EP36's College World Series Workshop

Outhouse Tim · 06-22-10, 12:32 PM

Thanks for the analysis

I've got two similar futures. I have ASU -125 to get out of their bracket, and Oklahoma as well, but that is more of a saver play as ASU is the bigger one (2.5X play). They historically do not handle delays well (see Oregon State, 2007) and proved it again. I need them to get it together. My single plays are going much better, with Oklahoma a 3X play over South Carolina, TCU over FSU (single play), and FSU over Florida (single play,rivalry games require dog action).

Today I will take my stab at a totals play (1st one, scary), taking the OVER in the Clemson game. I will also play small on Oklahoma straight.

Good luck with the ASU total play over. I think S. Carolina can not hang with these at the CWS, and believe they were lucky to beat Coastal, who was the better team last week but got stage fright. I like ASU but do I give -300 in a game, or do I parlay it with the overs? What is the weather forecast for the night game?

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-10, 12:38 PM

Agree with your assessment of South Carolina. Coastal just doesn't know how to get past the Supers and should have at least made that go to a 3rd game. Gamecocks do have a good offense though, so if Dyson has one of his "good" starts they will stick around.

Scattered t-storms afternoon and night. Wind blowing out from the reports. Bad news is the first one could see weather delays again. Heaviest rain is forecast for about :30 to an hour after the start time for Game 1. I wouldn't waste money on the ASU moneyline. Pretty steep at -300 considering what you said about them and how they play with delays too.

Outhouse Tim · 06-22-10, 03:22 PM

Thanks for the info. I'm worried about playing any totals when weather delays are in the forecast, but we'll see how it goes.

Good luck.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-10, 04:16 PM

Well ASU is digging themselves a nice hole today. At least there are runs being scored. I guess in my mind the over today was a hedge on ASU losing in reality. Might as well lose big if you're gonna lose.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-10, 04:26 PM

Blood bath for ASU. 8-0 in the 2nd. So much for them winning this bracket. That future is shot. Gotta root hard for Oklahoma now at +1100. That would be a big boon to destroying the loss on the ASU future. At least the over can cash today I damn well hope.

Gotta think about OU-Clemson tonight. Favor OU with Bobby Shore on the mound. Total is 11.5. Balls may not fly quite as much as they do in the heat of the afternoon, but the wind will still aid them plenty. Scott Weismann for Clemson. He has a 5.09 ERA this season and got beat up a little by Alabama in the Supers for 4 runs and in the ACC tournament, Va.Tech got him for 6. He's like Dyson for South Carolina, can be very good or very poor. Against OU's power, he's going to have to be real good. Gonna chew on it for a bit, but will have a play.

griffdog · 06-22-10, 04:33 PM

Arizona State choking yet again when it matters. Few teams have the amount of talent they do year in, year out, and yet they somehow fall short without fail. Would've jumped on SC with their history of choking in mind, but I forgot the game was starting at 3:30.

Still early though, and if they can stop the bleeding and put together some runs of their own, anything can happen. Highly doubt it though, given what I've seen from them in years past.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-10, 04:52 PM

I think they're gonna need a transfusion.

Record: 3-3 [+0.00]

The OVER is cinched here. Probably gonna lose 2 of the 3 futures I made by Friday with TCU needing to beat FSU again and then have to beat UCLA twice. Gonna hope Oklahoma makes my longshot future look like Nostradamus, not Nostradumbass. We'll add & subtract those at the end as to not make my cry right now.

This doesn't even classify as a choke I don't think other than choking with a loaded roster. They're flat out getting their asses handed to them. At least the Clemson game was respectable. This is embarassing.

ZBOIZ · 06-22-10, 04:56 PM

UCLA is the best team I've seen in this tournament

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-10, 06:39 PM

OKLAHOMA-CLEMSON OVER 11 [-120]
Still waiting for the rain that is forecasted today, maybe it stays away. The wind is not however as it still is showing out toward left field at a decent clip of 10-15 mph. Oklahoma puts out their best starter from the last month or so in Bobby Shore. Clemson puts Scott Weismann on the mound. As I said earlier, Weismann is feast or famine. Lately it has been more famine than feast as opposing offenses have done a nice job of scoring against him. Weismann is not overpowering like Harman for Clemson and he is also susceptible to the long ball having given up 15 in 17 starts. This Clemson offense is red hot with at least five runs now in 10 of their 11 postseason games with a low output of four runs. Even though Shore is solid and on a roll, don't expect Clemson to stop scoring runs. OU should also find success tonight with their power bats looking for some yard work.

Outhouse Tim · 06-22-10, 07:50 PM

Hertiage had 10.5/-120, and Greek also at 10.5. Good luck tonight. Sure wished ASU had come to CWS with some pitching. UCLA looks much the best of the teams remaining. It will take a team's best effort to consistently score on them and also the staff top to bottom must be focused.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-10, 08:56 PM

This night game is already frustrating with runners left on base. OU had the bases loaded and got nothing. Clemson had 1st & 3rd with one out and hit into a DP. Pitchers are getting the big outs so far. Probably just starting rooting for OU to keep my future in line since the total looks like it's gonna be tough to crack and over if they don't start stringing together some things soon.

Thing that will be interesting is to see how having three days off effects UCLA. Obviously teams that win the 1st two games historically are able to make it to the Championship Series, but there have been exceptions.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-10, 09:32 PM

Shore can't find the plate now. 3 walks in a row and then a RBI single. No outs, still loaded. Chance to put up a crooked number for Clemson.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-10, 11:00 PM

Play suspended in the 6th inning due to weather. Clemson up 6-1. Play resumes at 3:30. TCU-FSU at 6pm CT tomorrow. Kind of sucks for the winner of this game because they are getting a day less of rest because of the delay, so their advantage over the team playing again on Thursday over South Carolina is a little less. OVER still definitely has a shot and OU has to feel good about this because they get rid of Weismann one would assume.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-10, 11:21 PM

TCU-FSU will be interesting. Frogs will certainly throw their #3, Steven Maxwell. FSU probably starts Jack Gast, but will be expecting to use multiple pitchers in short bursts. Price will be a determining factor. I expect TCU will probably still be a -160 to -170 favorite to open based on the pitching match-up. May be a hedge opportunity for me on the TCU future. Maxwell's last start vs. Texas doesn't look good because they lost big 14-1, but all 5 runs he gave up were unearned. Will wait for the lines.

And my Clemson-OU OVER is still pending after all.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-23-10, 11:51 AM

Wind report: Right now, they are WEST at 13 mph according to Weather.com. That is blowing out towards right. The forecast for the rest of the day is for sun, but has the winds at N-NW which would be blowing in. WIll update for the TCU-FSU game. OU-Clemson resumes at 3:30pm CT. 5Dimes is offering an in progress line on this one with OU at +4.5 for +150. Thinking about it.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-23-10, 01:43 PM

[In-Game Bet] OKLAHOMA +4.5 [+150]
Call me an eternal optimist, but the weather delay may be the best thing to happen to OU this entire tournament. Down 6-1 and really struggling all-around, the Sooners got the night to sleep on it. They get rid of Weismann on the mound for Clemson and get into a Tigers bullpen that can be had. I don't think Oklahoma is going to wind up with just one run, but the big question is can their pitchers shut down Clemson? I think they can do a better job. Clemson used a bout of OU wildness in the 4th for their big inning and have just five hits, four of which are singles. Not to say OU is going to come back and win this, but the Sooners have been an excellent comeback team with 27 wins out of 50 coming after they were trailing.

xyzky · 06-23-10, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

[In-Game Bet] OKLAHOMA +4.5 [+150]
Call me an eternal optimist, but the weather delay may be the best thing to happen to OU this entire tournament. Down 6-1 and really struggling all-around, the Sooners got the night to sleep on it. They get rid of Weismann on the mound for Clemson and get into a Tigers bullpen that can be had. I don't think Oklahoma is going to wind up with just one run, but the big question is can their pitchers shut down Clemson? I think they can do a better job. Clemson used a bout of OU wildness in the 4th for their big inning and have just five hits, four of which are singles. Not to say OU is going to come back and win this, but the Sooners have been an excellent comeback team with 27 wins out of 50 coming after they were trailing.

I like your thinking EP...Good luck to you.

Wilforth · 06-23-10, 04:18 PM

I'm on my FSU +150.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-23-10, 04:26 PM

Huge AB for Oklahoma right here. They already got two runs back, trail just 6-3 with two out in the 8th and runners on 2nd & 3rd. A hit here makes this real interesting.

ebbearsfb1 · 06-23-10, 04:46 PM

eagle you got a plan on tcu/fsu??

EaglesPhan36 · 06-23-10, 04:56 PM

TCU has the definite pitching advantage with Maxwel, but -170 is steep. FSU has an experienced squad of hitters. I don't think FSU's starter [Gast] will be around long, so it's going to be a bullpen parade. Wind will be blowing in from left or across from left to right. Didn't effect OU in this afternoon game as they cranked two long balls. From a side standpoint, I can't take one. I don't think FSU is a big enough underdog with the pitching disparity for me to bite. Total is 10.5. Think I'd think about the over before the under, because I just can't see TCU not getting to the Seminoles pitchers again and FSU will probably get some too. Not gonna play anything "officially" but the OVER is the thing I would like best. Side really could go either way. I'll just let my TCU future ride - good or bad tonight to see if they can get another shot at UCLA on Friday.

Hoping OU might scratch a couple runs across in the 9th to push that OVER total from when the game started, but by taking the inflated +4.5 handicap - I still come out a little ahead, so that'll work!

jhonnydanks · 06-23-10, 05:02 PM

C-L-E-M-S-O mother f*cking N!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-23-10, 05:33 PM

TCU-FLORIDA STATE OVER 10 [-135]
Screw it. Gonna make things interesting for me more so than just rooting for TCU to stay alive. Buying it down to 10 in case of a push because it might be close. Got boned on this one in the 1st match-up between these two when it looked highly probable after the 1st inning. Pitching dictates this again.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-23-10, 08:06 PM

Nice hit on FSU Wilforth. This sucker is over, at the least I can take some consolation in hitting the over because this one is gonna have a lot more runs in it than the 9 on the board right now. Another future biting the dust. Only one game on Thursday, Oklahoma-South Carolina. Would probably favor the Gamecocks because they should be starting their stud Blake Cooper again after he only threw 67 pitches in their opener back on Sunday. Plenty of rest while OU will be using the all-hands on deck approach. If SC is a dog, no reason not to take them.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-23-10, 09:25 PM

First, Landon Donovan. Now, Matt Curry. I cannot lie. Best sports day EVER. Sorry Wilforth, but f-ing A, this was one sweet ass comeback to this point.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-23-10, 09:58 PM

Record: 5-4 [+1.30]

Absolutely the greatest win in TCU school history. Wow.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-24-10, 08:59 AM

South Carolina is a -120 favorite. Oklahoma at -110. This will change as soon as a starting pitcher for South Carolina is announced. They have not chosen Blake Cooper just yet. And apparently are looking at a couple other options. USC's coach has said Cooper will be available, just have not said as a starter or reliever. OU goes with Zach Neal, sporting a 4.65 ERA this season. Winds are going to be blowing out 7-8 mph toward left-left center by game time supposedly. No total set yet, also guess that is dependent on the pitcher. I'm guessing 10.5 or 11.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-24-10, 09:59 AM

10.5 it is. Will have a pick when SC announces their starter.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-24-10, 11:57 AM

OU website says Blake Cooper, but no confirmation he is starting. Freshman lefty Webb is an option for SC as well and considering the # of lefties in the OU lineup, he may start with Cooper first-in if he struggles. Neal for OU. Pitched great in the regionals against North Carolina, got hit a bit against Virginia in the Supers. Hasn't pitched in a long time. ML is split at -110 right now. All money going on the UNDER at 10.5 [-120]. Interesting options.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-24-10, 02:54 PM

Official pitching match-up: Blake Cooper vs. Zach Neal. Still listed as a pick 'em at -110 each. Total has dipped to 10. Homework time and then a selection for this evening.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-24-10, 04:15 PM

SOUTH CAROLINA-OKLAHOMA OVER 10 [-115]
Even though SC throws their ace again, I think with the wind set to be blowing out some tonight and with the pop both teams have, I'll side with the over. OU's starter, Zach Neal, is allowing batters to hit .280 against him. He hasn't given up a ton of HRs though. Neither has Cooper, but the first meeting featured 4 home runs and then OU nailed two more against Clemson. SC had three more against Arizona State. Hitting with runners in scoring position will be a key as well, but all in all, I think we're gonna see some fireworks tonight. I'll ride out my OU future because it was a longshot to start, so if they win then it's alive, if not, the ride was good.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-25-10, 11:11 AM

Record: 5-5 [+0.15]

Crappy ending for OU as they blew two chances to put that game away and advance, but at +1100 it was a decent ride. Looking for later, almost 100% sold on TCU & Clemson today. Especially Clemson.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-25-10, 02:56 PM

Wind is going to be blowing out hard to left. May change my tactics for tonight as a result.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-25-10, 03:04 PM

TCU -133
Matt Purke vs. Rob Rasmussen. Power lefties. Neither gave up much in the way of home runs, Rasmussen with 9 yielded and Purke just 6. That should help them with the wind today. Where TCU may have the edge is with their lineup. They have just one regular lefty, Mr.Grand Slam, Matt Curry. UCLA meanwhile sports several lefties in their lineup who may have a tough day against Purke. I'm also a little bit of a believer in destiny and I think TV wants to see TCU-UCLA again with Gerrit Cole and Kyle Winkler probably slated for a rematch if they make it to Saturday. Rally Turtle!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-25-10, 04:37 PM

Tonight, Dominic Leone set to start for Clemson. Even though he is a freshman, he already has big game experience having started the Tigers Super Regional clinching win. He limited Alabama to an unearned run in 5+ IP of Clemson's 8-6 win. South Carolina is probably going to start with Jay Brown and then let the bullpen come into play as needed. He made 9 starts this year and gave up the 2nd most HRs on the team, just 10 in 50 IP. SC used a slew of relievers last night [5] to finish off Oklahoma, but only one threw more than one inning. Wind is not expected to die much by the 8pm CT start. South at 15-20 mph. which means straight out to left.

Picking through this one and watching the line moves, will definitely be playing one here.