Good idea keep it going... I think this system is down in the area of 40 units (appx)... Maybe set some rules as far as once a game goes to a "C"... obviously these four game series the risk becomes a joke with high juice... I seriously doubt anyone (or hopefully not) lost over 80 units on this series... But there was some pain all over the place... Books made back some cash this week...
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Good idea keep it going... I think this system is down in the area of 40 units (appx)... Maybe set some rules as far as once a game goes to a "C"... obviously these four game series the risk becomes a joke with high juice... I seriously doubt anyone (or hopefully not) lost over 80 units on this series... But there was some pain all over the place... Books made back some cash this week...Comment -
now that you mention it, there were 55 units risked today so that alone put it in the red
it may not be worth tracking anymore
if it went undefeated the rest of the way it would probably only be up a few units
may do a new record for the second half or mix it up with something new like nasty was talking about so it could legitimately start the tracking over from scratch
still would like to keep posting, but will play it by ear and see what the thread turns into over the next week or so
I would like to keep throwing my totals out there as well. May try to go back over the break and find all of them in this thread and get the official record togetherComment -
Start second half with a few adjustments...lower risk when entering a "C" bet I would go same thread...the number of viewers will attract everyone you need... Just start at 0-0 and come up with an adjusted system...Comment -
Quick thoughts..
Develop the system so it relies on a win in either the A, or B game....
Once it gets to C reduce or just try to get losses back
Just do an A, B, C,
Maybe try what that other poster mentioned today... Have a system 1 and 2.... 1 the largest fav...2 the second largest fav...
Keep bets much smaller... start with smaller units or just go with a half unit to start series...
MAybe as the week passes bold out the best ideas that come forward and group together... I will be throwing quite a few ideas forward next few days.... keep it going...Comment -
Good to see that you are going to keep it going. Hindsight is 20/20 but stick to the rules of going with the opening line. Tampa would have cashed your C Bet. Pitching changes create erratic line moves. I would only move off the favorite if a pitching change took place in that game.Comment -
Double does make a good point, we went against the system rules when we picked Texas for the C Bet. We really should of lost an A bet today with Texas. I say lets definitely keep tracking to see what happens. Maybe keep track of the system with the original rules, and also keep track of where we are at after the Texas mix up? Also start placing bets based on starting pitchers and not going on action to avoid those erratic line movementsComment -
Fav System Record
42-1*Comment -
I just checked out the latest RPI rankings and Texas has one of the lowest rankings as far as strength of schedule goes. Guess who has one of the highest? You Got It. Baltimore!! Not that it makes any of us feel any better.Comment -
I get that this loss threw the system back big time, but I hope noone bet that BIG on the play...
Have an idea for followers but wouldn't be an official thing though I guess:
Just double up the starting amount for the next few series to get some back... I mean the system is 42-1 that means a loss is very rare...
Would take you very long time to get the loss back, but if you double up for some series (and reduce afterwards again) it is likely that your're getting your money back.
Sort of chasing the loss of the chase system
But don't get soaked in there bc a loss with higher units would now fvck you up really bad!Comment -
yesterday I went 7 -1 guest which team loss. i had min, nny,mets,mil,bos,tb, cws, and tex. yes honestly. i bet all su and put all in a single parlay too. man if tex could hv won i would have double my mony last night. they really f me up big time losing to bal. I felt so bad althought i won nicely for the day, i took all the profits for the day and put it on Montreal cfl. emotional bet bad mistake. got luckly thought Mon came back in 4 th quart and won. I was thinking to fade tex against bos next week but dont know yet. see yaComment -
Not really much left to say outside of how shocked I am about what happened in that series. Tough way to end the week before the All Star break for sure. Well I tried to fight the urge to bet it but I just had to put a little on Texas.
It's too bad too because I was having a great week until this happened and I got killed by a bunch of other 1st inning bets on Sat. I've looked over the posts from the last few days very quickly and did see something about not playing the same team if it keeps being the high fav and losing. I guess you would then take the next highest fav......I have to say that sounds like a very good idea. When we do start this back up I will treat the next bet as a B just so I can get back a little of what I lost this week. But for now I'm going to enjoy these next few days of not having to worrying about any of this.
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Guys I would be very careful with hiking your unit amount bets up....this system went from being what 40 units up to 40 units down in one series... The problem is the massive favorites can lose three,,,four days in a row...rarely yes...but it does happen...
Also remember because this is the highest favorite...the odds are already very, very high and you will just about always be betting at a 1/2 to 1/3 disadvantage....Last edited by G's pks; 07-12-10, 09:40 AM.Comment -
There was a large amount of winnings and money people could not afford to lose lost on this series... Believe me I am sure some were wiped out... Every single bet you make you have to think you can lose as well as win... Say to yourself...can I stomach this if it loses?
If not back away...I have been on this board a few years and the loudest shouters are the biggest goofs... Some guy was screaming how he had five grand on the Cubs last night before they lost... I sent 2dabank a message laughing about it before game time just thinking the guy was a real unbelievale goof who was about to lose anyways... and he did..bet within your limits... I doubt his bet was real... but still...
A few other ideas seeing they were asked for...
Set your own cap what you are willing to risk, bet each series...divide it up in your mind based in this case on the fav being around a -250.
Know your limits..
Realize how easy any profit can be wiped out with this betting style..the only way to win is slowly not quickly....unless you time it out perfect...Last edited by G's pks; 07-12-10, 09:40 AM.Comment -
i have to wonder if texas and there pitching is getting tired, or will they pick it up in the second half.Comment -
Watch Baltimore go on a losing streak now, just to stick it up our you know whats!!!!Comment -
Enjoy the all-star break everyone. Time to reflect on what the HELL just happened and make the necessary adjustments.!!!!Comment -
Just some input on the fav system. Needs tweaking but I will for sure still be following.
I like the idea of taking the second fav if the first fav has lost both a & b bets.
Also starting off at a b bet after the break isn't a bad idea.
Inspired by Rev, I have started to track the +1.5rl. I have been looking @ the top 3 favorites each day and see some similar numbers to the -1rl top 2 each day. Using the same fav system betting we have been doing on the -1rl.
I haven't looked back that far nor do I really have the time. So this is all based on a couple weeks of numbers. I thought some of you might be interested though.Comment -
Moving Off 1st FAV
I'm new here so you guys can pay attention or not - won't hurt my feelings.
After the A and B bets I brought Tampa Bay into the picture to spread the risk. I think they were the second fave. I put an A bet on TBR and reduced the TEX bet to 1/2 and moved that amount to TBR. Sure I was gambling but TBR came through and mitigated my losses. Then, in a move showing my insanity
, I put a full D bet on TEX because I just did not see how they could lose that 4th game. All-in-all I ended the series with a -14 units.
If I had been following the advice of some of you I would not have made the D bet and would only be down a little. You know how it goes - woulda, coulda, shoulda. Anyway, D bets are no longer part of my plan and I'm not sure about C bets either. For a long time I've played the favorite coming off a loss when they have a good record and a top 20 pitcher on the mound and the other team's pitcher ranks lower.
A few tweaks here, a few there and I'm back in the saddle again. Thank God for a couple days off.
Have a great life,
BobComment -
some great input guys
glad to see everyone seems to still be upbeat and ready to move ahead
I really haven't thought much about tweaking yet, but hopefully will be ready to put some time into it after taking a short, much needed breather the next day or two
One of my initial thoughts was if the fav is over a certian amount (say -300 or whatever) then go with the second highest fav for that day. Palletize gave some good info on the #2 fav which seems to be as solid as the #1.
The other thought that jumped into my head had to do with sub .500 teams. Although we ended up winning the series', we still bet on the nationals and cubs a few times and I think they lost all of them. None of us felt good about the plays when they came up, but it was the play. What if they would have come up on a C or D bet?
anyway, need to concentrate more on these beers and relaxing right now rather than this
was a long day at work today
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I do not think the Cubs will be coming up as a fav again this year...they will be a seller... I would not be surprised to see three to five players go bye bye...
Washington yes with the flame thrower on the mound... you could do some basics like must be over .500, or go after the pitcher...must have a winning record...there are plenty of ways to filter things in or out...
And then jumping to the 2nd fav when a team does not clear your 2 to 10 new filters or whatever...
Also it is still a must to work on the money management...the system did not fail the money management did!Comment -
Hey Guys I just wanted to throw a couple more Stats your way. As I said before I have been doing a 6 game chase on both the #1 and #2 favorites of the day for the last 52 days now. Both chases have lost on the same day 10 times during that span. But only once during that span have they both lost on two consecutive days at the same time. As G's pks would probably tell you, the number 1 problem that most of us run into is the word called GREED! I started out with a 1300.00 bankroll beting 20.00 per unit. I found out the hard way that 20.00 a unit is just too much with that bankroll. On 6/7 Chase #2 went to an E bet and Chase #1 was at a B bet. With the high juice I got Scared and cut some of my loses. As it turned out the E bet woud have won that day. That is the only time that the chase #2 has went to E bet, and chase #1 just got there. It will be at E first game after the Break. Keep in mind that I do the -1 1/2 Run Line. Back to the Greed thing. If I would have just went 5.00 per unit and if the stats would have stayed close to the same through August I would could have been up about 1300.00. I will know better next year.Comment -
Upon further reflection, it occurs to me that we are trying to keep the integrity of our bankrolls and make a really good return on them in a very small window of time (a few months of baseball)...perhaps if we all keep working away at this system and sharing our findings ...we will come up with something that produces smaller returns than we originally expected...but it also, doesn't bury your bankroll along the way...for example...for those of you who are new...check out G's thread "The conservative chase system" ...he has a good money management system in place for conservative betting...
Let's face it...we are going to have some very weird situations while betting these systems...and we are going to have to make some tough choices from time to time about taking a loss instead of risking further burying ourselves if it all goes bad.
If everyone can help further develop this FAV system and put our heads together and come up with something in addition for basketball and hockey (we have discussed that topic before on this thread)...something that follows a similar mechanism to what we are doing here with baseball...then we stand the possibility of creating a "perpetual money making machine"...so while we are "fine tuning" the baseball FAV system...what if on the side... we also start to contemplate stretching this system from baseball to an almost "year round" system by incorporating other sports into it?
That way....we don't have to get rich overnight by trying to get even on every chase...we can design mechanisms to cut losses during a bad streak and as G said earlier in a post...money management is the problem with this thing...and I agree with him on that point...we know that we are going to run into long chases or terrible performances that make no sense from time to time....so we have to take that into account as an initial step in our thought processes...what would you do if the FAV system produced a 7 game loss streak in a row?...How deep are your pockets?....When does chasing something, turn into financial suicide for your bankroll?
I guess my point is this...
As G has pointed out periodically and practices on his own thread...play conservative and come out ahead at the end of the season...you may make less...but you are still alive and ahead when the dust settles...but what if the season never ends?... what if it just has pauses between breaks and lags while new sports start their seasons?... What if you aren't just betting this FAV system (or some variation of it) only during baseball...you are betting it all year round...then you could bet less and grow your bankroll at a more "relaxed pace" rather than trying to jam it into only the "baseball season" using this FAV system.
Sorry for being so long-winded...but I know that if we can get this "right"...it will be "richly rewarding" and "well worth the effort"
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Great points nasty, will work at this thing and get it right.Comment -
i wonder if the yankees will field there B team on thursday, as a reward to those who played in the all star game.Comment -
great stuff guys
I think we need to hold off on doing whatever it is until at least Friday and possibly as late as Monday to give us time to hopefully get it right.
I haven't had time to really think about anything yet. I will plan on putting some thought into things while I am working tomorrow.
let's keep the ideas flowing
we need to get a list started...Comment -
are u bet ASG using Fav System?Comment -
I am a big fan of not betting a sub .500 team even if they are -300. Yes Washington has that flame thrower, but he gets no run support what so ever. I also think we need to stick to opening lines and not take action bets. Place a cancel on the bet if there is a last minute pitcher change. Just my two cents. I'm glad we are going to stick this out. Live and learn I guess, but if we can come up with some good ideas I think we could end the season near the break even point, and be primed for next season. Also I agree with balls2wall we should wait till Monday to allow the players to settle back in from the breakLast edited by DustyDiamond; 07-13-10, 05:56 PM.Comment -
I agree with the settling back in part and i felt uneasy about the last week heading into the break for the same reason
the main reason I want to wait until the weekend or Monday though is so we are not rushing the guidelines for the new system
I will prolly post the original fav system plays and track them for the second half, but not keep up with the units. I will just be doing wins and losses and on what bet it wins. It will either go undefeated and be up the same amount of units as the number of wins or it will lose a series and be down. Everyone should be able to figure out the units to risk etc... on each bet at this point...
edit...
if anyone wants to do the full tracking like I did on the original FAV system for the second half please feel free to do so.
If I am going to be posting the new system as well I don't want to commit to doing the full monty on the original one. If we do a new system and I do the tracking it will be the full stats like before. My time is limited...Last edited by balls2wall; 07-13-10, 07:09 PM.Comment -
I'm with ya balls2wall we can just track the record and what team the bet would be for the original one, but people can use the calculator and figure out the units.Comment
