EP36's College World Series Workshop

[EaglesPhan36]

It's just about time to get it going again. The regionals & Super regionals were kind to the account balance, so let's hope to roll through the end of Omaha in the black!

I'm going to start out with a general preview of the entire field along with futures prices. I mean all of this to be a good source of information that will hopefully help everyone out. I'll post my picks along the way.

When narrowing down your choice for a National Champion at the College World Series, it is truly important to gauge which teams are going to win their openers. Why? At the last five College World Series, only one out of the ten teams left to play in the Championship series have lost their opening game. 9 of those 10 teams also won their 2nd game, so getting off to a good start is paramount.

http://www.cwsomaha.com/

OPENING ROUND

TCU-FLORIDA STATE
FLORIDA-UCLA
OKLAHOMA-SOUTH CAROLINA
ARIZONA STATE-CLEMSON

BRACKET ONE

TCU +600: Working against the Horned Frogs is that no team making its CWS debut has made the Championship Game since 1994 and no team making its CWS debut has won the whole thing since 1956. The plus is that TCU will match up against Florida & UCLA in this portion of the draw and they have the pitching to match those clubs and perhaps a better offense.

FSU +800: The Seminoles have plenty of core players who made it to Omaha in 2008. Their stay was short as they lost their first two games. These 'Noles have plenty of offense, but will their pitching be consistent enough to sustain a run here? Seems doubtful with pitching heavy TCU, Florida & UCLA in their draw.

FLORIDA +500: Solid defense. Timely hitting. Good pitching. That is a good recipe for Omaha success. The only thing that could keep this team down is their youthful pitching, but so far they have been solid around every turn.

UCLA +300: Probably has the best 1-2-3 rotation in the country and certainly in Omaha. UCLA though will be hurting offensively as their #3 hitter broke his wrist in the dogpile celebration after the Super Regionals. Ouch.


BRACKET TWO

OKLAHOMA +1100: This team is as good as any here in Omaha with plenty of power [100 HRs] and a pitching staff that seems to have really found itself in the postseason. From a darkhorse standpoint, OU fits the bill.

SOUTH CAROLINA +1000: Another team with pretty solid pitching and a good lineup. The Gamecocks lack experience on this stage, but if you can figure out who is going to win Game #1 with OU and SC, you might have a good start to getting the most out of a longshot future.

ARIZONA STATE +200: This is the only returning team from last year's CWS. History is the only thing working against the Sun Devils as the last overall top seed to win the title was Miami in 1999. Balance that out though as the last time a single team returned from the previous year's CWS field, that team - Oregon State - won the title in 2006. Both Oklahoma & South Carolina have the weapons to keep with ASU.

CLEMSON +1400: Offense is hot. Pitching came together when they needed it. The bad thing for the Tigers is their defense which ranks worst of the teams in Omaha, as does their ERA. Going against Arizona State in the opener is a tough task. They seem the longest shot of all 8 teams.

Be back later tonight to post up on my final futures choices as I firm them up. Will also probably have at least one play for Saturday's openers. Lines for Saturday:

TCU -210/-1.5 [-135]
FSU +175/+1.5 [+115]
O/U 10.5

UCLA -175/-1.5 [-110]
FLORIDA +155/+1.5 [-110]
O/U 10.5

[Peregrine Stoop]

interesting

[griffdog]

Going to throw some down on FSU in the opener. Yeah, the pitching matchup certainly doesn't favor them, but there are a lot of guys on the team that were a part of that 2008 team that went home early, and you can bet those guys don't want to be on the fast track for a repeat of that. Homerish, sure, but at +175, I'm gladly biting.

A Florida State-Florida meeting would be nice to see, but hopefully it's a meeting between two 1-0 teams and not an elimination game.

Tough to call in that half of the bracket, but I'm going to say it comes down to ASU and Oklahoma in the other half. After seeing how Oklahoma handled Virginia on the road, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sooners go all the way in Omaha.

Very, very excited for this weekend, especially with my 'Noles in the bunch.

[EaglesPhan36]

FUTURE #1: ARIZONA STATE TO ADVANCE TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES [-135] (2 units)
Yeah, this is the chalk but there are plenty of reasons to believe the Sun Devils will be playing the Championship Series. In a year full of surprise participants [somewhat] at the CWS, the Sun Devils bring experience and hunger to Omaha. They are operating under a new coach who has not missed a beat with this squad. The Sun Devils have a great offense and one that is not reliant on the long ball to produce runs. Seven regulars bat better than .300 with three of them batting better than .390. Rico Torres is the main in this lineup at .399. ASU also runs well with five players in double digit steals. ASU features Seth Blair, Merrill Kelly & Jake Borup as its starting trio. Throw in two dominant relievers in lefty Mitchell Lambson and closer Jordan Swaggerty and the Sun Devils figure to be tough to beat if they have a late lead. So long as ASU takes care of business in their opener and beats Clemson, I think the Sun Devils hunger to get deeper at the CWS plus all their intangibles will get them past an Oklahoma or South Carolina and into the Championship Series. They could fall short of winning the whole thing, but I think they will be playing for the title.

FUTURE #2: TCU TO ADVANCE TO CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES [+265]
Yes, this is my alma mater, but this is far from a "homer" pick. TCU got past the perverbial hump in beating Texas in the Super Regionals after losing to the Longhorns the year before. What was impressive for TCU was their ability to bounce back from getting slaughtered in Game 2 of that series to dominate and win Game 3. The Frog sport a dominating starting trio with much talked about freshman Matt Purke [14-0] set to start Game 1. He's followed by Steven Maxwell who actually had the best ERA of the starting trio and then the guy who shut down Texas, Kyle Winkler. The TCU offense is balanced with every starter hitting above .300. This is a team that hits for power with a school best 92 home runs, but also finds those gaps as they set a school record for doubles as well. TCU is in a tough draw with Florida State, UCLA & Florida but I think if they got off on the right foot by beating Florida State, they have the necessary tools to beat a Florida or UCLA. It may be a tall task to ask a first timer to win the title, but I think if TCU plays with the same fire they did in Austin last weekend, they will be among the Final Four teams playing for a birth in the Championship Series.

FUTURE #3: OKLAHOMA TO WIN THE CWS [+1100]
While Oklahoma will have their work cut out for them likely having to beat Arizona State at least once if not twice to get to the Championship Series, this is a red shot team. OU was impressive in their Super Regional against one of the top seeds in Virginia AT Virginia. OU lost a hard fought opener 3-2, then outslugged UVA 10-7 before demolishing them 11-0 in the elimination game. That speaks volumes about this team's talent. Their offense has perhaps the best power of any of the teams in Omaha. It all comes down to pitching for the Sooners. Bobby Shore has been stellar since the postseason began after a pretty average if not below average regular season. The Sooners have a solid bullpen too. If their starting pitching keeps them in games, OU could very well be the surprise of the CWS.

[Jasonal_98]

Thanks for the analysis. I'm leaning somewhat toward South Carolina, thinking they have the pitching and defense to stay with the Sun Devils on that side of the bracket. Should be fun.

[Jon825]

thanks alot for this. really helpful

[EaglesPhan36]

SATURDAY 6.19.10

PLAY #1: FLORIDA STATE-TCU OVER 10.5 [-125]
Game 1 should pit Matt Purke against Sean Gilmartin in a battle of the lefties as TCU & Florida State open this year's College World Series. Gilmartin was up & down this year with a 4.89 ERA, pitching well in his last appearance in relief in FSU's CWS clinching win over Vanderbilt. Purke has been outstanding this year with a 14-0 mark and an ERA just below 3.40. He helped hold Texas to a single run in TCU's 3-1 win over the Longhorns in the Super Regional. He gave up four runs/three earned against Arizona in an 11-6 Frogs win over the Wildcats in the regionals. In looking at Purke in his toughest start prior to the postseason, he was lit up for four runs in 2 IP against Fullerton State. The kid is a stud, but this will be perhaps the toughest offense he has faced. With the combo of Purke & Gilmartin on the hill, I do think we will see some runs in the opener - especially if TCU gets FSU early and gets into their bullpen.

[EaglesPhan36]

Total has sky rocketed to 11.5. UCLA-Florida dropped from 10.5 to 9.5. You'll probably see this with the Sunday games too with lots of movement on the totals. I'm thinking OU-S.Carolina will open at 11. ASU-Clemson could see 11.5 because of the perceived weakness of the Clemson pitching staff + two hot offenses. Let's go TCU!

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #2: Florida +150
The Gators and Bruins of UCLA will play in the night cap. Both teams are built around pitching and timely hitting. Bruins have the edge with starters with experience, but Florida's youngsters have not failed them yet. Sophomore Trevor Bauer is expected to start for UCLA. Haven't seen who will start for Florida, but they went with sophomore Alex Panteliodis to start the Super Regional and may do the same here. He dominated Miami in Game 1. I like Florida at the better price here as UCLA will need to prove it won't miss the production that their #3 hitter Tyler Rahmatullawho broke his wrist last week in the dogpile celebration.

[griffdog]

That over is looking good for you...already 3-1 TCU in the bottom of the 1st. FSU's wonderful pitching is striking again. This could be a long, long day.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 0-2 [-2.25]

Rough start. That over looked real good early, but neither team hit for crap with RISP after the 3rd inning. Florida played very jittery making a lot of dumb mistakes like wild pitches, hit batters, etc. Oh well, at least TCU got the win and that is a solid start. No totals for Sunday yet. I tend to like Oklahoma tomorrow over South Carolina, but not sure yet. Will wait for the totals first.

[mitote]

UCLA is a very good team! Even without Rahmatulla!

[rdo37]

I really like your futures bets, I saw TCU and ASU play earlier this season and they are going to be very tough to beat.

[EaglesPhan36]

6.20.10

OKLAHOMA +100
I'm going to stick with my original thoughts here and side with the Sooners today. This should be one helluva game. OU will send out Michael Rocha who has been very solid down the stretch as a starter after pitching out of the bullpen for most of the season. He went toe-to-toe with Virginia's best in Danny Hulzen in Game 1 of their Super Regional and gave OU a chance to win although they lost a tight one, 3-2. His 1st start of the season came against another SEC power in Arkansas. All Rocha did was go 7.1 IP and yield just one run. The Gamecocks of South Carolina go with their stud senior Blake Cooper. Cooper is 12-1 on the season and has been stellar in the postseason. Both starters are charged with stifling very good offenses today. Not that either team wants to drop their opener in Omaha, but I think there is more pressure on South Carolina by putting out their best pitcher today. OU has perhaps their best in Bobby Shore waiting for their next game. The Sooners have shown a real affinity for playing well on the road and coming from behind when they have to. Look for the bats of Cody Reine and Garrett Buechele for OU if they are going to have a shot today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Balls are flying out in this first game. Three home runs already. Total on the late game is at 12.5 for Clemson-ASU. May fall to 12 or the over 12.5 is plus money. Gonna watch how this OU-SC game pans out as the sun goes down.

[EaglesPhan36]

Balls now dying on the warning track, no major edge for the night cap it appears. Thinking about Clemson Team Total OVER 5. They've scored at least 5 runs in 9 of their 10 postseason games. Blair, the ASU pitcher, has had bad outings against power teams in Arkansas and Auburn this season. Not totally sold, but could be interesting to see if Blair bounces back from the Arkansas game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 1-2 [-1.25]

Righteous win for Oklahoma. Carolina loaded the sacks in the 9th and got a run, but flew out to end the game. 4-3 OU and into the winner's bracket. If Arizona State can get off on the good foot, the futures are gonna look strong so far. ASU-Clemson starts at 10am CT on Monday due to being posponed today, so we get baseball all day! FSU-Florida scheduled for 3:30pm tomorrow and then TCU-UCLA at 8pm.

[EaglesPhan36]

6.21.10

FLORIDA STATE +125
It's a bit difficult to figure out who was worse in their opener, Florida State or Florida? I'll side with the Gators though as not only was their pitching abysmal, but they made a lot of miscues like wild pitches, etc. that doomed them further. FSU simply ran into a buzzsaw on the mound named Matt Purke and one the Seminoles failed to knock him around in the 1st for more than a run, Purke took over. Today these teams meet for the 5th time this season. FSU is 3-1. They beat the Gators at home and then twice at neutral sites. Florida's lone win came on their home turf. Pitching match-up today is about even I think when you consider everything. Florida throws out freshman Hudson Randall who has been tough in the postseason, but was knocked around by FSU to the tune of 8 runs allowed in 7 IP against the 'Noles. FSU will counter with Brian Busch who has not been that great this season, but has fared well against Florida. Busch pitched 7 scoreless innings against the Gators in two outings. In an elimination game, neither squad will be afraid to use its bullpen and worry about tomorrow ... tomorrow. This should be a tight game and the experience of some of these FSU players may be the difference against a young Gators squad that may have shown its jitters in Game 1. Taking the better odds in a game that really is about a 50-50 toss-up.

No thoughts on the total at 10.5, although from what I have been reading there may be some afternoon thunderstorms and a wind shift that if I read the directions correct, could be blowing out by the time this one starts. Always keep your eye on this because Rosenblatt is a wind tunnel like Wrigley Field that when the wind is blowing out, the balls fly out.

[EaglesPhan36]

Clemson putting it on ASU right now, 5-1. Wish I would have gone with that team total idea.

[ZBOIZ]

Eagle take Florida and trust me on this one! Florida is a damn good team but UCLA is just awesome

[EaglesPhan36]

Dang. ASU looks like they are headed to the loser's bracket unless they rally big late in this one, down 6-1 now. Blair got beat up again today. Sticking with FSU Zboiz. Florida is a solid team, but I like a lot of the angles going today for the Seminoles, especially if they jump on Randall early. Will agree that if Florida holds them down early, the Gators will likely have a shot to win this.

[EaglesPhan36]

Clemson with the big upset today 6-3 over ASU. Sun Devils now battle South Carolina to stay alive. Sets up Oklahoma-Clemson. OU could make that future look sturdy if they can hold down Clemson. Tigers' bats are hot, although ASU did them some favors with errors today. Clemson had 14 hits, all singles. FSU looking good early with the long ball, up 4-1 in the 3rd. Still thinking about tonight with TCU-UCLA. Pitching match-up if Gerrit Cole, UCLA's #1 going against TCU's Kyle Winkler. Winner is in control of the bracket at 2-0, loser takes on the Florida-Florida State winner.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 2-2 [+0.00]

[trojanman]

Eagles you taking your alma mater here.....I don't need much reason to bet against UCLA but want to see if you are playing or watching....???

Light card tonight figured i'd throw a few bucks on it - !

[EaglesPhan36]

TCU +135
It's Gerrit Cole for UCLA. Kyle Winkler for TCU. Both teams looked comfortable in Omaha in Game 1, but UCLA was the recipient of some help from a jittery Florida club. Their pitching was as advertised and Cole is the real deal with a 3.25 ERA and opponents batting around .200 against him on the year. TCU sends out Winkler who showed great stuff in the elimination game at Austin that sent the Frogs to Omaha. He shut down Texas 7.2 and the TCU offense scratched out enough runs to pull out the win. Neither team is going to be scared of losing tonight as both have #3 starters ready to go if the lose tonight. Either Rasmussen for UCLA or Maxwell for TCU gives their team a leg up on Florida State who will be going to an all-hands on deck approach after playing back-2-back games. Expect a quality effort tonight from both squads. If TCU is patient early and works the count on Cole, they can manufacture runs. Cole's lone weakness during the season was a susceptibility to control problems that sometimes led to early runs. The Horned Frogs will need to cash in on any of that if they want to put themselves in the driver's seat in this bracket. Close to an even game again, so side with the better odds.

[EaglesPhan36]

Most definitely watching, just picked up a 12 pack on the way home from work.

[trojanman]

Thanks.....let's get it - good luck!

[EaglesPhan36]

No luck so far. Winkler just can't keep himself out of trouble. Gets in front of hitters and then lets them battle back and get hits that wind up leading to a run. Cole has been good, but TCU had some swings on him in the 2nd. They need to stay patient and Winkler needs to lock it down to give them a chance.

[teaserpleaser]

cole has been great

[EaglesPhan36]

Winkler has not. Oh well, to the elimination game they shall go. Pretty disappointed with the effort from Winkler. I knew Cole would be tough to crack, but Winkler threw like a putz tonight. Figured a guy who pitched in an elimination game on hostile turf wouldn't be overcome by jitters in Omaha, but he certainly did not have good location at all tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Going to be awfully difficult for TCU or Florida State to beat UCLA twice with the Bruins full rotation available for back to back games. Hopefully the Frogs at least get a chance, but I may have to take UCLA no matter what.

Record: 2-3 [-1.00]

[EaglesPhan36]

Froggies showing some guts, but still an uphill battle at 5-3.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lots of rain today, but it looks like there might be some windows to get some play in, but I don't know if they will squeeze it all in. Today could be a day to look at the OVERs. If the weather is accurate, it looks like the wind will be whipping out to left field. Total is just 10.5 for South Carolina-ASU right now. USC throws Sam Dyson who has been pretty iffy on the mound recently. Merrill Kelly goes for ASU. his ERA is 3.57, fairly high for this squad. Will check back on the weather in a little bit to see if any plays are appropriate.

[EaglesPhan36]

6.22.10

ARIZONA STATE-SOUTH CAROLINA OVER 10.5 [-110]
Weather forecast still indicates winds from the S/SE or S/SW during this first game and that is still blowing out. So away we go on the over in Game 1. It's elimination time and I won't hedge on ASU here by taking South Carolina. If the Sun Devils choke and lose their 1st two games in Omaha, so be it. Pitching match-up gives them an edge today with Merrill Kelly against Carolina's Sam Dyson. Dyson is where I start to dissect an over. He's either real good or real average. Lately, it's been the latter. In his last three starts, he's given up at least four runs. Kelly has been pretty solid for the Sun Devils, but has had some control issues. Not exactly a good recipe against a power team like South Carolina if they get runners on base. I think with the wind blowing out and the pressure on these teams to survive today, we'll see some runs. Expect one of these starters to get hit a bit early.

[crazymilkman]

thanks for all the write up