MrOctobers 2019 Win Totals & Plays

[Mr0ctober]

MLB YTD 293-307 +9.40 units

[Mr0ctober]

MLB:
Cubs/Cards Under 3.5 first 5 +105 (1u)
Angels First 5 +205 (0.5u)
Tigers +364 (0.5u)
Royals first 5 +200 (0.5u)
Clevinger Under 9.5 ks +123 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Saturday
Mets -129 (1u)
dbacks -130 (1u)
Royals +280 (0.5u)
Pirates +200 (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

Friday:
Cubs/Cards Under 3.5 first 5 +105 (1u)✅
Angels First 5 +205 (0.5u)❌
Tigers +364 (0.5u)❌
Royals first 5 +200 (0.5u)❌
Clevinger Under 9.5 ks +123 (1u)✅

2-3 +0.73u

Saturday
Mets -129 (1u)❌
dbacks -130 (1u)✅
Royals +280 (0.5u)✅
Pirates +200 (0.5u❌

2-2 +0.61u

MLB YTD 297-312 +10.74 units

[Mr0ctober]

MLB Sunday:
Mets/Reds Under 5 first 5 (-120) (1u)
Ms/Os Under 5 first 5 (1u)
white sox/Tigers Under 5 f5 (1u)
rangers/As under 4.5 f5 (1u)
Royals +210 (0.5u)
Angels +440 (0.5u)
Pirates first 5 +250 (0.5u)

Parlay:
nats/cubs +150 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Mets/Reds Under 5 first 5 (-120) (1u)❌
Ms/Os Under 5 first 5 (1u)✅
white sox/Tigers Under 5 f5 (1u)❌
rangers/As under 4.5 f5 (1u)❌
Royals +210 (0.5u)❌
Angels +440 (0.5u)❌
Pirates first 5 +250 (0.5u)❌

Parlay:
nats/cubs +150 (1u)❌

1-7 -4.9u

MLB YTD 298-319 +5.84u

[Mr0ctober]

MLB Monday:
Orioles TT Over 4.5 (-105) (1u)
Orioles first 5 TT over 2.5 (+120) (0.5u)
Phi/Nats Under 5 first 5 (1u)
Mia/mets Under 4.5 first 5 (1u)
Cards/Dbacks Under 5 f5 (-115) (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Orioles TT Over 4.5 (-105) (1u)✅
Orioles first 5 TT over 2.5 (+120) (0.5u)✅
Phi/Nats Under 5 first 5 (1u). push
Mia/mets Under 4.5 first 5 (1u)✅
Cards/Dbacks Under 5 f5 (-115) (1u)❌

3-1 +1.45u✅

MLB YTD 301-320 +7.29u

[Mr0ctober]

Wednesday mlb:
Parlay: As/Stros -120 (1.5u)
Giants/Rockies under 4.5 f5 +100 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Last two plays were winnners

MLB YTD 303-320 +9.79u

We had a good season. Was far from my best but i cannot complain betting MLB year long and coming out ahead nearly 10 units.

and on a better note. TODAY IS PAYDAY for our win totals and division futures!! Not trying to be arrogant but WE ABSOLUTELY CLEANED HOUSE!! Very few losers as almost everything won!

Will Recap all the win totals here after bit and also write up a playoff preview for each of the first round matchups and if i see any value in the futures market! Good luck tonight if your betting Monday night football tonight... yuck.

[Mr0ctober]

WIN TOTAL RECORD FOR 2019: 13 wins and 4 losses for +11.55 units



National League Win Total Recap:
Miami Marlins Under 63.5 Wins (3 units) WINNER
Atlanta Braves Over 85.5 Wins (1 unit) WINNER
Washington Nationals Over 88.5 Wins (1 unit) WINNER
Philadelphia Phillies Under 90.5 Wins (1 unit) WINNER

St. Louis Cardinals Over 87.5 Wins (1 unit) WINNER
Cincinnati Reds Over 78.5 Wins (1 unit) LOSER
Milwaukee Brewers Under 86.5 Wins (1 unit) LOSER
Pittsburgh Pirates Under 78.5 Wins (1 unit) WINNER

LA Dodgers Over 93 Wins (1.5 Units) WINNER
Rockies Over 84.5 Wins (1.5 Units) LOSER
Padres Under 78.5 Wins (1 Unit) WINNER
Giants Under 73.5 Wins (1 Unit) LOSER

American League Win total Recap:
Houston Astros Over 96.5 Wins (2 units) WINNER
Minnesota Twins Over 83.5 Wins (1 unit) WINNER
Detroit Tigers Under 68.5 Wins (1 Unit) WINNER
White Sox Under 75.5 Wins (1 unit) WINNER
Blue Jays Under 75 Wins (1 unit) WINNER

[Mr0ctober]

Divisional Futures for 2019 +6.65 units


NL East:
Washington Nationals +290 (1 unit) LOSS -1.00u
Atlanta Braves +415 (1 unit) WINNER +4.15 units

NL Central:
St Louis Cardinals +220 (1 unit) WINNER +2.20 units
Reds +1550 (0.20 units) LOSS -0.20units

AL East:
Yankees -118 (1.5 units) WINNER +1.50 units

[Mr0ctober]

MLB Regular Season 303-320 +9.79u
Win totals: 13 wins and 4 losses for +11.55 units
Divisional Futures for 2019 3-2 +6.65 units

Tonight we have the playoffs. And tonight we have one of the most dangerous teams in the postseason playing as well. Just because the Nationals are a wild card team do not overlook them. They are Red Hot since the All Star break and have a very complete team. The one weakness is the bullpen. But if they can get by tonights game no one wants to see Mad Max, Stras, and Corbin in a longer series.

This Brewers team is the weakest of the 10 that made the playoffs in my opinion. After the Yelich injury they forgot how to lose up until that last series with the Rockies. Opposite of the Nationals, the Brewers strength is the bullpen. I mean not to go into too much statistical analysis but the Milwaukee Brewers won 89 games with a run differential of +3. That is really kind of amazing to be honest.

Now lets analyze tonights game.

Big focus for the Nationals is Max Scherzer's ability to go deep into the game. I mentioned the weak bullpen therefore the amount of innings he last is very important. And honestly Mad Max hasn't been his best since returning from his injury. However, there is no one more fiery and competitive in any sport than Max Scherzer. That kind of intensity can sometimes allow a guy to be over hyped and vulnerable early in the game. So if the Brewers are going to get him they need to get him early before he settles in.

The Brewers players are a career 26 for 143 against Mad Max and the bad thing is Yelich has 10 of those hits. The Brewers have two angles to win this game. One get a couple runs off of Max early while his hype meter will be through the roof. Or Two, get runs after he leaves the game.

The Brewers goal has to be get to later in the game being even or down a run. If that happens the momentum will be on the Brewers side and they could possibly steal the game late.

I won't go too much into the game tonight as i am not betting either side. I have the Brewers at a +160ish underdog so you could say i suggest slight value on the Brewers. But this Nationals team is way too hot right now and even with the weak bullpen they should still be fine. It could be one of those nights where they don't use the bullpen because Mad Max is just that good or they have Stras & Corbin and could go to either of them after Scherzer.

No Play for me. But will be watching every pitch! ENJOY THE PLAYOFFS!!! ITS OCTOBER!!!!!!

[Mr0ctober]

Well if that game last night sets the tone for the rest of October, buckle up!!

Tonight we get the second wildcard game in Tampa vs Oakland.

Lets dig in. Morton for the Rays has been incredible as of late. September stats look like this almost 30 innings 21 hits, 10 walks and only 9 Earned Runs. The Rays have won his last 5 starts. Morton has solid career numbers vs Oaklands big boys. Chapman 3/15, Kris Davis 3/21, Loreano 2/8, Canha 1/4. Olson, Profar, and Semien have had nice production against him on the other hand combining for 13/37.

Manaea for Oakland has been just as impressive if not more impressive since his return from the injury. Hes only given up 4 earned runs in 29.2 innings and struck out 30 while only walks. Another angle im keying on is the fact that most of the Rays hitters haven't seen much of Manaea. Which usually benefits the pitcher at least the first couple times around.

This game is likely to be extremely tight. I don't have and angle on the side. If i absolutely had to bet it i guess i would take Tampa just because they are +120 in what i see as a coin flip game.

I do have a play on the first 5 total. The number is currently dropping and i am seeing first 5 totals of Under 3.5 (+110) juice and some other places at Under 4 -115. I don't usually like playing bigger juice except in some spots and this is one of them. This game is likely to be tight and runs will likely be at a premium. The umpire tonight (Fairchild) is usually pitcher friendly as well . and lets hope he does a better job than Evertt last night . So for the first play of the 2019 postseason. I will take the Under 4 runs at -125 juice for the first 5 innings! good luck. Lets hope we get another game like last night!

First 5 under 4 (-115) Tampa v Oakland (1.5 units)

[Hman]

Best of luck

[Mr0ctober]

Live plays:
Rays +3 runs -117 (0.8u)
Under 9.5 (-120) (0.8u)

[Mr0ctober]

MLB Playoff Record 1-2 -1.861 units

First 5 under 4 (-115) Tampa v Oakland (1.5 units) Loss -1.725u

Rays +3 runs -117 (0.8u) Loss -0.936
Under 9.5 (-120) (0.8u) Win +0.8 u

[Mr0ctober]

Cardinals at Braves.

I try not to overvalue splits like this but Dallas Keuchel has been really outstanding at home this year 19 earned runs in 62 innings. good for a 2.74 ERA (compare to road ERA of 5.01). This will be a very interesting matchup as Keuchel has dominated left handed hitters this year. However, that won't matter much as the Cardinals have a Righty heavy lineup. its likely that Keuchel won't face a left handed batter until Carpenter in the 6th or 7th spot. Keuchel may have a slight advantage early as most of the Cardinals hitters haven't seen much of him. And also to add to that Keuchel has been very solid the first time through the order. As guys have only hit .217 against him first time through.

Mikolas has not been good on the road this year. He has been vulnerable against the homer also. He does not walk a bunch of guys which is key vs a team like the braves who actually walks a lot. Another thing to note Mikolas does have good success against the braves hitters in his career. Freeman is 3 for 10 with 2 homers, and Swanson has hit him well but other than that hes held most everyone else in check.

Based upon that i think the Braves get an early lead and find a way to win game 1. That being said i don't want to invest in them at -140 as the price is just too steep. I actually lean towards the over also but wanted an 8.5 so have to lay off. I may look over live depending on what i see early. But for now i will look elsewhere. I am going to back Atlanta to score first at +120. I make this closer to even given the points i made above.

Braves to score first +120 (1.25 units)

[Mr0ctober]

Feel like all that prep paid off!! WINNER!!

[Mr0ctober]

Game 2 no writeup:
Nationals +160 (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

May write up some later

Cardinals -118 (1u)
Cards/Braves Under 4.5 first 5 (2u)
Nationals +140 (0.5u)
nationals series +340 (0.5u)

Rays +220 (0.5u)
Rays/Stros Under 3.5 f5 -105 (1u)
Twins/Yanks Over 8.5 (-115) (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Thursday recap:
braves score first +120 (1.25u) Winner +1.5u
nationals +160 (0.5u) Loss -0.5u

1-1 +1u

Friday recap:
cardinals -118 (1u) loss -1.18u
cards/Braves Under 4.5 f5 (2u) Win +2u
Nationals +140 (0.5u) Win +0.7u
rays +220 (0.5u) Loss -0.5u
Rays f5 Under 3.5 Loss -1.05u
yankees Over 8.5 win +1.00u

3-3 +0.97u

MLB PLAYOFF RECORD:
5-6 +0.11u

Pending: Nationals Series +340 (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

This play loses more often than not but I cannot not bet the Rays at this price. this line is crazy.

Rays +270 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Add first 5 under 4 Rays/stros -105 (1.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

Hedging my nationals series +340 (0.5u)
Dodgers -170 series (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

Didn’t post in time but I’m on the Braves/cardinals over 8 (-115) (1u)

might show up live here in a few so u can still maybe jump on.

[Mr0ctober]

MLB PLAYOFF RECORD:
7-7 +1.61u

pending:
Nationals series +340 (0.5 wins 1.7u)
Dodgers series -170 (0.85 wins 0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

MLB:
Dodgers/Nats Under 3.5 f5 -103 (1u)
Nationals +0.5 F5 (-135) (0.5u)
Nationals +125 F5 (0.5u)
Nationals +155 (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

Nationals series +340 (0.5 wins 1.7u) ✅ +1.7u

Dodgers series -170 (0.85 wins 0.5u) Loss -0.5u

Dodgers/Nats Under 3.5 f5 -103 (1u) Win +1.0u
Nationals +0.5 F5 (-135) (0.5u) Loss -0.675u
Nationals +125 F5 (0.5u) Loss -0.5u
Nationals +155 (0.5u) Win 0.775u

3-3 +1.8u

Updated playoff record 10-10 +3.41u✅✅

[Mr0ctober]

MLB Sunday:
Stros/Yanks F5 Under 4 (-115) (0.5u)
Stros -0.5 f5 (-120) (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

My gut says stay off this game but my numbers say take a little bit of St. Louis Cardinals


Game 3:
Cards +115 (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

Should have stuck with my gut with my gut last night. Tonight my numbers say cardinals but im laying off. I just don’t want to get in front of this Nationals train.

Updated playoff record 10-12 +2.31u✅✅

[Mr0ctober]

Sometimes it feels good to know your gut talked you off your numbers. Glad I stayed away from that Cardinals play. Yikes

[Mr0ctober]

Washington Nationals:

Last Years Record: 82-80
Run Differential: +89

This years Win Total 88/89

Not usually do you see a team with a +89 run differential only 2 games over .500 but thats exactly what happen to the nationals last year. Part of that could be attributed to the 4-10 extra innings record or the 18-24 record in one run games. One thing to keep an eye on is the nationals went just 18 and 28 vs Left handed starters. Like the Braves the 9-11 inter league record should improve drawing the AL Central rather than the AL East like last year. So on the surface it definitely looks like the nationals should improve despite losing Bryce Harper.

Pitching Staff- A big addition in terms of landing Patrick Corbin who seems to just be settling into his prime. This guy might be the most underrated arm in baseball. Everything has been trending in the right direction with him the last three years. Corbin supported a 1.05 WHIP and a 3.15 ERA last year. Without getting too analytical - Corbin's xFIP was 2.61 while his ERA was 3.15 suggesting he was actually even better than his 3.15 ERA. If Corbin takes any type of stride forward small or large LOOK OUT. This staff of Corbin, Mad Max, and Stras is going to be a three headed monster assuming Stras can stay healthy.

The lineup is solid top to bottom. Trea Turner, Adam Eaton, Rendon, and Soto provide a great core at the top. Zimmerman provides a solid veteran presence and If the Brain Dozier addition pays and Robles (the highly touted prospect) can chip in this lineup is going to be very solid top to bottom. Another addition that i like is the Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki additions. You add a couple of veteran catchers that can contribute offensively and defensively. Gomes is incredible defensively. It may not seem like much but a couple veteran catchers like these two can boost the club in a big way.

The bullpen- A solid closer in Doolittle of course. And Justin Miller & Matt Grace provided nice years last year. Rosenthal will be an x-factor. If he can return to form after the injury he will be a big boost to this club.

All in All I look for the Nationals to improve upon last years disappointing season. No Bryce Harper shouldn't be an issue. I actually think it could help this team as the spotlight always seemed to be on him and to be quite frank he hasn't been nearly as good as you would think given his household name. He only carried a 3.5 WAR (fangraphs) and posted a .247 average with a 24% K rate. He did provide power and drove in runs but it seemed like in big spots Harper always seemed to let the team down. I think moving on from Harper will be the best thing for the Nats. Assuming he doesnt come back which he still could.

The play for me and this mainly is based around the addition of Patrick Corbin is Nationals over 88 wins. This team is one of the better teams in baseball still and i look for them to be in a divisional fight with the braves down the stretch and eventually win it. Ill wait and hope Harper signs with the phillies and i can get a better line on the Nationals Win total Over shop for an 88 but either way i like it over! Its also going to be hard to keep me off that divisional price for them if i can find a +300 or better (again will wait and hope Bryce goes to philly). If the stars align with Brain Dozier, Victor Robles and Rosenthal this year i can see this team winning the NL East, NL Pennant, and World Series. After all-- Scherzer, Corbin, and Stras wouldn't be an easy out in a long series.

Here was my Nationals writeup before the season. The bullpen was since revamped but i was pretty much spot on with everything else and Bryce Harper. Also had mentioned the additions of Yan Gomes & Suzuki who have been huge for this team.

not trying to congratulate myself (but i guess that is basically what i am doing). But i put a lot of time into these season previews and feels good when they are dead on!

[Mr0ctober]

Game 4:
astros +125 (1u)