Baseball is Back!
1) i aint no good at writing so excuse the bad grammer/punctuation. I'm much more math inclined.
2) baseball is my sport and have been successful most of the years. I am not a tout so i am allowed to admit I have had losing seasons but none in a few years (knock wood)
3) I am old school in terms of the game so I pro Double Switch and Anti DH. Therefore much more of a fan of the national league product.
Atlanta Braves Last years Record: 90-72
Run differential: +102 (3rd best in the NL)
They also tied for the best Road Record in 2018 47-34.
2019 Win total: 86/86.5 (+105) depending on where you look.
Division odds: +300
This division will surely be intriguing as you people are expecting 4 teams to all compete for a division title. That is if you actually think the Mets can. I was higher on the braves at the beginning of last year than most mainly for their over abundance of young talent. They return all of their core from last year and have mainly added Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann.
Pitching Staff is very young but very solid thanks to the addition to Kevin Gausman last year who has incredible stuff and managed a 5-2 record with a sub 3 ERA. Very impressive. Assuming Folty takes another step forward and add in a trending Tehran and Sean Newcomb, and a bunch of young guys like Touki Toussaint. You got yourself a pretty solid starting 5. Braves also have a ton of young arms that could crash onto the scene if they were to suffer an injury. Which is always something to consider when betting season long Win totals. 162 games is a ton.
The lineup top to bottom is plenty good enough to win the division again. Acuna, Albies, Freeman, Donaldson make up a very tough top 4 batters and then pencil in maybe the most underrated all around player of the decade in Nick Markakis. Markakis does everything well but nothing jaw dropping therefore he just slides under the radar year in and year out. I mean the guy does have more career hits than Willie Stargell and will surpass Edgar Martinez this year. And if you didn't catch much of Ronald Acuna last year i would say this don't expect too much regression if any. This kid is the real deal.
The part of this team that i am going to focus on is the Bullpen. Winkler, Minter, Vizcaino, and Biddle combined for 245 strike outs in 223 innings. All while carrying a sub 3.3 ERA and only walking 88 in that 223 innings. This is a huge part of this team that will be overlooked. You basically have a solid middle of the pen and 2 legit closers in Minter and Vizcaino. Which is why this team was 23-12 in one run ball games
Another aspect of looking at the win total is this. The braves won 90 games last year and Yes the division will most likely be tougher but factor in that the braves went just 8 and 12 in inter league play last year (against the AL East). This year they draw a putrid AL Central so expect the inter league record to improve.
With a very solid bullpen, a above average lineup, a solid pitching staff, and factor in the Braves draw the AL Central as the inter league opponents. I think this is a tight one that comes down to the wire but Give me the Braves Over 86 wins as these young kids on this team just seem to be scrappy as hell.
Not usually do you see a team with a +89 run differential only 2 games over .500 but thats exactly what happen to the nationals last year. Part of that could be attributed to the 4-10 extra innings record or the 18-24 record in one run games. One thing to keep an eye on is the nationals went just 18 and 28 vs Left handed starters. Like the Braves the 9-11 inter league record should improve drawing the AL Central rather than the AL East like last year. So on the surface it definitely looks like the nationals should improve despite losing Bryce Harper.
Pitching Staff- A big addition in terms of landing Patrick Corbin who seems to just be settling into his prime. This guy might be the most underrated arm in baseball. Everything has been trending in the right direction with him the last three years. Corbin supported a 1.05 WHIP and a 3.15 ERA last year. Without getting too analytical - Corbin's xFIP was 2.61 while his ERA was 3.15 suggesting he was actually even better than his 3.15 ERA. If Corbin takes any type of stride forward small or large LOOK OUT. This staff of Corbin, Mad Max, and Stras is going to be a three headed monster assuming Stras can stay healthy.
The lineup is solid top to bottom. Trea Turner, Adam Eaton, Rendon, and Soto provide a great core at the top. Zimmerman provides a solid veteran presence and If the Brain Dozier addition pays and Robles (the highly touted prospect) can chip in this lineup is going to be very solid top to bottom. Another addition that i like is the Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki additions. You add a couple of veteran catchers that can contribute offensively and defensively. Gomes is incredible defensively. It may not seem like much but a couple veteran catchers like these two can boost the club in a big way.
The bullpen- A solid closer in Doolittle of course. And Justin Miller & Matt Grace provided nice years last year. Rosenthal will be an x-factor. If he can return to form after the injury he will be a big boost to this club.
All in All I look for the Nationals to improve upon last years disappointing season. No Bryce Harper shouldn't be an issue. I actually think it could help this team as the spotlight always seemed to be on him and to be quite frank he hasn't been nearly as good as you would think given his household name. He only carried a 3.5 WAR (fangraphs) and posted a .247 average with a 24% K rate. He did provide power and drove in runs but it seemed like in big spots Harper always seemed to let the team down. I think moving on from Harper will be the best thing for the Nats. Assuming he doesnt come back which he still could.
The play for me and this mainly is based around the addition of Patrick Corbin is Nationals over 88 wins. This team is one of the better teams in baseball still and i look for them to be in a divisional fight with the braves down the stretch and eventually win it. Ill wait and hope Harper signs with the phillies and i can get a better line on the Nationals Win total Over shop for an 88 but either way i like it over! Its also going to be hard to keep me off that divisional price for them if i can find a +300 or better (again will wait and hope Bryce goes to philly). If the stars align with Brain Dozier, Victor Robles and Rosenthal this year i can see this team winning the NL East, NL Pennant, and World Series. After all-- Scherzer, Corbin, and Stras wouldn't be an easy out in a long series.
This years Win Total: 89.5 (-140)/ 90 . Now with the Harper signing.
Honestly I got exactly what i wanted. I want to back the Braves and Nats in the East and this signing is going to provide us with some value on those teams. Bryce is a tremendous player but he is a name brand item and an off brand product in my opinion.
I usually talk pitching first because good pitching beats good hitting i don't care what anyone says. But ill talk offense first.
Phillies have made significant upgrades - Cutch, Segura, Realmuto, and now Harper are all solid upgrades for the Phillies. Combine that with the country strong rhys Hoskins, along with Odubel Herrera and Cesar Hernandez. You have a pretty complete lineup. The Phillies lineup improvements will help them approve on their putrid 677 runs scored which ranked 5th worst in the NL. So Phillies fans should be excited for the lineup upgrades! Scoring should be a much easier task this year than last.
Pitching: Nola is a stud at the top and you cannot argue that. Arrietta seems to be slowly declining year after year for the last few years and quite honestly i expect that to continue this year. After those two you have Pivetta who actually performed much better than his numbers/record was so that is definitely something to watch for. Pivetta carried a 7-14 record and a 4.77 ERA. Despite having a 10.32 Ks/per9 and a 3.42xFIP. Basically what that is saying is Pivetta was miles better than his actual numbers/results last year. so look for him to possibly take a big step forward. Eflin and Velasquez are serviceable enough but i don't see them improving on last year at all.
The bullpen. David Robertson and Dominguez provide high K guys at the back end. Although Dominguez started to get roughed up towards the end of last year. that could have been fatigue or the scouting reports started to catch up with him. perhaps a little bit of both. And Neshek is a nice veteran arm that always seems to put up solid numbers. Victor Arano is a name to watch out as he quietly put together a very strong season last year. A duplicate season for him this year would go a long way in terms of how successful the phillies are.
Heres my thoughts on the Phillies. I think this team is "nice". I am worried about their starting pitching as i think Arrietta continues to decline which means someone else has to step up and Pivetta has to take a big step forward (which i think is likely). An injury to him or Nola could be a tall order for the Phillies. I was in love with Sixto Sanchez who was a big time Phillies prospect but they sent him in the deal for Realmuto. The Phillies could win the division and could win 90 games but i think its more likely that the young scrappy braves or the now under the Radar nationals win the division.
Even with Bryce i think its no Dice for the Phillies this year.
Last years Record: 77-85
Run differential: -31 runs
Last year the mets only won 77 games despite only being outscored by 31 runs. Also the Mets never can seem to get out of their own way. I think this year we see some improvement with this team. Robinson Cano and Jed Lowrie are nice veteran editions that should go along way in helping the younger guys. Also the acquisition of Edwin Diaz is a big boost at the back end of the bullpen.
2019 Win total 85.5
The mets lineup seems serviceable. It doesn't jump off the page at me but then again it doesn't need to with the starting pitching they have. Im a big fan of Nimmo and Conforto. But I do think this offense will be closer to the bottom of the League than the top.
I'll start with the Starting Pitching. If they can stay healthy I think this team improves upon last years season. But they have to have Degrom, Thor, and Wheeler at full strength. Wheeler looked to be back to the player the mets thought he would be last year. If he can build on last years second half of the year this team will have 3 top end guys! That is something to be excited about Mets fans! Steven Matz will also play a factor in how well they do. He was not good last year despite making a statement when he first came up.
The Mets bullpen should also be solid. They return Seth Lugo and Gsellman who have proven to be some solid versatile pieces. Diaz at the back is as safe as a closer as there is. Taking the pressure off Familia and allowing him to be the set up man. Familia is one of those guys that has the stuff but always seems to find trouble and can blow some games. But its the big leagues and that happens.
This team is all about pitching and staying healthy. I think the team definitely has the ability to compete for the division but I think injuries are inevitable and plus we are talking about the mets who always seem to falter. I think this year goes better than last but they still come up short for the division. As far as the Win total 85.5 seems a little high. I'm thinking about an under play just because of how tough the division will be but the bullpen and starting pitching plus the big time prospect Alonso might be enough to get them into the 86-87 win range. So for now its a no play for me
Last Years Record: 63-98
Run Differential: -220 runs
This Years Win total: 63.5
I'll lay this one out here right now. I think the odds makers whiffed on this one. The division as a whole has gotten much better than last year and the Marlins have gotten much worse. How the oddsmakers can hang a half game over last year is beyond me.
Instead of breaking down the lineup and pitching staff individually, i will combine them.
Both aspects are not good. With the Realmuto gone - Brian Anderson is about the extent of it on the offensive end around a bunch of triple A guys. The starting pitching has a few guys to keep an eye on but no one jumps out as making any kind of big strides forward this year. I do like the fact that they got Sixto Sanchez in the deal from the phillies as he is a guy that Marlins fans should be excited about.
But other than that this year is almost certainly going to be worse than last in my opinion. This team is rebuilding with a lack of materials. I would be shocked if the Marlins win more than 63 games. I expect them to be about as good as the Orioles were last year. This is a dead shot under 63.5. Now i just need to see how much money i want to get down on this play. This is one of if not my favorite play of the year!
The Brewers far overachieved last year IMO and mainly because Christian Yelich put together one of the more impressive 2nd halfs of all time.
That was last year and this is now.
Its unlikely that the Brewers repeat what they did last year but that doesn't mean they cannot compete. They bring back mainly everyone and still have that nasty back end of the bullpen in Hader, Knebel, and Jeffers. This division did get much tougher in the offseason with the Cubs returning everyone, the Cardinals loading up some key guys (goldy, Miller) and the Reds quietly putting together a nice squad.
This division & Brewers will see all the AL West teams in inter league.. The Brewers were incredible at home last year with a 51-30 record. I don't see that repeating. Interesting ---This doesn't mean much to me from a capping perspective but it is interesting. The brewers record in day games last year 28 wins and 32 losses. Pretty incredible that a team that won 96 games awas 4 games under .500 during the day.
From a pitching perspective i don't see this team repeating what they did. I think there bullpen will suffice but the starting pitching isnt enough for me. Jimmy Nelson is a big factor if he could get healthy he would change my outlook on this team in a positive way. But he is up in the air again this year much like last.
Offensively they return everyone from last year so i won't go into detail about who did what.
The main cap for me on this team is that they are due for some regression in several aspects. Expect the starting pitching to regress, expect the home field record to regress, and expect Yelich to regress from his 2nd half. Add all that together with a division that is a gauntlet you can see why the oddsmakers hung an 86.5 win total for a team that won 96 games last year.
This team is a no play for me as i have them projected to win 87 games.
Last Years Record 95-68
Run Differential +116 (20 runs better than the brewers)
This years win total: 89.5
The Cubs just missed winning the division last year in a wild finish to the division with the playoff game. Its no secret that this team will compete again this year for the division. But much like i said about the Brewers this division is a gauntlet. The "bad" teams in this league are supposed to be the Reds and the Pirates and which both have projected win totals in the high 70s.
Lester, Hamels, Quintana, Hendricks, and Darvish is an incredibly solid 5 guys to call your starting staff. I am concerned with Jose Quintana though. I though he would be a big time addition to this team but it didn't pay off in year one. His Walks per 9 went from 2.91 to 3.5 and his Ks/per9 went from 9.87 to 8.16. That is not a good sign at all in terms of command. Heres the big kicker for me why im worried about him. His Batting average for balls in play was only .282. If that would have been any higher he might have had a really bad year. Its only one year so maybe he rebounds but i will be keeping a close eye. Darvish returning from his injury plagued year could also be a big boost. But despite a staff that looks incredible on paper there are tons of questions with this team.
The Cubs have plenty of pop in the lineup and had a 4th best in the league .258 average as a team. Kris Bryant will try to rebound a bit as he had a subpar 2018 after two phenomenal years in 2016 and 17.
The win total. They must win 90 games to go over this win total. Could they win 90 games? absolutely this is one of the more talented rosters in the MLB. But winning 90 games in this division is a tall order for any MLB team. All in all i think this is a stay away no play for me. Im mainly concerned about the health of the Pitching and this lineup despite scoring 761 runs last year can seem to be putrid at times. Trust me i watch a ton of baseball. They scored a ton of runs but at times it seemed like they were one of the worst offenses in the league despite the metrics. This is an example of why i think it pays to watch the games. All the metrics probably tell you that this team will win 90+ games but i don't buy it and personally i think this is the cardinals division to lose. I actually lean to the under but for now its a No Play
St Louis Cardinals
Last year record: 88-74
Run differential: +68
This years win total: 87.5
The addition of Goldy is the biggest acquisition in baseball as far as I’m concerned. Somehow it’s all been about machado and Harper. But the best player to move teams was Goldy by far. Also another huge signing is the cardinals getting Andrew Miller.
Lineup: Goldy will help in a big way. And also will help the guys around him I.e Ozuna. The team was +68 in run differential and I expect that to be much of the same in 2019z. This lineup is sneaky good in a mix of veteran and young guys and now an anchor in Goldschmidt. Bader has been impressive in his young career. Add in professional hitters in Carpenter and Molina. You got a damn good lineup. Which is one of the reason I think the Central belongs to the Cards in 2019
Pitching:
The rotation is much the same of 2018. Which was enough to win 88 games. A big big big time factor with how far this team
Goes is Alex Reyes. I am very high on this kid who unfortunately has been injury plagued. He’s set to take the mound on Tuesday. If he can be part of the rotation with solid production this team will go over the win total and win the division.
The bullpen is anchored by Andrew Miller who is unhittable a lot of the time. And Jordan Hicks who throws 200 miles per hour. Besides them you some solid arms/role guys in Shreve, Brebbia, Hudson.
Win total analysis- as I said in the Cubs winning 90 games in this division will be tough but if there is a team I would favor to do it over the others it would be the Cardinals. They won 88 last year and have dramatically improved their team. I think has more than enough to get over this win total. Throw in a healthy Alex Reyes. And this team is the team to beat in the Central. Give me over 87.5 wins on the National Leagues version of the New England Patriots with a solid amount of confidence!
Last Years Record: 67-95
Run Differential: -123 Runs
This years win total: 79
Last year i was big on the Reds under. And it was rather sweat free as the oddsmakers missed big time in my eyes. The reds were -123 runs despite scoring more runs than the Phillies, Dbacks, and Pirates (all who won 80+ games). So the offensive production is there -- the issue is clearly pitching.
The Reds Starting pitching combined for a 41-68 Record and a 5.02 ERA. While only Throwing 838 innings. FLAT OUT AWFUL. Its the reason they were terrible bc the offense was actually very solid. The Reds have made significant upgrades to the starting staff. There are some questions with it still in terms of injury and production but there is no doubt this staff has gone from guys that were terrible to some veteran guys that have had success and a mix of couple solid young guys. Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Luis Castillo, and TBD (probably Desclafani as of now). Roark should fit the ball park well and he is a proven guy that can pitch. He does a great job of getting guys out via the groundball which is always a good thing when your home is Great American Small Park. Sonny Gray has been at times very very good. he hasnt been good for a while but i think you can credit that to injuries and playing in the AL East & Yankee Stadium. The move to the national league and with some health luck he could turn it back around for cincy fans. Luis Castillo is flat out electric - if i had to put all my money into a national league pitcher as if he were a stock from the stock market - He might just be the guy. This guy despite not having great numbers has it all to be a number one starter in the big leagues. He has it all in my opinion. A high velocity fastball that he throws with ease, the demeanor where he doesn't get rattled, and did i mention despite throwing upper 90s his best pitch is actually his change-up. Don't be surprised to see this guy in the Cy Young race in the future. maybe not this year but its coming as long as his health holds up. Also adding the veterans will tremendously help him and maybe take some pressure off him of being the guy and allow him to settle in.
The Bullpen isnt the strength of this team either but they do return Iglasius (a very solid closer) Lorenzen who seems to be getting better. And Amir Garrett and Jared Hughes who had a tremendous year last year. It does have potential. Also the bolstering of the starting pitching could help this pen tremendously as the bullpen of the Reds had to pitch more innings than 26 other teams last year -- they were flat out worn out.
The Offense despite being pretty solid last year has also acquired some up grades. Suarez & Votto at the corners. Peraza and Gennett in the middle. Then Winker, Puig, Kemp, Schebler in the outfield. And they also have top prospect Nick Senzel who hopefully will fit in some where. This team puts together a very solid lineup. Probably one of the better lineups in the league and seems to be going under the radar.
Win Total- the oddsmakers like this team as they set the line at 79 wins for a team that only won 67 games and is in a tough division. I'm torn on this team -- with a little luck and the right breaks pitching wise i think this team has an outside chance to compete with the big boys. I think they eventually fall short but i think they hang tough for a good while. And the reds improvements are one of the main reasons i lean towards the unders in the Cubs and Brewers. Call me crazy but The Reds at +900/+1000 to win the division has me thinking. Ill wait for now and take the Over as i think they are at least good enough to break the 80 win mark.
The Pirates Scored about the same amount of runs as the Reds last year. The difference was they gave up 126 fewer runs than the reds. Thats why they had 82 wins and the Reds had 67. The Pirates 2nd order win total was 77 showing they were probably a little bit lucky throughout the year. Then again sometimes baseball its better to be lucky than good. Check this out-- in the brutal Central the Pirates really thrived with a 43-33 record. While going 12-20 vs NL East and 12-21 vs the NL West. I doubt the Pirates thrive in the Central again this year as that seems to be an anomaly.
I played the Pirates over last year but I am going to go opposite this year, i think anyways. The pitching staff consists of Jameson Tallion, Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, Jordan Lyles, and Trevor Williams. Archer had a 4.31+ ERA but an xFIP of 3.75 showing he was quite unlucky. The one thing i am concerned with him is his dramatic drop off in K-rate. He was 10.4 or better in all of the past three years before last year and 11+ in 2017. In 2018, he was only 9.83. while his walk numbes climbed to almost 3/per9 innings. It is no secret that the Pirates have some promising young arms outside of Archer but there are too many questions at this point.
The Offense will start with Polanco on the DL. "El Coffee" suffered a bad shoulder injury and underwent surgery last September. His timeline was supposed to be 7-9 months but questions still loom. With him starting the season on the DL and questions on his health and how he will return i definitely can't take an over on this team. Hes one of the 3 best players on this team and with an offense that doesnt have very much depth this is a big blow.
Win total analysis: for now im going to wait. as i eventually at the end of this will post all my plays with unit amounts. I am leaning toward the under 77.5 for now as i think the Pirates are the worst team in a brutally tough division. As i writing this i think i talked myself into this under. No way this team repeats that kind of record in the Central with El Coffee on the shelf. I'll take the Under 77.5.
Last Years Record and Run differential: 92-71 and +194
2nd Order Win total: 106
The Dodgers won the division and out scored the opponents by 194 runs last year. More often than not they would have won a lot more games with those kind of numbers. 2nd Order win total of 106 when they only won 92 games shows that they were quite "unlucky" despite winning the division.
Additions and Subtractions: The Dodgers signed two significant free agents in AJ Pollock and World Series Wonder Joe Kelly. And they watched Matt Kemp, Yasil Puig, Alex Wood depart.
Its no secret the Dodgers are the team to beat in the West. There is only one team that could compete with them this year and thats the Colorado Rockies. The dodgers do have some big questions. Kershaw doesn't seem any where near ready and Corey Seager trys to rebound from a lost season. Seager does seem to be trending in the right direction and he was greatly missed last year. The kid is an absolute stud, he just has to stay healthy. Depending on how his spring goes i may actually be looking to back him in the MVP futures if the price is right.
When Dodgers are healthy they are the class of the NL. Kershaw, Buehler, Jansen, Seager, Turner, and Pollock are a really strong core. They have studs in every aspect of the game. Joe Kelly will give the bullpen a nice 1-2 punch assuming he continues his brilliance.
Win total analysis. The Dodgers should definitely improve their record from last year in my opinion. This is a no brainer over 93.5 as i have this team winning 96/97 games. Kershaw isnt what he once was but hes still pretty damn good. There are questions with his health but i think the Dodgers staff is deep enough to survive the time without him. The NL West isn't nearly as strong as the other divisions in the NL with only the Rockies that could upset the Dodgers for the division. The NL west does draw the AL East in interleague which i always factor in. Yankees, Red Sox, Rays are never going to be easy series this day and age.
with Corey Seager trending in the right direction give me the dodgers win total over 93.5 wins. I think we cash this one.
Last Year the Rockies gave the dodgers all they wanted down the stretch and then some. The Rockies carried a 2nd order win total of 87 last year. They cleared the win total last year by several games and bring back much of the same squad. I was high on them last year for the bullpen additions and surprisingly enough it wasn't the additions of Wade Davis & Brian Shaw that were the x factors. Instead it was Adam Ottavino who was dominant. Wade Davis struggled a little in terms of his ERA at 4+ but did nail down 43 or 49 save opportunites. Bryan Shaw struggled mightily with a near 6 ERA. Suenghawn Oh will have to help fill the gap of Ottavino. Which will be a big hole to fill as Ottavino was a huge part of the Rockies success. The Rockies did bring in Daniel Murphy who is a professional hitter and with some health luck could put together a nice season in that ballpark.
The Rockies Starting staff was very solid last year. They carried a 4.17 ERA last year which is good considering the home ballpark and they managed to throw 932 innings. More than any other starting staff in the big leagues. Which is a big bonus when your starters can eat innings and keep the pen guys fresh with such a long season. I believe in the Freeland, Marquez, Gray trio. Three young guys that can pile up the strikeouts. which you need strikeouts and ground balls when pitching in Coors field.
Factor in the division which the only powerhouse is the Dodgers. I don't think the Rockies can win the division but i think they have plenty of talent to scrap out 85 wins in a 162 game season. Give me the Rockies over 84.5 wins
Last Year Record: 82-80
Run Diff: +49 runs
2nd Order win total of 85
This years win total: 75.5
Looking back at last years stats and luck/non-luck doesn't do much for my capping of this team this year.
They have let go Corbin, Pollock, and Goldy. Their 3 best players and have brought in no one to replace them.
I didn't dive into this team much because it was pretty apparent to me that this was a no play for me.
The starting rotation in my eyes is okay especially with the top 3 of Greinke, Ray, and Godley. Greinke is a top end starter that is very well known at this point. I expect him to always give the dbacks a chance to win and eat 150-200 innings. Robbie Ray is a guy i have been oh so high on over the years as I am in love with his stuff. Hes a dominant lefty at times that can pile up the strikeouts in a hurry. The problem with him is he can pile up the walks too. He fits the modern day baseball game of walk of K. He has always had problems with throwing too many pitches per inning. A lot of times his game line might look like 5 innings 10ks, 4 walks, and 4 runs. After Ray you have Godley who won 15 games but did carry a 4.74 ERA last year. Hes not top end guy imo but hes a solid middle of the rotation guy that can help the right club. After that you have the mystery of Tijuan Walker who suffered an injury that required Tommy John surgery and Merrill Kelly a prospect who hasnt seen action in years.
The lineup is depleted without Goldy and Pollock. Expect the Dbacks to continue to sell off the rest of the pieces they have and continue down the path of rebuild mode. There is just too many questions with this team. Its a no play for me as I think they could win anywhere from 70 to 80 games at best.
The Giants were able to somehow win 73 games last year despite being outscored by 96 runs and having a 2nd order win total of 67 wins. This suggests they were very lucky to win 73 games. With the win total back at 73.5 i think this one is set about right and comes down to the wire.
The Giants have some promise in the rotation. Mad Bum, Chris Stratton, Desi Rodriguez, Suarez. Those guys all have some promise and a lot of the giants success this season will be based on how the latter three preform. The Giants have a nice back end of the bullpen as well in Will Smith, Mark Malancon, and Tony Watson. Three guys that other teams would definitely like to have on their roster.
The issue with the Giants is going to be if they can score any runs. Buster Posey and Longoria aren't the same guys they were a few years back. And Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik, and Brandon Belt are all nice players but this team lacks middle of the order threats. Its like a entire lineup of 2-hole and 6 or 7-hole hitters. No glorified stars in the middle that scare anyone.
Therefore i could see this win total going over or staying under. Its a total coin flip based on how the young arms perform in the Giants starting rotation that will determine what side wins on this one. A stay away for me for sure
Well Everyone knows the big addition of Manny Machado. A 26 year old that doesn't believe in hustling in the World Series. He makes this team a ton better right now but never in a million years am I signing a 26 year old guy that refuses to hustle in the World Series to 300+ million. The rest of the team is very interesting as it is loaded with young talent. Sometimes the problem with young talent is though you don't know when, or how long, or if - it will all click. If everything clicks sure this team could maybe contend for a wild card spot. But that is a big stretch in my opinion. The Padres have been bad for a long time and its going to take a few years but finally they might be headed in the right direction. 1. J. Lucchesi2. E. Lauer3. C. Paddack4. M. Strahm5. R. Erlin . Thats the starting rotation as of now in some order i would imagine. The bullpen has a trio of underrated guys as well. Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen and Adam Warren. These guys are good enough to hold onto some leads for sure.
I also wanted to note Padres were 19-37 vs left handed starters last year. Might be something to watch early on from a betting perspective.
I think the Padres are definitely trending in the right direction. Although i think it was a mistake to sign Machado as they should have let the young guys develop a year or two more then went and got your big names. Either way the Padres are definitely interesting now. Will they contend for the division? - absolutely not. Its the dodgers and the rockies for now. Could they go over the win total. Sure but they could go under also. Again another no play for me as i just can't trust the young guys until i see more especially the pitching.
And Luis Urias. if you don't know his name... well you soon will. He's a big time prospect that will likely have Machado playing third base again (where he is much more suited anyways). No play as of now
I have dug into stuff an excessive amount at this point I have all my notes written out on paper but do not have the time to type them all out team by team. I will post all my AL notes in a condensed section here shortly. I am more of a national league homer anyways. I will then recap all my preseason plays/suggestions on who has value and who doesn't for the divisions/awards/etc.
National League Win Total Recap:
Miami Marlins Under 63.5 Wins (3 units)
Atlanta Braves Over 85.5 Wins (1 unit)
Washington Nationals Over 88.5 Wins (1 unit)
Philadelphia Phillies Under 90.5 Wins (1 unit)
Mets - No Play
St. Louis Cardinals Over 87.5 Wins (1 unit)
Cincinnati Reds Over 78.5 Wins (1 unit)
Milwaukee Brewers Under 86.5 Wins (1 unit)
Pittsburgh Pirates Under 78.5 Wins (1 unit)
Cubs - No Play
LA Dodgers Over 93 Wins (1.5 Units)
Rockies Over 84.5 Wins (1.5 Units)
Padres Under 78.5 Wins (1 Unit)
Giants Under 73.5 Wins (1 Unit) Dbacks - No Play
American League Win total Recap:
Houston Astros Over 96.5 Wins (2 units)
Minnesota Twins Over 83.5 Wins (1 unit)
Detroit Tigers Under 68.5 Wins (1 Unit)
White Sox Under 75.5 Wins (1 unit)
Blue Jays Under 75 Wins (1 unit)
First off these picks for ROY, Cy Young, and MVP are not necessarily who i think is going to win. It is more about the value that is presented in the odds of these players. For example, Everyone in the world knows Vlad Guerrero Jr. has the best chance to win the AL ROY. But that doesn't mean you should bet him because he is -120 therefore provides no value. So lets dive in.
NL Rookie of the Year:
The two favorites - Fernando Tatis Jr. and Victor Robles.
Tatis has incredible raw power to all fields and plays the prime position of shortstop. He does seem to be overly aggressive at times leading to strikeouts. 109ks last year in 88 games in double A does scare me some for him moving to the big leagues for sure. There is no denying he is a stud and will have a strong chance to be in the race due to playing time on a padres team that will likely have Machado back to third base. However, I'm not sure when Tatis will be up and the fact that he is only +500 to win the ROY i just do not see enough value. However i wouldn't question anyone for throwing a few bucks on him.
Robles is a speedster outfielder for the Washington Nationals and isn't much slower than Trea Turner. Yes they can both fly. Robles will certainly be part of the Nationals outfield this year along side Adam Eaton and Juan Soto. This Nationals team is flying under the radar without Bryce Harper now. Robles will be an upgrade defensively and fill the void just fine. Robles lacks the power unlike Tatis. Robles may be the most significant prospect this year in terms of divisional races/NL playoffs but at just 3/1 with a lack of power i have to pass on him as well.
My Pick: Nick Senzel at 15/1. Of the three i have mentioned here he is the most complete player in my opinion. Hes in between power wise of Robles and Tatis. But should hit for a better average than Tatis due to his better plate approach and discipline. He doesn't have the raw power of Tatis but he does have some pop. He had 6 homers last year in 44 games along with a .310 average, 8 stolen bases and 39 strikeouts. Senzel is a very athletic baseball player that can play just about anywhere. With the recent news of Scooter Gennett injured i think this provides just the opening that Senzel needs. Senzel should be up shortly after the start of the season and in the lineup rather at 2nd base or outfield just about every day. I was somewhat rather shocked when i saw Senzel at 15/1 as hes almost just as highly as a touted prospect as Tatis and Robles yet compare the prices of Senzel 15/1, Robles 3/1, Tatis 5/1. Give me the best overall player of the three and an opening in playing time thanks to the Scooter Gennett injury. I think Senzel provides us with some serious value!
Favorites are a pair of sluggers with some serious raw power. Vlad Jr. and Eloy Jimenez.
Vlad Jr. I don't need to talk much about hes a phenom and everyone knows it. One downside is he will be playing in a division with some serious pitching and the lineup around him is well rather anemic. At his price of -120 i see no value at all. For one injury risk is enough to remove all the value on a -120 no matter how good the guy is.
Eloy Jimenez has some tremendous hitting ability. Between AA and AAA last year he combined for 22 homers 75 RBI and .337 average while only striking out 69 times in 108 games. At +285 i actually think he does have some value due to the steep price on Vlad. The White Sox fully believe in him giving him 6 year 43 million dollar contract before ever seeing him play an inning in the big leagues. I wouldn't argue with anyone throws down some money on him at +285. But again I'll shy away.
My Pick is a longer shot in Jesus Luzardo 20/1. I don't think he has near the chance as Nick Senzel to win the ROY but i think at 20/1 there is some value worth a few dollars. Luzardo is the 8th best prospect in the AL and was part of the Doolittle trade with the Nationals. Luzardo isn't a big fella but he has a plus fastball that can reach 95-98. He has tremendous control and a very solid changeup. The Oakland A's rotation is injury plagued which may allow Luzardo to play much more than most people will expect. In double A last year Luzardo posted a 7-3 record, a 2.28 ERA, 86 ks, in 78 innings while just allowing 18 walks. I think he provides some good value and should have a chance to win this award. If you want to get crazy throw a few dollars on him for the AL Cy Young at 500/1.
Corey Seager 40/1. The Dodgers are the team to beat in the West and perhaps the injury from last year and the Machado to SD hype. People have forgotten about the 25 year old Corey Seager. Prior to last year he put together two very solid seasons. And now at 25 years old he should just be entering his prime. Look for a solid bounce back season from an ultra talented kid. At 40/1 he provides too much value for me to pass up.
Acuna 24/1. Look I do not have to explain much on this pick. Acuna hit .293 with 26 Homers & 64 RBIS. He can run as he stole 16 bases and did i mention that he did all of this in just 111 games last year. Had it not been for the delayed call up he could have won the MVP last year.
Freddie Freeman 25/1. It probably doesn't make sense to back a pair of Braves but I'm not throwing down a ton of money on each of these picks. Freeman could be the best hitter and baseball yet doesn't get the respect he deserves. Hes always been flirting with MVP status and with a loaded braves lineup that should have no trouble scoring this might just be the year for him.
Anthony Rendon 30/1. Much like Freeman this guy is one of the best players in the game but seems to fly under the radar. Perhaps this is the year he gets out from the shadows with Bryce Harper going West. Hes just 29 years old and always seems to flirt with the .300/30/100RBI season. Maybe this is the year he obtains all those marks. Put that in with a division championship I could see Rendon winning this award out of nowhere.
Lindor 25/1. He plays in a weak division. Should be on a division winning team. and is 25 years old and seems to have gotten better every year. The number is simply to high for a guy with that kind of smile. Don't forget he had nearly 40 homers last year and 33 the year before. Lindor is top 5 candidate at 25/1 in my opinion. Oddsmakers are asleep at the wheel on this one.
JD Martinez 35/1. He would have won MVP last year if not for his teammate Mookie Betts. He probably can't duplicate his season from last year but the again maybe he could. He's a work-a-holic when it comes to hitting and hes almost a for sure .300/30 homer/100 RBI guy.
I doubt Betts replicates his season from last year. And if that is the case and Martinez does. Well hes plenty live for the MVP. At 35/1 too much value to pass up for one of the games biggest offensive threat in a big time market.
Vlad Jr. 100/1 & Eloy Jimenez 100/1. I didn't back them in the ROY department but i think they are worth some cup holder change. I don't like the fact they are both on bad teams but maybe one of the teams surprises or maybe they are just in fact too good to leave out of the conversation at the end. Or perhaps their respective teams will be so far behind in most games opposing pitchers will have no reason to worry about pitching around them and challenge them. Any way you spin it i think at 100/1 these two phenoms are worth a few dollars. They are long shots for a reason don't expect them to win --but hey maybe they make some noise.
Division Predictions: (Be sure to shop for prices as these vary a good bit from book to book) Also all my plays are to win 1 unit with the favorite and risking one unit with the underdog.
NL East:
Washington Nationals +290 (1 unit)
Atlanta Braves +415 (1 unit)
NL Central:
St Louis Cardinals +220 (1 unit)
Reds +1550 (0.20 units)
NL West: Its the Dodgers to lose i would suggest a play on -330 or better as i think it has value. But that being said the Rockies scare me enough to stay away. No play here
AL East:
Yankees -118 (1.5 units) They should win it this year.
AL Central:
Indians I suggest a play on -350 or better. The twins are only team that can compete and still i don't see them hanging with the Tribe long term. But i am not laying -350 on this only because it would be tying up money for 6 months.
AL West:
Astros -600 has tons of value in my opinion. Look i get it, people will say how could the astros have any value at -600? Well the number is short in my opinion. There is a reason that this teams win total is 96.5. I don't see anyone coming close to competing with this team. I doubt the A's can replicate what they did last year. That being said im not going to suggest tying up money on a -600 line for 6 months. But there is value there as i have the Astros between -900 and -1000 to win the division/
With the news of Chris Paddack and Fernando Tatis making the opening day roster coupled with the Nick Senzel ankle injury that has just taken place. If you are following along I would no longer play nick senzel. I would look towards playing Tatis or Chris Paddack if you feel you must get down on some action. I have already played my picks a few weeks ago so nothing I can do but hope.
AL ROY update:
Luzardo has also suffered an injury pushing his start time back. Again, I already played this so hoping he’s not out long. But I imagine they will be cautious with the kid and it’s something to think about before you tie your money up on him.
With the news on all this I would probably change my picks to
AL ROY: eloy Jimenez
NL ROY: Tatis jr
Opening Day Recap:
Nats first 5 under -105 (1.5 unit) Win
Brewers -105 (1.5 unit) Win
White Sox +100 (1.5 unit) Loss
Braves +170 (1 unit) Loss
Rockies first 5 under -115 (1.5 unit) Loss
Absolutley on fire in hoops as well!
All my plays are on tweeter. Dm if you need the handle. Sometimes I don’t have time to post via forum. And will stick to baseball only on here.
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MrOctobers 2019 Win Totals & Plays
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