I wanted to post up about a slight change in the money management system that I am debating right now. This weekend with the Brewers made me realize that every C bet we eventually come to is going to make us want to freeze in our tracks and really question the play. If todays game would have been at home, I would have made the bet regardless, but I would still be pretty uneasy with all that would be risked!
So after looking at our results so far, it is clearly evident that most of our wins are coming by more that 1 run. With that in mind, I am seriously debating the option of playing every A bet on the -1 RL, and then evaluating the next 2 games as they come.
Here is my reasoning: By betting game 1 on the -1 RL, we are greatly reducing the juice on the first game of the series, so if we have to play a B or C bet, we will be looking at having to risk less units to win the same amount. It is clear that the importance in a chase system is money management and making sure you stay in the game for the entire season, so with that said, today I did not pull the trigger on the Brewers because I would rather control my bankroll and know for a fact that I can stomach an 8 unit loss instead of having to risk another 9 units and have the potential of losing 17 units. The fact is there will be alot of C bets come up during the year. If we figure to have close to 200 plays on the year, you have to figure you will have a large a number of C bets arise, and I dont want to always be in this situation.
So...If I can bet the A game on the -1 RL and have very similar results, but have much lower risk...that looks good to me.
Now the drawback to this is clear: there will be games where our favored team wins by 1 run giving us a push, but also ensuring that they do not get swept in their series. So this somewhat goes against my original system. BUT...if you are okay with losing a few wins in the effort to keep you C bets more reasonable, I think that may be a worthwhile tradeoff.
Thoughts?
So after looking at our results so far, it is clearly evident that most of our wins are coming by more that 1 run. With that in mind, I am seriously debating the option of playing every A bet on the -1 RL, and then evaluating the next 2 games as they come.
Here is my reasoning: By betting game 1 on the -1 RL, we are greatly reducing the juice on the first game of the series, so if we have to play a B or C bet, we will be looking at having to risk less units to win the same amount. It is clear that the importance in a chase system is money management and making sure you stay in the game for the entire season, so with that said, today I did not pull the trigger on the Brewers because I would rather control my bankroll and know for a fact that I can stomach an 8 unit loss instead of having to risk another 9 units and have the potential of losing 17 units. The fact is there will be alot of C bets come up during the year. If we figure to have close to 200 plays on the year, you have to figure you will have a large a number of C bets arise, and I dont want to always be in this situation.
So...If I can bet the A game on the -1 RL and have very similar results, but have much lower risk...that looks good to me.
Now the drawback to this is clear: there will be games where our favored team wins by 1 run giving us a push, but also ensuring that they do not get swept in their series. So this somewhat goes against my original system. BUT...if you are okay with losing a few wins in the effort to keep you C bets more reasonable, I think that may be a worthwhile tradeoff.
Thoughts?
