOS-106515041-9TEX-1045150599
TOR1204545527LAA-130575548-7

Not suggesting anyone play, just posting for info.

[Spyder31]

Dont understand that! Who are you saying will win

[jram68]

TEX HOU FL STL NYY look like the picks of the day from this chart

[HayMan]

Sorry that didn't post right, anyway, my picks are SEA, TX, LAD. The additional using only standard filters are MN and TOR. I will have to figure out how to post the chart.

[HayMan]

See attachment for chart

[CHAZ]

Thanks for posting the chart hayman its hard for me during weekends because of my job. I get lines from Bodog.

[Spyder31]

TEX HOU FL STL NYY look like the picks of the day from this chart

thanks

[CHAZ]

[empty]

-150 and under 19-12 +7.07
-160 and under 22-14 +6.92

today
sea and lad

[HayMan]

Just to clarify, picks from standard filters are: SEA, LAD, MIN, TOR, I also had TX on my chart, it is borderline on CHAZ's chart since the ML are both at -105. CHAZ and I have different numbers due to getting ML from two different places, but the picks are the same. Jram, I think you misread my post (it was a mess), Hou, FL, STL, NYY are not plays! I am using some additional filters and I removed MIN and TOR from my plays also.

[empty]

it has been 10 days since i have been keeping track. i will break it down to 3 main filters.
+100 50% 13-6 +10.05
<-150 60% 7-6 -.70
>-151 60% 4-2 +.85
24-14 +10.20
i have rounding down the odds to the 5 or 10 to make it easier to keep track.

[koruma1]

We can see from this list (we can have)?

[Gameboy]

anyone have the plays for today?

[CHAZ]

[koruma1]

thankyou chaz