BeatingBaseball - 2nd Half Thread

[BeatingBaseball]

The +EV plays that jump out today are the Jays, Rays, A's and Giants.

The Giants and A's primarily on a very positive current team dynamic.

The Jays on both the team dy and the pitching matchup (love Cecil here).

And TB just on the huge team talent mismatch vs Balt.

Like all these on ML and to cover -1.5 for half the ML wager.

The price on the Astros is tempting, but the Hou team dy vs Cubs today reads pretty negative with Hou going down with their ace yesterday and the Cubs beating Halladay on national TV. The Cubs also have to feel great about missing Oswalt in this series and I always like the Hou lineup a little better vs LH pitchers (Silva has been a better than ave RH this year). Staying away here.

Have had Jimenez, at least for 5 inn, in every start this year and hate to pass on his start tonight, but doing so. Feel that Florida is coming on as a team and the Colorado bats on the road are so often cold. Of course, Ubaldo could shut them out, esp since the Marlins lineup is way better vs LHers than they figure to be vs a very top tier RH. Thought about this one long and hard. Pass. Wish the Rocks were playing a different club.

Have liked the White Sox last few weeks, but definitely staying away here simply because a collapse like yesterday vs a divisional opponent always spooks me - and no big stopper out there for them today. The Sox have been great when they have momentum and pitch, but not sure they have the balls as a team to quickly turn the page on yesterday. We'll see. It will be a test.

[BeatingBaseball]

Adding Texas 5 inn and full game for equivalent money.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Great post BB. Can't wait for the SBR community to welcome your posts.

[BeatingBaseball]

Great post BB. Can't wait for the SBR community to welcome your posts.

Thanks, Pair. It was your suggestion that brought me here.

[BeatingBaseball]

Monday's Results

The Rays and Giants were W on ML and RL.

The Jays and A's lost tight, 1 run games.

Texas a Push on FF, W for the game.

[BeatingBaseball]

Tuesday Plays

One of the challenges of the second half is always that you begin to know the teams so well that there's a tendency to have strong knee jerk reactions on every matchup - making it easy to bet too many games, diluting the efficiency of your best value plays.

That said, there are certain days when there's just a lot of real value out there and I don't like to limit myself to a certain number of picks. When you see value, you bet it. It's +EV - simple as that. And tonight happens to be one where I see a lot of value across both leagues.

Based on the currnet 5 Dimes lines, Tuesday's plays:

TB - ML, RL at 1/3
SD - FF and ML flat
FLA - FF and ML flat
METS - RL
HOU - FF and ML flat
PHIL - FF and ML flat
SF - FF and ML flat, AltRL at 1/2
TOR - ML, RL 1/2
OAK - ML
WSOX - -FF 1/2, RL

Wouldn't normally go against Jurrjens, esp with his coming off 3 wins, but SD +1.41, the toughest team to score on in the NL and winning 4 of last 5 overall is just too much value here to pass up. They've been excellent dogs all year (27-25 and +9 units) and Atl has won only 2 of their last 5 overall.

Marlins, as I said yesterday, are coming on - winning 4/last 5 and 6/last 10, plus they're 16-10 on yr vs LH starters. Coming off the dramatice walk off at home - plus Rocks' Francis has not seen the 6th in his last 3. Robertson has gone 6 in each of his last 3.

Mets and AZ are both running bad, each with only 1 win last 5 and 3/10 - but I see value in the Mets RL – AZ is just so fundamentally worse - AZ strikes out more than any team in the NL with almost 10 per game and are the easiest to score on, allowing almost 10 hits per game. Mets lost Dickey’s last 3 starts but he saw the 7th in all 3.


Lincecum is an easy value call here 5 inn and 9. Giants smokin', Dodgers struggling and SF over .500 and + money vs LHers on the year. Kershaw coming off a bad one vs STL where he didn’t see the 5th.

Right back to believing in WSOX after last night, esp with Danks going out there vs the lowest scoring team in AL. SEA is 9-20 vs LH starters and Fister coming off losses in his last 3. Run Line.

[BeatingBaseball]

Tuesday's Results

Disappointing night to say the least.

4-6 on games
2-4 on FirstFives
3-2 on RLs.

TB was the killer loss - not able to hold a 2 run lead in the 9th and spitting up another lead in the 12th.
First time the Rays have lost a game they've led after 8 all year.

The Mets comeback fell short, but the A's came through big time - as did the Giants, thanks to one of the headiest managerial moves of the year when Bochy took Don Mattingly (and the plate umpire) to school on what constitutes a trip (actually 2 trips) to the mound.

Only the Jays and WSOX/Danks came through with flying colors.

But no crying in baseball. We tee it up again today.

[BeatingBaseball]

Early Wednesday Play

TB RL -1.30

The Orioles pen has pitched 21 1/3 inn the last 3 days. Hopefully that will show today.
Plus the Rays know they have to keep adding runs to beat these O's right now.

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Afternoon Plays

All dog plays:

TOR - FF and ML flat
HOU - FF and ML flat
OAK - FF and ML flat

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Night Plays

MILW - Wolf - FF only
AZ - Haren - FF only
PHIL - FF and ML flat
WSOX - ML
SF - FF and ML flat

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Results

The early RL play, TB, a loser as Rays only won by 1 run.

Afternoon dog plays profitable as the 6 flat FFs/MLs split 3-3.

The night games a disaster with only Haren/FF winner - Giants FF loses 1-0 and WSOX blow 11th inning lead.

Painful. Two negative days in a row. 3 teams with great momentum - TOR, SF, WSOX - all hit the wall.

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Afternoon Plays

Grinding out a little dog value here vs two very public pitchers at home - first five and full game - taking +1.40's and looking for split with the two shots at each game:

SD - FF and ML flat
PHIL - FF and ML flat

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Afternoon Results

SD - L FirstFive, L Game
PHIL - Push FF, W Game

Net Loss .59 the value of one of the four flat bets

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Night Pays

MINN - RL only
TEX - FF only
SF - FF and ML flat, RL for 1/2
METS - FF and ML flat

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Night Results

4-2-1

Giants sweep three bets on Cain shutout
Twins cover RL on Pavno shutout
Mets lose both ends - out hit LA but get shutout
Rangers push FF

[gshock1]

Nice hits...

[BeatingBaseball]

Nice hits...

thanks g

Scoring runs has been like pulling teeth this week, but pitchers have been to form.

[BeatingBaseball]

Cards/Cubs - Pass

At first glance there appears to be value in Cards +1.47 today, but after pushing hard in the winning streak since the break the Redbirds are a liitle stretched and tired as was clear last night.

In the midwest heat, today playing nine days in a row with two more after this - and with Suppan out there anyway - the Cardinals may rest some guys. Don't be surprised if Molina sits today and they go with the backup. They may turn this one over to the baseball gods and go after the Cubs Sat and Sun.

Of course, vs Cubs, they may well get it anyway. But we'll pass.

[BeatingBaseball]

Friday Night Plays

COL - FirstFive and ML flat
MINN - ML, RL 2/3
TOR - ML, RL 1/2
CIN - ML, RL 2/3
WSOX - FF and ML flat, AltRL 1/2
SF - ML, RL 1/2

COL - Alway tough to go agains Halladay, esp vs a free swinging lineup that strikes out a lot - but the value here is Cook and his sinker, +190 though coming off 3 wins - while Halladay is coming off a bad outing, a loss to Cubs. COL scoring almost 5 a game on the year, 2nd in NL. Rocks just a hard club to shut down.

MINN - Duensing a lefty - Balt 9-21 vs LH starters. Plus Balt (though better than 1st half) is Balt. Nuff said

TOR - Toronto the better club. Marcum the better pitcher. Detr actually 2 gms under on yr vs RHers.

CIN - Reds a so much the better club and also the better lineup vs LHers. Reds, the #1 scoring offense in NL, owe Wood some runs after his last two starts 1-0. Hou lost in all of Norris' last 3.

WSOX - A little scary as A's playing very well of late and they give up so little scoring at home (A's home ERA best in AL at 3.0). Though Cahill having a better year than Buehrle, MB still the WSOX staff leader and stopper - winning pro - always like his value afer a loss, esp +1.25.

SF - Sanchez a strikeout pitcher and D-Bags strike out more than any lineup in NL. Sanchez also LH. AZ 6-14 on the year vs LHers. SF also scores better on the road than at home and AZ the easiest to score against in NL.

[BeatingBaseball]

Friday Night Results



MLs - 3-2 profitable
FFs - 1-1 split dogs profitable
RLs - 3-1 profitable

Hats off to Doc Halladay. For many years I never bet against him at any price and I should not have changed my mind. - 8 inn, 0 runs, 5 hits, 9 K’s, 1 BB. Still the man.

It’s never easy: After COLO goes down, MINN wins the hit column but comes up a run short due to one swing from Luke Scott. With TOR rained out in Detroit, things were not looking good.

Fortunately - the rest of the night - CINN, WSOX, SF – all went as planned.
(CINN scores 6 - Buehrle a CG 4 hitter - Sanchez 10K’s – and all three cover RL)

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday - Early Play

STL - FirstFive and ML flat, AltRL 1/2

Cubs had their day. Today they'll face the Cards' varsity w/ Molina back behind the plate and the full lineup.

Alt RL paid +200 on Buehrle yesterday, big value taking +170 Cards -1.5 today.

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday Afternoon Play

COLO/Jimenez FF and (FF -.5 run) flat

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday's Early and Afternoon Results


Both games go down - all 5 plays wiped out.

Cubs win the rookie battle - Colvin and Castro got the long balls off rookie Hawksworth.
I'd still like to play this one again +money. Cubs are playing better, but they did give us many chances to win. Cards out hit them and had more hard hit balls. Cubs' fly balls went out. Cards' were all sinking liners or top spin flies that ended up in the gloves of Byrd and Soriano. Offense at Wrigley can at times be a crap shoot. The really big play was the WP/error bottom 5.

As to Jimenez - another 7 run disaster in the 3rd - time to re-evaluate Ubaldo. Not in a class with Josh Johnson, Lee, Halladay, etc. right now Something wrong here.

Another frustrating start to a day. But that's beisbol. And that's why it's all about the price.

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday Night Plays

TOR - ML, RL 1/2
TB - FF -.5 run
FLA - ML, RL 1/3
BOS - FF -.5 run, RL 1/2
SF - ML, RL 1/2

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday Night Results

Very small profit (.7 of a unit) on night plays as:

TOR profitable on split
TB FF RL a 3-3 loss -1.10
FLA lose both
BOS profitable split
SF covers both ends to squeak out a total net profit on the night

Just not clicking so far in 2nd half. FLA gives up 8 in the 8th?


Patience. Winning comes in bursts and streaks. It doesn't come day in and day out.

Lying in wait is what the great gamblers do best.

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday Plays

4 games, 9 plays:

TOR (Cecil) - ML, RL 1/2
NYY - RL
MINN - ML, RL 1/2
SF - FF, FF RL 1/2, ML, RL 1/2

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday Late Plays

Adding:

TOR gm2 (Litsch) - ML, AltRL (-1.5) for 1/3
STL (Carpenter) - ML, RL 1/2

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday Results

Strong Day: 5-1 on the ML plays

Only ML loss TOR gm2 - blowing 5-2 lead bottom 8 and out hitting Detr 13-8.

SF and STL fail to cover fractional RLs - but TOR gm1, NYY, MINN RL winners more than compensate.

TOR (Cecil) - W, W
NYY - W
MINN - W, W
SF - Push, L .5, W, L .5

TOR gm2 - L, L .33
STL (Carpenter) - W, L .5

[BeatingBaseball]

Current Contests

BeatingBaseball cashed (5th) in the Weekly MLB Handicapping Contest - 7/15 which ended yesterday.

Congrats to CarolinaDaze, dherd, dufuss and havana. If only Bobby Jenks...


BeatingBaseball advanced to round 2 in the MLB Betting Bracket Contest, round 1 ending yesterday.

[BeatingBaseball]

Observation - ESPN Sunday Night Broadcast

You gotta like John Miller, but the broadcast team last night provided far superior inside baseball analysis of the game than the regular team with Joe Morgan doing the color.

The combination of Valentine/Hershiser was really outstanding.

Bobby V. is a better analyst than manager. And Hershiser misses nothing on the field.

[Ski powder]

Gr8 Post and Stats.Gave you points.

[BeatingBaseball]

To A Gentleman/Scholar

Gr8 Post and Stats.Gave you points.

Thank you, Ski. Much appreciated.

[BeatingBaseball]

Monday Night Plays

CLEV (Westbrook) - First Five and ML flat
TB (Garza) - ML and RL 1/2
MINN (Liriano) - ML and RL 1/2
WSOX/SEA (Danks/Hernandez) - First Five UNder 3.5


I have a feeling Westbrook steps up in a showcase start before the trade deadline. Yankees themselves may have some interest if he shows them something tonight. Also, notwithstanding the last 2 vs TB, the Indians have been playing much better. Tribe has won 7 of last 10 overall and Haffner is squaring up everything - 4 for 4 Sunday vs TB. Yanks have also won 7 of last 10, but only 1 of those wins was on road. Home value in this spot with 2 shots at a profit, 5 and 9.

MINN winners of 7/10, 4/5. Liriano coming off 2 W's - good performances where he went at least 7 inn.

Four of last five WSOX/SEA games have been UNder. Felix has given up only 5 runs last 28 inn. Danks 2 shutouts in last 3 starts. Weak SEA offense even weaker vs LHers (10-21). The bullpens may not factor in this one, but why take the chance - Under 3.5 for FF. Just get us top 2 at 0-0 and we should cash.

I was ready to take Haren - FF only - if he were to go tonight. But it looks like the Angels are back to Pineiro, deciding not to do what the Rangers did w/ Cliff Lee - running him out there as soon as he gets a uniform and locker.

[Ski powder]

Looks good..... on the Rays as well.ML-170

[BeatingBaseball]

Monday Night Results

Strong, profitable night as wagers go 5-1-1

Westbrook certainly did his part - 8 strong innings, only 4 hits. Haffner jacked one, but Swisher matched it for a 1-1 push of the FF. We take a 2-1 lead to the 8th, but one swing from Granderson and it's 3-2. Then the assassin Rivera = 1 run loss. No points for winning the hit column.

The rest of the night was right on script - 5 wagers and 5 wins.

Finally + money for the second half.