Accuscore MLB Pick System

BigMama · 08-23-10, 05:24 AM

A great day for all...good luck

kyrie · 08-23-10, 05:39 AM

Originally posted by Gameboy

would u make a small play on tampa or toronto being so close at 59%?

Watching TOR and TP also for SIM to go to 60% before game start...

Odessa · 08-23-10, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by kyrie

*Dogs 50% or better SIM%, +100 or higher
*Favs 60% or better SIM%, Under -150 or -160 depends on the filter utilized

CHI 152
WAS -162 = no play

At Matchbook, WAS available at -157 - therefore it's a play!

CHAZ · 08-23-10, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

What's YTD record for this system Chaz?

I went back since 8/5 all my charts and the record w/ EMPTY's filters is
37-27(+194.55, if each play was 100)

CHAZ · 08-23-10, 10:30 AM

Home teams at 60% or higher and have a positive difference FILTER

35-18 66% (+327.75)

mrkron · 08-23-10, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by Gameboy

would u make a small play on tampa or toronto being so close at 59%?

Stay with the system. Money management is where its at. No play

mrginandtonic · 08-23-10, 10:45 AM

Is this system more accurate with the opening line or later odds?? Or does it make any difference??

CHAZ · 08-23-10, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

Is this system more accurate with the opening line or later odds?? Or does it make any difference??

Work has been really busy for me lately so I haven't been able to post two charts and keep up with it well enough.

bdevil · 08-23-10, 12:31 PM

CHAZ, you can only post the chart before the games start as i'm doin' it first thing in the morning when they list the odds and SIM is available.

mrginandtonic · 08-23-10, 01:07 PM

wouldn't PIT and COL be dog plays??

bdevil · 08-23-10, 01:13 PM

I sticked to the favs.

mrginandtonic · 08-23-10, 01:31 PM

Got it. Thanks.

angtank · 08-23-10, 03:28 PM

I will send the Advisor report for today in a file to your email for 5 points/pm me with your email. Also if any body is interested on going in on a football season package deal with me just hit me up on my pm.

bdevil · 08-23-10, 05:39 PM

Lines updated, DET no longer a good play as the odds went over -160. From the latest lines, the plays for tonight will be SF Giants and TB Rays.

LanceJ4 · 08-23-10, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by bdevil

Lines updated, DET no longer a good play as the odds went over -160. From the latest lines, the plays for tonight will be SF Giants and TB Rays.

bdevil, your math appears to be off: for instance you have the LAA Vegas Odds at 56% when the line is 128....it should be 44, right? At a glance, it must be below 50% when the line is above 100. This had inflated your % difference greatly. It looks like you have done this in all the pairings.

I apologize if I am missing something obvious.

-Lance

empty · 08-23-10, 06:49 PM

lance i think it has something to do with the EU odds. if you add up vegas odds for a game it should be about 103-105.

Mully85 · 08-23-10, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by empty

lance i think it has something to do with the EU odds. if you add up vegas odds for a game it should be about 103-105.

I think I agree with Lance, there's no reason when added up, the vegas odds or "buffer" should reach over 105 MAX. bdevils are adding up to 125??? The math seems to be off on this table. BUT...THANK YOU bdevil for at least doing these tables so we can look at them and learn from them. I've been following this thread for the last few days and you all have some GREAT insight!!!

LanceJ4 · 08-23-10, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by empty

lance i think it has something to do with the EU odds. if you add up vegas odds for a game it should be about 103-105.

Hi empty. I agree they should add up somewhere just over 100%; a typical dime line should equate to about a 2% margin. If you look at the total of bdevils Vegas Odds % in a particular game they are often much higher.

The conversion from EU odds to American odds looks correct. The problem is the calculated Vegas Odds: In the TAM @ LAA example, the odds are -136 & 128 respectively; this should give win%s of 58% and 44%, for a total of 102%. If you look at bdevils sheet, these %s are 58% & 56% for a total of 114%.

Both teams cannot have win%s in the 50s when one team is laying and the other giving, so to speak.

LanceJ4 · 08-23-10, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by Mully85

THANK YOU bdevil for at least doing these tables so we can look at them and learn from them. I've been following this thread for the last few days and you all have some GREAT insight!!!

I couldn't agree more. The work done by bdevil, empty & Chaz to make this one of the most interesting threads on the forum is greatly appreciated.

-Lance

bdevil · 08-23-10, 08:48 PM

Thank you guys for pointing it out. I think i had some phucked up formulas within the table after a copy paste. Let me know if now it's ok, i will manage it carefully for the future. How does it look ?

bdevil · 08-23-10, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by LanceJ4

The conversion from EU odds to American odds looks correct.

Yeah, that's because i put them manually, don't use a formula conversion, i noticed that if i use a formula, the odds will be different than the ones posted on the bookmaker. Don't know why, but i decided to put them manually, so i'm filling them manually from sbr odds in order to be the same from the bookmaker and not converted odds through a formula which won't have coincided with the real ones. Anyways, it's about a small difference.

LanceJ4 · 08-23-10, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by bdevil

Thank you guys for pointing it out. I think i had some phucked up formulas within the table after a copy paste. Let me know if now it's ok, i will manage it carefully for the future. How does it look ?

Looks good. I have the same numbers.

-Lance

bdevil · 08-23-10, 10:16 PM

Good, hope TB Rays won't lose cause they weren't a system play, and don't want anybody hitting my balls for this.

So for tonight i'll count only the Giants.

Mully85 · 08-23-10, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by bdevil

Good, hope TB Rays won't lose cause they weren't a system play, and don't want anybody hitting my balls for this.

So for tonight i'll count only the Giants.

Great job bdevil!! Thanks for all the tables & insight!!!

EspBruin · 08-23-10, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by bdevil

Good, hope TB Rays won't lose cause they weren't a system play, and don't want anybody hitting my balls for this.

So for tonight i'll count only the Giants.

I was already on the Rays and Giants, seeing the system liking it helped. Oh well, hopefully it pans out. Keep up all the good work!

kyrie · 08-23-10, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by bdevil

Good, hope TB Rays won't lose cause they weren't a system play, and don't want anybody hitting my balls for this.

So for tonight i'll count only the Giants.

It's statistics not recommendations. The time and expense you provide is a wealth of information.
Flamming you would be just wrong!

bdevil · 08-24-10, 01:11 AM

23 Aug 2010

SF Giants - WIN

Today we had 1 - 0, up 1 unit.

Total balance : 14 - 4, up 8.35 units, 77 %.

bdevil · 08-24-10, 01:13 AM

24 Aug, the table from today has only one play, with the opening odds and existing Accuscore percentage. And that's WAS Nationals.

bdevil · 08-24-10, 01:17 AM

Thanks for the support guys, please note that we're testing here. Use your filters and inspiration over the match. Keep it up and best of luck today. At this moment i'm working only with the favs, if you feel you would like to test the filters for the underdogs, i think tonight's the night looking at the stats.

The dogs using empty's filter for tonight are : CIN and TOR. Won't count these cause i'm playin' only on favs until the system is losing its efficacy over the favs, i think empty has his own stats with the underdogs plays.

dizzy_7 · 08-24-10, 01:39 AM

nationals got spanked last night, lucky the juice was too high

angtank · 08-24-10, 02:32 AM

Accuscore Advisor Record since I've been a member.

8/17 4 Star 1-4 (3 Star 5-4

8/18 4 Star 1-2 (3 Star 3-4

8/19 4 Star 1-0 (3 Star 2-6

8/20 4 Star 3-2 (3 Star 11-4

8/21 4 Star 3-4 (3 Star 4-5

8/22 4 Star 1-3 (3 Star 9-1

8/23 4 Star 1-0 (3 Star 6-5

So after 7 days 4 Stars are 11-15 while 3 Stars 40-28 Total record of 51-43 54%

Useing my filters I'm 6-2 after 7 days as you can see on my thread http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...l-slow-p2.html

Mully85 · 08-24-10, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by bdevil

Thanks for the support guys, please note that we're testing here. Use your filters and inspiration over the match. Keep it up and best of luck today. At this moment i'm working only with the favs, if you feel you would like to test the filters for the underdogs, i think tonight's the night looking at the stats.

The dogs using empty's filter for tonight are : CIN and TOR. Won't count these cause i'm playin' only on favs until the system is losing its efficacy over the favs, i think empty has his own stats with the underdogs plays.

Sweet play on the Giants last night bdevil!!! Keep up all the good work on the tables. They really do help us all out!!

GoggsViggs · 08-24-10, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by angtank

Accuscore Advisor Record since I've been a member.

8/17 4 Star 1-4 (3 Star 5-4

8/18 4 Star 1-2 (3 Star 3-4

8/19 4 Star 1-0 (3 Star 2-6

8/20 4 Star 3-2 (3 Star 11-4

8/21 4 Star 3-4 (3 Star 4-5

8/22 4 Star 1-3 (3 Star 9-1

8/23 4 Star 1-0 (3 Star 6-5

So after 7 days 4 Stars are 11-15 while 3 Stars 40-28 Total record of 51-43 54%

Useing my filters I'm 6-2 after 7 days as you can see on my thread http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...l-slow-p2.html

Ang: Nice work. I tried sending you a PM but it didn't go through. can you send me the adviser report for Tuesday Aug 24? Thanks bro!

CatPulp · 08-24-10, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by bdevil

24 Aug, the table from today has only one play, with the opening odds and existing Accuscore percentage. And that's WAS Nationals.

Shouldn't Detroit be a play at -159 and 63% sim?
Also Texas at -135 and 62%?

Am I missing something or does the difference have to be above some number?

bdevil · 08-24-10, 10:21 AM

The difference has to be at least 7 % to be a play mate. DET has a difference of 3 %.