Accuscore MLB Pick System

[Sawyer]

GL Mate!

[Kraghen]

GL! I often check Accurescore stats, it's also great for the under/over trending.

[VTranX]

yay red sox win!

[VTranX]

8/1/2010
Florida Marlins -139 loss
Boston Red Sox -143 win
Chicago White Sox -143 win
New York Mets -150 loss
San Francisco Giants -116 win

23-10 +9.36x

[Salmon Steak]

good job VTranX

[Masu485]

how do u get these? do u pay for the service? or are these just based on the %s on ESPN previews?

[VTranX]

how do u get these? do u pay for the service? or are these just based on the %s on ESPN previews?

I have accuscore adviser for 30 days and just following one of there trends.

[VTranX]

8/2/2010
Los Angeles Dodgers -130
Cincinnati Reds -159

[bowtakwah]

woo good luck

[HayMan]

Nice thread VTranX, curious if anyone has any history on this trend system? Good luck!!

[kfranz31]

good luck am cautously following

[VTranX]

8/2/2010
los angeles dodgers -130 losscincinnati reds -159 loss

24-11 +9.06

[VTranX]

8-3-2010
Colorado Rockies -127
Texas Rangers -138
Detroit Tigers -113
Baltimore Orioles -115

[Ditaln1]

24-11 +9.06

Cincy won yesterday 4-0 against the pirates..

[CollegePro]

8-3-2010
Colorado Rockies -127
Texas Rangers -138
Detroit Tigers -113
Baltimore Orioles -115

that looks like tigers for game 2, right?? just wanna make it clear

[VTranX]

that looks like tigers for game 2, right?? just wanna make it clear

for game 1.

[VTranX]

aright guys, been fun. my subscription is over, bol to everyone.

[stc9357]

BOl to you as well!

[CHAZ]

Couldn't we figure out the side value ourselves? Just alittle math.

For example....

Reds are -170 so the Vegas win is 65.6%
Accuscore is 57%

Pirates are +155 so the Vegas win is 34.3%
Accuscore is 43%

How much side value determines a pick though?

SIM WIN % > VEGAS WIN % = SIDE VALUE

[CHAZ]

Here is todays.....

[HayMan]

Chaz,
Thanks for posting this, but need to understand what it is saying, how does this fit into the SV trend that VTranX was giving us? If the Accu. % is higher than the Vegas Win it's a bet? I think there is more to it than that?

[VTranX]

What's the difference between Vegas win and Vegas odd %?

and to be honest, accuscore isn't going to give a +175 underdog as a side value pick so there must be something off here.

[CHAZ]

Chaz,
Thanks for posting this, but need to understand what it is saying, how does this fit into the SV trend that VTranX was giving us? If the Accu. % is higher than the Vegas Win it's a bet? I think there is more to it than that?

I know for sure I have to be missing something here but thats why I posted it to receive help from everyone on getting the system down and maybe somewhat creating our own. Please feel free to correct my math mistakes too.


ACCUSCORE % > VEGAS WIN % = SIDE VALUE


Vegas odds.
Minnesota being (+135) is 43%
So for every 135 losses, Minnesota would win 100 times
100/(135+100)

Tampa is (-155) 61%
Every 155 wins, Tampa would lose 100 times.
155/(155+100)


Vegas Win %
61% + 43% = 104% (This is Vegas edge to make money off the bets)
We have to divide each team’s Vegas Odds % by the total of the two teams (104%).
(Tampa) 61% /(61% + 43%) = 59%
(Minn.) 43%/(43% + 61%) = 41%

[HayMan]

I think you need the Sim percent from Accuscore to compare, not sure if that is on their free site?

[CHAZ]

I think you need the Sim percent from Accuscore to compare, not sure if that is on their free site?

Thats the Accu. column. Sorry I should change that to say "SIM %"

http://www.thespread.com/accuscore/mlb-forecasts.html

[HayMan]

Looks like you have everything correct, but there must be some additional filters to apply. VTranX was only posting a couple of plays a day, maybe he can help with the filters?

[HayMan]

Looking back on the beginning of the thread he mentions 4 star picks with a better than 60% chance of winning. That would mean today's picks would be: COL, LAA, AZ, LAD. Let's see what happens.

[CHAZ]

COL, LAA, AZ, LAD.

On them!

[mizzoujohn]

shouldn't we be playing not strictly the games with highest winning %, say for instance a team has a 60% win chance but is -200, thats a -ev bet. But a team has a 40% win chance but is +200, that would be the play to make. Judging by the chart above, todays +EV plays are:

CWS
ARI
COL
LAA

etc
am I missing anything here?

[Pacok]

As Vtranx said:

The system is pretty simple. Pick there "Side Value" 4 star selections which has an accusscore grading of 60% or higher chance of team winning.

[CHAZ]

That's not accuscores "system" but we can always keep track of it.

[empty]

Some simple filters
7% diff (vegas»accu)
Dogs 50 or better +100 or higher
Favs 60 or higher Under -160
Min 9% +135 W
Col 17% -155 L
Cws 8% +117 W
Az 9% -135 W
Tex 7% 100 W
4-1 +2.97

chaz could you post the side value chart again. Thanks.

[CHAZ]

COL, LAA, AZ, LAD

Ouch! 1-3

Not how we wanted to start, but lets go on for alittle bit before we throw in the towel. No picks are guaranteed

[CHAZ]

Some simple filters
7% diff (vegas»accu)
Dogs 50 or better +100 or higher
Favs 60 or higher Under -160
Min 9% +135 W
Col 17% -155 L
Cws 8% +117 W
Az 9% -135 W
Tex 7% 100 W
4-1 +2.97

chaz could you post the side value chart again. Thanks.

Are these yours or accuscores filters? The chart is on post #90

[empty]

They are mine.