EP36's College World Series Workshop

[EaglesPhan36]

Lefty Michael Roth will start for South Carolina. He's a reliever by trade this season with his longest stint at 4.1 IP this season. SC would be plenty happy with that long, but I expect if he gets through 3, they'll be happy enough with all hands on deck. Roth pitched 1.1 and gave up one ER against Clemson during the season. Tigers took 2 of 3 from SC this season and the lone loss was tied at 4 in the 9th before the Gamecocks broke out for 3 in the 9th to win 7-5.

The early going in this game is going to determine the outcome. If Clemson jumps on Roth, I think they will win with South Carolina being forced to use pitcher after pitcher and try to come back. On the other side, if Roth is able to be effective even just for 3-4 innings ... SC will settle in and it could be a tight game like their game with OU. Still thinking about a pick.

TCU up 5-2 heading into the bottom of the 8th. Go Frogs!

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 6-5 [+1.15]

[EaglesPhan36]

CLEMSON -125
The Tigers offense has been doing it via "small ball" in Omaha with just one extra base hit among their 20 hits through two games. What's to like about Clemson's offense? It's consistency. The Tigers have scored at least five runs in 11 of 12 games this post-season. The pitching which was the big question mark for Clemson has been solid in Omaha. They'll face a South Carolina team that has really had one big inning in three games in Omaha. An 8 run outburst against ASU. Otherwise, the Gamecocks have tallied 9 other runs in 29 innings. They have lacked the key hit for the most part with runners on base, something Clemson has done well at the CWS. Leone may be a little jittery in the spotlight here, but he doesn't have to be perfect. Leone will be charged with keeping Clemson in this game and letting the offense carry it from there. If Clemson can jump on Roth early, the Tigers could book their spot in the Championship Series tonight and get an addition day of rest over TCU or UCLA. I also think Clemson will find some extra base hits tonight, look for the lumber to be what propels Clemson.

[EaglesPhan36]

Clemson got completely shut down by the lefty Roth. I'd imagine tomorrow's rematch will also be close to a pick 'em with SC probably using Dyson and Clemson likely with the lefty Harman or they could go righty with Weisman.

UCLA would be expected to be favored with Cole on the hill again. Gonna be traveling tomorrow. Probably just ride the TCU future and hope for a miracle against a tough pitcher. But at this point, TCU could be the team of destiny here, so why the f**k not.

[EaglesPhan36]

Last two plays to try and make some cash for the Championship Series

UCLA TO WIN IN 3 GAMES: +195
SOUTH CAROLINA TO WIN THE TITLE: +240

The Gamecocks need the opener with their best pitcher [Cooper] on the mound against UCLA's best [Cole] for confidence purposes, but would probably still feel okay going against Rasmussen in Game 2 - though their own starter might be the bigger problem with Dyson likely only available for short duty. Could potentially call on Roth again, but that remains to be seen. In any case, I do think UCLA probably has the goods to bring the title home, but South Carolina is full of confidence right now and should be able to take at least one game. I think this strategy has a pretty chance of hitting on one side or the other and offers better value than taking UCLA to win the title at -300. If you're firmly behind UCLA, you could just go +195 to win in 3 and +117 to win in 2 for a chance for profit also.

Good luck whatever you decide.

[EaglesPhan36]

MONDAY

UCLA-SOUTH CAROLINA UNDER 10.5 [-125]
This seems pretty solid with the pitching involved here. Neither of these teams is allowing much more than 3-4 runs per game in Omaha. South Carolina has had trouble still delivering big hits with the exception of their big inning against Arizona State. 5 runs is their highest output in their other four games at the CWS. UCLA had two big games in Omaha, both producing double digit run totals. They scored 6 & 3 in their other two games. You can also get the alt.line at 11 at 5Dimes for -147 which isn't bad either. Neither Cooper or Cole gives up many HRs and the wind will be blowing in from left to start this game. This seems like it wall fall into the 7-9 run range to me. Just my two cents.

[EaglesPhan36]

UNDER hits on the SOUTH CAROLINA 7-1 win. Better odds ahead in the futures race for the Champion. Superb performance by Blake Cooper for SC.

[EaglesPhan36]

TUESDAY

Game 2 Report: Wind will not be a factor tonight, blowing in but only about 5-7 mph. Beautiful night in store. Two lefties set to duel. Michael Roth will go for SC. He pitched the surprise gem of the CWS with a CG, 5-1 win against Clemson. Rasmussen goes for UCLA. He got touched for just 3 ER against TCU in a 6-2 TCU win. SC has not done that well against power southpaws late in the year although they don't have a ton of left handed bats among the regulars. The last lefty they faced was Clemson's Casey Harman who held them in check with just one run allowed in 6 IP. UCLA's last battle against a lefty was TCU stud Matt Purke, UCLA lost 6-2.

O/U is at 10.5 again with -125 favoring the UNDER. You can get all the way up to 11 again at -150. UCLA is -160. SC +140. UCLA run line at -1.5 is +107. SC +1.5 is -127.

Right now, I'd favor UCLA -1.5. Better odds than straight on the money line. UNDER is probably the best option to me.

[Otters27]

Man Last night I took UCLA they had nothing go right for the pitcher. Should I unload on them again?

[ZBOIZ]

Eagles I also like UCLA to bounce back

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't know about unloading on UCLA. With two lefties it is difficult to gauge which team might be able to find the big hits tonight. I side with UCLA because Rasmussen has been a consistent starter all season. Roth obviously can pitch deep into a game and SC is probably just looking for 4-5 innings from him like they were last time, just so happened that he pitched a helluva game. Roth could do it again, but I'd bet that he fatigues earlier and UCLA gets a chance at the SC bullpen tonight. At least that should be their gameplan to make Roth work deep into counts.